ISRAEL & AMERICA V. IRAN: SCENARIOS

1. The War That Did Not End In A Week

The starting assumption in Western commentary was simple. Israel and the United States would strike Iran decapitating its leadership and taking out its military facilities. In the midst of such chaos the Iranian people would rise up against the system and some form of government friendly to the United States would follow. 

Instead the opposite appears to have happened.The regime continues to function, Iranian forces focusing on the destruction of Israeli and American bases throughout the region and are knocking out ISR facilities. 

The expected rapid regime collapse did not occur and instead energy prices are on their way to doubling and in place of a short war there is now the expectation that the war could go on for many months if not years.

Historically this outcome should not surprise us. Precision strikes rarely end wars. They often trigger the opposite reaction - nationalism and resistance.

This is what some military theorists describe as the “smart bomb trap”: technological superiority encourages leaders to believe wars can be won quickly from the air.

The reality is usually escalation.

• Smart bomb trap – the belief that precision technology allows wars to be won quickly without large scale escalation or occupation.

Sources

Robert Pape – University of Chicago
https://political-science.uchicago.edu

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2. The Oil Market – The Real Time War Indicator

Take and interpret official statistics to penetrate the fog of war. Financial markets often reveal what official statements conceal. In the 1991 Gulf War, oil prices collapsed when the bombing began because traders expected a rapid victory. In the 2003 Iraq invasion, oil prices also fell once the attack started.The market believed both wars would be short. But today the opposite is happening. Oil prices are rising sharply, traders are pricing in disruption rather than resolution.

The most obvious reason is the Strait of Hormuz. Around 20 percent of global oil supply passes through this narrow channel between Iran and the Arabian Peninsula. Closing it does not require a full naval blockade, it can be done by a pickup truck or two camels carrying heavy artillery on the back. Certainly, drone attacks on tankers, mines or small boat attacks, insurers withdrawing coverage, shipping companies refusing to enter the area... It is easily done and there is little that America or Israel can do to stop this and bear in mind that this would stop the flow of oil and LNG down the Persian Gulf, but equally it would stop the flow of vital imports up to the gulf states themselves. 

The Nature of Gulf Kingdoms 

Remember these gulf states are figments of the Western imagination, temporary, recently created, tiny "monarchies" where a local chief with Western backing called himself King and his fort became a palace. 

They were created on the littoral fringe of a vast and timeless ever-churning desert. They are wholy artificial places where you can go make huge amounts of money, pay no taxes and live in complete security (you thought), but they're also places that have no real independent existence at all, they rely entirely on the outside world, oil and the dollar. They produce nothing except oil and fresh water from desalination plants, for everything else they must import. 

Their purpose is to protect the extraction of oil and its delivery down the sea lanes to global markets. Neither the kingdoms nor the families running them were expected or built to last very long. 

The deal was oil contracts priced in dollars in exchange for American protection. The income is invested back into American treasuries which allows America to continue its debt-based economic existence. 

The kings surely cannot be surprised that if America uses its bases to attack Iran, that Iran should in return attempt to obliterate those bases. 

• Strategic chokepoint – a narrow geographic passage controlling critical trade or military movement.

Sources

US Energy Information Administration
https://www.eia.gov

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3. The Economic Domino Effect

Energy shocks historically trigger economic crises. Oil flows through Hormuz are disrupted, resulting in global oil prices surging, energy importers face rising inflation, central banks are likely to put interest rate cuts on hold, economies seize up. 

The result is likely to be stagflation. Europe is particularly vulnerable because already Russian gas supplies have been cut off, Germany has closed nuclear power plants against the backdrop of high energy import dependency. 

A prolonged oil shock therefore risks pushing the global economy toward recession and this threat is likely to be decisive in deciding how this conflict will end.

• Stagflation – a situation where inflation rises while economic growth slows and unemployment increases.

Sources

OECD – Energy price shocks
https://www.oecd.org

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4. Who Is Actually Driving The War

One of the most important considerations is political control, who is calling the shots, who is in the driving seat.

The assumption in markets is that President Trump will eventually pull back, as Trump famously always chickens out (TACO). 

However an objective analysis suggests something different. The war may not be driven primarily from Washington - the driving force seems to be Israel and specifically, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, whose strategic ambition for the last thirty years has been to remove Iran as a regional peer competitor in West Asia and to pursue his apocalyptic vision of a greater Israel.

If that assessment is correct, then you cannot count on the usual TACO expectation that “Washington will de escalate”. 

• Regional hegemony – the dominance of one state over others within a particular geographic region.

Sources

Council on Foreign Relations
https://www.cfr.org

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5. Why Iran Cannot Easily Back Down

Iran faces its own strategic dilemma. Iran has faced pressure from America and Israel since the 1979 revolution and the 444-day hostage crisis and more painfully in the past year the country has experienced repeated strikes on its territory.

If it fails to respond forcefully, its credibility and deterrence threat collapses, making further attacks become more likely. It is a mystery to most as to why the Iranian religious leadership could not see that its continued in existence depended on developing a nuclear deterrence. 

Resistance tactics can continue for a long time even against technologically superior opponents.

• Asymmetric warfare – a strategy where weaker actors use unconventional methods to counter stronger militaries.

Sources

RAND Corporation – Asymmetric conflict studies
https://www.rand.org

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6. The Escalation Ladder

Military planners often think about conflict using the concept of an escalation ladder.

The steps typically look like this.

1. sanctions and economic pressure
2. proxy conflicts
3. targeted air strikes
4. regional war
5. ground invasion
6. tactical nuclear weapons
7. strategic new clear exchange

Each step occurs when the previous one fails to achieve decisive results. The danger lies not in the first step but in the cumulative movement upwards. Already, this conflict has moved beyond the early stages

• Escalation ladder - a model describing how conflicts intensify through successive stages of military force.

Sources

Herman Kahn – On Escalation
https://www.rand.org

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7. The risk of this conflict going new clear 

It's true that most people find new clear war unimaginable, but now we see the subject entering the conversation for one reason: frustration with failed strategies.

After all, consider that if leadership decapitation fails, regime change does not occur, the war becomes prolonged, global economic damage intensifies, a global recession looms, then American leaders may concede to Israel a decisive solution.

From history we know that two actions have produced rapid regime collapse: large scale ground invasion and or an overwhelming destructive shock. We think of Hiroshima and Nagasaki.

• Tail risk - a low probability event that carries extremely large consequences.

Sources

SIPRI – Nuclear weapons reports
https://sipri.org

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8. The Wider Systemic Risk

The final argument in the discussion comes from economist Alastair Macleod. His focus is not just the battlefield, but the global financial system.

The West enters this crisis with several structural weaknesses - very high government debt, fragile financial markets, lingering inflation pressures and energy vulnerability. 

A prolonged war combined with an oil shock could easily trigger broader instability.

Possible outcomes as we have seen include: recession, more financial market stress, currency instability and political upheaval if not regime change in Western (sic) countries. 

So in this view, the conflict may produce systemic consequences far beyond the Middle East.

• Systemic crisis – a breakdown affecting the entire political or financial system rather than a single sector.

Sources

Bank for International Settlements
https://www.bis.org

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9. The Possible Futures

Putting the arguments together we can see several possible paths.

Scenario one – quick de escalation

• oil prices fall
• markets rally strongly
• conflict stabilises.

Scenario two – prolonged regional war

• oil shock spreads globally
• recession emerges.

Scenario three – wider escalation

• direct confrontation between larger powers
• severe economic disruption.

Scenario four – extreme escalation

• new clear weapons used as a decisive shock.

Scenario five – systemic crisis

• financial and political instability within Western economies themselves.

None of these outcomes is certain.

But the combination of geopolitical escalation, energy disruption and financial fragility means the risks now extend far beyond the original battlefield.

• Geopolitical systemic shift – a transformation in the global balance of power triggered by major conflict or economic upheaval.

Sources

International Crisis Group
https://www.crisisgroup.org

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(Some words have been re-spelt to conform with Google's community guidelines.) 

