UKRAINE NEEDS AN EVACUATION PLAN

19 March 2024

https://youtu.be/DErVuxe24KI?si=5SZY-ufeAEiXHrAa 

Mercouris reminds us that although most western commentators continue to insist on a western victory, this isn't likely, and though wars of attrition might look like frozen conflicts so do arm wrestles until there is a sudden collapse, as in Saigon and Kabul, and so it would be best to plan for the unexpected.

It looks like the R plan is to re-integrate formerly Russian lands, ie trace West of the Dniepro from the current border through Kiev, down to Kherson and round to Odessa and Transnistria.

So think about the movements of people in such an event, given how difficult movement will become, with non-existant air links and vulnerabilities by rail.

Evacuate in an orderly fashion all Westerners and consider the effect of 10 million refugees storming the EU and heading across the channel.

He doesn't suggest this, but is this recent talk of conscription in the UK press less about fighting the Russian hordes and more about having sufficient forces at home to preserve some semblance of law and order, and public health in the event of ...?

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WILL THE REAL BRIGITTE MACRON PLEASE STAND UP

18 March 2024

The story around Emmanuel Macron's married life is shrouded. There is some doubt over the true identity of his wife, Brigitte. A meticoulously detailed investigation (or hoax?) has been conducted. The investigation explores discrepancies in biographies and public records.

https://youtu.be/nuB5jR5HJko?si=IIbUIPsqwHQ0jetX

Inputs were photos of Brigitte, her older brother Jean-Michel. At different stages in her life - school, first communion, marriage, today. Also library and class records, interviews and personal testimonies.

The method involved sifting through these archives, libraries, and conducting interviews. Central to the method was a software tool, the world's number one facial recognition software, which the investigator tested beforehand to establish confidence limits ie percentage accuracy of results.

The report contrasts public narratives with findings from the inputs of private records and interviews, highlighting discrepancies that raise questions about the true identity of Brigitte Macron. The results found no match between Brigitte before her marriage with at and after, with more than 95% confidence, but a reasonable chance - 50 to 55% - match between school photos of her brother and photos of Brigitte at "her" marriage.

(Note that comparisons adult-adult will be more reliable than comparisons of child-adult.

Note also that the back-testing was done with ordinary people as well as photos of persons who had suffered accidents or had cosmetic surgery - the only time it failed was Michael Jackson. Ha ha.)

This has got to be an elaborate hoax I would have thought. The suggestion is that Emmanuel married the brother of his fiancée, but surely any blood test would establish whether Brigitte is XX or XY.

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IR HEROES: JOHN J MEARSHEIMER

16 March 2024

**1. Introduction**

John Mearsheimer is an American political scientist and international relations scholar. He is best known for his work on offensive realism, a theory of international politics that emphasizes the role of states pursuing power to ensure their survival in an anarchic world system.

2. Academic Background

Mearsheimer's academic journey began with a Bachelor's degree from the United States Military Academy at West Point, followed by a Master's in International Relations from the University of Southern California. He furthered his education with a PhD in Political Science from Cornell University. His career includes teaching at the University of Chicago, where he has been a significant figure in the field of international relations.

3. Theoretical Contributions

Mearsheimer has made substantial contributions to the field of international relations, particularly through his development of offensive realism. This theory suggests that great powers are inherently aggressive due to the anarchy of the international system, leading them to seek hegemony for security reasons. His work challenges more optimistic views of international politics, like liberal theories of peace

4. Key Publications and Articles

4.1. "The Tragedy of Great Power Politics"

This book is central to Mearsheimer's theory of offensive realism. He argues that the anarchic nature of the international system compels great powers to seek dominance or hegemony as a means of securing their survival. Mearsheimer posits that this inevitable quest for power leads to conflicts and wars, making the international system inherently tragic.

4.2. "Conventional Deterrence"

In this work, Mearsheimer explores the concept of deterrence, specifically how the threat of conventional military force can prevent adversaries from taking aggressive actions. He analyzes historical conflicts to understand the conditions under which deterrence succeeds or fails, offering insights into the strategies that states can employ to maintain peace.

