Showing posts with label #EndOfEmpire. Show all posts
Showing posts with label #EndOfEmpire. Show all posts

Tuesday, 28 April 2026

IS RUSSIA IN ITS HEART STILL EUROPEAN?

28 April 2026


1. IS RUSSIA IN ITS HEART STILL EUROPEAN?

SUMMARY

Russia’s roots are unmistakably European. From the river traders of the Kievan Rus linking the Baltic to Byzantium, to the conversion to Orthodox Christianity in 988 under Vladimir the Great, the foundations were laid firmly within the European world.

Even the Mongol period did not break that trajectory. Moscow rose in power under the Golden Horde, but the civilisational orientation remained westward. That choice became explicit under Peter the Great, who built Saint Petersburg facing the Baltic and embedded Russia into European culture and diplomacy.

For centuries, Russia was not outside Europe but one of its major poles - sometimes rival, often uneasy, but undeniably part of the same system.

The real question today is not whether Russia is European, but whether Europe and Russia still recognise each other as belonging to the same civilisation.

 Russia - 12 moments in The Story of a European Civilisation

  • Civilisation - a shared system of culture, religion, and political organisation
  • Pole - a major centre of power within a wider system

2. Origins – Kievan Rus And The European Frame

Until 2022 - and certainly before 2014 - Russia had largely seen itself as part of Europe. That instinct runs deep in its history. It goes back to the origins of the Kievan Rus, founded by Scandinavian traders and warriors, often linked to Sweden, who sailed down the great river systems and established Kyiv as a trading post between the North and the Byzantine and Islamic worlds.

“Rus” is usually associated with these groups, sometimes linked to rowing crews, "rus" might best translate as "oar", though the exact meaning is debated. What matters is the direction of travel. From the beginning, this was a civilisation plugged into European and Mediterranean trade networks, not an isolated eastern outpost.

  • Kievan Rus - early medieval state linking Northern Europe with Byzantium and the Islamic world
  • Varangians - Scandinavian traders and warriors active in Eastern Europe

3. Christianity - A Strategic And Civilisational Choice

The Rus converted to Christianity in 988 under Vladimir the Great, drawing from the Byzantine Empire and therefore the Eastern Orthodox Church. This was not just a spiritual step but a strategic one. It brought legitimacy to a Moscow elite ruling over ethnically diverse lands, it strengthened trade links, and it aligned the state with a powerful and sophisticated civilisation.

As with the Roman Empire before it, adopting Christianity helped unify different ethnicities and cultures into a common defining order - that sacralised political authority, that established a shared moral code, that gave the state a sense of providential mission. It also placed Rus firmly within the wider European world, albeit on its eastern, Orthodox side rather than the Latin Catholic western wing.

  • Orthodox Christianity - Eastern branch of Christianity rooted in Byzantium
  • Sacralised authority - political power presented as divinely sanctioned
  • Providential mission - belief in a purpose guided by divine will

4. The Mongol Period – A Shift In Power, Not Identity

I’m not entirely sure how deep the Mongol influence ran, but under the Golden Horde (descendants of Genghis Khan), the princes of Moscow were granted authority to collect taxes on behalf of the Mongol rulers. They used this position to build wealth and authority, and little by little Moscow emerged as the dominant centre of the Russian lands.

Some historians argue that this period of Mongolian rule shaped Russia’s later centralised and autocratic tendencies. Others see continuity with earlier European patterns. The evidence allows both readings. What can be said is that although the Mongols were militarily strong, they were culturally limited, leaving a vacuum in which the Russian state continued to look outward for its identity.

  • Golden Horde - Mongol polity that dominated Russian lands in the medieval period
  • Centralisation - concentration of power in a single authority

5. Medieval Europe – Integration With A Difference

In medieval times, Rus elites intermarried with European royal families and participated in a shared aristocratic culture. They were clearly part of Europe, even if not of Latin Christendom. Politically and religiously they belonged to the Greek and Eastern Orthodox world, which gave them a slightly different trajectory.

There is a long-standing argument that this eastern outlook explains later authoritarian tendencies. Another view, associated with Emmanuel Todd, is that political culture grows more from family structures and social organisation, bottom up, rather than from religion or elite preferences alone. On that reading, Russia is not unique, and comparisons with countries like Germany are not out of place.

  • Aristocratic culture - shared elite customs across European ruling classes
  • Political culture - shared assumptions about power: West - liberty, rule of law, pluralism; Russia - order, authority, state primacy

6. Westernisation – A Conscious Turn Towards Europe

Then came a decisive moment with Peter the Great. By building Saint Petersburg facing the Baltic, he made what can only be described as a civilisational choice. Russia would look west.

From that point on, the direction is unmistakable. Western technology was imported, elites adopted Western dress and customs, and by the 19th century Russian high society spoke French, the lingua franca of diplomacy, and moved fully within European cultural and political life.

Western Europe was the benchmark. Even those who argued that Russia was something separate, something Slavic, were arguing against that benchmark, which rather proves the point.

  • Westernisation - adoption of Western European culture and institutions
  • Lingua franca - common language used for communication between elites French from roughly seventeenth to early twentieth centuries, pre-World War One.

7. Enlightenment – Adoption Without Transformation

Russia did experience the Enlightenment, but in a distinct form. Under rulers such as Catherine the Great, ideas from Western Europe were consciously imported, promoting education, science, and administrative reform, and engaging with thinkers such as Voltaire. Yet unlike in France or Britain, where Enlightenment thought challenged and ultimately reshaped political authority, in Russia it was absorbed into the existing system of rule.

The result was not liberalisation but a form of enlightened absolutism, in which reason and modernisation strengthened rather than constrained the state. This is where Russia’s European identity becomes more complex - European in culture and intellect, but distinct in political form, with power remaining centralised, authority personalised, and the state prevailing over society.

  • Enlightenment - movement emphasising reason, science, and critical thought
  • Enlightened absolutism - use of Enlightenment ideas within an absolute monarchy

8. Rivalry Does Not Mean Exclusion

There followed a long period in which Russia was considered by, in particular, the United Kingdom to be its principal rival. Yet rivalry is not exclusion. On the contrary, it confirms Russia’s place within the European system of great powers.

Even after the Soviet Revolution, Russia did not somehow leave Europe intellectually. It remained part of a European tradition of political thought and industrial modernity. After all, Karl Marx was himself a European thinker, and his ideas - that history is driven by class struggle, that capitalism contains the seeds of its own collapse, that the state is an instrument of class power - shaped Russia profoundly.

  • Great Power - a state with major influence in international affairs - is Iran today a fourth great power?
  • Class struggle - conflict between social groups with different economic interests

9. The Modern Break – Competing Readings

The more recent period is where interpretations begin to diverge quite sharply. The post-Cold War “unipolar moment”, particularly under Bill Clinton, marks a phase in which the West expanded its institutional reach, with key steps in the Bucharest Summit of 2008 and especially 2014, when Kyiv began shelling the Donbas and, in response, Russia took back Crimea.

After a turbulent 1990s, the early Putin period saw overtures towards integration with the West, including discussions around NATO and closer ties with the EU. There is disagreement over how feasible these were, and whether the subsequent breakdown was driven more by Western expansion or by Russia’s own strategic choices, given that NATO and the EU claim democratic governance, legal alignment, human rights protections, and shared security frameworks that Russia was not seen to share.

  • Unipolar moment - period of dominance by a single global power, term coined by Charles Krauthammer in 1990
  • Near abroad - former Soviet states seen as strategically important
  • Legal alignment - compatibility of laws and institutions across member states
  • Security framework - shared military and defence arrangements between states
  • Human rights - claims about how individuals should be treated by authority, especially in personal freedoms, legal protection, and political participation.

10. Power, Strategy And The Question Of Exclusion

A longer pattern can be observed in which Britain first, and later the United States, acted in ways that had the effect of pushing Russia towards the margins of Europe and finally out. Thinkers such as Halford Mackinder framed Eurasia as the key to global power, with his “pivot of history” describing a buffer zone from the Baltic to the Black Sea separating sea and land powers.

Whether this amounts to a deliberate exclusion of Russia, or whether Russia’s own behaviour produced that outcome, remains a matter of interpretation, with one side pointing to NATO expansion, institutional gatekeeping, and geopolitical containment; and the other to centralised power, limited pluralism, and divergence from Western legal and political norms..

  • Heartland - central Eurasian landmass seen as the key to global power
  • Buffer zone - region separating rival powers

11. Putin And The European Idea

It is also worth recalling that Vladimir Putin, particularly early in his presidency, did signal an interest in closer integration with Europe, including discussions around NATO and economic alignment with the EU.

