RADICAL UNCERTAINTY

3 August 2024

ECONOMICS BACK IN THE DRIVING SEAT

Book review: Lord Mervyn King, former Governor of the Bank of England

"Radical Uncertainty: Decision Making Beyond the Numbers"

“Hope for the best but prepare for the worst”

Economics is about helping people make better decisions in the real world for themselves, for their businesses, for government, but what has happened over the last few decades as the discipline of economics has matured is that it has withdrawn into itself, rather losing contact with the real world and all its uncertainties. It has become dominated by model-makers and group think – problem being, the models are not a literal description of the real world, the real world it far more complex meaning we should be far less certain of our ability to manage change in it; and groupthink works by pressuring dissenters to accept the majority view*.

The world has become such a complex place with the result that the politicians have a tendency to outsource the problem to experts who, because they rely on their models, which can be faulty and inevitably do not include all available information, inevitably get it wrong. 

The result is a lack of confidence and cynicism on the part of the electorate towards the plans of their once- omnipotent leaders. Eg covid, Brexit, climate change – the experts delivered us advice based on false argument.

What governments (and ourselves) should do is to pay off the debt, live within our means and improve our productivity. The profligate behaviour of the government has ruined the country and by its bad example, led the people astray. QE was only ever intended to deal with one-off emergencies such as war or a pandemic, but it became part of the national economic framework because of the slow growth of economies. 

This created the problem that those who started with assets did well out of it, but those who had none like the young, did not. Plus now we have burdened our young people with a terrible national debt that they will have to pay off. And we make them borrow to pay for their education on which the future prosperity of the country is based. With the result that they are delaying forming a family because of this absence of funds and the uncertainty. The situation is exacerbated by migration, justified on demographic and liberal grounds, into Europe from Africa, setting up employment and infrastructure pressures, as well as pressures on the home culture, provoking a citizens' revolt and losing the awareness of all citizens belonging to one country or projecting one unified face to the world.

Demographics means more resources are needed by the state, in the form of taxes, to care for the elderly and integrate substantial immigrant population, while at the same time, fewer young people suggests less resources needed for education on which future prosperity is based. 

How are all these demands on the state to be paid for? You cannot increase the marginal tax rate on the wealthy without disincentivising wealth creation, yet general tax increases or austerity would not be popular at the urns. The problem today is that growing expectations of the people have, over time, meant that the state has grown larger and larger, until now that its part in overall economy is so large, it is very difficult to pay for the demands.

There are so many policy areas that need really radical change and yet our leaders, who may be  honest and intelligent, have the greatest difficulty in proposing a radical level of change to the electorate. The fundamental problem here is that if you increase investment, you must decrease consumption - consumption by individuals as well as by government.

Plus there is the question of unfunded liabilities such as future pension payments not backed from the social security fund - in other words commitment outside the national debt that will fall due and need to be paid in the future. Unfunded liabilities are not something people understand, but if this were explained, they would quite probably be prepared to tackle the problem. This requires politicians who are honest enough to explain and discuss this with the people in order to get the electorate behind the radical thinking needed to find a solution. The trouble is that this won’t work in a democracy where candidates must compete for votes - no one likes bad news, so the subjects that are difficult are skirted, the can is kicked down the road for the next government.

We are looking at a problem here with democracy itself. Imagine if a group of students in China went to see president Xi and said we want more democracy. He might very well reply, well do you want democracy like in America, where 30,000 people in a few swing states decides the composition of the electoral college and the future for everyone? 

Do you want democracy like in the UK where on a low turnout a party that won 14% of the vote got four seats, a party that got 34% of the vote got 64% of the seats? Or democracy like in France, where parties can gang up on the most popular and win the majority of seats? 

Democracies these days are seen by the people as arrangements where leaders game the systems for their own private or party advantage. We need to recognise that we are a fragmented society, two parties do not cover the diversity of interests and views. Moving to a multi-party world, proportional representation, PR, would capture that plurality of views in parliament and assemble a more representative democracy. 

Direct democracy would be a step further, with referendums (in a typical year, Switzerland will hold four referendums) and perhaps voting off your phone, taking the protests off the streets.

This makes it difficult to counter the argument that one strong party making decisions for the long-term isn’t more effective. We don’t deliver anymore, that is the trouble with our system and as they say "bad times make strong leaders" or at the very least require courage and wisdom.

Shouldn’t we be very worried that a group of Western leaders provoke Russia into a war that the people don’t want and the West is losing, or where tens of thousands of mainly women and children are massacred in order to protect an apartheid state, losing support from the “global majority”, or threats of war or disloyal competition with China, Iran, assist in a conflagration in the Middle East?

Surely we have to say to the people that we cannot do everything that you ask and the people will respect that if we are straight with them. Competence is a minimum requirement of our leadership and without explanations, solutions and competent execution, there will be a loss of enthusiasm and particularly amongst the young, who will see a diminished future and want to leave the country for better opportunities elsewhere. 

They’ve had to fund their education and pay their living expenses, they face paying off the debt of their parents and rusk finding their own pension is not covered, and in rhe present where they are supposed to build their own nest, many have acquired skills for which there is less demand and are faced with property prices that are well out of reach. How can the young start a family, the next generation, in those circumstances? 

We need good leadership but we would do well to note that the protest vote, protest movements, do not generate good leaders - we need opportunities that excite people and from the participation of young people in exciting opportunities will flow a new leadership.

Defence of the realm is a problem. Guns or butter? People want butter these days. When people think about defence industries, they think about corruption and waste and inefficient procurement processes, more than they think about the need for defence of the country. The defence industry is not just about defence as such, it is also - and this includes space - about massive innovation and technological advance.  Europe - and this includes the UK - has cut back on spending on the basis of the Peace Dividend and has relied on American supply for its lower unit costs and interoperability. The last World War left us victorious but bankrupt and we have never really accepted the proposition that we should be prepared for war to happen again. The evidence is in the poor support the West has been able to offer Ukraine. Defense budgets need to be increased and the European defence industry re-organised for home independence, shared standards and volume production.