4.3. "The Israel Lobby and U.S. Foreign Policy" (Co-authored with Stephen M. Walt)

This book and article examine the impact of the Israel lobby on U.S. foreign policy, arguing that the lobby has managed to bend U.S. foreign policy in a direction that is neither in the United States' nor Israel's long-term interests. Mearsheimer and Walt suggest that this undue influence has led to flawed policy decisions in the Middle East, contributing to regional instability.

4.4. "Why the Ukraine Crisis Is the West’s Fault"

Through this article, Mearsheimer addresses the root causes of the Ukraine crisis, challenging the dominant narrative in the West. He argues that the expansion of NATO and the European Union's eastward expansion were perceived as threats by Russia, prompting it to act defensively in Ukraine. Mearsheimer criticizes Western policy for failing to consider Russia's security concerns, contributing to the escalation of the conflict.

4.5. "Lying in International Politics"

In this article, Mearsheimer delves into the prevalence of deception in international relations. He categorizes lies that states tell each other and examines the reasons and conditions under which leaders find it necessary to lie. This work contributes to understanding the complexities of diplomacy and the ethical dilemmas in international politics.

4.6. "The False Promise of International Institutions"

Mearsheimer critiques the liberal institutionalist perspective that international institutions and norms can significantly promote peace. He argues that in the anarchic international system, where no central authority exists, institutions cannot effectively enforce cooperation or prevent conflict among sovereign states.

5. Criticism and Debate

Mearsheimer's ideas, particularly his views on offensive realism and the inherent aggressiveness of states, have attracted both support and criticism. Critics argue that his theory underestimates the role of diplomacy, international institutions, and economic interdependence in maintaining peace. Despite this, his work remains influential and a staple in the study of international relations.

6. Personal Life

Details of Mearsheimer's personal life, including his experiences and interests outside of academia, provide insight into the individual behind the theories. He has shared reflections on his service in the U.S. Air Force and its impact on his views on war and peace.

Links Section

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UNDERSTANDING SOME DEEPER ISSUES OF THE CONFLICT IN THE M.E.

16 March 2024

Two points today. One is to explain the unfathomable depths of cruelty in this war of religion, this conflict, which by the way surpasses the treatment received by the Dews at the hands of the Germans in the last war, although not numerically. 

The other is to understand why the American administration is a supporter and bystander, but has no agency, is impotent, faced with this butchery, which contravenes all its values.

1. A framework for understanding this conflict: psychological theories of the origins of identity, the traumas, in-group vs. out-group dynamics, and narrative construction. 

Pretty much everyone the world over is completely horrified at the way the Dews in Israil are slaughtering the Mooslims, all with the support, moral amd material, of the American foreign policy class.

Most of those who are horrified are also jaw-droppingly surprised at how this can be happening and be allowed to continue, in full view of the entire world community, with noone taking any effective action to stop the  butchering the Palacetinian Mooslims. Thousands upon thousands of old iron one-ton bombs, flown into Israel from America, loaded into bomber aircraft, flown over to the Gaza strip, dropped indiscriminately on residential areas in the most densely populated cities and refugee camps in the world. Thousands of women and children, blown apart - the carnage!

Looking at this completely animalistic behaviour, where does this level of hate come from? It can only be from deep within the bowels of the Dewish Israili soul, a hate passed down the generations, a hate located deep deep in the collective unconscious.

This must be the piece of the puzzle we are missing. We could see this as a fratricide, a blood fued, a fight to the death between brothers in the same Semite family, vengeance killing after traumatising vengeance killing, from the time of Abraham (Ibrahim), Sarah, Haggar, Isaac and Ismail.

This would help to understanding the depravity and pure evil of the parties to this conflict.

2. Who controls Washington controls the World

Let us also recall that after the war two systems of world governance were set up: the UN with international law agreed between equal nation-states; and the American Order, aka Liberal International Order, where America runs its empire from The White House and Pentagon. The latter winning out.

