Showing posts with label #invest. Show all posts
Showing posts with label #invest. Show all posts

Monday, 28 April 2025

USING STRIKE PUTS AS PORTFOLIO PROTECTION

28 April 2025

What would it be worth to you to be sure that your portfolio couldn't lose more than 10% this year? That's what buying a put option could do for you, and at little cost.

Because people think that buying options is a most complicated subject, we are going to start complicated, in the introduction below! 

But all the terms and ideas used will be unpacked in the following few paragraphs, and at the end, for anyone who gets to the end, there is a lively discussion. 

The discussion recaps all that has been explained, and the reader will realise that actually this is a sensible, practical and pretty easy-to-understand subject.

First, the Contents...


Using Strike Puts as Portfolio Protection

Contents

1. Introduction

2. What is a Put Option?

3. How Buying a Put Protects Your Portfolio

4. Understanding the Cost of a Put

5. The Role of Volatility (VIX)

6. A Worked Example

7. Advantages of Using Strike Puts

8. Disadvantages to Consider

9. UK Platforms offering options trading

10. Conclusion

11. NOTE on the VIX

12. Listen to a lively discussion…

13. Glossary


1. Introduction

When markets are rising steadily, it is easy to forget about risk. Yet experienced investors know that protecting a portfolio is just as important as growing it.

One simple tool for this is the strike put - a basic form of portfolio insurance.

The key is to apply it before panic sets in, ie at times of low volatility (as can be measured by the VIX). 

Buying out-of-the-money (OTM) put options is a core hedging idea 

This strategy, associated with Mark Spitzagel, involves paying a regular cost (negative carry) for the potential of a huge payout ("bang for the buck") if a major market crash occurs.

OTM put options can provide significant returns (e.g., 10x or even 70x return on the cost of the put) during sharp market declines, covering a substantial portion of portfolio losses even with a small allocation (e.g., 1 or 2% of portfolio value).

Risk Tolerance and Strike Selection: A fairly conservative investor might prefer ITM or ATM options, while a trader with a high risk tolerance might prefer OTM options for their potential for higher percentage gains ("Options Basics"). The goal at a minimum is protection against major crashes, not just small dips as in the worked example below.

This insurance is most cost-effective when volatility is low and options are cheap, ideally purchased when nobody else is thinking about hedging. The strategy requires a regular cost (e.g., 1-2% of portfolio yearly) as the options often expire worthless, but this is the planned cost of the insurance. It requires effort, knowledge, patience, and the ability to accept this negative carry. The goal is protection against massive crashes, not small dips.


2. What is a Put Option?

An option is a contract that gives the buyer the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell an underlying security at a certain price — this price is called the strike price

Options must also be exercised by a specific expiration date.

Options are derivative investments, since they derive their value from the underlying assets. They can be bought and sold on an exchange, just like the underlying assets they’re associated with.

A put option gives the buyer the right (but not the obligation) to sell an asset at a fixed price, ie the strike price, within a specified time.

It is like buying an insurance policy: if your asset falls below the strike price, you have the right to sell it at that protected level.


3. How Buying a Put Protects Your Portfolio

If you own a stock portfolio worth £100,000, you could buy put options on a broad market index (like the FTSE 100 or S&P 500).

This guarantees you the ability to sell at the strike price, even if the market crashes.

You effectively lock in a minimum portfolio value for the cost of the option premium.


4. Understanding the Cost of a Put

The premium is the price you pay for the insurance. Several factors influence this premium:

  • How far "out of the money" the strike price is (e.g., 1% below current value costs more than 10% below)

  • How much time is left until the option expires

  • Current market volatility

A 1% out-of-the-money put is relatively close to the current market level, so it offers strong protection.

Suppose you hold a £100,000 portfolio of SPY shares, on which you wish to buy a put. SPY is at 610. You want protection if it falls 1% or more. That protection costs $13 per share.

  • You buy a 1% OTM put at a cost of £2,130.09 when the VIX is low, say below 20.