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THE TRAGEDY OF BLOC POLITICS

7 March 2026

Glenn Diesen explains the security dilemma in Europe:

• He discusses NATO expansion after the Cold War

• He argues that the Ukraine war reflects a structural conflict in the European security system

• He contrasts Western bloc politics with emerging multipolar institutions

THE TRAGEDY OF BLOC POLITICS

Overview

1. Europe’s Security Crisis

The war in Ukraine is often presented as a sudden geopolitical rupture. Professor Glenn Diesen argues that it is better understood as the collapse of the post Cold War security architecture in Europe.

Instead of building a cooperative system after 1989, Europe gradually returned to bloc politics. When security is organised around opposing alliances - one camp strengthening itself against another - tensions accumulate until they eventually explode into open conflict.

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2. The Security Dilemma

International politics operates without a central authority capable of guaranteeing security. In this environment every state must protect itself.

The difficulty is that defensive actions are often interpreted as threats. When one country strengthens its military or expands alliances, neighbouring states respond in kind. This dynamic is known as the security dilemma.

Over time the result can be arms races, alliance rivalry, and deepening mistrust.

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3. The Post Cold War Choice

After the collapse of the Soviet Union, Europe faced a strategic decision.

One path would have been inclusive security - creating a cooperative system that included Russia in the European order. The other path was to maintain and expand the Western alliance structure built during the Cold War.

In practice the second option prevailed. NATO expanded eastward, and the logic of bloc politics gradually re emerged.

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4. Ukraine As The Fault Line

Countries located between NATO and Russia became the most vulnerable parts of this new geopolitical landscape.

Ukraine in particular was divided between competing geopolitical orientations. Some political forces sought integration with Western institutions, while others favoured maintaining close relations with Russia.

In such circumstances, internal political divisions can easily become international crises. Ukraine eventually became the central battleground in this wider strategic contest.

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5. A Lesson For The Future

Diesen’s central argument is simple. Systems built around rival blocs tend to generate instability.

When states organise themselves into opposing camps, every attempt by one side to increase its security inevitably makes the other side feel less secure.

A more stable international order requires cooperation, economic interdependence, and diplomatic frameworks that reduce rivalry rather than intensify it. Europe’s experience offers a warning to other regions not to fall into the same trap of bloc politics.

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8. 
   

DETAIL

1. The Tragedy Of Bloc Politics

Insights from Professor Glenn Diesen on geopolitics and international security

The war in Ukraine and the wider security crisis in Europe are often discussed as if they were sudden events or the result of personalities and politics in the moment. Professor Glenn Diesen argues that this interpretation misses the deeper structural problem. In his view, the conflict reflects the collapse of the post Cold War security architecture in Europe.

The key issue is the return of bloc politics. Instead of constructing an inclusive European security order after the Cold War, the continent drifted back into a system where states organised themselves into rival camps. When security is built in this way - one alliance against another - tensions tend to accumulate until they eventually erupt.

Understanding how Europe arrived at this point requires stepping back and looking at the deeper logic of international relations.

International anarchy the condition in which the global system has no overarching authority capable of guaranteeing the security of states.

Reference: Glenn Diesen, The Ukraine War and the Eurasian World Order (2024)

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2. The Security Dilemma

One of the most fundamental ideas in international relations is the security dilemma. In a world without a global government, every state is responsible for its own protection. When one country strengthens its security - by expanding its military capabilities or joining alliances - neighbouring states often interpret this as a potential threat.

The result is a self reinforcing cycle. Defensive actions by one state are interpreted as offensive moves by another. Each side responds by strengthening its position further. Over time this can lead to arms races, alliance rivalries and growing suspicion.

Diesen argues that the most stable international systems are those based on the principle of indivisible security. Under this concept, countries recognise that their security is interconnected. Stability emerges when states pursue security with each other rather than against each other.

Security dilemma a situation in which measures taken by one state to increase its security inadvertently reduce the security of others, leading to escalating tensions.

Reference: John Herz, “Idealist Internationalism and the Security Dilemma”, World Politics (1950)

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3. Early Attempts At Cooperative Security

Europe did once attempt to escape the logic of bloc politics. After the devastation of the Second World War, several initiatives were designed to make conflict between European states materially difficult.

The European Coal and Steel Community is perhaps the most famous example. By integrating the coal and steel industries of France and Germany - the very industries needed to wage war - the project created economic interdependence between former enemies.

Later, during the Cold War, the Helsinki Accords of 1975 established principles for dialogue between East and West. These agreements emphasised respect for sovereignty, recognition of mutual security concerns, and cooperation across ideological lines.

By the end of the Cold War many policymakers hoped that these principles would evolve into a pan European security system without dividing lines. Institutions such as the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe were intended to support this inclusive framework.

Indivisible security the principle that the security of one state cannot be achieved at the expense of another.

Reference: Helsinki Final Act, Conference on Security and Cooperation in Europe (1975)

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4. The Post Cold War Choice

The collapse of the Soviet Union created a historic moment. European and American policymakers faced a strategic choice about how the new security order should be organised.

One option was inclusive security - a cooperative framework that would incorporate Russia into the broader European system. The other option was a hegemonic structure built around the continued expansion of Western alliances.

According to Diesen, the second path prevailed. Instead of dissolving Cold War structures, NATO expanded eastward across Central and Eastern Europe. From the Western perspective this expansion was presented as a voluntary process driven by the desires of new member states seeking protection.

From Moscow’s perspective, however, the expansion of a military alliance towards its borders revived the old logic of bloc competition. Critics in the 1990s, including the American diplomat George Kennan, warned that such expansion could provoke a new period of confrontation between Russia and the West.

Hegemony a system in which one dominant power exercises decisive influence over the international order.

Reference: George Kennan interview, The New York Times, 5 February 1997

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5. Ukraine As A Geopolitical Fault Line

Countries located between Russia and NATO gradually became the most fragile parts of the emerging system. Ukraine, Georgia and Moldova found themselves positioned between competing geopolitical projects.

Within many of these states there were strong internal debates about the direction of foreign policy. Some political groups favoured integration with Western institutions such as NATO and the European Union, while others advocated closer economic and cultural ties with Russia.

Diesen suggests that such divisions created fertile ground for instability. When great powers compete over influence in strategically important borderlands, domestic political tensions can easily escalate into international crises.

Ukraine eventually became the central battleground in this wider contest over the future of European security.

Proxy conflict a conflict in which major powers support opposing sides in another country rather than confronting each other directly.

Reference: Glenn Diesen, Russia’s Geoeconomic Strategy for a Greater Eurasia (2017)

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6. The Logic Of Hegemonic Order

Another element in Diesen’s analysis concerns the broader idea of hegemonic peace. After the Cold War the United States emerged as the world’s dominant power. Many policymakers believed that global stability could be maintained through American leadership supported by alliances and international institutions.

This model did deliver a period of relative stability in some regions. Yet critics argue that hegemonic systems contain inherent risks. When one power dominates the international system it may become tempted to extend its influence through military interventions, alliance expansion and ideological projects abroad.

Over time this can provoke resistance from other major powers seeking to restore balance. The result is a gradual erosion of legitimacy and the emergence of counter alliances.

Hegemonic peace the theory that global order is maintained when a single dominant power provides security and enforces rules within the international system.

Reference: Robert Gilpin, War and Change in World Politics (1981)

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7. Alternative Approaches Emerging In Asia

Diesen contrasts Europe’s experience with developments in parts of Asia and the wider Global South. Several regional organisations have emerged that operate less like military alliances and more like flexible platforms for cooperation.

Institutions such as ASEAN, BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation place greater emphasis on strategic autonomy and diversified partnerships. Rather than forming rigid military blocs, these organisations encourage economic integration and diplomatic dialogue among states with very different political systems.

This model does not eliminate competition between states. However, it seeks to prevent competition from crystallising into opposing geopolitical camps that could eventually lead to conflict.

Strategic autonomy the ability of a state or region to pursue independent policies without being subordinated to the interests of a dominant power.

Reference: ASEAN Charter (2008); BRICS Summit Declarations

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8. The Central Lesson

For Diesen the lesson of Europe’s security crisis is straightforward. Systems organised around rival blocs tend to produce structural instability. When states cluster into opposing camps, every attempt by one side to strengthen itself inevitably threatens the other.

Over time this dynamic can turn geopolitical competition into outright confrontation.