It is argued that NATO expansion and support for colour revolutions created security pressures that led Russia to draw a line at Georgia in 2008 and Ukraine in 2014.

  • NATO - Western military alliance formed in 1949
  • Colour revolutions - political movements seeking regime change in post-Soviet states
  • Geopolitical containment - strategy to limit the influence of a rival power
  • Pluralism - presence of multiple competing political interests. Though sometimes this is a bounded pluralism where the people are governed by the uniparty.

12. A Civilisation In Question

So historically, Russia has not been an outsider to Europe. It has been one of its major poles, sometimes aligned, sometimes in rivalry, but always part of the same broad civilisational space.

The real question now is not whether Russia is European. It is whether Western Europe and Russia still recognise each other as belonging to the same civilisation at all, where the boundary between West and East now lies and weather cooperation is possible on matters of great importance to the planet, such as climate stability, nuclear security, and global energy supply.

  • Civilisational space - shared sphere of cultural and historical identity
  • Climate stability - maintaining a balanced global climate system
  • Nuclear security - control and prevention of nuclear weapons use or proliferation
  • Energy supply - availability and flow of essential energy resources

13. Reorientation East

Against that backdrop, Russia has been pushed into a gradual rebalancing towards the East. Strategic alignment with China has deepened across energy, finance, and security, while frameworks such as BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation have taken on greater importance.

At the same time, Russia’s role in West Asia has expanded, from Syria to Iran and the Gulf. The result is a geopolitical posture that looks increasingly Eurasian rather than European - less a natural destination than a strategic adjustment to shifting pressures and constraints.

  • Eurasian - relating to the combined European and Asian landmass
  • Geopolitics - interaction between geography and political power

Friday, 24 April 2026

WHAT COULD A "NEW WORLD ORDER" LOOK LIKE

24 April 2026

We hear all the time that NATO’s advance into Ukraine is seen as an existential threat by Russia. But Russia has long been viewed by Europe as an existential threat, going back to the time of Peter the Great, and as an existential threat to America since 1945. Russia has been the West’s historic enemy for a very long time.

Forget Vietnam, Iraq, and Afghanistan. America - the West - is now being defeated by Russia. If this is true, it is extremely serious. It would represent a tremendous psychological blow on top of the military economic and social significance, and would mark the end of Western dominance. Now add the prospect of defeat in Iran, along with the rise of China.

Trump, the “President of Peace” - really? He looks more like The President of Defeat. Sorry to say that as I do not want the West to lose its place, but why did he not do what he said he would do on his election platform?

By stepping up attacks on the BRICS, he has burned the bridges of a possible multipolar deal. All that America can do now is retreat to its own sphere of influence, its “zone of primacy”, and attempt - unsuccessfully - to manage global energy flows.

If you look at a map of the world, there is Eurasia on one side and the Americas on the other. Eurasia has its Mackinder line in Eastern Europe, and America appears to be building a similar line along the first island chain. Where do Japan, South Korea, the Philippines, and Taiwan sit in all this? Which side of the line are they on?

Then consider the consequences in Europe. Europe is pulling away from America - or the reverse, America retreating to its sphere of influence - and is building its own defence industry. This is funded from the public purse, incidentally, unlike its former car industry.

So we see the UK and Germany leading this rearmament. At Airbus Germany dominates the French in that joint partnership. Today it is Germany and the UK, and they sit on opposite sides of the EU divide. It raises a question: what might a rearmed Germany be thinking about once the fighting in Ukraine formally ends and if America steps back?

America Retreating to its Sphere of Influence

When people say America may “retreat to its sphere of influence”, they usually mean its scaling back commitments in Eurasia, reducing military involvement in distant conflicts and prioritising the Americas and nearby regions. In other words, moving from global management to regional dominance.

This would be a major strategic shift akin to Rome retreating behind the Rhine. It implies accepting limits to power rather than trying to shape the entire world order.

If America had any choice, one perspective says the US is overstretched, retrenchment is inevitable and a smaller sphere is more sustainable. Another says the US still has unmatched global reach and withdrawal would create power vacuums that its rivals China and Russia would expand into.

So from a geopolitical Western perspective, a new world order may not mean “retreat”, it may not be a clean shift. It could be uneven, partial, contested and resisted.

Glossary

Existential threat - a danger perceived to threaten the very survival of a state or system

Multipolar - a global system with several centres of power rather than one dominant hegemon

American Sphere of Influence - North America; Central America, South America
The Caribbean. Within this space, the US has exercised influence through:
Military presence and interventions
Economic dominance via trade and finance
Political leverage over governments
This does not mean total control. But it does mean the US sets many of the rules.
Post-1945 System
After 1945, the US built a much wider, global sphere through alliances and institutions. This includes: Western Europe via NATO, East Asia via alliances with Japan, South Korea, and others.
Global financial influence via the US dollar system.
This is not a classic sphere in the geographic sense. It is more a network of:
Military alliances
Trade systems
Financial dominance
In this extended form, some call this a hegemonic system, or an Empire, rather than a sphere.

Hegemony - dominance by one state over others in a system

Alliance system - a network of formal defence partnerships

BRICS - an economic bloc of emerging powers: Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa (now expanded)

Monroe Doctrine - a US policy opposing European intervention in the Americas

Western Hemisphere - the Americas as a geopolitical region

Mackinder line - derived from Halford Mackinder’s theory dividing land power (Eurasia) from maritime power

Sphere of influence - a region where a state exerts dominant political, economic, or military control.

Primacy - being the leading or most powerful actor in a system

Retreat (geopolitical) - a reduction in global commitments and reach

Regional dominance - focusing power within a defined geographic area

References

1. Halford Mackinder – Democratic Ideals and Reality (1919)
2. NATO official strategic concepts
3. BRICS expansion reports (2023–2025)
4. Council on Foreign Relations – Global power shifts analysis
https://www.cfr.org
5. Chatham House – Europe defence and autonomy reports
https://www.chathamhouse.org

Friday, 17 April 2026

WILL RUSSIA DEAL WITH UKRAINE'S EUROPEAN SUPPLY CHAIN

17 April 2026

1. The Brutal Logic Of War

Wars do not usually end in tidy negotiations. They end in defeat. Clear, recognisable defeat. The belief that modern imperial  conflicts can be negotiated away is appealing, but history from Rome onwards tells us that the drive for expansion is absolutely ruthless.

American interventions illustrate the point. With the partial exceptions of post-war Japan and South Korea, most campaigns - particularly in West Asia - have struggled to achieve their stated political objectives. Tactical victories, yes, but these have rarely translated into durable political outcomes. America won every battle against Vietnam but lost the war.

So why do these "forever wars" continue?


Military defeat – the point at which a state recognises that it can no longer achieve its objectives buy military means and must concede defeat
Strategic victory – achieving long-term political goals rather than short-term battlefield success

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2. The War Incentive Structure

One explanation lies in incentives. Foreign policy is not driven by pure strategy, still less by any morality. In the case of America, being the hegemon men's answerable to no one and so international law counts for little. Foreign policy is shaped by the convergence of five interests.

 industrial and financial interests.


The Israeli lobby is clearly a powerful force acting on Donald Trump, and is undoubtedly the decider for American policy in West Asia, but it is far from the only pressure point. The decision space around him is crowded and conflicted. The military industrial complex MIC, financial markets esp. banks / bond markets, public opinion, and the long-standing globalist neoconservatives v. the nationalists especially Trump's MAGA base.

All exert their own gravitational pull on the POTUS.

This creates a classic situation of competing imperatives, where policy is less a coherent strategy and more the resultant vector of multiple pressures. In that sense, what we are observing may not be a clean neocon plan, but a negotiated outcome between power centres, explaining in part at least Trump's erratic and inconsistent behaviour.

The military-industrial complex carries on operating regardless of outcomes on the battlefield. In fact, prolonged conflict can be economically beneficial to those producing weapons, systems, and logistics. Duration, in this sense, can matter more than victory.

This is not necessarily conspiracy. It is structure. Large defence industries require sustained and predictably long periods of demand in order to justify the substantial upfront investments required, and war provides it.


Military-industrial complex – the network of defence contractors, governments, and institutions tied to military spending
Incentive structure - the system of motivations that shapes behaviour within institutions
World hegemon - the goal is to remain the global rule-giver 

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3. Europe’s Expanding Role In The Ukraine War

A less visible shift is Europe’s growing role in sustaining Ukraine. Financially, European states are underwriting the Ukrainian state, with estimates often cited in the range of €80–100 billion annually to keep the system functioning.

