Showing posts with label #IR. Show all posts
Showing posts with label #IR. Show all posts

Thursday, 6 February 2025

HAS THE WORLD CHANGED SINCE 24 FEBRUARY 2022

6 February 2025

The Decline of the West,
by Oswald Spengler

SUMMARY

It might seem obvious, but it’s worth stating clearly: we’re entering—indeed, we’ve already entered—a completely new world. Consider the following points:

1. Western Preeminence Diminishing
Since 1492, the West has dominated the globe. After five centuries of unrivalled influence, that preeminence is now fading.

2. Conflict Returns to Europe
Europe is no longer at peace. We’re witnessing a renewed era of nations fighting within Europe—an upheaval few foresaw.

3. Superpower Confrontations
For the past 80 years, there has been no direct military confrontation between superpowers. Yet today, America is at war with Russia and seemingly heading toward conflict with China.

4. Cultural and Value Systems in Flux
Setting aside DEI as a possible short-lived phenomenon, we see our traditional Greco-Roman, Judeo-Christian, and Enlightenment heritage—emphasising individual rights, secular governance, and the rule of law—challenged by Islamic values, which are just as diverse and equally valid but derived from the Qur’an and Hadith, focusing on community, religious morality, and social justice.

5. Shifting Atlantic Alliance
For 80 years, Europe and America stood as equal partners in an Atlantic alliance. Now, Europe increasingly feels like a vassal to an American empire, reliant on a waning NATO umbrella. The bitter, decades-long (potentially centuries-long) rift with Russia leaves Europe dealing with a “cesspool” in Ukraine right on its doorstep.

6. Russia’s Pivot to Asia
Historically an Asiatic power that aspired to join Europe since the 18th century—echoed in Helsinki 1975, Gorbachev’s “common European home,” and Putin’s early attempts to partner with NATO and the EU—Russia now finds itself pushed out of Europe. Through what many see as the West’s own shortsightedness, Russia, with its abundant energy, food, and mineral resources, is driven into the arms of China, a formidable rival to the West. Where Russia might have become an enduring friend and economic partner, it is instead cast as an adversary.

7. Rise of Multipolar Power
It’s not that the West has simply lost power; rather, the rest of the world—once colonised or overshadowed—has caught up. Now we no longer hold a singularly dominant position; power is dispersed among many centres. Exploring how this came about and where it leads us is another grand story worth telling.

DETAIL
It might feel pretty obvious, but it still needs to be said and understood that we are entering - and are already in - a completely new world. Just consider the following.

The most obvious and topical is that the West has dominated the planet since 1492, but is now losing its preeminence after five hundred years.

Another enormous change is that we are now fighting each other in Europe, Europe is no longer at peace.

Furthermore, there have been 80 years with no military confrontation between superpowers, but now we have America at war with Russia and seeking conflict with China.

As to internal social cohesion and putting aside DEI which looks to be a passing phenomenon with the return to merit-based equality, our values drawn from Greek, Roman, Judeo-Christian, and Enlightenment legacies, promoting individual rights, secular governance, and the rule of law, are being challenged by Islamic values, similarly diverse, equally valid but different, originating from the Qur’an and Hadith, emphasising community, religious morality, and social justice.

Another big change. We've enjoyed 80 years of the Atlantic Alliance, but as where this started off with Europe and America as equal partners, we now feel we are vassals of an American empire and that the NATO umbrella and America's interest in Europe is on the wane, leaving us with a bitter relationship with Russia that will endure decades, and maybe centuries, huge economic consequences and the cesspool that is Ukraine bubbling away in our midst.

Another massive change is that Russia, which is an Asiatic power who wanted to belong to Europe since the 18th century and going right up to a Helsinki, 1975 and Gorbachev's "common European home", and Putin, who initially wanted Russia to join NATO and the EU but was rebuffed, has now, with its abundant supplies of energy, food and minerals, and entirely through the West's fault, been driven out of Europe and into the arms of China, a very serious competitor to the West, which includes Europe of course. Russia is now our adversary and our enemy, where once it could have been an eternal friend and economic partner. Instead of shutting down NATO after the cold war, it, NATO, found a new role, under american leadership, re badging the former pawns of the Soviet empire.

In sum, it's not so much that the West has lost its power, but more that the rest of the world that we colonised has caught up with us and is overtaking us, so that where once we were the pre-eminent power, there are now many centres of power.... How that came about and where the world is going is another great story worth the telling.

THE FAILURE OF AMERICA TO DOMINATE THE WORLD ISLAND

6 February 2025

There's an awful lot of column inches written and hours talked on YouTube explaining why The West hates Russia and more particularly why The West chose confrontation and block politics after the cold war, over what's called 'indivisible security': the 1975 Helsinki Agreement and later a joint security architecture for a common European home, proposed by Gorbachov.