Just consider the 1930s as a time when people could see the growing threat from Germany but were unwilling to commit to the trenches. There was the 1933 pledge. There was the amazing story of Britain’s strength of will in rebuilding its Air Force and so perhaps there was something to be said for Chamberlain giving us time to rebuild. You can see that defence in those circumstances meant going without and rationing in other words a cut back in consumption in favour of rearmament. As in Finland today. 

Also worthy of note that young people are looking for a cause and they found it in the defence of the country at that time and yet today the causes they find are often not very salutary. Offer young people a wholesome cause and they will participate, and a competent leadership will flow from this. But they need something to believe in.

The trouble is that the world is a complex place and we are often in situations without a precedent - at least not in our lifetime - and yet we think that we can model all this and optimise a solution in a spreadsheet and come up with a forecast and an answer. We think we can optimise, we think we can identify and mitigate all the risks and achieve our objectives, but rational decision-making needs a certain humility and admission that we do not know it all because the future is unknowable and that rather than pretending we can optimise, we should build resilience for the unknown, find solutions that are good enough, solutions that will avoid the worst while trying to make things better, rather than the best. 

The title of the book (summarised here and also turned aside with my own personal comment) sums up this dilemma between the need for radical change in times of maximum uncertainty. We should not let the best be the enemy of the good, we should take advice from good people and hope to do our best. "Hope for the best but prepare for the worst". So life is very complicated and it is critical to have the right people in place, able to make the right judgements and not simply to rely on models and spreadsheets and data and optimising on scenarios predicted by the system or “the experts”.

Central banks are having a tough time at the moment having made major policy mistakes. Covid meant shutting down the supply side of the economy and it was not a good idea to then print a heap of money, floor interest rates and boost demand. The result was inflation. Central banks eventually responded by raising interests and this seems to be working bringing inflation back towards target, allowing interest rates to slacken now in what could possibly be a soft landing.

As to climate change, if we cannot get covid right, then how can we possibly be expected to model long-term effects of climate change? But the point is that this does not mean we should do nothing - it means that we should take sensible steps to limit or mitigate the effects. 

But we are not going about this in the right way. Globally we should prioritise those countries responsible for the major part of emissions, but instead each country, each nation state has set its own net zero target and within each country, instead of asking all companies to reach net zero, we should accept that some Industries will be net positive and others net negative. We could manage this by having a carbon tax and favouring certain Industries whilst penalising others. A carbon tax should be global with some adjustment for imports and exports, but instead we are just exporting our carbon producing industry to manufacturing often poorer countries. Despite all the conferences, the consumption of fossil fuels is rising and rising dramatically. This is a matter for competence and integrity and thoughtfulness. Natural gas was Europe’s and the environment's main advantage but it has become a political issue.

Turning now to international trade and troubles with China. The progress since the last war and certainly since the 1970s has been made on cheap energy from Russia minerals from exploited smaller states, cheap labour from China and what was called the third world and America’s global institutions. Some have characterized this as America's neocolonial Empire.

This lifted billions literally billions out of poverty. But now, we have Trump threatening sanctions and tariffs of 10% on all imports into America. As we’ve been saying for a long time, China needs to rebalance its economy away from manufacturing goods for export,  that some are able to argue is flooding the world and threatening the Industries of more developed economies. And should instead rebalance towards production for home consumption - there’s no point in flooding the world with goods or building empty houses and roads that go nowhere, because this is of no benefit to the Chinese population who do all the work, leaving the West particularly America running enormous trade deficits on money stored in the dollar as reliable reserve currency. 

While more global trade can benefit everyone, certain communities missed out when their industry was shifted to another economy where labour was cheaper,  leaving them with nothing and no future. There’s a lot of bad feeling and disillusionment created when people the jobs and income go overseas and see certain members of the community benefit from the globalisation bandwagon. These people - labelled as deplorable, forgotten or declassified - they read this correctly as being at their expense and to the benefit of global capitalism. Simply imposing sanctions and tariffs, or worse going to war to take out the competitors supply manufacturing base, is not the answer as this will eventually disadvantage the home population as well. Nobody wins in a war be it economic or military, certainly not these days. 

Better to create geopolitical links in which to share the problems and the Chinese may well be open to that, but it requires extraordinary leadership with the complication of Taiwan always being on the negotiating table.

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Adapted from Failed Predictions : https://youtu.be/gnGOFvzMO6I?si=O-bufRA6OADiz8R0

1. Introduction

- Authors: Lord Mervyn King, former Governor of the Bank of England, and John Kay, economist and journalist.

- Book Title: "Radical Uncertainty: Decision Making Beyond the Numbers".

2. Concept of Radical Uncertainty

- Definition: Radical uncertainty refers to situations where outcomes are unpredictable and can't be quantified with probabilities.

- Key Idea: Traditional models and economic theories often fail to address the complexities and unpredictable nature of real-world decision-making.

3. Critique of Current Decision-Making Models

- Flaws in Probability Models: The authors argue that reliance on probabilistic models can be misleading in dealing with genuine uncertainty.

- Real-world Examples: Case studies of financial crises, pandemics, and political events illustrate the limitations of conventional models.

4. Alternative Approach to Decision Making

- Narrative and Stories: Emphasises using stories and narratives to make sense of complex situations rather than relying solely on data and models.

- Judgement and Wisdom: Encourages the use of human judgement, experience, and wisdom in decision-making processes.

5. Practical Implications

- For Policymakers: Suggests that policymakers should be humble about their ability to predict the future and should prepare for a range of possible outcomes.

- For Businesses: Advises businesses to build resilience and flexibility rather than trying to predict every possible risk.

