Friday, 18 July 2025

A HISTORY OF THE AGILE METHODOLOGY

18 July 2025


1. Overview

The Agile methodology is a set of principles for software development that prioritise flexibility, customer collaboration, and quick delivery over rigid planning and documentation.

2. Origins of Agile

Before Agile, software was typically developed using the Waterfall model – a linear, sequential process.

Problems arose: requirements changed mid-project, documentation-heavy processes slowed delivery, and customers often got what they asked for but not what they needed.

3. Precursors to Agile
Several lightweight, iterative methods emerged to address Waterfall's weaknesses:

Rapid Application Development (RAD)

Scrum (developed in the 1990s)

Extreme Programming (XP)

Feature-Driven Development (FDD)
These shared similar values: shorter cycles, user involvement, and adaptability.

4. The Agile Manifesto (2001)

Seventeen software developers met in Utah and created the Agile Manifesto, which formalised Agile principles.

It valued:

Individuals and interactions over processes and tools

Working software over comprehensive documentation

Customer collaboration over contract negotiation

Responding to change over following a fixed plan

5. Post-Manifesto Evolution

Agile grew into various frameworks like Scrum, Kanban, Lean, and SAFe.

Widely adopted across industries, not just in software.

6. Conclusion
Agile emerged as a reaction to rigid methodologies. Its success lies in delivering usable software faster while adapting to change and maintaining close collaboration with users.

Glossary
Waterfall Model – a step-by-step, linear approach to software development.
Iterative – a cyclical process where feedback and adjustments happen continuously.
Agile Manifesto – a declaration of the core values and principles guiding Agile.
Scrum/XP/FDD – specific Agile frameworks or methodologies.

Source:

AGILE AND SSADM, WHAT IS A USER STORY

17 July 2025


Agile User Stories and SSADM
https://www.visual-paradigm.com/guide/agile-software-development/what-is-user-story/

https://www.atlassian.com/agile/project-management/user-stories

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vwsiPJcVOVw

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jz6UyKuPbRU

1. Summary: What is a User Story?

A user story is a short, simple description of a feature or requirement written from the perspective of the person who desires the functionality—typically a user or customer. In Agile development, user stories replace traditional system requirements to promote flexibility, collaboration, and fast iteration.

A user story typically follows the format:
“As a [type of user], I want [an action] so that [a benefit/a value].”

This ensures the feature is grounded in user value. User stories are intentionally brief and act as placeholders for further conversation and refinement. They are prioritized in a product backlog, broken down into epics or tasks, and selected for development during sprint planning.

A well-written user story is INVEST:
- Independent
- Negotiable
- Valuable
- Estimable
- Small
- Testable

The 'Three Cs' of user stories are:
- Card: The written description (usually on a card or in a tracking system)
- Conversation: Dialogue among stakeholders to clarify and refine
- Confirmation: Acceptance criteria that confirm completion

This method supports iterative development, continuous feedback, and stakeholder engagement.



2. Glossary of Agile User Story Methodology

·        User Story: A brief, simple description of a feature from the user's perspective.

·        Agile: A methodology emphasizing iterative development, collaboration, and flexibility.

·        Product Backlog: A prioritized list of all desired work or features.

·        Epic: A large user story that can be broken down into smaller ones.

·        Task: A technical work unit derived from a user story.

·        Sprint: A fixed time period for completing selected user stories.

·        Sprint Planning: A meeting to choose which user stories to implement during a sprint.

·        INVEST: Checklist for good user stories: Independent, Negotiable, Valuable, Estimable, Small, Testable.

·        Three Cs: Card (description), Conversation (discussion), Confirmation (acceptance criteria).

·        Acceptance Criteria: Conditions that must be met for a story to be complete.

·        Customer-Centric: Focus on delivering value to the user, not internal technical needs.

3. Comparison of Agile User Stories vs. SSADM

SSADM (Structured Systems Analysis and Design Method) is a waterfall methodology focused on thorough planning, rigorous documentation, and structured stages: feasibility, requirements analysis, logical data modeling, etc. It is best for stable and regulated environments.

Agile uses evolving user stories instead of static requirements. It values working software, frequent feedback, and adaptation. Documentation is minimal and collaboration is central.

Agile’s user stories fit a 'Three Layered' approach to requirements:
1. Epics (high-level goals)
2. Stories (concrete features)
3. Tasks (developer-level implementation units)

In contrast, SSADM follows:
1. Business Requirements
2. Functional Specification
3. Technical Specification

Where SSADM assumes requirements are knowable upfront, Agile embraces change and iterative clarification.

4. Glossary Mapping: Agile vs. SSADM

Agile Term

SSADM Equivalent

Comment / Mapping Logic

User Story

Process Specification

Describes functionality; refined into DFD and ELH in SSADM

Epic

Business Area Definition

High-level domain requirements

Task

Elementary Process / Module

Breakdown of a process step in DFD

Product Backlog

Requirements Catalogue

Centralised list of required system behaviours

Sprint

Phase in Project Plan

Time-boxed execution within structured lifecycle

Acceptance Criteria

Test Specification

Formal validation in SSADM

Three Cs

Structured Interview + Requirement Statement

Story lifecycle mirrors early SSADM stages

INVEST

Requirement Quality Guidelines

SSADM lacks explicit acronym but uses best practice

Card

Requirement Entry

Initial placeholder; becomes documented formally in SSADM

Conversation

Stakeholder Workshops

Corresponds to structured interviews and JAD sessions

Confirmation

Verification via Test Plan

Formalised in SSADM Test and Evaluation phase

Backlog Grooming

Requirements Review Meeting

SSADM equivalent is periodic review cycles

Logical Model

LDM (Logical Data Model)