But the more interesting development is on the production side, where Europe is taking you over from America, mainly in terms of drone production.

Weapons are no longer simply delivered as finished systems. Component parts or sub assemblies are manufactured across Europe – including in the UK – and shipped into Ukraine for final assembly. Ukraine is evolving into a distributed assembly hub rather than just a recipient.


Underwriting – providing financial support to sustain operations
Distributed production – manufacturing spread across multiple locations rather than centralised


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4. Reusing the Airbus Model, For Warfare

The structure increasingly resembles modern auto and aerospace manufacturing. Airbus produces components for its civil and military aircraft across Europe, which are then assembled in final assembly lines in Toulouse and Hamburg.

A similar model is emerging in Ukraine. Multiple suppliers in multiple European and Turkish jurisdictions. Final assembly innumerous FALs close to the theatres of operations.

This creates resilience and flexibility and protects suppliers from attack. But it also creates traceability. Supply chains leave traceable patterns.

Russia has identified elements of this network, suggesting that parts manufacturers and logistics routes are being mapped. This means the war shifts from a battlefield contest to a supply chain contest.


Final assembly line - the FAL, the place where components are brought together to create the finished product
Supply chain - the network from production of sub-units, thriugh transport, to final assembly, and delivery of goods


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5. Drone Warfare And The Border Problem

A defining feature of the conflict is the rise of drones. Increasingly, they account for a large share of battlefield impact, with reports suggesting that perhaps over 90% of casualties are now caused by unmanned systems.

At the same time, the geography of attacks is becoming more complex.

There are now indications that Ukrainian drones are launched from within Ukraine, but then leave Ukrainian airspace and track along the borders of Belarus and the Baltic states on the European side, before turning towards targets deeper inside Russia, including and beyond Saint Petersburg.

This creates a strategic dilemma. Russia is aware of these routes. But what is the response? Intercepting drones over or near NATO territory risks escalation. Not intercepting them invites continued penetration. This is similar to Stalin's dilemma - he wanted to destroy the Bandarites, but feared a nuclear response from America.


Drone warfare – the use of unmanned aerial systems for intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance and attack
Strategic dilemma – a situation where all available responses carry significant risk


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6. Historical Shadows – The Banderite Question

History remains present in powerful ways.

In the aftermath of the Second World War, Soviet authorities faced nationalist movements in western Ukraine, often associated with the Banderites. Stalin might have chosen to deal with these groups more decisively in the immediate post-war period.

However, such actions carried risk. The emergence of the American nuclear arsenal imposed a new strategic constraint. Escalation, even at the regional level, now had potentially existential consequences.

After the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia entered a period of weakness. After the 1990s and early 2000s, some argue that Moscow could have pushed more firmly for neutrality among former Soviet states, rather than allowing America to advance NATO up to its doorstep. 


Banderites – Ukrainian nationalist groups associated with Stepan Bandera and anti-Soviet resistance movements
Nuclear deterrence – the use of nuclear weapons capability to prevent escalation by raising the cost of conflict


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7. From Battlefield To System War

The deeper shift is conceptual.

Modern conflict extends beyond the battlefield into infrastructure, logistics, finance, and the production economy. It becomes a system or "total war", the country runs on a war economy.

If one side targets military assets, the other may target the network that sustains them. Even if production is decentralised, it will still be targeted using drones and high-precision missiles.

The concept of escalation dominance is central here. Drawing on the work of Robert Pape, escalation is rarely one-sided. Each action invites a counter-action, doubling down or raising the stakes with diminishing chance of descending the escalation ladder. This is the trap described in his book.

This raises a difficult question. If infrastructure and bases can be struck by Iran in Israel and Gulf Arab States, could similar logic be applied to production nodes elsewhere, Russia hitting weapons facilities in Europe?

That would represent a major escalation. But it would follow the internal logic of system warfare and should be expected.


System war – conflict targeting the entire economy and network supporting military capability
Infrastructure targeting – attacks on facilities that enable military operations


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8. The Escalation Ladder

All of this points towards a recognisable pattern.

Each move invites a counter-move. Each adaptation triggers another response. Over time, the conflict expands in scope, geography, and intensity.

Strategists describe this as an escalation ladder - a sequence of steps, each more severe than the last.Here are Pape's five rungs for America's war against Russia in Ukraine:

1. Sanctions & isolation
2. Proxy arms supply
3. Deep strike authorization
4. NATO direct entanglement
5. Nuclear threshold

The danger is that once the conflict turns into a hot war, it is very difficult to avoid "the escalation trap".


Escalation ladder – a framework describing progressive stages of increasing conflict intensity
Counter-move – a response designed to offset an opponent’s action


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9. Final Reflection

History suggests that wars do not end because participants choose to stop. They escalate in entirely predictable ways, until one side is obliged to recognise a sound military defeat.

Until then, incentives persist, systems expand, and escalation continues.

The real question is not whether there is an escalation ladder - of course there is - but how to get off it before what some are calling nuclear Armageddon.

Tuesday, 14 April 2026

THE ESCALATION TRAP

The escalation trap and America's strategy for world hegemony 

OVERVIEW
  • American power is not built on territory, but on control of global flows – energy, finance, trade, and narrative.

  • Strategy follows a repeatable pattern: provoke, escalate, widen, sustain, and force a decisive outcome.

  • Each step appears rational in isolation, yet together they form an escalation trap that is hard to exit.

  • The current US–Iran conflict fits this model almost perfectly, moving steadily up the ladder.

  • The endgame is binary: either a negotiated containment, or a costly overreach that accelerates imperial decline.


1. The Pressure On Trump

The Israeli lobby is clearly a powerful force acting on Donald Trump, undoubtedly the decider for American policy in West Asia, but but it is far from the only pressure point. The decision space around him is crowded and conflicted. The military industrial complex, financial markets esp. banks / bond markets, public opinion, and the long-standing globalist neoconservative project for world hegemony and rule-giver together with its homologue the nationalists especially Trump's MAGA base ... all exert their own gravitational pull on the POTUS.

This creates a classic situation of competing imperatives, where policy is less a coherent strategy and more the resultant vector of multiple pressures. In that sense, what we are observing may not be a clean neocon plan, but a negotiated outcome between power centres, explaining in part at least Trump's erratic and inconsistent behaviour.

Military industrial complex - The network of defence contractors, armed forces, and political actors influencing military policy and spending.
Neoconservatism - A globalist political doctrine favouring interventionism and the projection of power to shape global order. Throughout history - and through the presidencies of Bush, Obama, Biden and now Trump - empires have used debt, expansionism and military as the basic means to maintain their hegemony.

2. The Iranian Visit And Strategic Signalling

It is difficult to understand why Iran chose to send a high-level delegation to Islamabad in the first place, given that the likelihood of meaningful progress was minimal. And why an ambitious man like Vance would agree to such a mission impossible especially accompanied by to Israeli agent-minders. Wars of this nature do not end in preliminary talks, not at such an early stage of escalation.

One explanation is reputational. Iran may have wanted to demonstrate goodwill to the Global South, positioning itself as reasonable and open to dialogue. Another, more structural explanation, is pressure from China, whose economic and strategic interests are deeply tied to Iran.

China’s Belt and Road infrastructure, alongside Russia’s north south corridor linking Russia to India via Iran, represent a physical manifestation of Eurasian integration of land powers. Yet this infrastructure is inherently vulnerable. It depends on stability in the countries whose borders the transport links cross; and perhaps more vitally, on the somewhat naive assumption that rival powers will not actively seek to disrupt it.

That assumption may now be under severe strain.

Global South - Developing or less industrialised countries, often positioned outside Western power structures.
Belt and Road Initiative - China’s global infrastructure strategy linking Asia, Europe, and Africa through trade routes.
West Asia - the more recent name for what was originally the Near East, then the Middle East, showing how the political locus has been moving from The West to Asia.

3. Maritime Power Versus Land Power

The United States, by contrast, operates from a fundamentally different strategic model. It is a maritime power. Its dominance comes from controlling sea lanes, ports, naval logistics, and global trade routes.

This sets up a structural conflict. Eurasian land connectivity challenges maritime dominance. If energy, goods, and capital can flow across land outside US-controlled routes, then American leverage is diminished.

From this perspective, actions against Iran begin to look less like an isolated particular conflict, ordained by Israeli Zionists, and more like part of a broader attempt to disrupt land-based integration. Limiting China’s access to secure, overland energy and distribution routes would force it back into maritime channels where US influence remains decisive.

This is not necessarily about defeating China directly. It may instead be about constraining its options.

Not overlooking the heartland thesis which makes Russia the principal adversary rather than China.