6. Conclusion

- Main Takeaway: The authors advocate for a broader and more pragmatic approach to decision making in the face of uncertainty, moving beyond the comfort of numbers and probabilities.

7. Reception and Impact

- Critical Acclaim: The book has been praised for its insightful analysis and practical relevance.

- Influence on Thought: It challenges conventional economic thinking and encourages a re-evaluation of how decisions are made in uncertain times.

Glossary of Terms

- Radical Uncertainty: Situations where future outcomes cannot be predicted or quantified.

- Probabilistic Models: Mathematical models that use probability to predict outcomes.

- Narrative: A spoken or written account of connected events; a story used to make sense of complex situations.

Notes

Groupthink and leadership. The term was coined by psychologist Irving Janis in 1972. He identified it by studying decision-making processes in high-stakes political scenarios, such as the Bay of Pigs invasion. Where would we be today if JFK had abandoned his leadership role and gone along with the thinking of his advisors?

Some references on voting reform

http://www.livingintheair.org/2024/07/the-irresistible-case-for-voting-reform.html 

http://www.livingintheair.org/2024/07/combining-proportional-representation.html

http://www.livingintheair.org/2024/07/case-for-electoral-reform.html

http://www.livingintheair.org/2024/07/direct-democracy-swiss-experience.html

http://www.livingintheair.org/2024/06/votesmart.html

http://www.livingintheair.org/2024/06/direct-democracy-swiss-experience.html

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CONTROL MECHANISMS: HOW ISRAEL RUNS AMERICA'S FOREIGN POLICY

2 August 2024

HOW THE ISRAEL LOBBY CONTROLS AMERICAN FOREIGN POLICY

This article explores (a) methods employed by The Israel Lobby also known as "the donor class" to shape U.S. foreign policy in favour of Israel - various direct lobbying efforts, educational trips, grassroots mobilisation in favour of or against members of Congress or candidates, Influence through think tanks and the media and (b) top donors whose contributions fund these methods.

Here is why we should be concerned: the "donor class" is raising concerns of a major conflagration in the Middle East that risks destroying our civilisation.

1. Overview of "The Israel Lobby"

Authors and Premise: John J. Mearsheimer and Stephen M. Walt authored "The Israel Lobby and U.S. Foreign Policy." The book argues that the Israel lobby has a significant impact on U.S. foreign policy, often to the detriment of U.S. national interests.

2. Mechanisms of Influence on Congress

- Campaign Contributions

  - Financial Support: Pro-Israel political action committees (PACs) such as AIPAC, Democratic Majority for Israel (DMFI), and the United Democracy Project (UDP) provide substantial financial contributions to congressional campaigns. This financial backing ensures that candidates who support pro-Israel policies have the necessary resources to win elections (TrackAIPAC.com).

Worth noting that these campaign contributions are not just large sums of money handed over into a candidate's campaign pot. They are sums that are promised but held back by the donor, remaining in the donor's bank account pending satisfactory performance in congress.

- Lobbying Efforts

  - Direct Lobbying: AIPAC and other pro-Israel organisations engage in extensive lobbying efforts, meeting with members of Congress and their staff to advocate for pro-Israel legislation. This lobbying includes providing talking points, arranging meetings with Israeli officials, and organising events. These efforts help to ensure that lawmakers are well-informed and aligned with pro-Israel policies (Mearsheimer and Walt).

- Educational Trips

  - Sponsored Trips to Israel: Pro-Israel groups frequently sponsor trips to Israel for U.S. legislators and their aides. These trips are designed to provide a favourable view of Israel’s security situation and to strengthen personal and political ties. By experiencing Israel firsthand, lawmakers are more likely to develop a sympathetic understanding of its geopolitical challenges (TrackAIPAC.com).

- Grassroots Mobilisation

  - Constituent Pressure: The Israel lobby mobilises grassroots support, encouraging the Congressman's or Congresswoman's constituents to contact their representative to support pro-Israel positions. This grassroots pressure can significantly influence congressional decision-making, as legislators seek to align with the views of their voters (Mearsheimer and Walt).

Influence through Think Tanks and Media

- Think Tanks

  - Policy Advocacy: Pro-Israel think tanks such as the Washington Institute for Near East Policy produce research and policy recommendations that support Israel's interests. These think tanks provide intellectual backing for pro-Israel policies and influence public debate by framing issues in ways that are favourable to Israel (Mearsheimer and Walt).

3. Media Influence

  - Shaping Public Opinion: The Israel lobby works to influence media coverage to ensure favourable reporting on Israel and its policies. Positive media coverage can shape public opinion, which in turn influences congressional attitudes. By maintaining a positive image of Israel in the media, the lobby helps create a political environment conducive to pro-Israel legislation (TrackAIPAC.com).

4. Political Consequences

- Election Support and Opposition

  - Endorsements and Funding: The Israel lobby supports candidates who are favourable to Israel and opposes those who are not. This includes providing funding to pro-Israel candidates and backing primary challengers against incumbents who are critical of Israel. By influencing electoral outcomes, the lobby ensures that a significant number of U.S. Congress members support policies favourable to the Israeli government (Mearsheimer and Walt).

- Legislative Outcomes

  - Policy Impact: The combined efforts of lobbying, campaign contributions, grassroots mobilisation, and media influence and framing, result in strong congressional support for Israel-related legislation. This support often translates into significant U.S. military and financial aid - $3.2 billion annual routine funding plus special funding - to Israel, as well as favourable diplomatic policies. The lobby's influence ensures that U.S. foreign policy decisions are consistently aligned with Israeli interests (TrackAIPAC.com).

5. Criticisms and Controversies

- Allegations of Dual Passports, Dual Loyalty

  - Criticism of the Argument: Critics argue that Mearsheimer and Walt’s claims can be perceived as suggesting dual loyalty among American Jews, a point that has generated significant controversy and accusations of anti-Semitism. 