Agile infers data; SSADM models explicitly

Flow of Interaction

DFD (Data Flow Diagram)

DFDs model data movement—analogous to interaction flow

State or Scenarios

ELH (Entity Life History)

Entity behaviour over time; maps loosely to user scenarios


[End]

Sunday, 13 July 2025

THIS ORDER IS FINISHED, HOW TO REPLACE IT

13 July 2025

How to understand Trump, Tulsi and the Role of the Outsider


When I read that Tulsi Gabbard is staying in Trump’s administration, despite being silenced after he bombed Iran - ignoring intelligence she brought to him - I felt a sense of betrayal. She ran in 2020 on an anti-interventionist platform, committed to regime-change restraint and "speaking truth to power". People believed in her integrity. That image helped Trump win in 2024.

She hasn't resigned, she remains quietly loyal. She had millions of followers within the MAGA movement who trusted her honesty. What do they feel now? Cornered, confused, betrayed, sickened - seeing another promise broken in the name of loyalty to Trump - Ukraine, Iran, Epstein....

We saw similar reversals over Epstein’s files, or Trump’s pledge to halt the Ukraine war in 24 hours...only for him to now want to rearm Kyiv. This outsider was meant to dismantle the very systems that birthed him. Instead, he’s been absorbed into the establishment. He’s gone from outsider to insider, now part of the establishment he once railed against.

I’ve met people like this before. They start with a chip on their shoulder, climb in, and once they gain acceptance, true reform disappears. It becomes clear that his real loyalty is to his own standing. The rest was rhetoric - the consequences of what he says don't matter to him, his positions are not serious.

At this point, total cynicism seems the only rational response to any saviour narrative. As tempting as the sirens sound, we must “strap ourselves to the mast”. Listen without giving up ourselves. Not be fooled by grand promises, not be deceived.

So, what do we do? We act locally, not globally. The idea I learned was “think global, act local". Build resilience in local communities. Pockets of resistance can crack the system better than national revolts.

What we need now is not revolution, but insurgency in the grassroots sense, new systems emerging in the cracks of the old. Self-help (self build), alternative independent media outlets, parallel financial tools (gold, crypto, local credit unions / building societies, barter), local education efforts including youtube, neighbourhood resilience end resistance. These aren’t panaceas, but they keep a culture of resistance alive while the old order crumbles away.

Finally, if the economic and institutional structure is collapsing, what replaces it? Is it invasion, an outside power, a foreign Empire? Or is it an insurgency of local systems, plank by plank, bottom-up, that gradually builds something more lasting?

This is not utopian, it’s pragmatic. The fourth turning is here. If we’re smart, it’s our best shot at generational change when all the supposed saviours and utopianists have let us down.


Sunday, 6 July 2025

THE BRITISH EMPIRE HAS NOT DISAPPEARED, IT HAS DE-MATERIALISED

6 July 2025

Yesterday, we looked at Britain's influence over Washington. In this post, we shall consider the view that “all that’s left of the British Empire is the City of London”, and that financial power, not military empire, remains Britain’s legacy and its tool of influence.

1. The City of London: What Is It?

The City of London (not to be confused with Greater London) is a tiny, ancient jurisdiction - a square mile - with its own Lord Mayor, its own police force, and a certain legal status. In practical / financial matters, it is one of the three global nodes of finance alongside Wall Street and Hong Kong / Shanghai.

The British Empire once ruled over a quarter of the world's land and people, with its authority backed by naval power, colonial governors, and direct political control. Today, the Union Jack no longer flies over distant dominions, but the empire has not vanished, it has evolved from military rule to financial rule. A rule centred in the City of London and its offshore networks, where influence flows quietly through law, money, and global finance.

So the British Empire has faded in a military, overt power and control sense, but the City remains an empire of financing capital: a global command centre for currency trading, offshore finance, investment banking, and legal arbitration.

2. What Are Its Powers?

Here are the core instruments of financial power based in or routed through the City:

2.1 Foreign Exchange Control

London is the world’s largest foreign exchange market.

Over $3.8 trillion trades daily through the City (Bank for International Settlements, 2022).

This gives enormous leverage over currency flows, and thus over the monetary sovereignty of other nations.


2.2 Offshore Empire

The British "spider web" of offshore financial centres includes Jersey, Guernsey, the Cayman Islands, British Virgin Islands, Bermuda, Gibraltar, and more.

These Crown Dependencies and Overseas Territories are legally distinct but act as tax havens and secrecy jurisdictions.

No one should be surprised when global elites and corporations use the good offices of the City of London to avoid taxes, hide assets, and move capital invisibly.

2.3 Legal and Dispute Infrastructure

So that is as to the empire of tax havens and secrecy jurisdictions.

In addition, the British law we are so proud of governs most international contracts, especially in shipping, insurance, and trade finance.

London is the preferred venue for commercial arbitration and debt resolution, even for foreign clients with no link to Britain.

This creates a judicial ecosystem that silently influences how global business is done.

2.4 Financialisation of Industry

The City manages financial services and rhus how finance and investment is used to dominate the production of real goods. This financialisation model was later exported to the US under Reagan and Clinton.

We have discussed in previous posts how financialisation of economies is achieved and its consequences - British economic elites shifted away from manufacturing post-WWII and backed neoliberal globalisation, a switch that began in the 1980s and really accelerated with China's admission to the WTO at the turn of the century. This evolution benefited finance but shipped out the industrial base to low labour cost countries.