A more stable order, he suggests, requires inclusive security institutions, economic interdependence with diversified partners, and diplomatic frameworks that reduce rivalry rather than intensify it.

This argument does not imply that conflict can be eliminated entirely. International politics will always involve competition between states with different interests. The challenge is preventing that competition from hardening into permanent blocs.

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9. A Warning For The Future

Europe once presented itself as a model of peace and integration. The current crisis suggests that this achievement may have been more fragile than many assumed.

If security is organised primarily through exclusion - one alliance against another - the logic of rivalry tends to reassert itself. The consequences may take decades to unfold, but eventually the structural pressures become difficult to contain.

For policymakers elsewhere, particularly in Asia, the European experience offers a clear warning. The real challenge is not simply managing relations between great powers. It is avoiding the deeper structural trap of bloc politics that can transform geopolitical competition into open conflict.

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9. References

• The Rest Doesn't Care About The West's Block Mentality

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JsyNQqvGAc4

• NATO's War of Choice  The Sabotage of the Peace Negotiations

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VnL4s-b6hxo

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GOLD AND SILVER UPDATE

26 February 2026

Kitco’s Jeremy Szafron interviews Daniel Oliver of Myrmikan Capital on the next phase of the gold bull market.

Oliver argues the steady central bank accumulation phase is over. Gold is now entering a more volatile stage driven by mounting stress in the US credit system, particularly private equity and commercial real estate.

He says the Federal Reserve faces a structural trap: a massive refinancing wall and the near impossibility of shrinking its balance sheet while cutting rates. Liquidity injections may ease panic, but they cannot fix insolvency.

The interview also highlights tightening conditions in the physical gold market. Banks are raising margin requirements on smelters, forcing reduced inventories and contributing to volatility.

Applying historical balance sheet ratios, Oliver argues gold may need to reprice significantly higher to stabilise the Fed’s balance sheet, suggesting levels around $8,000 to $12,000 under traditional coverage assumptions.

1. GOLD, CREDIT AND THE COMING RESET
   Daniel Oliver On Kitco

Source:

Daniel Oliver’s interview ranges across sovereign debt, private equity, Fed mechanics, gold ratios and digital currencies.

Gold and Silver Update

────────────────────────

2. PHASES OF THE GOLD BULL MARKET

Oliver divides the bull market into three phases.

Phase One
Triggered by the weaponisation of the dollar in 2022.
Central banks began accumulating gold to reduce geopolitical risk.

Phase Two
Credit stress inside the US system.
Private equity refinancing pressure.
Shrinking bond liquidity.
The Fed quietly re-expanding its balance sheet.

Phase Three
A sovereign debt confidence crisis.
Possible monetary reset.
Major gold repricing event.

The central claim is that gold is responding not to CPI but to structural credit stress.

Key Glossary

• Weaponisation of the dollar – Use of the US dollar system as a geopolitical tool via sanctions or asset seizures.*

• Sovereign debt – Debt issued by a national government.*

• Monetary reset – A restructuring of the international monetary system after systemic stress.*

• Credit cycle – The expansion and contraction of lending over time.*

• Repricing event – A sharp shift in asset valuations after new financial information emerges.*

────────────────────────

3. GOLD AS CAPITAL, NOT RETAIL MONEY

Oliver distinguishes between transaction money and capital.

Gold historically functions as capital.
It stores surplus wealth.
It settles sovereign imbalances.

It is not designed for buying groceries.
Silver historically played that role.

This framing matters because pricing assets in gold reveals different trends than pricing them in dollars.

Key Glossary

• Capital – Accumulated wealth used to preserve or generate future wealth.*

• Fiat currency – State declared money not backed by a commodity.*

• Reserve currency – A currency widely held by central banks for trade and savings.*

• Gold standard – A system where currency is convertible into gold at a fixed rate.*

• Gold coverage – The proportion of monetary liabilities backed by gold reserves.*

────────────────────────

4. PRIVATE EQUITY AND THE CREDIT RISK

Private equity operates through leverage.

Borrow heavily.
Acquire companies.
Optimise cash flow.
Refinance at lower rates.

This model worked for forty years of falling rates.

It becomes fragile when rates rise.

The refinancing wall is approaching.
Defaults may emerge gradually rather than explosively.

Key Glossary

• Private equity – Investment funds acquiring companies using significant borrowed money.*

• Leverage – The use of borrowed capital to amplify returns and risk.*

• Debt maturity wall – A large volume of debt coming due within a short period.*

• Credit default – Failure to meet repayment obligations.*

• Liquidity risk – Risk that assets cannot be sold quickly without price loss.*

────────────────────────

5. THE FED’S BALANCE SHEET CONSTRAINT

Oliver argues it is mathematically inconsistent to both shrink the Fed balance sheet and lower rates.

Post 2008, reserves flooded the system.
The Fed now controls rates by paying interest on reserves.

If reserves become scarce again, the mechanism fails.

Any renewed crisis likely expands the balance sheet.

Gold revalues accordingly.

Key Glossary

• Balance sheet expansion – Increase in central bank assets through bond purchases.*

• Central bank reserves – Deposits commercial banks hold at the central bank.*

• Excess reserves – Reserves held beyond required minimum levels.*

• Interest on reserves – Payments made by central banks to banks for holding reserves.*

• Interest rate transmission – The mechanism through which policy rates influence lending rates.*

────────────────────────

6. GOLD PRICE TARGETS VIA COVERAGE RATIOS

Historical observation
Central banks once held gold equal to one third to one half of liabilities.

Applying that ratio today:

33 percent coverage implies roughly 8000 dollars.
50 percent implies roughly 12000 dollars.

This is not a forecast.
It is a balance sheet arithmetic exercise.

Critically, modern Fed assets are lower quality than 19th century commercial paper.

Key Glossary

• Coverage ratio – The proportion of gold reserves relative to monetary liabilities.*

• Implied gold price – The theoretical gold price required to balance a central bank balance sheet.*

• Net present value – Present value of projected future cash flows discounted for time and risk.*

• Mortgage backed securities – Bonds backed by pools of mortgage loans.*

────────────────────────

7. SILVER DYNAMICS

Silver differs from gold.

Seventy five percent is by-product supply.
Industrial demand is price insensitive.
Solar and electronics require it.
Gold silver ratio stretched beyond 100 to 1.

Small shifts in demand create large price moves.

Key Glossary

• Inelastic supply – Supply that cannot quickly expand despite price increases.*

• Inelastic demand – Demand that changes little despite price shifts.*

• Gold to silver ratio – The price of gold divided by the price of silver.*

• Spot price – Current market price for immediate delivery.*

────────────────────────

8. PHYSICAL MARKET STRESS

Smelters hedge inventory via futures.

Banks reduce margin tolerance during volatility.

Result
Less inventory held.
Lower throughput.
Higher premiums.
More volatility.

The plumbing of the market tightens.

Key Glossary

• Futures market – A market trading contracts for future delivery of commodities.*

• Hedge – A position taken to offset price risk.*

• Margin call – A broker demand for additional collateral after losses.*

• Volatility – Degree of price fluctuation over time.*

• Illiquidity – Difficulty selling assets quickly at fair value.*

────────────────────────

9. DIGITAL CURRENCY AND CONTROL

Governments increasingly explore digital systems.

CBDCs allow transaction traceability.
Capital controls become easier.
Account freezing becomes instantaneous.

Historical precedents include:
1933 gold confiscation.
1960s capital controls.

Gold functions as private capital outside banking systems.

Key Glossary

• Central bank digital currency – State issued programmable digital money.*

• Capital controls – Restrictions on movement of money across borders.*

• Financial repression – Policies directing private savings to fund government debt.*

• Sovereign default – Failure of a government to meet its debt obligations.*

────────────────────────

10. CRASH OR FINANCIAL REPRESSION?

Oliver prefers liquidation to prolonged stagnation.

A crash reveals true prices.
Repression delays adjustment.
2008 postponed restructuring.

The next adjustment may be larger because distortions are larger.