Maritime power - Control of the seas and shipping routes as a basis of geopolitical influence.
Land power - Control of territory and overland trade routes, often associated with continental empires.
Mackinder heartland thesis - posits that the central area of Eurasia, known as the Heartland, is crucial for global power:
"Who rules East Europe commands the Heartland;
who rules the Heartland commands the World-Island;
who rules the World-Island commands the world." Mackinder's Pivot of History

4. Energy As The Strategic Lever

Energy is the foundation of life, of the means of production and of the entire economic and financial system. China’s economic model depends on reliable energy imports to sustain industrial production and technological advancement.

If those flows can be disrupted, redirected, or taxed (something like International excise duties and toll booths in place of sanctions), then the balance of power shifts. The idea that the United States could seek to control global energy flows, either directly or indirectly, is not far as fetched as it may seem - it makes perfect strategic sense and it aligns with historical patterns of empire.

The suggestion that Washington might aim to make countries dependent on American energy, or at least on routes it controls, is coherent with a strategy for global dominance. It would also explain the targeting of infrastructure, including rail links tied to Russian and Iranian networks, pipelines and BnR initiatives.

Energy security - Reliable access to energy resources at stable prices.
Strategic leverage - The ability to influence others’ behaviour by controlling critical resources or systems.
Strategy - organising resources in service of goals. Cause-and-effect chain thinking. Look ahead next-order consequences like moves on a chessboard. Contrast this with tactics which are reactive, situational, one move at a time.

5. Russia’s Underestimated Role

Russia is often dismissed because its economy is smaller than that of the United States. This can be misleading. In geopolitical terms, resource endowment and geography can outweigh nominal GDP.

Russia’s oil and gas reserves, combined with its position linking the Central Asia heartland  to Europe, give it long-term strategic relevance. The Nord Stream pipeline was an expression of America's fear of a Greater Europe. And how would Europe deal with a NATO without America? How would it manage its neighbour to the east? How would it control rivalries within its own borders? How would it deal with a brooding and vengeful America? At some point, Europe may be forced by necessity to re-engage with these economic, political and security realities. 

This is precisely why Iran and Russia matter. They are not just regional actors. They are critical nodes in an emerging alternative system of energy and trade.

Geopolitics - The influence of geography and resources on political power.
Resource endowment - The natural resources available within a country or region.

6. Escalation And The Logic Of Ground Control

Military planners in the Pentagon well understand that air power alone cannot secure lasting control. It can degrade, destroy, and destabilise, but it cannot occupy or govern.

If the objective is to control Iran’s coastline, ports, and energy infrastructure, then escalation to ground operations becomes a logical next step. This would mark a significant shift from coercion to direct control.

Such a move would carry enormous risks, but it would also align with the strategic objective of controlling energy flows at source. Iran has said if an evasion takes place it will completely destroy the six GCC States that live on the Arab west coast of the Gulf, backing the desert.

Air power - Military use of aircraft to attack or control territory.
Ground operations - Deployment of troops to occupy and control land.

7. Siege Warfare And Historical Parallels

Trump’s rhetoric about “erasing a civilisation” should not be dismissed as hyperbole and colourful exaggeration. Historically, empires have pursued strategies that amount to siege warfare at a civilisational scale.

Blockading coasts, controlling ports, and restricting access to food and energy can weaken a society over time. The British Empire’s actions against China in the 19th century, which included turning the Chinese into a nation of drug addicts, provide a stark example of how economic coercion can be used to an entire nation.

Strategies like these may seem extreme, but they are consistent with historical patterns of imperial behaviour, particularly in periods of relative decline when stakes are seen as existential.

Siege warfare - A strategy of isolating and starving out an opponent rather than direct confrontation.
Imperial decline - The weakening phase of an empire, often marked by overreach and conflict abroad, unfulfillable debt obligations, and massive internal strain at home.

8. The Tollbooth Strategy And Chokepoints

One of the more revealing ideas is Trump’s suggestion of sharing control of the Strait of Hormuz as a “toll booth”. He said this. This is a remarkably clear articulation of how modern power can operate.

Control of chokepoints allows for the taxation and regulation of global flows. Similar logic applies to the Strait of Malacca, a critical artery for energy shipments to East Asia.

If such tollbooths were effectively implemented, they could generate revenue streams to offset declining tariff powers, especially in light of domestic legal constraints (the High Court has ruled Trump's tariffs unconstitutional). More importantly, they would provide direct leverage over competitors, particularly China, adding another lever to the control of maritime highways.

Chokepoint - A narrow route through which large volumes of trade or traffic must pass.
Tollbooth strategy - Control of key routes to extract economic or strategic advantage from those who use them.

9. Conclusion - Competing Systems, One Battlefield

What emerges is not a simple bilateral conflict, but a systemic struggle between two models of global order. One is maritime, financial, and control-based. The other is continental, infrastructural, and integration-based.

Iran sits at the intersection of these systems. That is why it matters so much.

The talks in Beijing next month may be less about peace in the conventional sense, and more about negotiating the terms of coexistence between these competing architectures of power.

The question is whether such coexistence is still possible, or whether the logic of escalation has already taken over.

The Escalation Trap -

Step One – Limited Military Action: Initial targeted strikes to signal strength without full war
Step Two – Retaliation: The opponent responds to restore credibility and deterrence
Step Three – Expansion: Targets and methods widen across geography and domains
Step Four – Attrition: Sustained campaign to weaken the opponent over time
Step Five – Strategic Climax: Full-scale war or forced negotiation becomes unavoidable

References

The Tragedy of Great Power Politics
The New Silk Roads

Monday, 6 April 2026

QUESTIONING THE SANITY OF THE AMERICAN LEADERSHIP

6 April 2026

OVERVIEW

It is a worry when when personality, power, and belief collide at the very top of the global system. 

This piece traces a chain from leadership character, through inner circles and elite influence, into the realm of ideology and end-times thinking, asking whether we are witnessing action in pursuit of clearly defined and rational goals, in the frame of a carefully planned and calculated strategy, or rather is this a leadership suffering from collective delusion, creating the possibility of a far more dangerous outcome to the present madness.


1. Questioning The Sanity Of The American Leadership 

There is a deeper question that sits behind current events: the psychological character of the leadership at the very top of the present system.

It is not simply a matter of unpredictability, though that in itself signals instability. What we appear to be dealing with is a personality type marked by a constant need for admiration, a weak capacity for empathy, and a strong sense of entitlement. These traits can be grouped under the heading psychologists call narcissism - a pattern of behaviour centred on self-importance and validation-seeking.

Alongside this can in some circumstances and particularly in times of stress, come suspicion, paranoia, grievance, and at times a harsh, punitive or even sadistic attitude towards others. As evident from the truth social posts where Trump uses extreme language and in a bombing campaign which resembles Vietnam and covers civilian areas. 

In addition, this is someone who openly states that he has cast aside international norms in favour of how he feels and his own sense of morality - his decision on February 28 2026 to go to war with Iran has most likely destroyed not only his presidency as well as global trust in America. This is extraordinary stuff and we wonder where the Constitution and its checks and balances have gone and whether a highly intelligent, politically, madman isn't nominating himself Caesar (the passage from Republic to Empire) while at the same time in his desperation become increasingly dangerous to the world. 

When such a character sits at the apex of global power, with access to immense military capability, including the red button, the stakes are obvious.

  • Narcissism – a personality pattern characterised by grandiosity, need for admiration, and low empathy

2. The Inner Circle – Competence Or Conformity

Leadership does not operate in isolation. It is of course shaped, reinforced, or moderated by those closest to it.

The concern here is not simply loyalty. All leaders attract loyal followers, by the definition of leader. 

The question is whether that loyalty crowds out competence and independent judgement. When a team becomes overly aligned to one personality, it risks becoming sycophantic – echoing rather than challenging. 

More than this, who is in Trump's cabinet and who are his advisors? Trump eschews trained, professional and expert advice from his administration, officers of the state selected on qualifications, experience and intelligence  - he does not trust the Deep State and instead chooses a cabinet of advisors from his family members and friends, who become sycophants or are discarded, and those who remain at the top of the pile I have questionable loyalties to America. 

Plus look at and listen to the military and religious tattoos that cover the body of America's Secretary of Defense (or self-proclaimed Secretary of War), as well as his statements on social media and his promise to stop drinking until this war is over. 

So there are questions of experience and emotional steadiness here. High-pressure geopolitical environments require depth, discipline, reflection and restraint. Without these, decision-making can pass over structured analysis and planning and turn instead towards instinct, emotion and reaction.