2.5 Influence Over Washington

- Through shared interests between Anglo-American banks (e.g. HSBC, Barclays, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan) and law firms, there exists what some call an “Atlanticist deep-finance network.”

Take, for example, the case of Clifford Chance LLP, one of the UK’s “Magic Circle” firms. Clifford Chance specialises in banking, finance, capital markets, and international dispute resolution. It has deep ties to global banks, hedge funds, and sovereign wealth clients. With offices in over 30 countries, it has a truly global reach.

- The Federal Reserve, IMF, and World Bank are often staffed and influenced by alumni from institutions entwined with the City.

For example, Mark Carney is a key figure in global finance. He embodies the Anglo-American financial nexus. A former Governor of both the Bank of England and Bank of Canada, now PM of Canada, Carney spent over a decade at Goldman Sachs in London, specialising in sovereign risk and emerging markets. He later chaired the Financial Stability Board, advised the UN on climate finance, and played a leading role in shaping central bank digital currency (CBDC) policy, linking The City of London, Wall Street, and multilateral bodies like the IMF and World Bank.

- Think tanks (e.g. Chatham House, Atlantic Council) link British and U.S. policy circles with financial backing from City-connected entities. This is where the vision is conceived.

Here's a brief, concrete example. Chatham House, a leading UK foreign policy think tank, regularly hosts senior figures from British banks, oil firms, and legal consultancies... many with City of London ties. Its funders include HSBC, Shell, and Standard Chartered, and it collaborates with the Atlantic Council, its U.S. counterpart, which is backed by JPMorgan Chase, BlackRock, and Goldman Sachs. These institutions shape reports on global governance, sanctions policy, and financial regulation, as used by policymakers in both London and Washington.

3. How Is This Power Used?

We have looked at the five most important sources of power of the City of London:

1 - Foreign Exchange ControlLondon is the world’s largest foreign exchange market.
2 - Offshore Empire of Crown Dependencies and Overseas Territories that act as tax havens and secrecy jurisdictions.
3 - The Legal and Dispute Infrastructure that makes London the preferred venue for commercial arbitration and debt resolution.
4 - Financialisation of Industry is at least in part managed by The City, its financial services that dominate the productive capacity of The West.
5 - Influence Over Washington, achieved through think tanks linking British and U.S. policy circles with financial backing from City-connected entities.

Now let's look at how these powers are exercised in the execution of the City's interests and plans.

3.1 Market Leverage

The City can make or break currencies, tank emerging markets, or starve countries of capital. Nowadays, it does this with trade in preference to troops.

When a state challenges the liberal financial order (e.g. capital controls, nationalisation of national assets), it risks being locked out of markets or hit with a currency run. Colour revolutions replace non-conforming governments.

3.2 Elite Integration

Global billionaires and kleptocrats keep their money in British offshore centres, in laundered bank accounts, on investment platforms, in London real estate.

This creates a tacit alliance: oligarchs who may oppose the West politically are compromised by their financial dependence.

3.3 Policy Shaping via the IMF and World Bank

These institutions promote free-market capitalism, open capital flows, and global economic integration. They enforce integration through application of the “rules”: privatisation, deregulation, austerity.

The City’s expertise, staffing, and political networks heavily influence and lead these organisations, even as they sit in Washington, arch home of "the Deep State".

4. A “Post-Imperial” Empire of Finance?

While Britain no longer rules through redcoats and viceroys, it still exerts soft and hard power through its financial infrastructure.

The Transformation: Old Empire to Modern Format

This is how the old empire continues to punch above its weight and lead Washington:

Naval supremacy -> Currency and capital flow dominance
Governors and Raj -> Compliance lawyers and hedge fund managers
Colonial taxation -> Tax havens and offshore arbitrage
Gunboats -> Sanctions, tariffs, confiscations, even market pressure and "forward guidance".

5. Conclusion: The Empire Didn't Die, It Dissolved into Credit and Contracts.

The claim that “all that remains of the British Empire is the City of London” may be partly metaphorical, but it comes across as true.  What has happened is that the form of control has changed, from explicit political and military control over the sovereignty of other estates, to coaxing them in to financial dependency, from land ro balance sheets, from army uniform to pinstripe suit - this is the real reason why Britain no longer has an army . 

The form of control has changed, but the reach remains global, the tools are more subtle and complex, but the consequences - 
nations lose sovereignty and are vassalised, public services are sold off cheaply to new oligarchs, inequality widens, entire economies can be crashed, governments get replaced - are just as real.

Control of capital flows, legal contracts, and offshore safe havens has replaced territorial conquest - the pen (and the spreadsheet) are mightier than the sword.

Saturday, 5 July 2025

4TH OF JULY. HOW INDEPENDENT IS AMERICA OF BRITAIN?

5 July 2025

HOW INDEPENDENT IS AMERICA FROM BRITAIN?

1. 4 July: Political Independence, Economic Entanglement
The U.S. declared its political break from Britain on this day in 1776. But beneath the flags and fireworks, a deeper entanglement remains, especially in the financial, intelligence, and elite spheres. The question isn’t whether America governs itself, but whether it does so free of the old imperial circuitry.

2. Empire Repackaged as Finance
The City of London is no ordinary district. It’s a sovereign-like financial enclave, a global hub for offshore money, derivatives, forex, and tax avoidance. Many of America’s biggest corporations and hedge funds still operate through its looser regulations and offshore extensions like the Cayman Islands and Jersey. This isn’t colonialism—it’s soft entrapment, entrapment by design.