The best explanation goes to Mackinder, who characterised the World Island as being home to a struggle for survival and dominance between a land power and sea power. 

Mackinder's 1904 paper, "The Geographical Pivot of History" pretty much created geography and geopolitics as a new discipline. His Heartland Theory argues that whoever controls the "World Island" (which is Eurasia) controls global power, and that there's a history of struggle between sea powers (maritime empires) and land powers (continental empires).

There's academic lead-up for this in the form of writings by Thucydides, Clausewitz and Alfred Thayer Mahan ( love to read them one day).

If you look at any map of the world with Greenwich at the centre, there are the Americas on the left; Asia, Europe and Africa on the right; and huge Greenland stuck between the two.

So there's geography and history behind his theory, as well as previous academic work.

But you don't need Mackinder to tell you that - just from looking at a map, Russia is far and away the biggest country in Europe, well the biggest part of its population is in Europe and its stuffed with the richest resources in the world, food energy and minerals, stretching all the way east to Vladivostok.

Then there's The North European Plain that stretches roughly from northern France across Belgium, the Netherlands, northern Germany, Poland and into western Russia.... All the Russian army needs to do is put on its skis and skate down into Western Europe and then take over Central Europe.

(Not that this has happened - after the invasions by Napoleon and Hitler, Russia moved into Central Europe, 'strue, in a move aimed at security rather than invasion.)

Putin's original idea was that Russia should be absorbed into NATO and the EU. But instead, The West thought they had won the cold war and decided on NATO expansion, thinking it would be relatively easy to overcome a weakened Russia.

And the rest, as they say, is history....

Saturday, 1 February 2025

AMERICA'S GEOPOLITICAL DILEMMA IN A MULTIPOLAR WORLD

America’s Geopolitical Dilemma in a Multipolar World

1 February 2025

https://youtu.be/v0uY3ZoDwYs?si=izG19Y0NgQ8T_3-W

The new American administration recognises the world us settling back into a multipolar order, where diplomacy and economic competition take centre stage over military confrontation. It is also very important to recognise that the the new Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, acknowledges that Ukraine has lost the war.

The central concern for Washington’s foreign policy strategists is a long-standing one: preventing any single power—or coalition—from dominating Eurasia, the so-called “World Island” described by Sir Halford Mackinder.

For decades, U.S. policy has sought to maintain equilibrium in Eurasia between land power (Russia, China) and sea power (the Anglo-American alliance). The neoconservative approach has been to disrupt potential challengers before they become existential threats. 

One persistent fear has been a strategic partnership between Germany and Russia, which would merge German industrial strength with Russian resources—a combination that could undercut American influence in Europe and beyond.

How Will the U.S. Manage These Risks?

- Keeping Germany in Check:

The U.S. has long pressured Germany to distance itself from Russia. The sabotage of Nord Stream in 2022—though no one officially claimed responsibility—was widely interpreted as a message: European energy dependence on Russia is unacceptable.

Economic policies, sanctions, and security dependencies (via NATO) serve to keep Berlin aligned with Washington rather than pursuing independent strategic interests.

- Containing Russia and China:

The war in Ukraine has been a proxy battlefield for weakening Russia. While U.S. support has faltered in recent months, the underlying goal remains unchanged: to prevent Russia from becoming a dominant force in Europe.

In Asia, U.S. alliances with Japan, South Korea, and Australia counterbalance China, while economic pressure attempts to stifle Beijing’s technological and military growth.

Moral Contradictions in Foreign Policy:

The U.S. positions itself as a champion of sovereignty and international law in Europe, yet openly supports military interventions and occupations in the Middle East.

How does Washington justify backing Ukrainian nationalism while suppressing Palestinian statehood? How does it reconcile sanctioning Russian annexations while endorsing Israeli settlements? These contradictions weaken America's credibility in the eyes of the Global South and even among segments of its own electorate.

The Cost of Hypocrisy

This double standard has  seriously discredited America. Countries once aligned with the West now pursue greater autonomy, engaging with China’s Belt and Road Initiative or forming alternative economic blocs. 

Meanwhile, at home, the ideological excesses of DEI (Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion) and "woke" politics have created civil divisions, fueled in part by the need to maintain what is an increasingly fragile narrative.

The smothering of dissent—through media narratives, corporate policies, and social pressures—is an attempt to sustain a worldview that is hard to defend. Propaganda may hold for a while, but in a world where multipolarity is reasserting itself, even the most dominant empire cannot ignore reality forever.

When global power shifts, those who fail to adapt risk losing their grip entirely. Under Marco Rubio, it seems that America will adjust its strategy to engage with the new world on equal terms  The alterbative would be to continue down the path of resistance until the system it built after the last workd war collapses under its contradictions. So Rubio understands this.

Friday, 31 January 2025

A BURNT OUT PEOPLE

31 January 2025

A Burnt Out People