It is very important to note however that many congressmen hold dual American and Israeli passports and it is also very important not to confuse anti-Zionism, a semi-ideology, with anti-semitism, an ethnicity that includes Jews and Muslims, also Christian, of Middle-Eastern extraction. The Israel lobby is not a Jewish lobby per se.

The authors contend that their critique is aimed at the lobby’s influence on policy, not at Jewish Americans as a group (Mearsheimer and Walt).

- Debate Over Influence

  - : There is ongoing debate about the extent of the Israel lobby's influence on U.S. foreign policy. Some argue that the lobby is simply one of many legitimate interest groups that shape policy, while others contend that its influence is disproportionately large and that it employs tactics damaging of democracy. The book highlights the lobby’s success in securing substantial U.S. aid and favourable policies for Israel, illustrating its significant impact (TrackAIPAC.com).

Conclusion

"The Israel Lobby and U.S. Foreign Policy" by John J. Mearsheimer and Stephen M. Walt argues that the Israel lobby uses various means such as campaign contributions, lobbying efforts, educational trips, grassroots mobilisation, think tank support, threats to undermine a candidate's grassroot support, and media influence to garner and direct strong congressional support for Israel. 

This support often results in substantial U.S. financial and military aid and favourable policies toward Israel. The book has sparked significant debate and controversy regarding the nature and extent of the lobby's influence.

This article is written on the basis of information available prior to October 7th. The events since then have sharpened the analysis of Israel's influence on congress.

References

- Mearsheimer, John J., and Stephen M. Walt. "The Israel Lobby and U.S. Foreign Policy."

- TrackAIPAC.com.

- Various reviews and analyses of the book, including those found in reputable publications such as The New York Times, The Washington Post, and certain academic journals.

6. The Donor Class - membership

Here are five notable members of the donor class who have made significant financial contributions to pro-Israel lobbying efforts, along with evidence of their contributions:

- Michael Bloomberg:

   - Contribution: $19.3 million to Democrats in the 2020 election cycle.

   - Details: Michael Bloomberg, former mayor of New York City and founder of Bloomberg LP, has been a substantial donor to Democratic candidates and causes. His contributions include significant funding aimed at supporting pro-Israel policies through various political action committees and direct donations.

   - Source: The Times of Israel Article "Meet the Donor Class

- Jeffrey and Janine Yass:

   - Contribution: Over $13 million, primarily to Republicans.

   - Details: Jeffrey Yass, co-founder of the Susquehanna International Group, is known for his libertarian views and substantial financial support to pro-Israel candidates and causes. His contributions include donations to PACs and direct support to candidates who align with pro-Israel policies.

   - Source: Jewish Telegraphic Agency

meet-the-top-15-jewish-political-donors

- James and Marilyn Simons:

   - Contribution: Nearly $21 million to Democrats.

   - Details: James Simons, founder of Renaissance Technologies, and his wife Marilyn are significant donors to Democratic candidates and pro-Israel lobbying efforts. Their contributions support a range of political and philanthropic causes, including those promoting Israel's interests.

   - Source: as above

- Henry and Marsha Laufer:

   - Contribution: $11.8 million to Democrats.

   - Details: Henry Laufer, a former executive at Renaissance Technologies, and his wife Marsha have donated substantial amounts to Democratic candidates and pro-Israel causes. Their contributions help fund political campaigns and organisations that support Israel's interests in U.S. policy.

   - Source: The Times of Israel

- Paul Singer:

   - Contribution: $8.8 million to Republicans.

   - Details: Paul Singer, founder of Elliott Management Corporation, is a prominent donor to Republican candidates and pro-Israel causes. He has been instrumental in supporting pro-Israel lobbying efforts and political campaigns that align with his views.

   - Source: as above

These individuals are notable for their significant financial contributions, which help shape U.S. foreign policy in favour of Israel through various lobbying efforts and political donations.

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THE FOUR HOUR WORKWEEK BY TIM FERRIS

31 July 2024

"The 4-Hour Workweek" by Tim Ferriss

Work remotely in a stress-free environment on a beach. 

The relaxed atmosphere with palm trees, blue sky, and calm ocean waves symbolises the lifestyle promoted in this book.

SUMMARY

Key Concepts:

- Lifestyle Design: Shift from traditional career paths to more flexible and fulfilling lifestyles.

- DEAL Framework: Define goals, Eliminate distractions, Automate processes, and Liberate yourself from the office.

Strategies:

1. Outsourcing: Delegate tasks to virtual assistants.

2. Pareto Principle (80/20 Rule): Focus on the 20% of activities that yield 80% of results.

3. Mini-Retirements: Take frequent, short breaks - no need to wait for retirement.

Goals:

- More freedom, more time, not simply more money

- Achieve work-life balance.

- Increase productivity.

- Enjoy life through smart work practices.

DETAIL

 "The 4-Hour Workweek" by Tim Ferriss: Chapter-by-Chapter Summary

Chapter 1: New Rich

- Introduces the concept of the "New Rich," people who prioritise time and freedom (mobility) over wealth accumulation.

- Encourages readers to define their goals and lifestyle dreams.

Chapter 2: Rules That Change the Rules

- Discusses breaking free from traditional work habits.

- Emphasises unconventional thinking and the importance of questioning the status quo.

Chapter 3: Dodging Bullets

- Introduces time management techniques to reduce workload.

- Encourages outsourcing and delegating tasks to virtual assistants.

Chapter 4: System Reset

- Advocates for a mobile lifestyle.

- Discusses techniques to negotiate remote work and extended travel.

Chapter 5: The End of Time Management

- Promotes productivity over “busywork” ( activity that is undertaken to pass time and stay busy but in and of itself has little or no actual value)

- Introduces the Pareto Principle (80/20 Rule) and Parkinson's Law ( work expands to fill the time available for its completion ) to maximize efficiency.