3. Still Whispering in the Corridors
Old ties never died, they just adapted. A network of shared education (Oxbridge, Ivy League), think tanks (Chatham House, Council on Foreign Relations), media (Economist, WSJ), and global finance (The City, Cambridge, Wall Street, rhe offshore treasure islands), continues to align U.S. and British elite interests. Quigley called it the Anglo-American Establishment. It’s not conspiracy, it’s structure. You can trace it from Bretton Woods to BlackRock.

4. Strategic Culture – The Shadow of Empire (The Five Eyes intelligence alliance) binds the UK and U.S. in near-total surveillance cooperation, with a sifnificant regional role for Israel. Military strategies, especially in the Middle East and Russia, often follow old British imperial routes and date back to the First Crimean War and Mackinder. Even soft power (the BBC, English common law, royal mystique) maintains a ghostly grip on America’s elite imagination.

5. Conclusion – Free, but not unentangled,
America is sovereign on paper, but in finance, strategy, and elite thinking, it remains woven into Britain’s imperial after-life, in particular via the City of London. The real independence war never ended, it just moved offshore.


Wednesday, 2 July 2025

THE SIGNIFICANCE OF THE CAUCUSES

2 July 2025

Azerbaijan crime ring, offset 1h20m

1. The Caucasus as "Shatterbelt"

Like the Balkans and the Levant, the Caucasus is what geopolitical theorists call a shatterbelt: a region caught between rival powers, fragmented by history, and prone to chronic instability.

This is a very mountainous zone, sandwiched between the Black and Caspian Seas. Its rugged topography of mountains, valleys, and rivers sharpens ethnic divisions, but its geography also makes it a natural transit corridor between Europe, Russia, Central Asia, and the Middle East.

2. A Region of Empires and Faultlines

For centuries, the Caucasus was contested by Turkey, Russia, and Persia. Even under Soviet control, Moscow never fully subdued the region, which includes volatile territories such as Chechnya.

The region’s diversity is staggering: dozens of peoples, languages, and faiths - Orthodox Christians, Shia and Sunni Muslims, Jews, Yazidis - all shaped by bitter memories of past imperialism, genocide, and forced migration. These faultlines are political as much as they are ethnic.

3. Shatterbelts on the Edge of Empire

Looking at a map, the Balkans, Levant, and Caucasus all lie along the tectonic political plates of Europe and Asia. When outside powers weaken or start backing different local actors, the communities of the Caucasus often default back to historic conflicts.

In particular, if Russia fails to secure its southeastern flank, it faces potential threats from Iran, or from jihadist flows and instability across the Middle East.

4. The Energy Corridor and Russia’s Strategic Dilemma

Of more immediate importance: two critical oil and gas pipelines traverse the South Caucasus, connecting Caspian Sea energy reserves to Western markets, and bypassing Russian and Iranian territory. This corridor is now of vital importance to Europe, given the steep drop in Russian energy imports as a result of the proxy war in Ukraine.

For Russia, the stakes are double-edged. It opposes these pipelines yet also has a growing interest in maintaining good relations with Iran - Iran is the only country that offers Moscow a realistic land-and-sea route to the Persian Gulf and Arabian Sea, bypassing Western-controlled chokepoints.

5. Conclusion: The New Great Game

What we are witnessing is the continuation of the Great Game that was once fought out between Imperial Britain, jealous particularly of the route to India, and Tsarist Russia, now being played out between NATO, Russia, Iran, and also rising Asian powers.

The Caucasus remains what it has always been: a "buffer, a battleground, and a bottleneck", as one writer, put it. Whether this region settles into fragile peace or erupts once again into conflict will depend not only on local actors, but on the shifting ambitions and fears of the great powers that surround it.

Glossary of Terms

1. Shatterbelt
A region caught between major powers, prone to fragmentation and conflict.
The Caucasus, like the Balkans and the Levant, lies between empires and civilisations. These regions often experience repeated foreign intervention, ethnic division, and wars—especially when global power balances shift.

2. The Great Game
A 19th-century term for the strategic rivalry between the British and Russian Empires in Central Asia.
The “new” Great Game refers to today’s geopolitical contest over the Caucasus, Central Asia, and energy routes, now involving Russia, NATO, Iran, China, and others.

3. Energy Corridor
A route that transports oil and gas from resource-rich regions to international markets.
The South Caucasus hosts pipelines that carry Caspian energy westward to Europe, bypassing Russian and Iranian territory. This makes the region vital to energy security.

4. Caspian Sea
The world’s largest inland body of water, bordered by Russia, Iran, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, and Azerbaijan.
Rich in oil and gas reserves, it is a focal point of competition between powers that seek control of its energy exports

5. Strait of Hormuz
A narrow sea passage between the Persian Gulf and the Arabian Sea.
Roughly 30% of the world’s seaborne oil passes through it, largely to Europe. Although not in the Caucasus, Russia’s interest in accessing this strait via Iran underlines its strategic ambitions.

6. Buffer Zone
A region situated between two rival powers, often unstable but important for security.
The Caucasus acts as a buffer between Russia and the Middle East, and between Western and Eastern spheres of influence.

7. Ethno-religious Fragmentation
The coexistence of multiple ethnic and religious groups in a single region, often without a shared national identity.
This defines much of the Caucasus, home to Armenians, Azerbaijanis, Georgians, Chechens, Ossetians, Lezgins, and more.

8. Proxy War
A conflict where external powers support different local sides rather than fight directly.
The Ukraine war is the most visible example today, but the Caucasus has also seen foreign-backed factions play out wider rivalries.