  • Sycophancy – excessive flattery or agreement with authority, often at the expense of truth

3. Power Structures – The Influence Of Elite Networks

Beyond formal government sits another layer: informal networks and influential lobbies.

Figures such as Jeffrey Epstein have become shorthand for a wider class of elites operating across finance, politics, military, industry and media. This "power elite" does not have to be a single coordinated group, but a loosely connected network of influence that aligns on shared self-interest. So we have what is referred to as the Epstein class feeding into and shaping narratives and priorities.

When such networks are aligned with conflict or escalation, it raises questions about underlying motivations and shared worldviews. Whether justified or not, the perception itself contributes to a growing distrust of elite structures and, while people are failing to distinguish between Jew Zionist and Israeli, that distrust includes the Jewish community everywhere.

  • Elite networks – informal groups of powerful individuals influencing decisions beyond formal institutions

4. Zionism And The Armageddon Narrative

At the ideological level, attention turns to belief systems, particularly the current iteration of religious Zionism.

Zionism itself is a broad and complex movement. However, in these religious interpretations, it becomes intertwined with end-times thinking. This includes the concept of Armageddon, drawn from Book of Revelation.

Armageddon, derived from Har Megiddo (Mount Megiddo, a place in Israel), is an ancient battlefield where the final confrontation between good and evil will be fought. In these interpretations, conflict is not just political, but part of a divine sequence leading to transformation.

The culmination is the emergence of a “new heaven and new earth” - a complete reordering of reality with the establishment of the Kingdom of God on Earth.

  • Eschatology – the study of end-times and final events in religious belief

5. From Theology To Geopolitics

The trouble arises when such end-times narratives seep into real-world power thinking, which - however how this is to believe - is happening. 

When leaders or influential groups are guided, even partially, by apocalyptic thinking and frameworks, then conflict can take on an altogether different meaning. It is no longer something to be avoided or managed, but something that fulfils an inevitable divine destiny.

From a strategic perspective, such narratives can be used, consciously or unconsciously, to justify and sustain global dominance, an ideological scaffolding for hegemony. Narrative is after all what holds together a social and political order. 

This is where the overlap between belief, power, and policy is at its most worrisome.

  • Hegemony – dominance of one state or group over others, can lead to Empire 

6. Madness Or Misinterpretation

At this point, two interpretations emerge:

  • One sees a pattern of irrationality, even madness
  • The other sees a mix of belief, strategy, and power politics

Both elements can be present at the same time, such are we humans and our systems.

But the language, tone, and apparent motivations of this leadership are deeply concerning. Not just elites outside Washington, but increasingly ordinary people outside the systems of governance, are struggling to make sense of events.


7. The Final Check and Balance – Ordinary People

If there is a stabilising force, history suggest s it may not lie within the existing Order of rules, institutions and elite networks.

In periods of excess, overreach, or ideological distortion, the people lose faith and awake and elite behaviour and actions provoke a response from civil society. People who are not invested in power structures, who have little to gain from conflict, often see things more plainly.

So the hope is that this broader base acts as a corrective. Not through grand ideology, but through something far less complex: a return to grounded judgement, a kingdom not of God or prophecy or empire, but of common sense.

  • Common sense – practical, shared reasoning grounded in everyday reality

References

  • American Psychiatric Association – personality frameworks
  • Book of Revelation
  • Armstrong, K. – history of religious movements and interpretations
  • Nye, J. – power and influence in global politics
  • Dalio, R. – cycles of power and internal order

Friday, 20 March 2026

HOW DOES AMERICA CONTROL ITS VASSALS

20 March 2026

How to recruit, retain and control your vassals

The strategy for recruiting, holding, and controlling proxy states, or "vassals," involves several key almost Mafia-type mechanisms:

1. Political Capture: This is achieved through significant financial influence, such as lobbying money and campaign donations, as well as threats to the elected status or health of the candidate, and "soft power" generally, which ensures that political systems and leaders align with US interests. The US also influences government formation and captures intelligence services within these states.

2. Security Integration and Training: The US builds up and partially runs the internal security apparatus of these states, trains and arms specific military or paramilitary groups, provides ISR, to exert control and enforce desired policies and actions.

3. Information Control: Funding NGOs and controlling a significant portion of the media in these proxy states helps shape public opinion and maintain influence, preventing dissent or independent decision-making.

4. Strategic Exploitation: Proxies are used as expendable fronts to absorb conflict, blame, and retaliatory damage, allowing the US to advance its geopolitical objectives while maintaining plausible deniability. Their resources are also exploited to serve US interests.



Wednesday, 18 March 2026

IF THIS GOES NUCLEAR

18 March 2026

Whether you're a Boy Scout or given to panic attacks, here in no particular priority order are some things worth thinking about :

1. Immediate Blast And Thermal Effects

  • Radius of destruction
  • Firestorms and burns
  • Urban vs rural exposure

2. Radiation Exposure

  • Initial ionising radiation
  • Fallout patterns and wind direction
  • Short vs long-term health effects

3. Fallout And Shelter Strategy

  • Need for shielding (concrete, underground)
  • Duration of sheltering (hours vs weeks)
  • Access to food, water, sanitation

4. Geographic Risk Assessment

  • Distance from likely targets
  • Proximity to military bases, ports, cities
  • Prevailing winds and weather systems

5. Supply Chain Disruption

  • Fuel shortages
  • Food availability
  • Medical supplies and pharmacies

6. Financial System Impact

  • Banking access and liquidity
  • Currency stability
  • Gold, cash, and alternative stores of value

7. Energy Shock

  • Oil and gas supply collapse
  • Electricity outages
  • Transport paralysis

8. Government Response And Controls

  • Martial law
  • Movement restrictions
  • Rationing systems

9. Communication Breakdown

  • Internet outages
  • Mobile network disruption
  • Access to reliable information

10. Evacuation vs Shelter-In-Place

  • Timing decisions
  • Transport availability
  • Border closures

11. Health System Collapse

  • Hospital overload
  • Lack of emergency services
  • Disease outbreaks

12. Social Stability And Security

  • Panic and crowd behaviour
  • Crime and looting
  • Community cooperation vs breakdown

13. Geopolitical Escalation

  • Risk of wider war (global powers)
  • NATO / US / Russia / China involvement
  • Secondary strikes

14. Long-Term Environmental Impact

  • Contaminated land and water
  • Agricultural collapse
  • Nuclear winter risk

15. Personal Preparedness

  • Emergency supplies
  • Documentation and identification
  • Family communication plan

16. Psychological And Moral Factors

  • Stress and decision-making under uncertainty
  • Maintaining discipline and routine
  • Ethical choices in crisis

17. Exit Routes And Safe Havens

  • Viable destinations
  • Visa and entry restrictions
  • Transport corridors

18. Information And Misinformation

  • Propaganda and panic narratives
  • Verifying sources
  • Decision-making under uncertainty

19. Timing And Early Warning Signals

  • Escalation indicators
  • Military movements
  • Diplomatic breakdowns

20. Recovery And Reconstruction Horizon

  • Duration of disruption
  • Economic rebuilding
  • Return to normality timelines

Sunday, 15 March 2026

MORAL DECADENCE PRECEDES CIVILISATIONAL COLLAPSE

15 March 2026

Trying to understand Trump - an aberration or normal End of Empire decadence and decline? 

End of Empire thesis 

Rise of empire → expansion and wealth → decadence and inequality → crisis → collapse → regime change

Economic expansion
→ Imperial overstretch
→ Economic crisis
→ Political crisis
→ Social fragmentation
→ Moral decadence
→ Regime change.

Go to offset 9.32. 

This clip shows people who are happy and relaxed, knowing that they are doing what they believe is right and, in the local spirit of martyrdom, ready to meet their maker if it saves their country.

Compare that with the people in this video, who are partying somewhere in a basement:


For anyone looking for historical parallels of moral decadence preceding civilisational collapse, is this not reminiscent of the twin cities of Sodom and Gomorrah?

Unconventional sexual behaviour and violence, mobs disrupting public life, abuse of immigrants, disregard for justice, and a general atmosphere of indulgence and cruelty.

This is another end-times type of story that could become our fate. In the biblical story the tale ends with divine destruction of hell fire and brimstone.

What about the moral decline of Rome? Banquets, strange sexual practices, cruel gladiatorial spectacles in the circus, loss of patriotism, civic duty and military discipline, and extreme inequality between the aristocracy and the people.

Is this what awaits us in the fall of the American empire? Are we almost there already?

It was similar under Louis XVI and Marie Antoinette. Gambling, fashion and lavish banquets, with the aristocracy living completely detached from what was happening in the lives of ordinary people.