  • Strike level: 99% of today’s market level.

Situation:

Portfolio Value = $100,000
SPY Price = $610
Require 1% out-of-the-money (OTM) protection
Put Option Cost = $13 per share
Strike Price = 99% of $610 = $603.90

Number of SPY shares
 = 100,000/610 = 163.93
(Normally, you can only buy puts on lots of a hundred shares - you should buy for either one hundred or two hundred shares - but let's forget about that for this example.)

Premium 
= Number of Shares 163.93 * Cost per Share $13
= $2,130.09

Scenario A:
  • Market falls 20%.

  • Your portfolio value without protection: $80,000.

  • With the put option exercised, you can sell at 99% of original value, losing only the premium.

Scenario B:

  • Market stays flat or goes up.

  • You lose the $2,130.09 premium but retain your full portfolio value.

Scenario C:

  • Say, instead, you bought the same put but when the VIX was high eg above 40 or 50 - and it cost you $35 a share = $5,737.55

  • Protection is still there, but at a much higher cost.

Preparation costs much less than buying insurance in a last-minute panic.


5. The Role of Volatility (VIX)

The VIX Index measures expected future volatility in the market.

When the VIX is low, option premiums are cheap.

When the VIX is high, premiums become expensive.

The best time to buy protection is when volatility is low - not during a crash when risks and volatility are high, and everyone is rushing to buy insurance.

Buying puts when the VIX is calm preserves your purchasing power.

Likewise, selling the puts or taking profits when volatility spikes can sometimes be a smart tactic, even before a full market fall. You can sell anytime up to the expiration date.


6. A Worked Example

Here is an example break down to show an actual cost:

Event Date SPY Level Strike Level Put Cost (USD) VIX Level (Approx.) Percentage Cost (Put/Strike price) Outcome
Late January 610 600 (1%) 13 Low (VIX around 15-17) 2.17% (13/600) Bought put protection cheaply
Mid-February 610 600 16 Still low (VIX slightly up) 2.67% Put cheaper temporarily
April 8 497 492 (June 30 expiry) 30 High (VIX above 40) 6.04% Insurance much more expensive
April 8 (shorter expiry) 497 492 (April 25 expiry) 20 High (VIX above 40) 4.02% 2.5 weeks protection expensive

Notes:

  • The return on the initial $13 on the Jan put was approximately 8× (put rose to $108) when SPY fell 18%.

  • At low VIX, six-month protection cost about 2% of portfolio value ($2,130.09 / $100,000)

  • At high VIX, two-month protection cost about 6%.


7. Advantages of Using Strike Puts

  • Defined maximum loss — you know the worst case, you can stay in the market regardless.

  • Psychological benefit — easier to hold positions calmly....and sleep at night.

  • Flexibility — you can profit from volatility spikes even if the market does not crash.


8. Disadvantages to Consider

  • Premium cost reduces returns if no crash occurs.

  • Timing matters — mistimed purchases can waste money.

  • False sense of security if not properly sized against actual portfolio risks.


 

Cost / potential benefit of buying a put option on SPY in Feb, when the VIX, was low and selling on an 18% correction - 7-fold return

9. UK Platforms offering options trading:

  • Most UK "investment platforms" (e.g., HL, II, AJ Bell) do not offer listed options trading.

  • Trading212 focuses only on stocks and CFDs — no options.

10. Conclusion

Using strike puts to protect a portfolio is simple in theory but demands discipline in practice.

The insurance must be bought ahead of events and when volatility is low.

If managed properly, it can be a valuable tool for preserving capital without sacrificing upside potential.


 11. NOTE on the VIX

The VIX measures market expectations of future volatility, not past market movements.

It is calculated by looking at prices of both put and call options on the S&P 500, typically with maturities between 3 to 5 weeks ahead, and across various out-of-the-money levels.

The VIX reflects what the market expects regarding future movement in the S&P 500.