This means that the current ruling institutions - America's Dept.s of State, Commerce and its Treasury; the IMF and World Bank; America's Dept of Defense including the Pentagon, CIA and NSA; America's alliances and NATO; the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) and the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) - all these institutions are pivotal in shaping the American global order through its diplomatic, economic and military strategies, policies and operations.

It is these American institutions and their rules, actioned by Congress, driven by the interests and money from the lobbies, that control the flows of money and the behaviours of governments worldwide. 

Which group has centralised power putting itself in a position to run these institutions, controlling governance and money flows? A tiny handful of the 14 million people who are at the core of "American" influence and our troubles. The elected officials and administration are effectively impotent in the face to this lobby.

Was it ever as it used to be? Could it be again?

3. License to kill

Thus the protection and ready support by the Americans for Israil's daily slaughter of its brothers in Palestine. 

Thus the support of countries outside The West for a rules-based Order run from the  UN.

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SEMITES FIGHTING

15 March 2024

Sitting in a coffee bar myself now. 

The irony is. Starbucks is supposedly every dollar you spend buys a bullet to put in a Palestinian's head.*

As you may know, Due and Palestinian have the same father, they are semites, they are brothers. Abraham (Ibrahim) is their father. He had two sons, from his two wives. Sarah, who was too old to have children, so he married Hajjar, a second wife.

Sarah did conceive! A little boy, Isaac. And so too did Hajar, another boy, Ismail.

Anyway, I am sitting in this café, listening to guitar music on the loudspeakers, it must be the oud, from the Middle East 

Then. Shazam reveals it is

https://letriojoubran.com/

A Palestinian trio. Ha ha, the irony is not lost. Even they are fighting over coffee shops!!

Maybe ... on the other hand, this is Ramadam and music of Middle Eastern origin is playing in all the stores, much like at Christmas you get wall-to-wall carols.

PS Palestinians have a good brain, every bit as good as their brother's ... as you would expect.

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A ROMANTIC PERSON

15 March 2024

A ROMANTIC MAN IS

A romantic man often embodies characteristics and behaviours that are attentive, thoughtful, and expressive, aimed at making their partner feel loved, valued, and special. Here are some key traits:

1. Thoughtfulness He remembers important dates, preferences, and small details about his partner, demonstrating that he listens and values their interests and needs.

2. Expressiveness He's not shy about sharing his feelings, whether through words, actions, or gestures, letting his partner know they are loved and appreciated.

3. Creativity A romantic man often thinks outside the box to surprise his partner with unique and personalised gestures, showing effort and thought in making moments special.

4. Attentiveness He pays attention to his partner's moods and needs, offering support, understanding, and presence when needed.

5. Generosity This isn't just about gifts or material things but also about being generous with his time, attention, and affection.

6. Passion He demonstrates a strong emotional connection and desire for his partner, not just physically but in all aspects of the relationship.

7. Gestures of Love From small acts like leaving love notes or sending "thinking of you" messages to grand gestures like surprise getaways or elaborate date nights, he knows how to make his partner feel special.

8. Respect Fundamental to any romantic behaviour is a deep respect for his partner’s feelings, autonomy, and individuality, always prioritising their comfort and consent.

9. Commitment He shows commitment to the relationship, working to build a strong bond and facing challenges together, ensuring his partner feels secure and valued.

10. Empathy Understanding and empathis2ing with his partner's feelings, he navigates the relationship with kindness and compassion.

A romantic man is, essentially, someone who puts in the effort to ensure his actions and words make his partner feel cherished and important.

A ROMANTIC WOMAN IS

A romantic woman embodies traits and behaviours that reflect her deep appreciation for love and relationships, focusing on nurturing a strong emotional connection with her partner. Here are some characteristics that are often associated with being romantic:

1. Expressive Affection She freely expresses her love and affection through words, gestures, and actions, making her partner feel valued and adored.

2. Thoughtfulness Paying attention to the little things that matter to her partner, she remembers important dates, preferences, and nuances, making gestures that show she cares and understands.