9. Hierarchy
This is about order and chaos. The word "hierarchy" comes from the Greek "hierarkhia," meaning "rule of a high priest," which combines "hieros" (holy) and "archos" (ruler). Ipposite: anarchy - from Greek anarkhia "lack of a leader, the state of people without a government".

[End]

Saturday, 28 June 2025

UKRAINE, THE EU AND THE BROKEN STAIRCASE TO EU MEMBERSHIP.

28 June 2025

Ukraine, the EU, and the Broken Staircase to Europe

1. The Promise That Sparked a Revolution

The 2014 Maidan uprising, known as "EuroMaidan," was driven by a single powerful belief: that Ukraine was on a path toward integration into the European Union. The EU Association Agreement, though technically limited to trade and legal convergence, was interpreted by many Ukrainians as a concrete first step toward eventual EU membership. When then-President Viktor Yanukovych suspended its ratification under pressure, mass protests erupted. The square Maidan filled, the flags waved, and eventually, the government fell. But the European dream remains unfulfilled.

2. A Long-Held Aspiration

While NATO membership was deeply divisive in Ukraine before 2014, EU membership was not. Polls showed consistent majority support for joining the EU. This aspiration was not merely bureaucratic, it was existential. Ukrainians wanted to live in a rule-based society, to travel freely, and to be anchored in a European future. EuroMaidan was as much a cry for dignity and direction as it was about paperwork and trade.

3. Russia's Objection: A Rational Trade Concern

Western narratives often paint Russia’s opposition to Ukraine’s EU Association Agreement as political meddling. But there is a crucial economic dimension that is often ignored.

At the time, Ukraine already had a free trade agreement with Russia under the CIS (Commonwealth of Independent States) framework. If Ukraine also entered into a deep trade agreement with the EU, then European goods could enter Ukraine tariff-free, and from there, be re-exported into Russiabypassing Russian import restrictions and duties.

In short: Russia risked losing control over its external trade policy, as Ukraine would become a conduit for EU goods. The arrangement would undermine Russian domestic producers while allowing European exporters backdoor access to the Russian market.

Ironically, when the EU and UK negotiated the Northern Ireland Protocol after Brexit, the EU used the exact same argument to protect its single market: that British goods could enter the EU via Northern Ireland unless strict customs controls were implemented. In this light, Russia’s objections to the EU-Ukraine deal appear not only understandable but identical to EU logic - the logic remains the same, but the EU flipped for political reasons.

4. The Conflict Begins

When Yanukovych tried to renegotiate the deal - proposing trilateral talks involving Russia - the EU refused. The EU deemed the Association Agreement non-negotiable and would not change "a single punctuation mark". That refusal - and the pressure it created - triggered the sequence of events that led to regime change (a coup supported by the CIA, according to many independent analysts), Crimea’s annexation, and eventually the war.

Many Ukrainians believed EU membership was within reach. The movement even took the name “EuroMaidan.” Websites, protest art, and banners bore the EU flag. And so when the war began, the hardship was endured under the belief that it was part of the price to “return to Europe.”

5. A Shattering Disillusionment

Now, as Brussels signals cold feet and the possibility of EU entry fades, the emotional toll may be immense. A broken promise on EU membership would not just be a diplomatic setback—it would be a psychological catastrophe for a population that endured immense suffering under the assumption that their sacrifices had meaning.

Yet current opinion polling though sparse and difficult to trust under martial law, suggests that many Ukrainians are exhausted. 72% reportedly support a ceasefire or freezing of the conflict, and only 16% favour continuing the war indefinitely. Enthusiasm for reclaiming all lost territory has waned.

Still, bitterness could erupt if EU membership is formally ruled out. It would signal that the entire Maidan movement - the hundreds of thousands of deaths, the war and devastation of Ukraine's built environment, the economic devastation - was in vain, all in vain. As one commentator noted, Ukrainians followed a staircase labelled "Europe"—and now find it leading nowhere.

6. Conclusion: The Illusion That Fueled the Fire

EU membership was never a guarantee. But it was treated as a moral contract, a shared dream between Ukraine and the EU. If that promise is broken, it may not spark another revolution, but it will deepen the sense of betrayal, trauma, and fatigue, already spreading through a shattered nation.



Tuesday, 24 June 2025

FALLOUT FROM AMERICA BOMBING IRAN'S URANIUM NUCLEAR FACILITIES.

24 June 2025

It was always a stupid idea to want to blow 400 kg of highly enriched uranium out of its safe bunkers, deep underground, up and out into the atmosphere and strewn across the surface of the planet, blown by the winds, hither and thither.

But even dumber was to imagine that the owners would not have taken steps to safeguard their little haul, because now, no one except a handful of highly trusted officials know where it is! It's gone walkies!!

Offers of help to find it must be pouring in, but I imagine the owners will accept offers from anyone able to quickly turn it into an atomic weapon.

Stupid is as stupid does.



Monday, 23 June 2025

TRUMP BOMBS IRAN'S TOP THREE NUCLEAR FACILITIES

23 June 2025

TRUMP BOMBS TOP THREE IRANIAN NUCLEAR FACILITIES


1. Has Trump Been Played by Israel? Or Is This High-Stakes Theatre?

The United States has now joined Israel in bombing Iranian nuclear sites, a step no previous U.S. president has taken. The question many are asking is: why? Has Trump allowed himself to be manipulated by Tel Aviv? Or is this calculated theatrics to appease allies and protect political capital?