For retail investors, trading options directly on the S&P 500 or its ETF (SPY) is often cheaper and simpler than trading the VIX.

Buying options on the VIX involves complexities because:

  • You are trading options on futures, not directly on an equity index.

  • Futures-based options introduce additional technical factors.

Since the VIX is already derived from S&P 500 options, betting directly on the S&P 500 provides more direct exposure.

Therefore, it is often more practical to hedge by using SPY options rather than VIX.


12. Listen to a lively discussion 

Aimed at enlightening the beginner investor wanting to protect their portfolio in these crazy times:



13. Glossary:

  • Put Option:
    A financial contract giving the holder the right (but not the obligation) to sell an asset at a specified price (the strike price) within a set time period.

  • Strike Price:
    The price at which the holder of a put option can sell the underlying asset.

  • Premium:
    The price paid to purchase an option. It is a non-refundable cost.

  • Out-of-the-Money (OTM):
    An option where the strike price is below (for a put) the current market price of the underlying asset.

  • S&P 500:
    A stock market index that measures the performance of 500 large companies listed on stock exchanges in the United States.

  • SPY ETF:
    An exchange-traded fund that tracks the performance of the S&P 500 index.

  • VIX:
    The Volatility Index, often called the "fear gauge," measures market expectations of future volatility based on S&P 500 options.

  • Volatility:
    Measures how widely values are spread around the mean. The square root of the average of the squares of the deviations from the mean, aka the standard deviation. Note that...

  • Variance:
    is the sum of deviations from the mean, and standard deviation is the square root of variance. If you wonder why all this squaring, it is just to obliterate the difference between +deviations and -ve deviations.

  • Implied Volatility:
    Looks forward in time. The market's forecast of a likely movement in a security's price, reflected in the price of options.

  • Market Makers:
    Firms or individuals who provide liquidity by standing ready to buy and sell securities or options at publicly quoted prices.

  • Hedge:
    A financial strategy used to reduce the risk of adverse price movements in an asset, often by using options.

  • Portfolio Insurance:
    Techniques such as buying put options to limit potential losses in an investment portfolio.

  • Liquidity:
    The ability to buy or sell an asset or security quickly without causing a significant movement in its price.

  • Annualised Cost:
    The cost of a financial product or protection expressed on a yearly basis, often used to compare short-term and long-term costs.

  • Roll (Options):
    Closing an existing option position and opening a new one with a later expiry or different strike price, typically to extend protection or lock in profits.

  • Spread (in options):
    The difference between the bid and ask prices for an option. A tighter spread usually means better liquidity.

  • Market Panic:
    A period when investors rush to sell assets due to fear, causing sharp falls in asset prices and spikes in volatility.

  • Index:
    A statistical measure of changes in a portfolio of stocks representing a portion of the overall market.



  • [End]

Thursday, 10 April 2025

YOUR INVESTMENT STRATEGY

10 April 2025

YOUR INVESTMENT STRATEGY


Your investment strategies are clear
 
- for short-term projects such as saving for a deposit on a house*, then put your money into something safe - a single government bond that matures in a few months to coincide with your anticipated purchase; or even easier is a money market fund.

- for longer term projects going as far as retirement, just carry on drip feeding into a world index with a low fee - VHVG, though ACWI is the current favourite because it is all the world, including emerging markets, and because it's fee is half that of VHVG, you can buy this on InvestEngine.

- this is for 90% or so of your investment, maybe 100% till you get more adept, so this is your stalwart fund; 

and you can have a satellite flutter fund where you try out a few ideas - e g an energy ETF, or small caps, or copper, or gold, or some single stocks... For bigger gains, or of course, bigger losses!

NOTE

Any global index will still be dominated by the US, but worth bearing in mind that the US has done tremendously well this last decade on account of the magnificent seven, which are absolutely superb companies; but since 1975 US markets have beaten other markets on an annual basis on only 55% of the time. This year-to-date, Europe has out-performed the US.