Chapter 6: The Low-Information Diet

- Advises on limiting information intake to avoid overwhelm.

- Focuses on critical information for decision-making and productivity.

Chapter 7: Interrupting Interruption

- Provides strategies to eliminate distractions and unnecessary interruptions.

- Encourages setting boundaries for communication.

Chapter 8: Outsourcing Life

- Details the process of outsourcing tasks to virtual assistants.

- Offers tips on finding and managing remote help effectively.

Chapter 9: Income Autopilot

- Discusses creating automated income streams.

- Explores product development, online business models, and marketing strategies.

Chapter 10: Filling the Void

- Addresses finding purpose and fulfilment beyond work.

- Encourages pursuing passions, hobbies, and meaningful activities.

Chapter 11: Disappearing Act

- Discusses the benefits of taking mini-retirements and extended travel breaks.

- Provides practical advice for planning and executing long-term travel.

Chapter 12: Beyond Repair

- Focuses on continuous improvement and adaptation.

- Encourages readers to stay flexible and open to change.

Chapter 13: It's Up to You

- Summarises key concepts and motivates readers to take action.

- Reinforces the idea of designing one's ideal lifestyle.

[End]

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SOUTHPORT A PORTRAIT OF PAST, PRESENT AND FUTURE

Southport 

- A Portrait of Past and Present

- What Nationalists want

- Root Causes, Future and Conclusion

 Historical Context

Southport, a coastal town in Merseyside, UK, has a rich history dating back to the early 19th century when it developed as a popular seaside resort. Known for its Victorian architecture and beautiful gardens, Southport attracted visitors from all over the country. Key landmarks include the iconic Lord Street and the prestigious Royal Birkdale Golf Club. This development was fuelled by the town's appeal as a leisure destination, combining picturesque scenery with sophisticated amenities.

 Present-Day Southport

Today, Southport retains much of its historical charm while embracing modern amenities. According to the 2021 Census, the town has a population of approximately 95 thousand. The demographic profile is predominantly White (95%), with smaller communities of Asians (2%), Blacks (0.6%), mixed/multiple ethnic groups (1.7%), and other ethnic groups (0.5%). The age distribution shows a significant proportion of elderly residents, with a quarter of the population aged 65 and over. The religious landscape is primarily Christian (58.4%), with notable minorities identifying as Muslim (1.1%) and no religion (33.5%).

 Understanding the Tragedy of July 29

On July 29, 2024, Southport was deeply affected by a tragic knife attack that resulted in the deaths of three children and several critically injured and currently in hospital. The perpetrator, a 17-year-old boy from Cardiff with mental health issues, was arrested. The immediate community response included vigils and support for the victims' families. 

However, the situation quickly escalated into violent protests, exacerbated by nationalist groups such as the English Defence League (EDL). These groups employed familiar tactics to incite unrest, targeting local mosques and clashing with police. This leads to injuries, notably many severe injuries to the police and volunteer off-duty policemen, with widespread property damage and masses of publicity.

 Context to the Violence

 Increasing Stress and Mental Health Issues

The Southport attack can be viewed in the broader context of rising stress and mental health issues among the UK's youth. Economic uncertainties, possibly the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic, and societal pressures, continue to contribute to a mental health crisis and multiple protest movements, particularly amongst the young and disadvantaged. 

These factors often lead to violent behaviours, as seen in the Southport incident, where a young individual committed a so-far inexplicable act of violence and many commentators see the response as low level Civil War.

But it is also fair to say that many of these race riots, whether instigated by nationalist or ethnic groups, start off with complaints of police racism and brutality; and escalate to criticisms of institutional racism in favour of one community or another; and eventually move to responses suggesting that the group feels its very existence is under threat.

 Community Response and Cultural Clashes

The community response, particularly the violent protests, is a re-run of predictable cultural clashes and tensions related to immigration and attempts at multiculturalism. The presence of nationalist agitators drawing attention to these issues can also be seen as the a tendency to “blame” cultural and ethnic diversity, an overly-heterogeneous society and ultimately globalism and open borders, globalism and massive and uncontrolled immigration, for creating community and social problems. 

This reaction in Southpirt however is surprising given Southport's largely elderly population, which one might not typically associate with such intense anti-police actions, suggesting that outside influences played a part.

Over the years, the UK has experienced significant demographic changes due to immigration, leading to a more multicultural society. While diversity supposedly strengthens and enriches communities, it has also been met with resistance from segments of the population who perceive it as a threat to social cohesion and economic progress. Incidents like the Southport attack become flashpoints for these underlying tensions, where the complexities of modern immigration policies and cultural integration and just life in general in advance developed societies, are often simplified into narratives that focus exclusively on uncontrolled immigration as causing societal breakdown 

What Nationalists want

A nationalist program might include the following:

- Prioritise the interests and culture of "our own nation" over those of others

- Emphasise the importance of national sovereignty, cultural identity, and economic independence

- Protect and promote "our own" country's unique heritage and values

- Push for policies that limit foreign influence (at home included) and immigration.

Point being: national unity and identity from shared history; security from borders; and prosperity from a common coordinated sense of direction.

 Conclusion

The knife attack in Southport on July 29 is a tragic example of the growing mental health crisis among the youth in the UK and the community's - and country's - volatile response to perceived threats to its culture. 

Understanding what happened requires a nuanced view of Southport's historical development, the pressures of contemporary life, and the challenges of multicultural integration. 

The town's grieving was marred by violent protests, possibly brought about by outside groups. This highlights the urgent need for addressing mental health issues, fostering a more inclusive society and taking serious steps to control the type of immigration that would benefit Stockport and the nation, at the risk of eventually losing the country to Civil War.