Key Glossary

• Financial repression – Policies suppressing interest rates and redirecting savings to the state.*

• Liquidation – Forced sale of assets to repay debts.*

• Credit bubble – Asset inflation driven by excessive lending.*

• Hyperinflation – Extremely rapid currency debasement with explosive price increases.*

────────────────────────

11. FINAL REFLECTION

The framework rests on three pillars:

Geopolitical reserve shift.
Private credit fragility.
Sovereign balance sheet mathematics.

Timing is uncertain.
Arithmetic is not.

The interview does not predict apocalypse.
It predicts balance sheet logic asserting itself.

Gold is positioned as capital insurance against systemic restructuring.

And miners represent embedded leverage without margin calls.

────────────────────────

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JOHN GRAY ON WHY I'M NOT A POST LIBERAL

19 February 2026

JOHN GRAY ON WHY I'M NOT A POST LIBERAL

Do you agree : the state intervenes to enforce the rules of co-existence, not to manufacture a morally DEI-correct “progressive” citizenry.... 

John Gray thinks mixing up security (=the job of the state) with moral re-education is politically fatal because all you'll wind up with is the backlash you fear most. We don't want a virtue-signaling state, we want a strong and neutral state... didn't we separate church and state a long time ago? 

Gray says liberals believe tolerance and discussion and debate will lead to better outcomes, but he says he is a Hobbesian in the sense that "rubbing along" ( as he calls tolerance of disagreement) is a good idea not because it leads to harmony but because the alternative - intolerance of people you disagree with - is far worse, as history shows.

Liberals think the state is there to ensure order if groups fail to rub along. Gray's idea is liberalism brings you peace, but NOT liberalism as a Moral Crusade. 

But then how strong should this strong Hobbesian state be? It's not there to force DEI conformance... How is a Hobbesian state working for order any different from the curtailment of "rights" that people in the UK already endure?

These are just random thoughts... Gray does nail it though when he says that outsourcing value-laden decisions to technocrats is an administrative approach that is never going to work, because the whole problem is the clashes of values between subgroups, and that's what politics is there to solve.

He says somewhere near the beginning that Enlightenment liberalism just can't work because it assumes one rational set of universal values, whereas we've got all these different cultural subgroups vying for power and resources.

Post-liberalism, like Alasdair MacIntyre, on the other hand is no better - a) it thinks that classical liberalism, in the face of all these different subgroups, "hollowed out" what was once a shared moral culture, and b) post liberalism dreams of restoring a thick moral unity that never in actual fact existed.

The post-libs argue liberal neutrality is incoherent; you need politics to push common moral goods. As we've seen, Gray does not agree. 

But pushing common moral goods often ends up hunting minorities as spoilers... If you assume consensus is natural, you are right and dissent is wrong and looks like sabotage, so the state needs to go after dissenters. How's that different from what we've got?

And so, would (a return to) cultural homogeneity (eg Britain the 1950s) bring seamless moral unity? High conformity, certainly. But also rigid gender roles, criminalisation of homosexuality, colonial wars (Kenya, Malaya)... If you look at the history of our gallant country, it's a bit of a myth to think that there were ever peaceful pastoral scenes - we even chopped off the head of our king... Axe, not guillotine.

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WHEN THE WORLD CHANGES AND WE DO NOT

17 February 2026

WHEN THE WORLD CHANGES AND WE DO NOT

Erasure or evolution? 

1. This Poster And The Feeling Behind It

An image such as this, despite its surface references to theology or food or drink, is not really about those things at all. It is about loss. It compresses a complicated historical process into a simple moral drama in which everything familiar appears under attack and someone or something else is presented as the cause.

That story carries emotional force, particularly in later life when there is more time to observe change rather than simply adapt to it. Streets look different. Accents sound unfamiliar. Shop fronts change. It can genuinely feel as though the country once known, has shifted beyond recognition. There is truth in the perception of change.

Furthermore it is not just change itself, it is the rate of change which appears to have accelerated beyond the ability of ordinary people to successfully adapt.

The grievance can be restated as a perception or feeling of betrayal. As Neil Howe explains, identity and values are largely formed from events experienced in our youth. Is it realistic to expect older generations to adapt to and reinterpret their nation through such a radically different cultural frame later in life?

In addition, what did older generations get in exchange for this added disruption? Globalisation has accelerated economic and demographic change. Those changes were promoted by political and financial elites. Ordinary citizens bore the disruption, but the gains accrued disproportionately to capital, not labour. 

It may be a fact of life that younger generations adapt more easily to rapid change simply because their starting point is nearer their baseline, while older generations - further away - experience the same change as loss rather than evolution. Ok, but what are the policy implications of this? Is, for example, the triple lock pension designed to keep older people quiet? 

When you listen to the arguments on both sides those pro immigration and those for controlling it, don't they come across as emotional to the point of hysterical, rather than objectively grounded and promoting worked-out and achievable policies? We all have an idea of who we are and what our identity consists of. Aren't the two sides defending different identies, values and in reality different memories of the country that shaped them?

Populist - or if you prefer revolutionary - movements have historically been the result of economic deprivation but is it more than that today? Is it that there are large cohorts within the population who have been "culturally displaced"? We are talking about social fragmentation, and not just generational but regional and class-based as well, and isn't it the emotional response to this that is the cause of instability and may conceivably push us to Civil War? 

The governors should be able to buy off objections. Although there is considerable inequality between those with assets and those without, the problem is more than economic. Can the governors preserve core trans-generational civic symbols that reassure continuity, and also at the same time integrate immigrants within those symbols rather than allow immigrants to replace them? 

This is what the Great Replacement Theory, beloved of Eric Zemmour and others, is all about. The British are a declining nation, facing even "civilisational erasure", as JD Vance called it. 

So here Vance is talking about our cultural confidence, about "demographic continuity", about the nations of Europe each defending their national sovereignty and institutions, and keeping a "moral coherence". He argues that a nation unable to regulate entry cannot preserve its "civic identity" and that once immigrants are legally admitted they must be assimilated into the national culture - he says that multiculturalism simply doesn't work. He also argues that Western societies are ageing and shrinking, and demographic collapse weakens long-term stability and so family-centric policies must be developed. 

The starting point is the social contract. To reduce the gap between governing and governed, corporate influence - that is influence from donor classes, big tech and so on - should be a limited. The financialisation of assets needs to stop and production together with fair wages needs to be restarted. And ways must be found to encourage and prioritise domestic labour in place of global capital mobility ie rebalance the system towards national workers rather than transnational capital.

History

Immigration into the UK today sits within a much longer imperial and economic arc. After the war, Britain invited Commonwealth labour, including the Windrush generation, to rebuild the country and staff institutions such as the newly created Health Service. Later, Britain accepted Ugandan Asians under legal and moral obligations. In the late twentieth century, labour mobility deepened under globalisation, particularly after EU expansion and the growth of finance, universities and health care recruitment.

High inflows are therefore not an isolated accident but a feature of an economy integrated for decades into global capital and labour markets. History shows that empires under fiscal strain and global entanglement often struggle to control population flows. Immigration in such circumstances becomes a symptom of structural forces rather than a tap that can simply be turned off. To attempt to do so abruptly would mean shrinking the economy and retreating from a global system Britain itself helped to build.

At the same time, while most migrant communities over time have integrated into the wider legal and cultural framework while retaining elements of their heritage, there are concerns that a minority within more recent, strongly ideologically motivated movements have been more resistant to integration, maintaining parallel norms and advocating forms of religious law that sit in tension with the supremacy of British civil law. This raises legitimate questions about cohesion and the principle that one sovereign legal system must apply equally to all.

Before accepting a narrative of civilisational collapse or erasure however, it is worth considering whether some of the discomfort arises not only from external change but also from an internal struggle to adjust to it.

2. Building A Life Versus Living Inside It

Most of adult life is spent building - career, family, identity and routine. That phase is active and outward looking. Retirement alters the rhythm. There is more space for personal reflection and comparison between past and present.

If identity has been tightly bound to a particular era or cultural atmosphere, then demographic change can feel like personal erasure. If identity rests on deeper foundations than a single historical period, change can be approached as something to understand rather than something to fight.

Global trade, decolonisation, capital flows and labour mobility cannot be reversed any more than ageing itself can be reversed. The economic dynamics associated with late stage empire are structural. Daily resentment won't alter them.