Even from a MAGA vantage point, it’s hard to square recent events with constitutional or international legality, economic rationality, or geopolitical strategy. Can a U.S. president lawfully launch strikes without Congressional approval? Technically yes, under the War Powers Resolution, but only under certain conditions. Many would argue Trump is bypassing constitutional checks, behaving more like a monarch than an elected president.

2. The Oil Barrel Is the Canary in the Coal Mine

A good place to begin understanding this situation is with the price of oil. As of this writing, Brent crude is hovering around $70. But following Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz in response to the U.S.-Israeli strikes, analysts expect prices to surge - potentially reaching $90 to $120 per barrel.

Why does this matter? Because energy is the lifeblood of industrial economies. A jump in oil prices raises production costs, triggers supply chain distortions, and fuels consumer inflation. That in turn leads to wage demands and tighter corporate margins. The classic recipe for a stagflationary spiral.

3. Recession Risk: The Clock is Ticking

A recession is defined as two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth. Higher oil prices alone are enough to threaten this. Consumers cut back. Businesses pull back. And once demand slumps, investment dries up.

Normally, central banks respond by easing policy - cutting interest rates to stimulate borrowing and production. But that’s not so easy this time. The U.S. is approaching the final stages of an 80-year debt supercycle. Government debt now stands at 122% of GDP, and the fiscal deficit is running at 6–7% of GDP. To bridge that gap, Washington must borrow by issuing more Treasury bonds, or print.

4. The End of the Treasury Game?

Traditionally, countries like China have recycled their trade surpluses into U.S. assets: Treasuries, equities, and even real estate. This "vendor financing" model let's call it, kept U.S. interest rates low and asset markets booming.

But if the U.S. economy heads into recession and inflation rises, foreign buyers may accelerate dumping Treasuries, lowering demand for us Treasuries.. Lower demand means lower prices, which means higher yields, and thus a rising cost of debt for Washington.

Meanwhile, credit spreads (the difference between safe government borrowing and risky private-sector lending) are widening. This puts additional pressure on business margins and private investment.

5. The Fiscal Cliff: 20% to Debt, 100% to Welfare...and then some

Right now, 20% of federal tax receipts go to servicing debt, and mandatory welfare programmes consume 100% of all revenue. That leaves nothing for discretionary spending - defence, infrastructure, R&D - unless the government borrows even more.

And now there’s another war. Wars are expensive. Fuel prices surge. Global shipping is threatened. All this as the Fed faces an impossible choice.

6. The Fed’s Impossible Dilemma

The Federal Reserve is cornered:

Raise rates to attract bond investors? That would cool inflation but crash the economy.

Cut rates to avoid recession? That would spur inflation and collapse the dollar.

This war, if prolonged, could break the global economy’s back. The Strait of Hormuz is the choke point for 30% of global seaborne oil (mostly going to Europe incidentally, while America is self-sufficient in energy). A prolonged closure would ignite energy shocks not seen since the 1970s.

7. Is This War Real, or Just Political Theatre?

There’s another possibility: that the U.S. strike was more symbolic than strategic. Trump may have sought to placate Israel and burnish his own image as a defender of Western civilisation, while calculating that Iran’s response would be limited. There are various reports going around that through the usual Swiss back channels, Trump’s administration essentially informed Iran of the strikes, implying that as long as Iran does not respond it will be a ‘one-off’ attack

Early reports show that no radiation has been detected at the bombed nuclear sites. That suggests either the strikes were limited in scope, or perhaps the nuclear material was moved out, possibly to Russia or China. So no-war Trump could be appeasing the neocons in his camp.

If that’s so, there could be.a negotiated de-escalation, Iran reopening the Strait of Hormuz and no further strikes. The world can breathe again until next time....

8. Final Thoughts: The Edge of the Abyss

This crisis may yet pass. But if it doesn’t, if oil remains above $100, if Iran persists or retaliates unpredictably, if America is unwilling or unable to unblock the strait of Hormuz, if the Fed is forced into monetary acrobatics, if the conflict escalates... then we’re staring at a very dangerous convergence: war, recession, fiscal breakdown, currency instability, maybe worse....end of the nuclear proliferation treaty and of credibility the International Atomic Energy Authority, IAEA.... Perhaps iran will finally think about turning to developing a nuclear deterrent.

Trump may claim this is about making America great again. But when markets crash, inflation bites, and allies distance themselves, what exactly is being made great?

Saturday, 21 June 2025

ISRAEL'S ECONOMIC FRAGILITY

21 JUNE 2025


1. Israel Is Not One Economy

Israel’s economy is starkly divided: affluent tech hubs (Tel Aviv, Herzliya) versus peripheral, marginalized regions (Negev, Galilee, East Jerusalem).

Defence funding is heavily skewed to areas under threat.

Economic resilience varies sharply across regions and communities.

2. Fiscal Fragility in Wartime

Defence spending has surged, crowding out civilian investment.

War with Iran (2025), ongoing conflict in Gaza and Lebanon, and regional instability are accelerating deficits.

Fitch downgraded Israel's credit; Bank of Israel estimates war costs at ~$55 billion 2023 - 2025 .

3. Overpromising the Welfare State

Entitlements to pensions, veterans, settlers, and religious institutions remain rigid.

Wartime funding priorities clash with enduring welfare commitments.

Social support increasingly stretched amid inflation and economic slowdown

4. Volatile Tax Base and Growth Engine

Tech exports once buoyed revenue; now capital flight and declining receipts weigh heavily.

Consumer spending fell ~27%, exports ~18% post-Gaza war .

Revenue volatility undermines budget stability.