Multiculturalism seems to be resulting in national decline, foreign wars and setting groups at odds with each other, and in particular is stressing the youth. Nationalists are taking advantage of this situation to press their populist agenda for change.

 Only by tackling the root causes can communities hope to prevent such tragedies and build a more harmonious and prosperous future together.

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WHY PALESTINE BELONGS TO THE JEWS

30 July 2024

We shall look first at the biblical foundations of the claim that this area of Syria-Palestine belongs to the Jewish people, then we shall endeavour to trace the history of the Jewish people in and out of this area.

BIBLICAL PERSPECTIVE

Key Biblical Passages

The belief that the Holy Land was promised by God to the Israelites is rooted in a number of verses from the Hebrew Bible (Old Testament). This promise is a central theme in Jewish, Christian, and Islamic traditions. Here are Yahweh's (God's, Allah's) main promises to the people he chose, as written in the bible, backing this belief:

Key Biblical Passages

1. Genesis 12:1-3:

   - Context: God's initial call to Abram (later Abraham).

   - Verse: "The Lord had said to Abram, 'Go from your country, your people and your father’s household to the land I will show you. I will make you into a great nation, and I will bless you; I will make your name great, and you will be a blessing. I will bless those who bless you, and whoever curses you I will curse; and all peoples on earth will be blessed through you.'"

   - Significance: This passage introduces the idea that God has a special plan and land for Abram and his descendants.

2. Genesis 15:18-21:

   - Context: The covenant between God and Abram.

   - Verse: "On that day the Lord made a covenant with Abram and said, 'To your descendants I give this land, from the Wadi of Egypt to the great river, the Euphrates—the land of the Kenites, Kenizzites, Kadmonites, Hittites, Perizzites, Rephaites, Amorites, Canaanites, Girgashites and Jebusites.'"

   - Significance: Specifies the geographical boundaries of the land promised to Abram's descendants.

3. Genesis 17:7-8:

   - Context: The covenant of circumcision.

   - Verse: "I will establish my covenant as an everlasting covenant between me and you and your descendants after you for the generations to come, to be your God and the God of your descendants after you. The whole land of Canaan, where you now reside as a foreigner, I will give as an everlasting possession to you and your descendants after you; and I will be their God."

   - Significance: Reaffirms the promise and describes the land of Canaan as an "everlasting possession."

4. Exodus 3:7-8:

   - Context: God speaks to Moses at the burning bush.

   - Verse: "The Lord said, 'I have indeed seen the misery of my people in Egypt. I have heard them crying out because of their slave drivers, and I am concerned about their suffering. So I have come down to rescue them from the hand of the Egyptians and to bring them up out of that land into a good and spacious land, a land flowing with milk and honey—the home of the Canaanites, Hittites, Amorites, Perizzites, Hivites and Jebusites.'"

   - Significance: Indicates the intention to lead the Israelites to the promised land as part of their liberation from Egypt.

5. Deuteronomy 30:1-5:

   - Context: God's promise of restoration.

   - Verse: "When all these blessings and curses I have set before you come on you and you take them to heart wherever the Lord your God disperses you among the nations, and when you and your children return to the Lord your God and obey him with all your heart and with all your soul according to everything I command you today, then the Lord your God will restore your fortunes and have compassion on you and gather you again from all the nations where he scattered you. Even if you have been banished to the most distant land under the heavens, from there the Lord your God will gather you and bring you back. He will bring you to the land that belonged to your ancestors, and you will take possession of it. He will make you more prosperous and numerous than your ancestors."

   - Significance: Emphasizes the promise of return to the land even after exile.

 Theological Interpretation

- Judaism: The promise of the land is a foundational element of the covenant between God and the Jewish people. It underpins the Jewish historical connection to the land of Israel.

- Christianity: While Christians also accept the Old Testament, interpretations of the land promise can vary. Some view it as a literal promise to the Jewish people, while others see it as symbolic or fulfilled in the coming of Christ.

- Islam: The Quran also references the land promised to the Children of Israel, acknowledging the biblical narrative while placing it within the broader context of Islamic teachings.

 Conclusion

The belief that the Holy Land was promised by God to the Israelites is deeply rooted in several key passages of the Hebrew Bible, inspired the Zionist ideology, and forms a central part of Jewish theology as well as  influencing Christian and Islamic perspectives.

HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE

 Movement of Jews In and Out of the Holy Land and Relevant UN Resolutions

 Ancient Times

c. 2000 BCE - The Patriarchs

- Event: Abraham, regarded as the patriarch of the Israelites, receives a divine promise of land.

- Reference: Genesis 12:1-3.

- Significance: Establishes the initial connection of Jews to the land.

c. 1300 BCE - The Exodus

- Event: Moses leads the Israelites out of Egypt.

- Reference: Exodus 3:7-8.

- Significance: Marks the journey towards the Promised Land.

c. 1200 BCE - Conquest of Canaan

- Event: Under Joshua, the Israelites conquer and annex Canaan. The cities of Jericho, Ai and Hazar were burnt to the ground and their peoples were exterminated. However, although the fate of the Canaanite populations is depicted in the Bible as involving widespread destruction and extermination, historical and archaeological evidence suggests a migration, conflict and assimilation, in other words what would today be called a one state solution.

- Reference: Joshua 1-12.

- Significance: Establishes Jewish presence in the Holy Land.

 First Exile and Return

586 BCE - Babylonian Exile

- Event: Babylon conquers Judah, destroys the First Temple, also known as Solomon's Temple (constructed in Jerusalem in the 10th century BCE. It was built to house the Ark of the Covenant and serve as the central place of worship for the Israelites).

Babylon, near modern-day Baghdad, Iraq, was an ancient city renowned for its architecture and cultural achievements. Created by King Hammurabi (c. 1792-1750 BCE) and peaked during the Neo-Babylonian period under King Nebuchadnezzar II, who built the Hanging Gardens, the Ishtar Gate and the Tower of Babel. Probably succeeded thanks to Hammurabi's sophisticated code of law.