It was also the same kind of moral and administrative corruption that set in among the Ottomans well before the First World War: the sale of public offices, tax farming, etc etc.

The end-of-empire idea is that decadence, as one might call it, is a symptom of decline, not a cause of it. It is the familiar hundred-year rise-and-fall story of societies (rebuilding, awakening, unraveling and Neil Howe's crisis of the fourth turning). Towards the end, continuous expansion becomes too costly to sustain. Economic crisis leads to political crisis. Inequality and immigration lead to fragmentation and fighting. Amid the chaos and disorder, moral and behavioural norms break down, simply because the system has already become unstable. The final step is regime change and the emergence of a new Order.

Saturday, 14 March 2026

WAR, JUSTICE AND MIGRATION - THREE WAYS OF SEEING A FOREVER WAR

14 March 2026

WAR, JUSTICE AND MIGRATION 

Three ways of seeing the same conflict. We're talking about the war against Iran but we could be talking about any of the wars that America has been involved in in the last 70 years. Let's take these perspectives one by one. 

1. WAR refers to a historical and geopolitical perspective.
This view asks how wars begin, why they repeat, and what large forces such as empire, energy, resources, grand even global strategy, power and geography are driving them. It looks at long repeat-with-variations historical patterns and asks how wars might eventually end.

2. JUSTICE refers to the legal and moral viewpoint.
This perspective focuses on rules and responsibility. It asks who committed crimes, who violated the laws - of war and international and human rights, and who should be held accountable. It relies on institutions such as the United Nations and treaties like the Geneva Conventions.

3. MIGRATION refers to the domestic political standpoint.
This perspective looks at the consequences of wars rather than the particular war itself. Conflicts destroy societies and push people to move elsewhere. Immigration into Europe as an example and the UK more specifically, then becomes a major political issue of the home front. Writers such as Douglas Murray or Eric Zemmour discuss this angle under the heading of the Great Replacement. Some historians looking for repeat patterns note that large migration waves often appear in the later phases of empires.

WAR – why the conflict exists
JUSTICE – who is responsible for crimes
MIGRATION – how the conflict affects societies far away. 

THREE WAYS PEOPLE LOOK AT THE SAME WAR

When people talk about the wars in West Asia, they often think they are arguing about the same thing. In reality they are usually looking at the same events from three very different angles. Once you notice these angles it becomes much easier to understand why people disagree.

1. The first angle is the history, macro-economics and geopolitics view. People seeing a conflict this way are stepping back and looking at "the big picture". They ask about the shared life cycle of Empires, how this conflict started, how this empire is shaping the world or particular regions, and why similar struggles keep repeating. Historians such as Arnold J. Toynbee often looked at history in this broader way. The aim is not only to come to conclusions about events, but to understand the deeper forces behind them, and perhaps to find workable political arrangements around security issues that could create a lasting peace.

2. The second angle is the legal and moral view. People using this lens ask straightforward questions: who committed crimes, who broke the rules of war / international law / human rights, and who should be punished. They look at reports from organisations such as the United Nations and the Geneva Conventions. Their main concern is justice in the legal sense - crime & punishment of individuals. Civilians should not be killed, prisoners should not be abused, and those who break these rules should be held responsible. 

3. The third angle is the immigration and domestic politics view. Many people in Europe and North America worry less about the details of the war and more about its consequences at home. Wars in far away places destroy economies and societies, and when that happens many people leave their countries to search for safety and work elsewhere, often in the Metropole. Large migrations then shape politics inside countries such as Britain and France. 

Writers like Douglas Murray and broadcasters like Eric Zemmour have argued that mass immigration raises serious questions about national identity, borders and social stability in native Western societies, even that certain immigrant groups desire to take over and change the system itself. From a different angle, some historians observe that large migration flows often appear during the later stages of empires, when economic pressures such as the need for additional and low-cost labour, begin to destabilise the entire system.

4. These three perspectives look at the same events but ask different questions. One asks why the conflict exists and how it might end. Another asks who committed crimes. The third asks how distant wars affect everyday life inside Western countries. Recognising these different viewpoints helps explain why people sometimes talk past each other even though they are discussing the same events.

Glossary
Geopolitics – the study of how geography, resources and power influence international politics.


REFERENCES

1. WAR – THE HISTORICAL, MACRO AND GEOPOLITICAL PERSPECTIVE

This approach asks why wars start, why they repeat, and what large forces such as empire, geography, energy, resources and human power are driving them.

Best book

The Revenge of Geography

• Clear explanation of how geography shapes power and conflict.
• Explains why certain regions repeatedly become battlefields.
• Accessible but serious.
• Very useful for understanding West Asia and great power rivalry.

Reference
Kaplan, Robert D. (2012) The Revenge of Geography.

Best YouTube video

John Mearsheimer
“The Causes and Consequences of the Ukraine War”

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JrMiSQAGOS4

• Famous lecture explaining how great power politics works.
• Shows how geopolitical analysis differs from moral or legal arguments.
• Very clear explanation of how states behave in an anarchic international system.

Another best video 

The clearest video explaining the macroeconomic side of empire, debt and war comes from Ray Dalio.

How The Economic Machine Works & The Changing World Order

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xguam0TKMw8

This presentation summarises the argument later developed in Dalio’s book Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order.

The video is widely viewed on Youtube because it explains complex historical patterns in straightforward and visual terms.

Dalio’s framework links economics, empire and war through a repeating historical cycle.

He argues that great powers tend to follow a pattern:

First, a nation becomes rich and productive.

Second, its currency becomes dominant in global trade.

Third, financial markets expand and debt grows.

Fourth, internal inequality and political conflict increase.

Fifth, geopolitical rivalry intensifies and wars become more likely.

Financial overstretchAt that stage the empire often becomes financially overstretched. Military commitments increase while borrowing, and fiscal and trade debt levels, rise, weakening the system from within.

────────────────────────

WHY DEBT AND WAR ARE CONNECTED

Dalio’s key insight is that wars are often financed by debt and money creation.

When a country fights large wars it must pay for:

• military production

• soldiers and logistics

• reconstruction

• economic disruption

If tax revenues cannot cover these costs governments borrow or print money. Over time, the cost benefit analysis works against them and inflation can weaken the currency and the financial system supporting the empire.

────────────────────────

HOW THIS FITS THE “WAR – JUSTICE – MIGRATION” FRAMEWORK

Dalio’s work sits mainly inside the WAR viewpoint, the economic, historical and geopolitical perspective.

His analysis focuses on:

• macroeconomic power

• debt cycles

• great power competition

• imperial rise and decline

In that sense he is asking the question:

Why do empires fight wars and eventually lose their dominance?

Glossary
Geopolitics – the study of how geography, power and resources shape international relations.

────────────────────────

2. JUSTICE – THE LEGAL AND MORAL PERSPECTIVE

This regard focuses on international law, human rights and moral responsibility in war.

Best book

Just and Unjust Wars

• One of the most influential modern books on the ethics of war.
• Explains when war may be justified and what conduct in war is allowed.
• Widely used in universities, military academies and diplomatic circles.

Reference
Walzer, Michael (1977) Just and Unjust Wars.

Best YouTube video

Philippe Sands
“International Law and War Crimes”

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H9J6C0hKp9k

• Clear explanation of war crimes, accountability and international courts.
• Helps explain how institutions such as the International Criminal Court work.

Glossary
Just War Theory – a tradition of ethical reasoning about when war is justified and how it should be conducted.

────────────────────────

3. MIGRATION – THE DOMESTIC POLITICAL PERSPECTIVE

This angle focuses on how wars abroad produce population movements and how migration then affects metropolitan politics ie inside Western countries themselves.

Best book

The Strange Death of Europe

• One of the most widely discussed books on immigration and cultural change in Europe.
• Argues that large migration flows raise questions about identity, borders and political stability - all responsibilities the government loses control of as relations internationalise.
• Frequently referenced in debates about migration in Britain and Europe.

Reference
Murray, Douglas (2017) The Strange Death of Europe.

You might also see similar themes in the work of Éric Zemmour.

Best YouTube video

Douglas Murray
“The Future of Europe and Immigration”

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0l9pKk1Fh8Q

• Clear explanation of how migration debates are framed in Europe.
• Explores cultural, demographic and political arguments around immigration.

Glossary
Migration – the movement of people from one country or region to another, often driven by war, economic hardship or political instability.

────────────────────────

WHY COMBINING THESE THREE VIEWPOINTS COULD BE INTERESTING

Taken together, these three perspectives show how debates between deaf people you don't understand each other are futile and ennervating, with "contestants" talking past each other, giving the debates a strong emotional colouring, at the expense of reason and relevance.

