1. INTRODUCTION — TRUST, ORDER, AND THE SOCIAL CONTRACT
We exchange a measure of personal sovereignty for the benefits of belonging to a group.
This is the foundation of the social contract.
But Western democracies are are showing growing signs of disorder.
The Fourth Turning is deepening.
Elites know that conditions are worsening, public confidence in our free press and institutions is eroding, the torque on our freedoms is tightening, the governors surely realise that societies are beginning to fracture internally.
When the captain no longer trusts the crew, discipline replaces dialogue - the beatings begin. This is control disguised as safety and protection.
2. PUBLIC ORDER AND THE COMING STRAIN
We already see the signs:
• declining trust
• weaker institutions
• social fragmentation
• rising protests and disorder
• a muzzled press
A state that fears its own peoples will always reach for surveillance, coercion, and centralised authority.
But these measures worsen the breach rather than repair it.
At issue is the part played by technology and threats to security, but the challenge is to governance rooted in trust.
3. FOUNDATIONS OF ORDER
These brief videos explain the values and ideas that built the Western political tradition.
They clarify what we are in danger of losing.
• John Locke
https://youtu.be/bZiWZJgJT7I?si=wHamFS3YldsmFVUv
• Thomas Hobbes
https://youtu.be/9i4jb5XBX5s?si=cIj9qTOX7GYhB-kP
• David Hume
https://youtu.be/HS52H_CqZLE?si=ldg65NRnNZ4RvKqS
• Jean-Jacques Rousseau
https://youtu.be/81KfDXTTtXE?si=nopDVzIxcbXLrvyD
These thinkers frame the tension between liberty, authority, and civil peace.
Their ideas matter now more than at any time in the past half-century.
4. WHERE THE CRISIS BEGINS — THE ECONOMIC TRIGGER
The political trouble begins in the economy.
Triffin’s Dilemma explains the structural flaw at the heart of the dollar system:
• the world demands dollars for trade
• the world demands dollars as a store of value
• to facilitate demand the United States must supply the world with dollars
• supplying them means expanding (fiat) money and credit
• expanding money destroys confidence in the dollar itself
There are now far more paper promises than real assets backing those promises.
Confidence weakens with each new expansion.
• Triffin’s Dilemma
https://youtu.be/p9v6ixgjK3o?si=OZ3pCbReQOCyWshU
5. THE U.S. RESPONSE — PRINT, RAISE RATES, AND FIGHT
My expectation, from the history of previous Empires, is simple:
The United States will do three things to preserve the exorbitant privilege of the dollar:
• print money
• raise interest rates
• and, finally, go to war to defend its position
Each step carries its own contradictions.
Raising interest rates crushes the private sector.
Businesses fail.
Unemployment rises.
People rebel.
Think of the Jarrow March - economic desperation becomes political energy.
Yet printing money fuels more inflation, undermining living standards and savings.
The result is a split reality:
• deflation in the private sector
• inflation in the public sector
This is the hallmark of late-stage monetary regimes.
6. CONCLUSION — THE CHOICE AHEAD
A society built on trust moves ahead lightly and confidently.... nimbly, if you prefer.
A society ruled by fear and coercion becomes rigid and resentful.... lifeless.
As disorder grows, the question is no longer about surveillance, money, or ideology.
It is whether the social contract can be renewed ... or whether it will continue to be outdated by new systems and justifications of control.