* there will be plenty of gilts to choose from, so consider those maturing at around the same time, but with different coupons, and pick the one with the lowest coupon as the gain at maturity will be mainly capital on which there is no income tax.

** of course, it's time in the market, not market timing for us amateurs, but if you want to chance your arm, try doping your monthly transfers according to the data point in the Bollinger Bands or according to the RSI. If you want to manage major turning points, then try Fibonacci.

Wednesday, 12 March 2025

MEDIUM TERM MARKET TREND MODEL TURNS BEARISH.

12 March 2025

Medium-Term Market Trend Model Turns Bearish

Summary of this report from Investopedia's Chart Advisor.

Key takeaway : The medium-term trend turning bearish suggests that investors should be cautious in the coming months.

With things as they are today, maybe the best tactic is wait-and-hope for a bounce over the next week or two....perhaps up until june... and then out of developed market ETFs for the remainder of the year.... "all things being equal", ceteris paribus, meaning unless the indicators change. Because this Trump transition will take a year or two and there could likely be many hiccups along the way.

And note that unless the whole world economy flips from west to east, then if there's a downturn in America, it'll be worse for the emerging markets.

The American economy is looking shaky, there's a lot of uncertainty and unpredictability around, and these tariffs are more specifically what's causing the current short and medium term bearishness.

If the long-term is looking okay, it's because Trump's strategy is putting us in a transition period. But for now, the focus is on capital preservation and not growth. Just be max. cautious and think short term only.

This article comes in six parts:
 
  I - The first part defines what short medium and long-term means. 
 II - The second is the key takeaways from the report.  
III - The third is a summary of the report
IV - Then we have some of the key technical terms that you need to understand to make sense of the report.
 V - Conclusion
 VI - And finally, the actual report itself from Investopedia - 

Part I

So, reading this report, what does "short-, medium-, and long-term time frames" mean:

1. Short-Term:

Days to weeks (typically up to 3 months).

The report references multiple short-term bearish signals in 2024, which were seen as temporary pullbacks within a broader bullish medium term trend.

Traders often look at daily and weekly price action, moving averages, and momentum indicators for short-term trends.

2. Medium-Term:

Several months to a year (typically 3 months to 1 year).

The Market Trend Model turning bearish on this medium timeframe suggests that your outlook for the next several months should be risk-averse. Alexis is right to put his money into short term money markets, or perhaps a bond ladder.

Investors use indicators like the 200-day moving average, 200 SMA, Fibonacci retracements, and market breadth metrics to gauge medium-term trends.

( i've defined these technical terms below....)

3. Long-Term:

Several years (typically 1 year or more, up to a decade).

The report states that the long-term trend remains bullish, meaning the market’s broader secular trend is still positive despite short- and medium-term pullbacks.

Long-term investors focus on fundamentals, macroeconomic trends, and major cycles rather than daily or monthly price movements.

Part II

Key Takeaway:

The short-term trend can fluctuate often and is relevant for traders.

The medium-term trend turning bearish suggests that investors should be cautious in the coming months.

The long-term trend remains bullish, implying that the overall structural bull market is still intact, despite near-term corrections.

Part III

Summarising the report:

1. Medium-Term Market Trend Model Turns Bearish
The Market Trend Model has turned bearish on the medium-term for the first time since October 2023.

The long-term trend remains bullish, indicating that the broader secular market trend is still intact.

The shift to a bearish medium-term trend suggests a greater focus on capital preservation rather than growth.

In 2024, multiple short-term bearish signals occurred, but they were contained within a medium-term bullish trend, allowing for buyable pullbacks.

However, the 2025 market trends are now diverging from 2024, raising concerns that the market may not follow the same bullish recovery pattern.

2. 5500 Becomes Minimum Downside Target for S&P 500
The S&P 500 has dropped nearly 10% from its recent all-time high of 6150, a decline similar to the July 2024 pullback.