WAR explains why conflicts start.
JUSTICE asks who is responsible for crimes.
MIGRATION looks at how the consequences hit the lives of ordinary people in Western societies.

Each perspective answers a different question, which is why people can argue intensely but futily, while actually discussing three different aspects of the same reality.

Tuesday, 10 March 2026

FINANCIAL AND GEOPOLITICAL ORIGINS OF MODERN WEST ASIA

10 March 2026


This post argues that the modern crises of West Asia were not born from timeless sectarian hatreds, but from a specific imperial and financial settlement imposed during and after the First World War. Britain and France carved up the collapsing Ottoman world through overlapping promises to Arabs, Zionists and each other, while oil concessions, banking interests and strategic trade routes shaped the borders that followed. The result was a regional order built less on the wishes of its peoples than on the needs of empire, finance and petroleum – a system later reinforced in Iran through foreign interference, the 1953 coup, the 1979 revolution and the US-Israel Iran wars that continue to define and set fire to the region today. 

1. THE FINANCIAL AND IMPERIAL ORIGINS

A coherent historical analysis tracing how decisions made by European imperial powers during World War I - shaped by overlapping diplomatic commitments and the strategic imperatives of oil and finance - constructed the foundations of the modern Middle East.

The narrative connects the McMahon Hussein Correspondence, the Sykes Picot Agreement, and the Balfour Declaration with a parallel architecture of oil concessions and transnational capital, illuminating how contradictory promises, secret treaties, and corporate cartels configured borders, states, and conflicts that still reverberate today.



2. THE PRE WAR CHESSBOARD - DECLINING OTTOMANS AND RISING IMPERIAL AMBITIONS

For six centuries, the Ottoman Empire governed the lands that would become Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, and Palestine, evolving from a 17th century global power into a 19th century polity weakened by administrative corruption, military defeats (first to Russia, then to rising European powers), and economic stagnation rooted in a failure to industrialize.

 The Ottoman Empire - sultans, dynasties and legacies 

European colonial pressure intensified.

• France took Algeria in 1830 and Tunisia in 1881 and eyed Syria.
• Britain controlled Egypt and administered the Suez Canal while building profitable networks across the Persian Gulf.
• Russia pushed toward Constantinople and the Black Sea Straits.
• Italy moved into Libya.
• Germany advanced economic reach via the Berlin – Baghdad railway.

Oil - long known regionally as bitumen and pitch - gained strategic urgency in the early 20th century.

In 1901, William Knox Darcy secured from the Shah of Persia a 60 year exclusive prospecting concession for £20,000 cash, equal company shares, and 16% of future profits.

After years of barren drilling, a 50 foot gusher erupted at Majid Suleiman at 4 a.m. on May 26, 1908, birthing the Anglo Persian Oil Company (APOC).

Birth of the Anglo Persian Oil Company (APOC) at Majid Suleiman, 1908

In 1911, Winston Churchill, First Lord of the Admiralty, concluded Britain’s naval supremacy could not rest on coal alone.

The Royal Navy ran entirely on coal, but oil powered ships promised:

• greater speed
• greater manoeuvrability
• greater range

Britain possessed almost no domestic oil and relied on imports from dominant players: American Standard Oil and Royal Dutch Shell.

In 1913, Churchill told Parliament Britain must control oil at its source.

Two months before World War I, the British government purchased a 51% controlling stake in APOC, a decision that received royal assent less than a week before war began and declared a strategic intent that would steer British foreign policy for decades.

Mesopotamian oil - especially in Mosul, Baghdad, and Basra - was already attracting investors and states.

Calouste Gulbenkian, a shrewd Armenian broker, had described immense deposits beneath Ottoman soil as early as 1892 and spent his career securing personal percentages of complex deals.

By 1912, the Turkish Petroleum Company (TPC) formed.

• Anglo Persian held 47.5%
• Royal Dutch Shell 22.5%
• Deutsche Bank 25%
• Gulbenkian personally 5%

On June 28, 1914, the Ottoman Grand Vizier promised a concession for oil in Baghdad and Mosul to TPC.

Four days later, Archduke Franz Ferdinand was assassinated, war ensued, and the Ottoman Empire joined Germany – resetting the entire landscape.


3. A WEB OF DECEIT - BRITAIN’S THREE CONTRADICTORY PROMISES

Before victory or even consultation with local populations, Britain and France were already partitioning the Middle East.

The under told dimension is financial.

The diplomatic promises mapped onto strategic calculations about oil, capital, and wartime necessity.

In 1916 Britain sought allies with religious authority, local knowledge, and mobilisation capacity against the Ottomans.

It then issued multiple contradictory promises over the same territories.

First – the Arabs.

Beginning in July 1915, Sir Henry McMahon, Britain’s High Commissioner in Egypt, entered secret correspondence with Hussein bin Ali, Sharif of Mecca – the most respected Islamic authority in Arabia.

Britain needed the Arab Revolt to counter the Ottoman Sultan’s jihad.

Across ten letters (July 1915 – March 1916), McMahon effectively promised Arab independence over a vast territory encompassing most of the Arabian Peninsula, Syria, Palestine, and Mesopotamia.

Hussein read the exchange as a genuine commitment and launched the Arab Revolt in June 1916.

His son Faisal led forces alongside T.E. Lawrence.

They captured Aqaba, sabotaged railways, ambushed convoys, and eventually entered Damascus near the end of the war believing they were stepping into the promised independent Arab state.

Thousands died believing in those letters.

Second – Sykes Picot.

Negotiations began in November 1915 between Sir Mark Sykes and François Georges Picot.

On May 16, 1916, while Arab fighters were already in the field, the secret Sykes Picot Agreement was ratified.

It allocated Syria and Lebanon to France, Iraq and Palestine to Britain, and left other territories as nominally independent but effectively controlled zones.

Sykes famously described drawing a line from the “E” in Acre to the last “K” in Kirkuk.

That line sliced through communities, trade routes, tribal lands, and family networks.

Third – Balfour.

On November 2, 1917, Foreign Secretary Arthur James Balfour wrote a 67 word letter to Lord Lionel Walter Rothschild.

The letter declared that Britain favoured the establishment in Palestine of a national home for the Jewish people.

Britain had now made three promises to three constituencies about overlapping lands – simultaneously.

 Britain's three parallel promises 


4. THE FINANCIAL ARCHITECTURE - ROTHSCHILDS, ZIONISM AND GEOPOLITICS

The Balfour letter’s addressee – Lord Lionel Walter Rothschild – reflects the Rothschild family’s long standing relationship with Palestine.

The Rothschild banking dynasty had dominated European private finance for more than a century.

Nathan Rothschild built the British branch’s influence.

Family networks financed governments, infrastructure, and extractive industries including Royal Dutch Shell and Rio Tinto.

Baron Edmund James de Rothschild, of the French branch, moved beyond banking.

Following pogroms in Russia during the 1880s and the growth of Zionist thought, he began financing Jewish settlements in Ottoman Palestine.

Beginning in 1882 he supported settlements such as:

• Rishon Lezion
• Petah Tikva
• Zikron Yaakov
• Rosh Pina
• Metula

He financed:

• houses
• roads
• wineries
• irrigation systems
• agricultural training

Over roughly fifty years he spent an estimated six million dollars of personal wealth building agricultural and industrial infrastructure.

By 1918 Rothschild linked holdings covered roughly one twentieth of Palestine’s fertile land.

In 1924 these investments were organised into the Palestine Jewish Colonization Association (PICA).

PICA acquired over 125,000 acres and helped establish more than forty settlements while developing electric power, potash extraction, cement production and the basis of an independent economy.

Place names such as Rothschild Boulevard in Tel Aviv and towns like Zichron Yaakov, Binyamina and Pardes Hanna still reflect this history.

The British government also believed support for Zionism could mobilise Jewish financial networks and political support – particularly in the United States – during the difficult later years of the war.

Thus diplomacy, finance and military strategy were closely intertwined.

 The Balfour declaration, 1917 


5. THE POST WAR SETTLEMENT - BORDERS AND OIL

After the Ottoman collapse, the Allied powers formalised their plans.

In 1918 British forces entered Mosul - three days after the armistice with Germany - securing the most promising oil territory.

This move ignored the earlier Sykes Picot arrangement.

 The Sykes-Picot Agreement, 1916 

At the San Remo Conference in April 1920 the powers formalised mandates and oil interests.

France ceded Mosul to Britain’s Iraqi mandate in exchange for a 25% share in the oil company that would exploit the region.