3. Creativity She comes up with unique and personalised ways to show love, whether through handmade gifts, special dates, or surprises that add excitement and depth to the relationship.

4. Empathy Demonstrating a deep understanding of her partner’s feelings and needs, she is supportive and compassionate, always ready to listen and provide comfort.

5. Generosity Beyond material gifts, she is generous with her time, attention, and emotional support, ensuring her partner feels heard, seen, and supported.

6. Passion She maintains a strong emotional and physical connection, showing desire and attraction towards her partner in a way that keeps the relationship vibrant.

7. Commitment Displaying dedication to the relationship, she works towards building a strong, lasting bond and faces challenges together with a positive, solution-focused approach.

8. Adventurousness Willing to try new things and share experiences together, she keeps the relationship lively and engaging, fostering a sense of partnership and shared growth.

9. Respect At the heart of her romantic actions is a deep respect for her partner’s individuality, choices, and boundaries, promoting a healthy, balanced relationship.

10. Communication She values open and honest communication, sharing her feelings, desires, and concerns in a way that fosters trust and understanding.

A romantic woman, in essence, places importance on making her partner feel cherished, fostering a loving and supportive environment where the relationship can flourish.

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MACRON STOP STRUTTING START WORKING

15 March 2024

OP-ED

The televised interview with Macron that put the world into fear and trembling turned out to be as far as I read it a damp squib - he was originally pitching for deployment of French combattants on Ukrainiansoi, but at his press conference he rowed back on this.

What's important to notice is that it was his opening shot in his election campaign with elections in 3 months 

He was supposed to be advocating French boots on Ukrainian soil, but in fact he said that this was not a good idea and France would never be the first to deploy its troops 

Having said that his belief is that a victory by Russia would put Europe's credibility and security at risk and this was the point of his speech 

He said that Russia is an existential threat to France and it must be ready for combat.

I strongly believe that if you have nothing to say it is best to say nothing and he would have done well to focus on commerce and a domestic agenda and forget about international relations 

IR, International Relations, France is a middleweight and has been kicked out of West Africa, and was subsequently replaced by Russia. France is fearful of further undignified loss of standing.

Playing chicken with a nuclear super power can only result in mockery, humiliation, further loss of respect.

Best to shut up Manny, stop strutting the intl stage, start working for the people of France.

SUMMARY OF ARTICLE

1. Macron's Televised Clarification

French President Emmanuel Macron addressed the nation regarding France's stance on the Ukraine conflict, emphasizing peace and caution against direct military engagement with Russia, despite the increasing threat.

2. Strategic Ambiguity and Public Concern

Macron navigated the complex issue of military support for Ukraine, clarifying France's position against initiating conflict. His remarks come amid public and international debate, reflected by a significant opposition in public opinion to sending combat troops, as shown by recent polls.

3. The European Elections and Macron's Stance

Approaching the European elections, Macron's interview serves not only as a statement on Ukraine but also as a strategic move within his political campaign, marking his stance on European security and defense.

4. The Balance of Power and European Security

Macron argued that a Russian victory in Ukraine would severely undermine European security and France's global standing, advocating for preparedness to respond to Russian escalations without crossing into offensive military action.

5. The Domestic and International Response

The French president's comments have stirred a variety of responses both domestically and among European allies, Certainly, here's a corrected version with properly numbered headings, adhering to the request:

1. Macron's Televised Clarification

In a significant televised interview, French President Emmanuel Macron communicated directly with the nation on France’s position regarding the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. In contrast. It was anticipated he would press for deoyment of French troops or NATO troops in Ukraine. But in his interview, he stressed the importance of maintaining peace and avoiding direct military confrontation with Russia, despite acknowledging the escalating threats.

2. Strategic Ambiguity and Public Concern

Macron addressed the delicate balance of providing support to Ukraine while avoiding the initiation of military actions. His comments aimed to clarify France’s stance amidst domestic and international debates, highlighted by a notable public opposition to deploying combat troops, as indicated by recent polling data.