The underlying choice in later life is whether to expend energy resisting historical currents or to cultivate steadiness within them.

3. The Hidden Side Of Anger

When individuals confront forces far larger than themselves, anger can provide a sense of clarity and strength. It simplifies complexity and assigns responsibility. Yet sustained anger often conceals deeper anxieties - fear of decline, fear of irrelevance, fear that the world is moving forward without one’s participation.

Demographic change can become a symbol of those fears. New languages, new customs and new generations serve as reminders that time moves on. Facing that reality calmly requires a different kind of strength from blaming visible outsiders. The latter may feel momentarily satisfying, but it rarely produces peace.

4. Meaning Beyond The Headlines

Retirement can narrow perspective or enlarge it. Time once consumed by work can be used to rehearse grievances or to mentor, read more widely, engage with history in greater depth, converse across differences, keep a reflective journal or even write a biography that integrates a lifetime of experience.

A country shaped by empire and global trade was never destined to remain static. Movement and exchange have long been part of its fabric. Recognising this does not require endorsement of every policy choice; it simply removes the temptation to interpret structural change as a personal attack.

With that shift, energy becomes available for adaptation rather than defence. Identity ceases to be a fragile relic and becomes something capable of evolution.

5. The Choice In Later Life

Later life presents a quiet but profound decision. One path hardens around what once was. The other integrates what now is.

Hardening can initially feel strong and principled, yet over time it often produces isolation and bitterness. Integration may feel unsettling at first, but it tends to lead towards calm, proportion and perspective.

Memories and affections for earlier decades need not be abandoned. They can remain valued chapters within a longer narrative. Historians divide the past into periods for a reason; each era forms a section of a larger story. The Britain of the Swinging Sixties was not the Britain of the Victorian age, and the present is not the 1960s.

History moves. Economies evolve. Populations shift. These currents cannot be stopped by indignation alone. What can be chosen is the stance taken towards them.

Retirement need not become a daily referendum on what has been lost. It can instead become a stage of clarity, proportion and even quiet enjoyment, once the assumption is released that the world must remain as it was for life to retain meaning.

Peace often arrives not through winning the argument, but through stepping beyond it.

REFERENCES

http://www.livingintheair.org/2026/01/the-economics-of-late-stage-empire.html

http://www.livingintheair.org/2025/12/nothing-can-be-done-about-immigration.html

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yUmscnUliBs&list=WL&index=1&pp=iAQBsAgC

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2TdC9Xd76UM&list=WL&index=2&pp=iAQBsAgC

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YOUR STORY IS NOT FINISHED: WHY NOW IS THE TIME TO WRITE IT

17 February 2026

CERITA ANDA BELUM SELESAI: MENGAPA SEKARANG ADALAH WAKTU YANG TEPAT UNTUK MENULISKANNYA

I. Pengamatan Seorang Penulis Biografi

Setelah bertahun-tahun mendengarkan kisah pria dan wanita di usia lanjut, saya menyadari ada perubahan yang tenang tetapi kuat ketika dorongan untuk berprestasi mulai berkurang dan perenungan menjadi lebih dalam. Percakapan menjadi lebih lambat, namun juga lebih bermakna, dan di balik kalimat sehari-hari muncul pertanyaan besar tentang arti hidup, tentang keterhubungan, dan tentang warisan. Apa sebenarnya makna dari semua ini? Apakah pengorbanan itu sepadan? Benang apa yang menghubungkan cita-cita masa muda dengan tanggung jawab dan kompromi di masa dewasa?

Psikiater Swiss Carl Jung menyebut tahap ini sebagai proses menuju individuasi, yaitu penyatuan seluruh pengalaman hidup menjadi satu kesatuan yang utuh dan bermakna. Ini bukan sikap egois dan bukan pula keinginan untuk dipuji. Ini adalah perkembangan psikologis yang wajar ketika seseorang ingin memahami pola hidupnya sendiri. Biografi yang ditulis dengan sungguh-sungguh menjadi bentuk nyata dari proses penyatuan itu.

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II. Prestasi Membangun Rumah

Sebagian besar orang yang lebih tua telah menghabiskan puluhan tahun membangun sesuatu yang nyata. Mereka membangun karier, usaha, lembaga, dan keluarga, sering kali dalam tekanan dan tanpa banyak penghargaan. Mereka membuat keputusan yang dampaknya jauh melampaui diri mereka sendiri, dan memikul tanggung jawab yang mungkin tidak sepenuhnya dipahami oleh generasi yang lebih muda karena mereka tidak melihat beratnya pada saat itu.

Prestasi membangun rumah.

Namun pada satu tahap, pembangunan melambat dan seseorang harus tinggal di dalam rumah yang telah dibangunnya. Jika kisah hidup itu tidak pernah direnungkan, beberapa bagiannya bisa terasa terpisah atau belum selesai. Ketika kisah itu dituturkan dengan jujur dan seimbang, bab-bab yang terpisah mulai terhubung dan rumah itu terasa benar-benar dihuni, bukan sekadar berdiri. Menulis kisah hidup memungkinkan cita-cita awal, krisis paruh baya, keraguan pribadi, dan perubahan tak terduga terlihat sebagai satu rangkaian yang saling berkaitan, dan apa yang dulu terasa seperti kebetulan sering kali memperlihatkan pola yang jelas.

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III. Bayangan Juga Pantas Mendapat Tempat

Jung juga berbicara tentang bayangan, yaitu bagian dari diri kita yang tidak ingin kita lihat terlalu dekat, termasuk kesalahan, penyesalan, rasa iri, ketakutan, dan kelemahan moral. Pada masa muda dan dewasa, bagian ini sering tertutup oleh kesibukan dan tanggung jawab, tetapi pada usia lanjut ia sering muncul kembali dengan lebih jelas.

Biografi yang serius tidak menghapus bagian-bagian ini, dan juga tidak membesar-besarkannya. Sebaliknya, ia memasukkannya ke dalam cerita yang lebih besar sehingga menjadi bagian dari kisah manusia yang utuh, bukan beban yang tersembunyi. Ketika penyesalan tidak pernah diungkapkan, ia bisa mengeras menjadi sikap mudah marah atau ketidakpuasan yang diam. Namun ketika diakui dalam kerangka yang lebih luas, ia sering menjadi lebih ringan dan menemukan tempatnya. Dalam arti ini, biografi bukan pembelaan diri, melainkan tindakan berdamai dengan kompleksitas diri sendiri.

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IV. Makna Melampaui Prestasi

Pada masa muda, pertanyaan utama biasanya adalah apa yang akan saya capai, sedangkan pada usia lanjut pertanyaannya menjadi apa arti semua ini. Penelitian jangka panjang seperti Harvard Study of Adult Development berulang kali menunjukkan bahwa pada usia lanjut, kesejahteraan lebih berkaitan dengan hubungan dan rasa makna daripada dengan kekayaan atau status. Prestasi mungkin memudar dari ingatan publik, tetapi karakter di baliknya tetap hidup dalam ingatan keluarga.

Karena itu, biografi tidak hanya berguna bagi penulisnya, tetapi juga bagi keluarga dan orang-orang terdekat. Ia memberi konteks kepada anak dan cucu, sehingga mereka memahami bukan hanya apa yang dilakukan, tetapi juga mengapa hal itu dilakukan dan dalam tekanan serta keyakinan seperti apa keputusan itu diambil. Tanpa konteks, keturunan hanya mewarisi potongan cerita. Dengan konteks, mereka mewarisi pemahaman yang utuh.

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V. Kesadaran Akan Kematian Memperjelas Perspektif

Usia lanjut membawa kesadaran bahwa waktu terbatas. Kesadaran ini memang bisa terasa tidak nyaman, tetapi juga memperjelas apa yang penting. Keluhan kecil kehilangan urgensinya, sementara nilai-nilai yang bertahan menjadi lebih terlihat. Menulis kisah hidup pada tahap ini bukanlah sikap suram, melainkan sikap yang tenang dan realistis. Ia mengakui bahwa waktu terbatas, sambil menegaskan bahwa pengalaman memiliki bobot dan arti.