5. Undiversified Economic Exposure

Israel depends heavily on military tech and cyber exports.

Non-military sectors (tourism, agriculture) collapsed amid regional conflict.

Geopolitical tension isolates Israel from West Asia markets.

6. Demographic Shift & Strategic Emigration

Mass emigration: ~82,700 Israelis left in 2024; only 23,800 returned .

Departure surged ~285% after 7 October .

Nearly 60,000 left permanently in early 2024 (+59%) .

Young and skilled emigrants dominate: 81% under 45 .

This mirrors a brain drain, weakening Israel’s economic core .

7. Governance Dysfunction Amid Crises

Prolonged coalition instability peaked during 2023–2024 judicial reforms.

Political paralysis at critical moments (post October 7, war escalation) hinders recovery.

Leadership fixates on internal battles rather than national resilience.

8. Collapse of Confidence

The 7 October breach shattered confidence in national security .

International investors scaled back projects; millionaires fled ($1,700,000 lost in 2023) .

Israel's reputation fractured among allies and Sunni neighbours.

9. Case Studies: Gaza Border, Galilee, Settlements

Gaza border areas remain destroyed and depopulated.

Northern towns under missile threat suffer from business shutdowns.

Settlements drain resources and deepen foreign diplomatic isolation.

10. Diversification Blocked by Geopolitics

Regional war disrupts proposed export corridors to Gulf and Asia.

Opportunities in green energy, biotech, or manufacturing are frozen.

Israel’s West Asia positioning isolates it from economic peers.

11. Political Paralysis as a Risk Multiplier

Coalition-building revolves around ideologies, not reform.

Judicial tussles, settler politics, and religious influence block structural change.

In wartime, lack of cohesive long-term strategy worsens every other vulnerability

Glossary

Emigration / Yerida: The phenomenon of Israelis, particularly skilled youth, leaving the country permanently.

Fiscal fragility: Budgetary risk due to debt inflexibility or unforeseen obligations.

Brain drain: Outflow of educated and skilled individuals, weakening innovation and growth.

West Asia: The accurate geopolitical region encompassing Israel and its neighbouring states.

Conclusion

Israel’s economic resilience is crumbling under the combined weight of war, political dysfunction, and a mass exodus of its younger, skilled citizens. While Israel once glittered as a “Start‑Up Nation,” emigration now constitutes a critical vulnerability - draining human capital, shrinking the tax base, and threatening long-term growth. Positioned in a volatile West Asia, surrounded by hostility and isolated; Israel must urgently reform governance, diversify the economy, and reverse migration trends - or risk systemic decline.

Friday, 20 June 2025

RIO - ANALYSIS AT 20 JUNE 2025

1. 📊 Peer Comparison: RIO vs BHP & Vale

Metric / Company RIO Tinto (RIO.L) BHP Group (BHP.L) Vale SA (VALE)
Market Cap ~£110 bn ~£110 bn ~£35 bn
5-Year Stock Return +38 % over five years; ~57 % over ten years
Dividend Yield ~6.4 % (5-year avg) ~6.35 % ~7.6 %
P/E Ratio ~11.5× current; ~10× average ~12.1× current; ~13.3× FY23
Volatility Relative to RIO Highly correlated (~0.9 over 3 months) ~1.39× more volatile
Cash Flow & Debt Strong cash flow and lower net debt More debt but higher revenue

Key Takeaways:

  • RIO is competitively valued: Similar yield and P/E to BHP, with lower volatility than Vale.
  • Over the past decade, RIO has outperformed BHP, especially in total return.
  • Vale, while cheaper with a higher yield, carries greater volatility.

2. 📈 Historical Performance Under Macro Shifts

  • Similarity with peers: RIO’s stock trends closely mirror BHP and Vale, with a correlation of ~0.9.
  • Best performance periods:
    • 2016–2021: Commodity supercycle rebound drove RIO ~+90%.
    • During inflationary spikes: Mining equities tend to benefit, especially when rates are low and growth is steady.

Visual Summary (imagine this charted):

  • X-axis: 2014–2025
  • Y-axis: Indexed (100 = 2014 start)
  • Plots: RIO, BHP, Vale
  • Vertical bars marking:
    • 2020–21 QE-inflation rebound (all three up 50–90%)
    • 2024 industrial slowdown (drop of 10–20%)

3. 🔍 What to Watch (Macro vs Company)

  • Commodity Prices: Iron ore, copper, aluminium — positive moves support RIO.
  • Chinese industrial signals: Slowdowns weaken miners.
  • Global M&A & consolidation: Activity may lift market sentiment.
  • Structural moves: United-listing debate (ASX/LSE) may impact investor demand.

✅ Bottom line

  • RIO is competitive: Similar valuation to BHP, less volatile than Vale, with consistently strong dividend income and historical outperformance.
  • Shares highly correlated with peers: It moves in sync with industry-wide shifts.
  • Macro factors matter most: Commodity prices and Chinese demand are the main drivers.
  • Outlook: If the Fed cuts rates and inflation remains modest, RIO is well placed to rebound; but a significant global slowdown would hit miners across the board.

Monday, 9 June 2025

AI CAREERS

9 June 2025

 AI Careers

(Salary ranges, career paths - to be added)


1.    Job Title: AI Prompt Engineer

Overview:
As an AI Prompt Engineer, you will design, test, and refine prompts to improve the performance of AI language models. This role sits at the intersection of software engineering, linguistics, and user experience.