The key support level of 5850 has been broken, and the index has fallen below the 200-day moving average, reinforcing a bearish outlook.

A downside target of 5500 is based on a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the previous uptrend (August to December 2024), suggesting a potential support level for a countertrend bounce.

The 200-day moving average is now acting as a resistance level for the market, and with RSI (Relative Strength Index) oversold conditions, further capitulation (forced selling) may occur before a possible rebound.

3. Breadth Conditions Continue to Deteriorate
The market’s breadth indicators (measuring how many stocks are participating in the trend) have weakened, with less than 50% of S&P 500 stocks now above their 200-day moving average.

Historically, when this breadth indicator drops below 50%, it has signaled further market weakness, as seen in September 2024, which preceded a six-week market decline.

The current market correction appears to be evolving into a major correction rather than a minor pullback, increasing downside risks.

Part IV

Defining technical terms

1. Market Trend Model – A proprietary tool that determines whether the market is in a bullish or bearish phase based on price action, trend indicators, and breadth measures.

2. Secular Trend – A long-term market trend that lasts years or decades, regardless of short-term fluctuations.

3. Fibonacci Retracement – A technical analysis tool that identifies potential support and resistance levels based on key percentage retracements (23.6%, 38.2%, 50%, 61.8%, etc.). The 61.8% level is considered particularly significant.

4. 200-Day Moving Average – A key long-term indicator that helps determine the market’s primary trend. Falling below this level is generally seen as a bearish signal.

5. RSI (Relative Strength Index) – A momentum indicator that measures whether a stock or index is overbought (above 70) or oversold (below 30). An oversold condition suggests a potential short-term bounce.

6. Market Breadth – A measure of how many stocks are participating in a market trend. When fewer stocks remain above their 200-day moving average, it indicates weakening market strength.

7. Stochastic oscillators or stochastics are based on the idea that closing prices should confirm the trend.
Both RSI and stochastics are used as overbought/oversold indicators.
High readings suggest an overbought market and low readings are indicative of oversold conditions.

8. Capitulation – A situation where investors panic-sell their assets, leading to a sharp drop in prices before a potential rebound.

Part V

Conclusion:

The shift in the medium-term trend to bearish, the break below key support levels, and deteriorating market breadth suggest that the S&P 500 may be entering a more prolonged correction rather than a temporary pullback. Investors should focus on capital preservation and watch for signs of market capitulation before considering re-entry.

Part VI


from Investopedia's Chart Advisor,
David Keller, CMT

Three parts:

1/ Medium-Term Market Trend Model Turns Bearish

2/ 5500 Becomes Minimum Downside Target For S&P 500

3/ Breadth Conditions Continue to Deteriorate

Investopedia is partnering with CMT Association on this newsletter. 

 1/ Medium-Term Market Trend Model Turns Bearish

Our proprietary Market Trend Model turned bearish last Friday on the medium-term time frame for the first time since October 2023. While our long-term model remains bullish, suggesting the secular trend still remains intact, this bearish signal on the medium-term time frame tells us to focus more on capital preservation than capital growth.

Note how in 2024 we had five different bearish signals on the short-term time frame, yet the medium-term trend model remained bullish through the entire calendar year. This configuration represented a buyable pullback within a cyclical uptrend, since the medium-term and long-term trends remained firmly in the bullish range.

While we’ve been tracking rotations in market leadership, as well as bearish momentum and breadth divergences since November 2024, the continued bullish reading on the medium-term trend model helped us remain constructive into Q1 2025. There’s no guarantee that we’ll see a repeat of 2022 or any other bear market year, but the fact remains that the trends in 2025 are starting to very much diverge from the bullish path of 2024.

2/ 5500 Becomes Minimum Downside Target For S&P 500

After Monday’s step selloff to start the week, the S&P 500 index is now down almost 10% from its most recent all-time high around 6150. This means that the current pullback is basically in line with the July 2024 drawdown in terms of price and time.