Dengan menuliskan hidup, seseorang juga merekam sejarah sosial sebagaimana dialami secara pribadi. Perang, perpindahan, krisis ekonomi, perubahan budaya, dan kemajuan teknologi semuanya terlihat berbeda ketika diceritakan oleh orang yang benar-benar menjalaninya. Biografi menjaga kekayaan pengalaman itu bagi generasi berikutnya.

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VI. Untuk Generasi Yang Akan Datang

Ada satu dimensi tambahan yang sering terlewat. Kita menulis biografi bukan hanya untuk memahami diri sendiri, tetapi juga agar orang lain dapat memahami kita, dan melalui kita memahami diri mereka sendiri. Dalam setiap keluarga terdapat pola keberanian, ketahanan, kegagalan, kemurahan hati, dan juga kelemahan. Jika pola-pola ini tidak pernah diungkapkan, mereka bekerja secara diam-diam. Ketika diungkapkan, mereka menjadi warisan yang disadari.

Bagi anggota keluarga yang lebih muda, membaca kisah hidup seperti ini bisa menjadi sumber inspirasi sekaligus peringatan. Mereka melihat apa yang mampu dicapai oleh keluarga mereka dalam kondisi sulit, dan mereka juga melihat di mana kesombongan, ketakutan, atau kesalahan penilaian membawa masalah. Pengetahuan ini dapat memperkuat jati diri dan menyeimbangkan ambisi dengan kebijaksanaan. Dengan demikian, biografi menjadi cermin bukan hanya bagi masa lalu, tetapi juga bagi masa depan.

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VII. Sebuah Undangan

Jika Anda merasakan dalam diri Anda, atau dalam diri seseorang yang Anda cintai, dorongan untuk merenung dan menyatukan pengalaman hidup, dorongan itu layak diperhatikan. Itu bukan tanda kemunduran, melainkan kedalaman. Itu bukan sikap mementingkan diri sendiri, melainkan penyelesaian tugas psikologis yang memang milik tahap akhir kehidupan.

Menyusun biografi berarti mengumpulkan peristiwa yang tersebar menjadi satu narasi yang dapat dipahami oleh diri sendiri dan oleh generasi berikutnya. Ia memungkinkan prestasi dan kerentanan, kekuatan dan bayangan, keberhasilan dan kesalahan, duduk bersama dalam satu kisah yang utuh.

Prestasi membangun rumah. Integrasi, yang dibagikan melalui cerita, membuat rumah itu layak dihuni bukan hanya bagi Anda, tetapi juga bagi semua yang suatu hari akan melangkah masuk ke dalamnya.

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YOUR STORY IS NOT FINISHED: WHY NOW IS THE TIME TO WRITE IT

I. A Biographer’s Observation

After many years listening to men and women in later life, I have come to recognise a quiet but powerful shift that takes place when the urgency of external achievement begins to recede and reflection becomes more prominent. Conversations grow slower, but they also grow deeper, and beneath everyday remarks one hears larger questions forming about meaning, coherence and legacy. What did it amount to? Were the sacrifices justified? What thread connects the early ambitions of youth with the compromises and responsibilities of middle age?

The Swiss psychiatrist Carl Jung described this stage as a movement towards individuation, by which he meant the integration of one’s life into a meaningful whole. This is not self indulgence and it is not vanity. It is a natural psychological development in which a person seeks to understand the pattern of their own existence. A biography, thoughtfully undertaken, becomes the visible form of that integration.

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II. Achievement Built The House

Most older people have spent decades building something tangible. They built careers, businesses, institutions and families, often under pressure and frequently without applause. They made decisions whose consequences extended far beyond themselves, and they bore responsibilities that younger generations may never fully appreciate because they never saw the weight of them at the time.

Achievement builds the house.

Yet there comes a stage when the construction slows and one must live within what has been built. If the story remains unexamined, parts of it can feel fragmented or unresolved. When the story is told with honesty and proportion, the separate chapters begin to connect and the house feels inhabited rather than merely constructed. Writing a life story allows early aspirations, mid life crises, private doubts and unexpected turns to reveal their continuity, and what once seemed like a series of accidents often discloses a discernible pattern.

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III. The Shadow Deserves Its Place

Jung also wrote of the shadow, meaning those aspects of ourselves that we would rather not examine too closely, including mistakes, regrets, envy, fear and moments of moral weakness. In youth and middle age these elements can be buried beneath activity and responsibility, but in later life they often reappear with surprising clarity.

A serious biography does not erase these chapters, nor does it dramatise them. Instead, it integrates them into the broader narrative so that they form part of a human story rather than a hidden burden. When regrets remain unspoken they can harden into irritability or quiet dissatisfaction, whereas when they are acknowledged within a larger framework they frequently soften and find proportion. In that sense, biography is not a defence brief but an act of reconciliation with one’s own complexity.

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IV. Meaning Beyond Achievement

In youth the central question tends to be what one will accomplish, while in later life the question becomes what it all meant. Longitudinal research such as the Harvard Study of Adult Development has repeatedly shown that in older age, wellbeing correlates more strongly with relationships and a sense of meaning than with wealth or status. Achievements may fade from public memory, but the character behind them endures in private memory and family culture.

A biography therefore serves not only the writer but also the entourage. It gives children and grandchildren context, allowing them to understand not merely what was done but why it was done, and under what pressures and convictions those decisions were made. Without such context, descendants inherit fragments and anecdotes. With it, they inherit coherence and insight.

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V. Mortality Clarifies Perspective

Later life brings an increasing awareness of finitude, and although this awareness can be unsettling it also clarifies priorities. Trivial grievances lose urgency, while enduring values become more visible. Writing one’s life at this stage is not morbid; it is measured. It acknowledges that time is finite while affirming that experience has weight and significance.

In recording a life, one is also recording social history as lived reality. Wars, migrations, economic crises, cultural revolutions and technological changes all appear differently when viewed through the eyes of someone who navigated them personally. A biography preserves that lived texture for those who come after.

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VI. For Those Who Come After

There is an additional dimension which is sometimes overlooked. We write our biographies not only to understand ourselves, but so that others may understand us and, through us, understand themselves. Within every family there are patterns of courage, resilience, failure, generosity and blind spots. When these remain unspoken they operate invisibly. When they are articulated they become conscious inheritance.

For younger members of the family, reading such a life can be both inspiration and warning. They see what their lineage has been capable of achieving under constraint, and they also see where pride, fear or misjudgement led to difficulty. This knowledge can strengthen identity and temper ambition with wisdom. A biography thus becomes a mirror held up not only to the past but to the future.

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VII. An Invitation

If you sense within yourself, or within someone close to you, that reflective turn towards integration, it is worth taking seriously. It is not decline but depth, not self absorption but completion of a psychological task that belongs to later life.

To shape a biography is to gather scattered episodes into a narrative that can be understood by oneself and by one’s descendants. It allows achievement and vulnerability, strength and shadow, success and error to sit together within a single coherent account.

Achievement built the house. Integration, shared through story, makes it habitable not only for you but for everyone who will one day walk through its doors.

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A SENSITIVE ADOLESCENT WATCHING HER GRANDPARENTS GROW OLD

17 February 2026

A SENSITIVE ADOLESCENT WATCHING HER GRANDPARENTS GROW OLDER

I. When You Begin To Notice

There comes a moment, often in adolescence, when a young person begins to see their grandparents differently. They are no longer simply kind figures who bring sweets or tell stories. They appear more fragile, sometimes more anxious, occasionally more rigid or critical. For a sensitive teenager, this can be confusing, even unsettling. It may feel as though something is “going wrong”.

In truth, what they are witnessing is not failure but ageing, ageing in its full psychological depth. Growing old is not only a physical process. It is an emotional and existential one.

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II. The House They Built

Much of adult life is spent building. School, exucation, work, training, reputation, property, wealth, business, family - these are the bricks and beams of identity. For decades, people are occupied with construction. They are needed. They are productive. They are busy. They become the achievements.

Later in life, however, the activities of building slow down. Retirement arrives. Children leave home. Social roles shrink. At that point, a person must live inside and reconcile themselves to what they have built. If their identity was based entirely on achievement, the house can feel strangely empty. If they also built inner depth - maybe reflection, self-knowledge, acceptance of change within and without - the house feels warmer.