The city fell to Cyrus the Great of Persia in 539 BCE, who permitted the return of the Jews to Canaan.

- Reference: 2 Kings 25.

- Significance: Jews are exiled to Babylon.

538 BCE - Return under Cyrus the Great

- Event: Persian King Cyrus allows Jews to return.

- Reference: Ezra 1 (The Book of Ezra describes the return of the Jews from the Babylonian exile and the rebuilding of the Temple in Jerusalem.)

- Significance: Beginning of the period of the Second Temple.

 Roman Period and Second Exile

70 CE - Destruction of the Second Temple

- Event: Romans destroy the Second Temple.

- Reference: Historical accounts by Josephus.

- Significance: Major dispersal of Jews in all directions (Diaspora).

132-135 CE - Bar Kokhba Revolt

- Event: Jewish revolt against Roman rule.

- Reference: Historical texts.

- Significance: Further dispersal and restrictions on Jewish presence in Jerusalem.

 Medieval Period

1096-1270 CE - Crusades

- Event: European Christians launch Crusades to reclaim Holy Land.

- Reference: Historical chronicles.

- Significance: Jews face persecution and forced displacement.

1492 CE - Expulsion from Spain

- Event: Jews expelled from Spain during the Inquisition. Ferdinand and Isabella wished to unite their new Kingdom and the catalytic religion believing that this would be best for stability. 

In addition, rhere was considerable anti-Jewish sentiment, fueled by economic envy, religious prejudice, and accusations of usury and other crimes, leading to anti-Jewish riots and massacres. Jews in Spain were often prominent in trade, finance, and administration, so expulsion allowed the monarchy and local elites to confiscate Jewish property and wealth.

- Reference: Edict of Expulsion.

- Significance: Movement of Jews to the Ottoman Empire, including Palestine.

 Modern Era and Zionist Movement

1882-1903 - First Aliyah

- Event: Jewish immigration to Palestine from Eastern Europe.

- Reference: Zionist records.

- Significance: Establishment of agricultural settlements.

1917 - Balfour Declaration

- Event: British support for a Jewish homeland in Palestine, but not a Jewish state, a brief text.

- Reference: British government declaration.

- Significance: Boosts Jewish immigration.

1947 - UN Partition Plan

- Event: UN proposes partition of Palestine.

- Reference: UN Resolution 181.

- Significance: Sets stage for Israeli independence.

 Establishment of Israel and Subsequent Conflicts

1948 - Creation of Israel

- Event: Declaration of the State of Israel.

- Reference: Israeli Declaration of Independence.

- Significance: Major Jewish immigration, and Arab refusal creating Arab-Israeli conflict.

Departure from the 1947 UN Plan

Event: United Nations General Assembly Resolution 181 proposed partitioning Palestine into separate Jewish and Arab states, with Jerusalem under international administration.

Jewish State: Allocated 55% of the land despite Jews being one-third of the population and owning less than 10% of the land.

Arab State: Allocated 45% of the land.

Jerusalem: Planned to be an international city under UN administration.

Departure from the Plan

Israel creation by Israel (1948): 

On May 14, 1948, the Jewish leadership, led by David Ben-Gurion, declared the establishment of the State of Israel. This declaration came before any formal acceptance or rejection of the UN plan by both parties.

War and Territory: Immediately following the declaration, neighboring Arab states invaded. The ensuing 1948 Arab-Israeli War resulted in Israel controlling about 78% of the former British Mandate of Palestine, including territories beyond the UN plan's allocation.

Non-Implementation of International Control: Jerusalem did not come under international administration but was divided between Israeli control in the West and Jordanian control in the East.

Jacques Baud, in his book "Operation Al-Aqsa Flood: The Defeat of the Vanquisher," discusses several breaches of the 1947 UN Partition Plan for Palestine. 

He highlights one significant breach was the failure to conduct a referendum to determine the will of the local population regarding the partition. Baud argues that this lack of a referendum ignored the principle of self-determination, leading to further conflicts and tensions in the region.

The Israeli governments ignored all the UN resolutions discussed in this post.

1948 - Arab-Israeli War

- Event: War following Israeli independence.

- Reference: Historical accounts.

- Significance: Exodus of Jews from Arab countries to Israel.

1967 - Six-Day War

- Event: Israel defeats neighboring Arab states.

- Reference: Military records, historical analyses.

- Significance: Israel captures Jerusalem, West Bank, Gaza, Sinai, Golan Heights.

1973 - Yom Kippur War

- Event: Surprise attack by Egypt and Syria on Israel.

- Reference: Military records, historical analyses.

- Significance: Strategic Israeli victory, continued tension.

 Relevant UN Resolutions

Pre-State Resolutions:

- UNGA Resolution 181 (1947): Partition Plan proposing the creation of Jewish and Arab states, plus a shared third state,  Jerusalem, which I guess might resemble the Vatican.

- UNSC Resolution 50 (1948): Called for a ceasefire during the 1948 Arab-Israeli War.

Post-State Resolutions:

- UNGA Resolution 194 (1948): Addressed the refugee problem and called for the right of return for Palestinian refugees.

- UNSC Resolution 242 (1967): Following the Six-Day War, called for Israeli withdrawal from territories occupied in the conflict and the recognition of every state in the area's right to live in peace.

- UNSC Resolution 338 (1973): Called for a ceasefire in the Yom Kippur War and implementation of Resolution 242.

- UNSC Resolution 497 (1981): Declared Israel's annexation of the Golan Heights "null and void."

- UNGA Resolution 67/19 (2012): Granted Palestine non-member observer state status in the UN.

 Modern Movements and Peace Efforts

1979 - Egypt-Israel Peace Treaty

- Event: Peace treaty signed between Israel and Egypt.