Territory and oil concessions were negotiated simultaneously.

American companies protested exclusion.

After prolonged pressure they were admitted into the renamed Iraq Petroleum Company.

Ownership became:

• Anglo Persian – 23.75%
• Royal Dutch Shell – 23.75%
• Compagnie Française des Pétroles – 23.75%
• American consortium – 23.75%
• Gulbenkian – 5%

The Red Line Agreement prevented partners from developing oil independently within the former Ottoman lands.

 The Redline agreement, 1928 

The boundary of the agreement was literally drawn with a red crayon around the Ottoman Empire.

Production levels could even be restricted to maintain global oil prices.

Ordinary populations were unaware their natural resources were being managed through a hidden cartel.


6. PERSIA TO IRAN – FROM CONSTITUTIONAL REVOLUTION TO THE ISLAMIC REPUBLIC (1906–2026)

While the modern Middle East was being carved up between Britain and France after the First World War, Persia – later Iran – followed a different but equally decisive trajectory.

Instead of becoming a formal mandate, Iran became the battleground between national sovereignty, foreign oil interests, and great power geopolitics.

The story runs through four turning points: 1906, 1953, 1979, and the present confrontation of the 2020s.


6.1 THE CONSTITUTIONAL REVOLUTION – PERSIA’S FIRST MODERN REVOLUTION (1906)

Iran entered the twentieth century already struggling with foreign influence.

The ruling Qajar dynasty had granted sweeping concessions to foreign companies and governments, particularly Britain and Russia.

Economic hardship, corruption, and resentment against foreign domination produced a remarkable political movement.

In 1906, merchants, clerics, and intellectuals forced the Shah to accept a constitution and a national parliament (Majlis).

The goal was to limit royal authority and defend national sovereignty.

It was one of the first constitutional revolutions in the Middle East.

Yet the new system faced immediate pressure from outside powers.

In 1907, Britain and Russia signed a convention dividing Persia into northern and southern spheres of influence, effectively undermining the new constitutional government.

Iran had achieved political awakening – but not independence.

  • Constitutional Revolutiona political movement seeking to limit royal power by establishing a constitution and parliament.

6.2 OIL AND NATIONALISM – MOSSADEGH AND THE 1953 COUP

Oil transformed Iran’s political destiny.

Since the 1908 discovery of petroleum, Britain had dominated Iranian oil through the Anglo Iranian Oil Company (later BP).

Many Iranians believed their country was receiving only a small share of its own wealth.

In 1951, nationalist leader Mohammad Mosaddegh became prime minister.

His government nationalised the oil industry in order to reclaim Iranian sovereignty.

Britain responded with an international oil embargo.

In 1953, Britain and the United States organised a covert operation – Operation Ajax – to overthrow Mosaddegh.

The coup removed Iran’s elected government and restored the Shah, Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, to power.

The monarchy then ruled with strong Western support for the next twenty six years.

For many Iranians this event became the defining symbol of foreign interference in their politics.

  • Operation Ajaxthe 1953 CIA and MI6 backed coup that overthrew Iran’s elected prime minister Mohammad Mosaddegh.

6.3 THE PAHLAVI MONARCHY – MODERNISATION AND AUTHORITARIAN RULE

After the coup the Shah launched an ambitious programme of rapid modernisation.

This included the White Revolution, a series of reforms intended to transform Iranian society.

These reforms included:

• land redistribution
• industrial expansion
• education programmes
• women’s suffrage

But the political system remained authoritarian.

Opposition parties were suppressed.

The secret police organisation SAVAK became notorious for repression.

Meanwhile Western influence remained highly visible.

Iran became one of Washington’s key regional allies during the Cold War.

For many Iranians the system came to represent modernisation without political freedom and independence.


6.4 THE ISLAMIC REVOLUTION – THE SYSTEM COLLAPSES (1979)

By the late 1970s opposition to the Shah united a wide range of forces:

• religious leaders
• nationalists
• students
• left wing movements

Mass protests escalated during 1978.

In February 1979, the monarchy collapsed and Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini returned from exile to lead the revolution.

Iran became the Islamic Republic of Iran, replacing the monarchy with a political system combining clerical authority and republican institutions.

The revolution dramatically changed Iran’s relations with the West.

Later that year Iranian students seized the U.S. embassy in Tehran, triggering the hostage crisis and the breakdown of diplomatic relations.

  • Islamic Republica political system combining religious authority with republican political institutions.

6.5 FOUR DECADES OF CONFRONTATION (1979–2025)

Since the revolution Iran has existed in a tense relationship with Western powers.

Several key events shaped this period:

• the Iran–Iraq War (1980–1988)
• decades of economic sanctions
• disputes over Iran’s nuclear programme
• regional proxy conflicts involving groups aligned with Tehran

Diplomatic efforts have occasionally reduced tensions.

The most significant was the 2015 nuclear agreement (JCPOA).

However the agreement collapsed after the United States withdrew in 2018, reimposing sanctions.

Since then relations have deteriorated again.

Regional conflicts involving Israel, Lebanon, Gaza, Syria and Yemen increasingly intersect with the confrontation between Iran and Western allies.

  • Sanctionseconomic restrictions imposed by states to pressure another country’s government.

6.6 IRAN AND THE NEW REGIONAL STRUGGLE (2025–2026)

By the mid 2020s Iran has become a central actor in the strategic balance of West Asia.

It is simultaneously:

• a regional military power
• a centre of ideological resistance to Western influence
• a target of sanctions and strategic pressure

Tensions escalated again during 2025–2026, with Israeli and American military actions and Iranian retaliation raising fears of wider war across the region.

From Tehran’s perspective the struggle is part of a long historical arc beginning with the foreign interventions of the early twentieth century.

From Washington and its allies’ perspective Iran represents a disruptive regional challenger.

Thus the conflict that began with oil concessions and imperial rivalry more than a century ago continues to shape the geopolitics of the present.


6.7 THE PERSIAN PARALLEL

Seen alongside the history of the Arab Middle East, Iran represents a parallel story rather than a separate one.

In both cases the decisive forces were:

• foreign oil interests
• great power rivalry
• local nationalist movements
• political systems struggling between modernisation and sovereignty

But while the Arab world was shaped by colonial mandates, Iran’s trajectory was shaped by covert intervention and revolution.

The result is the geopolitical landscape visible today.

  • National sovereigntythe principle that a state should control its own political and economic decisions without external domination.

1906 - Constitutional Revolution1

1953 - CIA / MI6 coup

1979- Islamic Revolution

2025 / 2026 - Iran at the centre of a new regional war

7. A CENTURY OF CONSEQUENCES - THE ENDURING LEGACY

The secret agreements became public after the Russian Revolution.

In November 1917 the Bolsheviks published the text of Sykes Picot.

Arab leaders discovered Britain had promised their lands to other powers.

T.E. Lawrence later wrote that he felt he had been a fraud, promising freedom while knowing the agreements.

The McMahon Hussein correspondence remained secret until 1939.

Meanwhile the mandates reshaped the region.

Syria and Lebanon were divided under French control.

Iraq was created from three Ottoman provinces – Mosul, Baghdad and Basra.

Kurds promised autonomy under the Treaty of Sèvres saw it disappear in the Treaty of Lausanne.

Britain installed Faisal as king of Iraq in 1921 under a constitution designed to preserve British influence.

Palestine became the site of accelerating Jewish immigration and Arab resistance.

The Arab Revolt of 1936 – 1939 was crushed by British forces.

In 1948, Israel appeared on the map for the first time, despite its not honouring the terms of recognition required by the United Nations. Rhere followed the displacement of roughly 700,000 Palestinians - the Nakba (the catastrophe).

Refugee communities continue to exist across Lebanon, Jordan and Syria today.


8. CONCLUSION - CAPITAL AND CONFLICT

The years 1915 to 1922 reveal a powerful relationship between financial capital and geopolitical decisions.

The men drawing borders were not only diplomats.

They were linked to systems of finance, oil concessions and strategic trade routes.

Arabs were promised independence to mobilise wartime support.

Zionism gained backing partly from conviction and partly from strategic and financial considerations.

Borders were drawn according to strategic corridors and oil concessions rather than local social realities.

The people living in these territories were rarely consulted.

The lines drawn during those years became the borders of states, armies and identities.

History continues to operate through institutions, borders and unresolved promises.

Lines drawn in 1916 continue to shape political tensions today.

The Middle East seen in current headlines was constructed in those negotiations - by those men - for those interests.

The conflicts are not simply ancient rivalries.

They are the consequences of decisions taken deliberately during the collapse of an empire.