A teenager observing their grandparents may notice this difference without having language for it. One grandparent may seem peaceful and reflective. Another may seem restless or dissatisfied. What she is seeing is the difference between achievement and integration. Achievement builds the house. Integration makes it habitable.

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III. The Shadow That Emerges

The Swiss psychiatrist Carl Jung wrote about the shadow, meaning the parts of ourselves we prefer not to see - regrets, weaknesses, unfulfilled desires, mistakes made. When people are busy, these aspects can remain hidden, but later in life, when external distractions diminish, they have a tendency to resurface.

This may express itself as repeated complaints, irritation, moral rigidity, or nostalgia for a past that feels safer than the present. For a sensitive adolescent, such behaviour can feel personal. It is important to understand that it often appears like a personal comment by the grandparent on the young person, but in reality what is happening is that the older person may be reflecting on their own life rather than making a judgement of the young.

To see things in this way may help the young person to soften their understanding of what's going on. One begins to understand that ageing can expose unresolved chapters of a long story.

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IV. The Search For Meaning

In youth, the central question is often “Who will I become?” In older age, the question shifts to “Did my life matter?” This is not self-pity. It is a natural psychological turn toward meaning.

When grandparents repeat stories, dwell on memories, or reflect on earlier decades, they are not merely being repetitive. They are organising their life narrative. Psychologists describe this as the movement toward ego integrity — the ability to look back on one’s life with a sense of coherence rather than despair.

Ther is a long-running Harvard Study of Adult Development that has consistently found that, in later life, meaning and relationships matter more for wellbeing than wealth or status. What appears from the outside as reminiscence is often an attempt to weave experience into a whole.

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V. Mortality In The Background

An adolescent may not consciously think about death, but an older person often does. Friends pass away. Health shifts. Time feels finite rather than expansive. This awareness can bring gratitude and tenderness. It can also bring fear or defensiveness.

A teenager who senses this tension is perceiving something real. Mortality sits unspoken in the room, no one names it. Some older people reconcile themselves to it. Others resist it. Both reactions are human.

Understanding this changes the emotional atmosphere. What looked like stubbornness may partly be vulnerability. What felt like criticism may partly be anxiety.

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VI. What The Adolescent Is Learning

To witness ageing closely is an education. It reveals that life is not only about ambition or visibility. It is about becoming whole. It shows that success does not automatically guarantee peace. It teaches that inner work matters as much as outer accomplishment.

For a sensitive young person, this can be both sobering and profound. He or she is seeing the later chapters of a story while they're still writing the first. They may feel sadness or tenderness or even feel fear of what ageing means. All of these responses are natural.

What the young person does not need to feel is responsibility. After all, they cannot repair another person’s unfinished psychological work. But what they can offer is presence, listening, and respect. That is often more powerful than advice.

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VII. A Wise Old Conclusion

Old age is not merely decline. It is a stage of reckoning and integration. Some navigate it with serenity. Others struggle. Most do a mixture of both.

A sensitive adolescent who begins to see this clearly is already developing wisdom. He or she is learning that human beings are layered up and unfinished at every age.

And perhaps, without yet fully realising it, they are also learning how to build their own house in a way that one day will make it easier to live inside.

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EMPIRE, MIGRATION AND ADAPTATION

13 February 2026

Living with differences - ethnic, religious, racial... you name it 

Are today’s tensions really new, or simply another turn in long historical cycles of empire, technology and migration? From the East India Companies to Windrush and modern mass migration, this piece explores how scale, economics and perception shape our politics; and why calm adaptability may be the most practical and healthy response of all.

The major events shaping the perception by ordinary people in West Asia of western governments 

This graphic image identifies the major events that have shaped the perception held by ordinary people living in the West of people who have come to live in Europe from west Asia. 

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1. Where Did Our Present Troubles Begin?

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Was it the birth of corporate capitalism with the Dutch East India Company in 1602, when trade and profit became organised on a global scale and banks were set up to creating capital markets? Or the expansionist reach of the British East India Company, which fused commerce, empire and military force? Perhaps the decisive moment was Napoleon's invasion of Egypt, when European rivalry crashed directly into the Islamic world - and reshaped geopolitics for centuries to come.

We can point to any of these moments as a beginning, although history doesn't really offer such neat starting lines. It moves instead through overlapping cycles: economic expansion and contraction, social cohesion and fragmentation, geopolitical ascent and decline.... And eventually all Empires and in reset. Alongside the phases are natural disasters, which have killed more people than wars, and technological revolutions, which have shifted power more decisively than ideology ever could. The printing press, steam power, oil, electricity, nuclear energy, silicon chips, AI - each altered who led and who followed. Our present “Troubles” are less a sudden rupture and more a predictable phase in these long rhythms. Who knows how or when this particular Order will end. 

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2. History In The Public Mind

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Those timelines we discussed are not merely charts of events; they are reflections of how societies remember. They reveal which episodes we choose as origins and how we connect causes across centuries. History is always a story of push and pull as is individual choice. Europeans went “over there” driven by trade, ambition and opportunity, convinced of their civilisational, shall we call it "confidence" . Others later came “over here” drawn by stability, law and economic possibility, vibrancy, lower taxes, believing they were entering a functioning civil society (and incidentally hollowing out their own societies that they leave behind because as we know it's the ambitious who leave and the top ten percent who generate maybe 80% of government tax revenue) . That is a society governed by institutions and shared rules rather than clan loyalties or arbitrary force.

For both sides, these movements once felt rational. Expansion created wealth; migration filled labour shortages. Yet scale alters perception. What once appeared episodic and manageable can, at higher volumes, feel continuous and eventually the numbers  become threatening.

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3. Immigration: Then And Now

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Immigration into Britain is not new. After the Second World War, the arrival of the Windrush generation from 1948 onwards followed from the creation of the NHS and the rebuilding of industry. Labour was needed, Commonwealth citizens responded. In 1972, the expulsion of Asians from Uganda by Idi Amin brought another distinct wave, many of whom went on to establish successful businesses and professional careers. These were defined episodes, shaped by particular events.

What feels different today is the continuity and scale. Net migration to the UK in 2023 exceeded 700,000, according to the Office for National Statistics, a figure unprecedented in peacetime. The drivers are structural: ageing populations require workers; service economies rely on lower labour costs; instability abroad pushes people outward. Migration is therefore not simply a matter of people wanting to leave difficult conditions; it is equally about advanced economies demanding labour to sustain growth and support welfare systems. This is less a moral narrative than an economic one.

According to the ONS, Office for National Statistics, the number of people moving permanently into the UK is as follows (note this is long-term immigration ie people entering the UK intending to stay for at least 12 months) :

2023 - 1.47 million

2024 - 1.30 million

2025 - 898,000

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4. Integration, Multiculturalism And Political Cleavage

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Different countries have adopted different responses. France traditionally pursued assimilation, expecting newcomers to adopt a unified civic identity. Britain leaned towards multiculturalism, assuming diverse cultures could coexist under shared legal tolerance. Neither model has been flawless. Assimilation can feel rigid and exclusionary; multiculturalism can drift into parallel communities with limited interaction.

Across Europe, these tensions have fed the rise of populist movements, defined loosely as political currents claiming to defend “ordinary people” against distant elites. Surveys such as Eurobarometer show declining institutional trust since the financial crisis of 2008, suggesting that dissatisfaction extends beyond immigration alone. Yet macro-level political cleavage does not necessarily translate into daily interpersonal hostility. On the ground, most people work together, live alongside one another, manage the practicalities of coexistence, even share the exoticism, with far less drama than vote seeking political discourse click baiting social media suggest.

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5. The Individual Perspective And The Question Of Stress

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This is where perspective matters. At the level of personal interaction, civility - simple mutual respect in public behaviour - resolves more tension than grand ideological arguments. Global interconnection, driven by technology and trade, is not easily reversible without significant economic contraction. We may debate policy, quotas and enforcement, but the broader system of interdependence is unlikely to disappear even as national interests harden around spheres of influence.

