7 May 2025
Neil Howe’s theory of the Fourth Turning is about a cyclical pattern of history where every 80-100 years, societies undergo a major crisis that reshapes institutions and values.
According to Howe, we’re currently in the Fourth Turning, a period of upheaval that began around 2008, following periods of growth, awakening, and unraveling.
How We Got Here
The Fourth Turning is the result of the failures and unresolved tensions from the previous "turnings":
First Turning (High): After World War II, the post-war boom brought stability and strong institutions, a time of collective unity and confidence.
Second Turning (Awakening): The 1960s-70s saw a rise in individualism, social revolutions, and a challenge to authority, weakening institutions and creating societal divisions.
Third Turning (Unraveling): From the 1980s to early 2000s, institutions lost further trust, and society became more polarised and fragmented, setting the stage for the Fourth Turning.
What the Future Holds
In the Fourth Turning, societies face a crisis that could either lead to total collapse or the creation of a new order. Historically, these crises are resolved through decisive action - often conflict, revolution, or war.
In today's context, this could manifests itself in global geopolitical conflicts, major economic instabilities and / or restructuring, or societal transformation, the kind of conflicts we're seeing in capitol cities across the West.
Leaders and societies will be forced to make tough choices that will define a post-crisis world.
The outcome could bring renewal, where stronger institutions and a new social contract emerge, or, if mismanaged, deeper chaos and major decline.