Key Responsibilities:

  • Craft and iterate on high-quality prompts for AI models.
  • Analyse model outputs to refine instructions.
  • Collaborate with developers and product teams to implement prompt-based solutions.

Required Skills:

  • Strong communication and analytical thinking.
  • Familiarity with LLM behaviour (e.g., GPT-4, Claude).
  • Basic programming knowledge (e.g., Python, APIs).

 

2.    Job Title: AI Developer Advocate

Overview:
The AI Developer Advocate bridges the gap between AI tool creators and the developer community. You’ll help others build smarter tools with AI by writing content, hosting tutorials, and gathering feedback.

Key Responsibilities:

  • Educate developers on how to integrate AI tools.
  • Create demos, sample code, and blog posts.
  • Represent the company at meetups and conferences.

Required Skills:

  • Strong public speaking and writing skills.
  • Deep understanding of developer workflows.
  • Experience with modern AI libraries and APIs.


 

3.    Job Title: AI Integration Engineer

Overview:
This role focuses on embedding AI tools into existing business systems. As an AI Integration Engineer, you’ll ensure smooth, secure, and scalable implementation of AI functionalities in real-world applications.

Key Responsibilities:

  • Integrate APIs from AI providers into enterprise apps.
  • Monitor performance and error handling.
  • Collaborate with cross-functional teams to improve system architecture.

Required Skills:

  • Backend software development (Python, Java, Node.js).
  • Understanding of API protocols and data handling.
  • Cloud deployment and version control systems.


 

4.    Job Title: AI Solutions Designer

Overview:
As an AI Solutions Designer, you’ll map business problems to AI use cases and design human-in-the-loop workflows. You combine technical acumen with strategic thinking.

Key Responsibilities:

  • Work with clients to scope AI projects.
  • Design system architecture and user journeys.
  • Define evaluation metrics and testing scenarios.

Required Skills:

  • UX/UI awareness.
  • Strategic consulting or product design experience.
  • High-level understanding of AI capabilities.


 

5.    Job Title: AI Test & QA Analyst

Overview:
This role ensures AI tools work reliably and ethically. You'll test systems for accuracy, fairness, and performance across different scenarios.

Key Responsibilities:

  • Test prompt reliability and LLM outputs.
  • Conduct edge-case scenario analysis.
  • Build test suites and simulate user inputs.

Required Skills:

  • QA methodologies.
  • Familiarity with prompt tuning and LLM limits.
  • Documentation and reporting skills.


 

6.    Job Title: AI Technical Writer

Overview:
You translate complex AI systems into clear, useful documentation. You’ll work alongside developers and product teams to produce user guides, API docs, and onboarding material.

Key Responsibilities:

  • Write and maintain technical documentation.
  • Organise help centres and chatbot documentation.
  • Ensure clarity, consistency, and accuracy.

Required Skills:

  • Strong writing and editing skills.
  • Technical background or ability to grasp complex systems.
  • Familiarity with markdown, API tooling, and diagrams.
 

Update

Updated Job Descriptions for Emerging AI Roles in 2025

(Post-Prompt Engineering Era - prompt engineering was a stepping Stone in to AI. A couple of years ago, but now anyone who can type is expected to be able to write prompts, it's been operationalized, has become just a part of our daily lives, whether you are an office worker or an individual)


7. Job Title: AI Trainer

Overview:

An AI Trainer develops, tests and refines AI behaviour, ensuring natural, useful, and contextually appropriate responses in conversation-based systems. You’ll play a critical role in improving chatbot understanding, tone, and alignment with user intent.

Key Responsibilities:

Design realistic and varied user interaction scenarios.

Fine-tune chatbot behaviour based on user feedback and performance logs.

Create annotated datasets to improve model alignment.

Collaborate with data scientists and NLP engineers to deploy updated models.


Required Skills:

Linguistic awareness and UX sensitivity.

Familiarity with AI training pipelines and prompt tuning.

Ability to detect bias, hallucinations, or misalignment in model outputs.


Ideal Background:

Former content creators, UX writers, linguists, or prompt engineers transitioning to model behaviour design.



---

8. Job Title: AI Data Specialist

Overview:

The AI Data Specialist ensures AI models are trained on clean, relevant, and well-structured data. You will be responsible for preparing datasets, enforcing data governance, and continuously auditing data pipelines for quality.

Key Responsibilities:

Clean and structure large datasets for model consumption.

Detect anomalies, duplicates, or corrupted entries in training sets.

Collaborate with AI trainers and engineers to ensure data quality and relevance.

Maintain documentation and lineage tracking for data assets.

Required Skills:

Experience with SQL, Python (Pandas), and data labelling tools.

Understanding of machine learning model data needs.

Strong attention to detail, with an eye for statistical anomalies.


Ideal Background:

Data analysts or engineers pivoting into AI infrastructure support.


9. Job Title: AI Security Specialist

Overview:

As an AI Security Specialist, you’ll safeguard AI systems from evolving threats such as prompt injection, data poisoning, and adversarial attacks. You will work at the cutting edge of cybersecurity and machine learning.

Key Responsibilities:

Conduct vulnerability assessments on AI systems.

Design defences against prompt manipulation and misuse.

Ensure safe deployment of models within enterprise environments.

Monitor for suspicious access, misuse patterns, and insider threats.


Required Skills:

Strong grounding in cybersecurity principles and threat modelling.

Familiarity with LLM architecture, sandboxing, and red teaming techniques.

Knowledge of privacy-preserving AI techniques (e.g. differential privacy).


Ideal Background:

Cybersecurity professionals with interest in emerging AI threats; or ML engineers upskilling in security.