From a personal standpoint, one of the most reliable predictors of longevity and wellbeing is adaptability. Psychological flexibility reduces stress and enhances resilience. Curiosity about differences, or at least tolerance, rather than fear of them, lowers emotional temperature and allows individuals to navigate change without constant agitation, internal and external. It is rarely helpful to approach vast historical processes with permanent outrage. An engineer’s mindset serves better: observe the system, measure its effects, adjust where possible and avoid unnecessary emotional entanglement.... "just get on with it". 

We should remember that history will continue its cycles regardless of our preferences. The practical response is neither denial nor despair but temperate engagement. Study the forces at work, act responsibly each within their own sphere of influence, remain civil, and cultivate a low-stress adaptability. In unsettled times, that may be one of the most amazingly radical choices available.

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KIDS LEARNING FROM STREET ART

13 February 2026

 little girl looking at a street mural

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A great photo, take the time to look at it carefully - built up from two layers, plus a third, hidden, layer. What's happening here?

First, is the graffiti itself, painted across a steel roller shutter and the wall of what looks like a worn-out industrial building, could be in Manchester or East London. It’s colourful, chaotic, doubtless the work of multiple street artists over time, the symbols go back a long way.

You’ve got the Union Jack defaced, the CND peace symbol, hearts, a bright green frog emoticon, the number 86.

The slashed Union Jack says "I reject" or "I'm frustrated". The hearts soften the tone - hearts signify universal love, love wins, follow your heart. The frog adds a touch of irony - don't be so serious. "86" nix is street slang for "get rid of" - to eject, dismiss, or remove (someone). "26" bottom right is where a signature goes: the artist or crew collective or maybe the year of the latest contribution.

Symbols from late-20th-century Britain, 1977 “God Save the Queen, the fascist regime”, Ban the Bomb, Corbyn-era symbolism. The more things change, the more they rhyme.

Second, is the little girl. She's not painting. She's not reacting dramatically. She's just standing there, slightly detached - she could be licking an ice cream, but she isn't. Maybe she looks passive, but she isn't neutral.

The question we have to ask ourselves is: what is she understanding from the kaleidoscope of symbols? Is this just background noise to her? Is it liberating? Does it even register as "art" or is it just chaos without meaning?

To put a child in front of symbols is not going to be something passive for the child, children are learning, absorbing a narrative, she is learning about the country she's growing up in.

And then there’s the third element.This is the one that isn't there: the grandfather, not there in the photo because he is looking at it. “How things have changed”, he exclaims. That’s the emotional frame around the whole photograph. So this isn’t just about street art, in actual fact it’s about continuity. About whether the transmission between generations is smooth, or whether there’s likely to be rupture (an end-of-empire theme beloved of this blog). If you, granddad, see broken symbols, she might see colour and expression. How things have changed, yea - in the same symbols from your youth and hers, you see decline and erosion and frustration at the lack of progress, but she may see freedom and liberation and hope.

Put all this together and here is a really powerful image. A child placed deliberately in front of a frazzle of political and emotional graffiti, symbols and history. Big State narratives being overwritten by youth culture. Authority challenged, icons defaced, messages all mixed and broken up. To one eye it looks anarchic, post-industrial, "no more heroes anymore"; to another, it looks creative, playful and pluralistic - everyone gets a chance to chip in.

So this isn't so much a mural about political change, it's a mural about inheritance. Legacy, transmission, inheritance. What grandparents are anxious be transmitted through their offspring to their grandchildren, and what of that their grandchildren are sufficiently interested to understand and want for their own futures. 

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THE NEXT COMMODITY BOOM IS FORMING

9 February 2026

This piece is presented by Michael Howell of CrossBorder Capital. Focused on the capital-flows framework. 

See also presentation by Frank Giustra. 

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1. The Central Thesis – Capital Flows Drive Everything

Michael Howell’s core argument is simple but powerful.
Markets are not driven primarily by narratives, valuations, or even fundamentals.
They are driven by capital flows.

Capital flows – the movement of liquidity between credit, equities, commodities, and the real economy – operate in long, observable cycles.
Historically, these cycles last around five to six years.

• Liquidity first enters credit markets
• Then flows into equities
• Finally moves into commodities
• And ultimately spills into the real economy

According to Howell, we are now firmly in the commodity phase of this cycle.

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2. Why A Commodity Boom Is Already Underway

From late 2022 onwards, global liquidity has been rising strongly.
That liquidity is now reaching the point where it expresses itself through real assets.

Evidence Howell points to:

• Multiple commodities at or near all-time highs
• Gold leading the move
• Industrial metals beginning to follow
• Capital migrating away from financial assets

This is not speculative enthusiasm.
It is the mechanical result of money moving through the system.

Importantly, Howell argues that 2026 real-economy growth is likely to surprise on the upside, particularly in the US, precisely because liquidity has been elevated for over a year.

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3. Gold – Not A Debasement Trade (Yet)

One of Howell’s most contrarian claims concerns gold.

Gold is often described as an inflation hedge.
He refines this sharply.

Gold is a hedge against monetary inflation, not necessarily consumer inflation.

Monetary inflation – expansion of money supply by central banks
Consumer inflation – rising prices experienced by households

If today’s gold rally were driven by global monetary debasement:

• Bond markets would be selling off sharply
• Bitcoin would be surging
• Inflation expectations would be exploding

None of these are happening.

This is the “dog that didn’t bark”.

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4. China As The Marginal Price-Setter Of Gold

So why is gold rising so strongly?

Howell’s answer is China.

Key points:

• The People’s Bank of China has injected roughly $1.1 trillion into its system
• China is monetising debt rather than defaulting
• The yuan–dollar rate is managed and misleading
• Gold priced in yuan reveals the truth

Measured against gold, the yuan has effectively devalued by 25–30% over two years.

Gold is acting as the true currency benchmark.
Through persistent gold buying, China is exporting its internal monetary expansion into global prices.

This is why Howell argues that:

• The Shanghai Gold Exchange is now the marginal price-setter
• COMEX and London are increasingly price-takers

Asia, not the West, is setting the gold price.

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5. Valuing Commodities – Ratios, Not Prices

Howell dismisses single-price thinking.

Commodity valuation has two moving parts:

1. Real exchange ratios
2. Currency of denomination

Examples:

• Copper-to-gold ratio
• Oil-to-gold ratio

In recessions, these ratios fall.
In booms, they rise.

Today:

• Gold is rising due to monetary expansion also geopolitical adventures
• Industrial ratios are rising due to economic growth

When both move together, a commodity boom is inevitable.

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6. How Long Does The Boom Last?

Howell expects the cycle to run well into 2026.

Supporting factors:

• Strong US growth momentum
• Fiscal expansion in the US and Europe
• Heavy AI-related capital spending
• Chinese stimulus
• German fiscal easing

However, he issues a crucial warning.

Strong real economies do not guarantee strong financial markets.

2008 is the historical reminder:

• Commodities surged
• Oil exceeded $100
• Financial markets collapsed

Liquidity in the real economy means less liquidity for financial assets.

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7. Investment Implications - Think Real, Not Financial

Howell’s positioning guidance is pragmatic.

Avoid:

• Over-concentration in US tech
• Pure financial-asset exposure

Favour:

• Commodities
• Mining and resource equities
• Energy stocks
• Consumer staples

He suggests a barbell approach:

• Real assets on one side
• Defensive cash-flow businesses on the other

Gold, in his view, remains a strategic hold, not a trade.

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8. The Dollar – Dominant But Politically Pressured

Howell rejects claims of imminent dollar collapse.

• There is no credible reserve-currency rival
• Dollar credit markets remain dominant

However:

• US policymakers want a weaker dollar
• Short-term weakness is plausible
• Longer-term demand for dollars may return due to growth and safety

Gold may be the only meaningful competitor, but it is not a functional reserve currency.

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Glossary

Capital Flows – Movements of liquidity between asset classes that determine market cycles.

Global Liquidity – The total availability of money and credit within the financial system.

Monetary Inflation – Expansion of money supply, usually by central banks.

Commodity Phase – The stage in a liquidity cycle where capital concentrates in real assets.

Marginal Price-Setter – The market where the last buyer or seller determines global price.

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Sources

• Market Insider interview transcript with Michael Howell
• CrossBorder Capital research notes
• Historical commodity and liquidity cycle studies (IMF, BIS)

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