3. The European Elections and Macron's Stance

With the European elections on the horizon, Macron’s interview not only clarified France's foreign policy stance but also strategically positioned him within the political landscape, emphasizing the importance of European security and France’s role in it.

4. The Balance of Power and European Security

The French President made a compelling argument on the consequences of a potential Russian victory in Ukraine, underlining the threat it poses to European security and France’s standing on the global stage. He advocated for a state of readiness to counter Russian advances, while firmly opposing any offensive military engagement.

5. The Domestic and International Response

Macron’s remarks have ignited varied reactions both within France and across the European Union. The intricacies of supporting Ukraine, while managing geopolitical repercussions and maintaining EU unity, present a complex challenge as highlighted by Macron’s diplomatic navigation and the broader European response.

This summary reflects Macron's nuanced approach to the Ukraine crisis, focusing on peace, strategic support, and the broader implications for European security and political dynamics ahead of the upcoming elections.

ARTICLE

Le président de la République s’est adressé aux Français ce jeudi 14 mars au soir, lors d’un entretien télévisé aux JT de TF1 et de France 2. Voici ce qu’il faut retenir de son interview sur la guerre en Ukraine.

Emmanuel Macron lors d'une interview à l'Élysée le 14 mars 2024© Ludovic MARIN / AFP

Emmanuel Macron s’est expliqué pendant presque quarante minutes devant les Français sur les enjeux du soutien à l'Ukraine, après ses propos controversés sur le possible envoi de militaires occidentaux, face à une Russie de plus en plus "menaçante" selon lui en Europe.

À trois mois des élections européennes, son entretien aux "20H" de TF1 et France 2 a, par ailleurs, marqué son entrée dans la campagne, après le premier meeting de son camp dimanche à Lille.

La France va-t-elle envoyer des troupes en Ukraine?

Emmanuel Macron a affirmé jeudi 14 mars que l'Europe devait être "prête à répondre" à une "escalade" menée selon lui par la Russie, mais sans "jamais" prendre "l'initiative" du combat militaire face à cette puissance nucléaire.

"Jamais, nous ne mènerons d'offensive, jamais, nous ne prendrons l'initiative. La France est une force de paix", a déclaré le chef de l'État aux journaux télévisés de 20H de TF1 et France 2.

Il entendait ainsi rassurer après avoir semé le trouble, dans l'opinion et chez les autres alliés de Kiev, en jugeant fin février qu'il ne fallait pas exclure l'envoi, à l'avenir, de militaires occidentaux en Ukraine.

Cette nouvelle posture du président, qui dénonce un "durcissement" de Moscou et tente d'imposer son leadership dans l'aide à l'armée ukrainienne, a été critiquée par de nombreux homologues européens et par l'ensemble de ses opposants français.

Selon un sondage Elabe pour La Tribune, l'opinion n'est pas en reste: 79% des personnes interrogées s'opposent à l'envoi de troupes combattantes au sol et même 47% à celui de formateurs. S'adressant directement aux Français par cette interview, Emmanuel Macron a toutefois assumé une fois de plus sa position.

Pourquoi la Russie ne doit-elle pas gagner?

"Si la Russie venait à gagner", "nous n'aurons plus de sécurité" et la "crédibilité de l'Europe sera réduite à zéro", a-t-il estimé. "Nous avons un objectif: la Russie ne peut pas et ne doit pas gagner cette guerre", qui est "existentielle pour notre Europe et pour la France", a-t-il insisté.

En conséquence, il a tenté de faire de la pédagogie sur cette "ambiguïté stratégique" qu'il défend face au président russe Vladimir Poutine.

La France doit être “prête”

"Nous avons mis trop de limites, si je puis dire, dans notre vocabulaire", a expliqué Emmanuel Macron, rappelant que les Occidentaux avaient dit, après l'invasion russe de l'Ukraine il y a deux ans, qu'ils n'enverraient "jamais" de chars ou de missiles de moyenne portée à Kiev, avant de franchir ces lignes rouges face à l'évolution du conflit.