With the key support level of 5850 in the rearview mirror, and with the 200-day moving average violated on Monday, we have established an initial downside target of 5500. That would represent a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the August 2024 to December 2024 uptrend phase, where we would expect at least some sort of countertrend bounce.  

The 200-day moving average now becomes resistance above the current price action, and given that the S&P 500 reached an RSI oversold condition for the first time since the August low, we would be looking for other signs of short-term capitulation starting this week.

3/ Breadth Conditions Continue to Deteriorate

Up through the end of last week, some of our longer-term breadth indicators remained bullish, but Monday’s selloff appears to have taken one more breadth indicator off the “still bullish” list. With less than 50% of S&P 500 members remaining above their 200-day moving average, we can now add “lack of breadth support” to the list of bearish market characteristics.

Going back to August 2024, that initial pullback from SPX 4600 appeared to be a minor pullback as this market breadth indicator remained above 50%. With most S&P 500 stocks still above their long-term trend barometer, how bearish could things really be?

Then in mid-September, we saw the indicator push below 50% as the S&P 500 made a new swing low. The market ended up going lower for another six weeks before eventually finding a bottom just above 4100 in late October. Now with less than 50% of S&P 500 members remaining above their 200-day, the current corrective phase is beginning to look more like a major correction as opposed to a tactical pullback.

[End]

Saturday, 22 February 2025

HAVE MARKETS PEAKED, OR IS THIS JUST A PAUSE

22 February 2025

There's something going on in the markets. They are set to pause, perhaps worse. Why?

Markets seem to be topping. Take VHVG, SGLN, ZPRW and WSML, draw a horizontal line at what looks like the top, and then mark in a stop loss 7% below that. As / if price dips towards that stop loss, we should be thinking about what to do next if we are to preserve wealth.


For example, this chart, taken from 11 February, shows that for YTD, VHVG (developed world markets) has been trying without success to breakthrough 92.30. It's much the same for the others, and it's still the same today.

So it seems that after reaching new peaks, financial markets have decided to take a breather this week, spooked by the spectres of a trade war, the possible return of inflation meaning at that interest rates will be on hold, and the ongoing geopolitical uncertainties in Ukraine, Palestine and the Middle East, and China. 

The major indexes may have paused, but overall momentum remains intact. There is confidence from continuing positive fundamentals and earnings results, a process both started in Riyadh to end forever wars, to judge from volumes investors keep buying. Markets on the march often pause to rest and when good news emerges they recover and continue up - recall the taper tantrums of 2013, the covid crash of 2020 and the fed hike fears of 2023.

For a good understanding of the  macroeconomics of the moment, listen to Luke Gromen. Interesting answer on revaluing gold to question two. It's hard to see how this could ever happen. For a fuller explanation, listen to Joseph Wang

The baseline understanding of the price of gold. is that 

•  rising inflation would be dealt with by rising interest rates, which would strengthen the dollar and increase its attractiveness as a safe haven vis-à-vis gold

• remember too that, as a safe haven in times of geopolitical attention, investors prefer gold - safer them treasuries. But note that with the arrival of Trump, tensions are lessening. 

• And thirdly for reasons - the narrowing interest rate differential between Japan and the States - although the dollar has been weakening against DXY, this has not led to a decline in the value of gold.

• So the conclusion would seem to be that gold is at a high and possibly an all year high, and it might be worth switching to silver.

With significant events on the horizon this weekend, German elections being one, and next week, investors should brace themselves for some volatility, but the overall message is continue as you were, cautious commodities, keep an eye on the Japanese Yen as this could likely be the main driver of US equity markets for the next few months.

Footnote - risks are building:

It's worth noting that margin balances are increasing and investors are piling into ETF, with leveraged ETFs getting more attention than normal. 

This is okay as momentum is still there, it is a sign of confidence. But if there is a reversal, the losses could be big and then you get what's called margin call and traders could be forced to sell assets in order to cover their borrowings. This will reduce liquidity and have a downward effect.