"Si la situation devait se dégrader, nous devons être prêts et nous serons prêts", a-t-il martelé. "Il y a une escalade de la part de la Russie" et "nous devons dire que nous sommes prêts à répondre".

Ceux qui posent des limites sont “faibles”

Il a donc affirmé que ceux qui posent "des limites" à leur soutien à l'Ukraine, face à un Vladimir Poutine qui a lui "franchi toutes les limites", décident "d'être faibles" et "ne font pas le choix de la paix mais font le choix de la défaite".

Il a précisé viser à la fois ceux qui, cette semaine au Parlement français, se sont abstenus (le Rassemblement national) ou ont voté contre (La France insoumise et les communistes) l'accord bilatéral de sécurité avec l'Ukraine. Mais aussi ceux qui, ailleurs en Europe, invoquent ces limites.

Une mise au point qui risque d'être fraîchement accueillie vendredi à Berlin, où le président français se rend pour tenter d'apaiser les tensions avec le chancelier allemand Olaf Scholz, décuplées ces dernières semaines autour de cette question. Les deux dirigeants vont se voir en tête-à-tête, avant un sommet à trois incluant aussi le Premier ministre polonais Donald Tusk.

Menace nucléaire?

À moins de trois mois des élections européennes, cet entretien marque aussi de facto son entrée en campagne, après le premier meeting de son camp samedi à Lille. Il a pris la parole dans la foulée du premier grand débat des européennes, sur Public Sénat, au cours duquel ses opposants ont dénoncé sa position "irresponsable".

Le camp présidentiel entend notamment axer sa campagne sur le soutien à l'Ukraine, accusant le RN, largement en tête dans les sondages, et LFI d'entretenir des positions prorusses.

Deux ans après le début de l'offensive russe, son impact sur les économies européennes et une certaine lassitude des opinions se font aussi sentir. Vladimir Poutine alimente lui-même ce sentiment en agitant en permanence la menace d'un conflit nucléaire.

"Nous devons nous sentir particulièrement protégés parce que nous sommes justement cette puissance dotée" de la bombe atomique, a dit Emmanuel Macron. "Nous sommes prêts. Nous avons une doctrine qui est établie", a-t-il ajouté, tout en évoquant la "responsabilité" française de "ne jamais être dans l'escalade".

Pourquoi aider les Ukrainiens?

Enfin, le président de la République a répondu aux questions des internautes sur la guerre en Ukraine sur X (Twitter). Dans une courte vidéo de deux minutes, il apporte des réponses à la question: pourquoi aider l’Ukraine?

“Aider l’Ukraine, c’est d’abord aider un pays qui est attaqué dans ses frontières, un pays qui est européen. Un pays dont la souveraineté est remise en cause, dont la sécurité est menacée. Aider l’Ukraine, c’est aussi s’occuper de notre sécurité”.

Emmanuel Macron poursuit: “La Russie est devenue une puissance qui veut s’étendre, et elle ne s’arrêtera pas là. Si on laisse l’Ukraine perdre, alors, à coup sûr, la Russie menacera la Moldavie, la Roumanie, la Pologne… il n’y a pas de sécurité européenne possible”.

Enfin, pour le président, aider l’Ukraine est aussi “un devoir” et "notre intérêt à court terme".

“Aider l’Ukraine est nécessaire, pour aujourd’hui et encore plus pour demain. Pour vous convaincre totalement, si nous arrêtions d’aider l’Ukraine, elle n’a aucune chance de gagner la guerre”, conclut-il.

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WINES OF BALI

16 March 2024

Wine from Bali, grapes grown on the slopes of the hills.

In Bordeaux, the soil is gravel, limestone, and clay. Gravel soils of the Left Bank area are well-draining and keep the heat, helping to ripen the Cabernet Sauvignon grapes.

Limestone and clay soils of the Right Bank benefit Merlot and Cabernet Franc grape varietiess as they provide moisture and cooler conditions.

I know nothing about the soil types in Bali, but the wine I tasted is surpringly good, so the soils must be good.

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