- Reference: Treaty documents.

- Significance: First Arab country to officially recognize Israel.

1993 - Oslo Accords

- Event: Israel and PLO sign peace agreement.

- Reference: Oslo Accords.

- Significance: Mutual recognition, steps towards Palestinian self-governance.

2005 - Gaza Disengagement

- Event: Israel withdraws from Gaza Strip.

- Reference: Israeli government records.

- Significance: Evacuation of Israeli settlers, continued conflict.

2020 - Abraham Accords

- Event: Normalization agreements between Israel and several Arab nations, brokered by the United States.

- Countries Involved: United Arab Emirates (UAE), Bahrain, Sudan, and Morocco.

- Significance: Marked a significant shift in Arab-Israeli relations, normalizing diplomatic, economic, and other relations.

 Conclusion

The creation of the State of Israel significantly departed from the UN Partition Plan due to the outcomes of the 1948 Arab-Israeli War, leading to broader territorial control by Israel than initially allocated. Subsequent UN resolutions have addressed various aspects of the conflict, including territorial disputes and the rights of refugees. The Abraham Accords represent a recent shift towards normalization of relations between Israel and certain Arab states, aiming to foster regional stability and cooperation.

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LIBERAL THINKERS

We must thank the Liberal Thinkers, classical and modern, for our ideas on Liberalism and propelling individualism. I'm going to summarise them here and write other pieces at some point on selected influencers :

John Locke (1632-1704) on natural rights: life, liberty, and property. 

Adam Smith (1723-1790) on free markets and the invisible hand. 

Jean-Jacques Rousseau (1712-1778) on popular sovereignty and the social contract. 

John Stuart Mill (1806-1873) utilitarianism and individual liberty. 

Alexis de Tocqueville (1805-1859) for civil society and political liberty. 

Isaiah Berlin (1909-1997) negative and positive liberty, pluralism and individual choice.  

Friedrich Hayek (1899-1992) free-market capitalism v. Socialism, warned against totalitarianism. 

John Rawls (1921-2002) justice as fairness.

These liberal values condition our self-development projects.

Classic Liberalism is a bottom-up view of society, ie individuals make the group not the other way around. Today, Liberalism is about human rights, positive liberty, "freedom to...", originally Liberalism was about "freedom from", the fundamental rights or natural freedom that individuals inherently possess in "the state of nature".

Remember where we came from and the  primitive instinctive "Call of the Savannah" we all know, but our elites seem unable to resist. 

Wildlife films show us how "solitary, poor, nasty, brutish, and short" is that State of Nature and why individuals might agree to give up some of their freedoms to a strong and sovereign state with absolute power to ensure order and stability, in exchange for protection. 

Note: A totalitarian Hobbesian state guaranteeing security in exchange for your freedom is not part of Liberal thinking, but he was the first to see that Society is composed of individuals who come together for mutual interests in a "social contract".

Hobbes was an early liberal in the sense that he believed individuals had fundamental inalienable natural rights, and because he introduced the idea of a social contract between indidividual and state, but he is not a liberal because he believed people valued security over freedom (which I happen to think they mostly do) and because he believed in an all powerful state (you would call it "big state" today, as opposed to the "night watchman state" that a true liberal wants). 

Basically, Hobbes had a pretty pessimistic view of human nature, which is not can-do Liberal thinking, but that humanity has not much evolved since we lived in the jungle (agreed?) and that we are all basically selfish killers on the make for territory food and mates (primitive animal behaviour...agreed?).

 ... I digress...

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THE FRANCE ZEMMOUR SEEKS TO SAVE (RHETORICAL DEVICES)

30 November 2021

Zemmour: journalist, polemics, presidential candudate...His candidacy speech embraces you, oppresses you, haunts you, rallies you. It's a masterpiece.

https://youtu.be/k8IGBDK1BH8

He appears speaking behind a huge mike and in front of ancient books stacked on shelves, reminding us of De Gaulle's wartime calls for resistance (Appeal of June 18 by General de Gaulle).

He begins by telling us his mission, which is to save France from decline "so that our daughters don't have to wear headscarves and our sons don't have to be submissive".

"I understood that no politician would have the courage to save the country from the tragic fate that awaited it. I understood that all these supposedly competent people were mostly helpless [...] That in all parties, they were content with reforms while time is running out. It is no longer time to reform France, but to save it.

I therefore decided to stand for the presidential election."

If you want to know more about how he uses repetition (1), insistence (2), the transfer of allegiance from "you" to "we" (3), mirroring (4), tirades of accumulation (5), assonance (a rhythm of similar sounds) (6) dramatic background music (7):

1. Repetition
Do you remember the country you knew in your childhood? Do you remember the country your parents described to you? Do you remember the country you find in the movies?

2. Accumulation, insistence

our lifestyles, our traditions, our language, our conversations, our controversies on history or fashion, our taste for literature and gastronomy

Joan of Arc, Pasteur, de Gaulle, Molière or even Notre Dame and village churches: all these figures are associated with the word "country". This word is repeated 24 times in two minutes.

The powerful, the elites, the well-meaning, journalists, politicians, academics , sociologists, trade unionists, the well-meaning religious authorities as well.

The country of Joan of Arc and Louis XIV [..] of knights and gentes dames [..] fables of La Fontaine, characters of Molière and verses of Racine

3. From "you" to "we" - pushing you to side with him

You walk [..] you look at your screens [...] you take subways [...] you wait for your daughter or your son at the end of school ...

We must give back the power to the people, take it back from minorities that oppress the majority.

4. Mirroring

You have not left your country, but it is as if your country has left you. You are exiles from within.

You were despised [...] but you understood that it was they who were baiting you, it was they who were harming you

5. Tirade

The French people have been intimidated, paralyzed, indoctrinated, made to feel guilty

For a thousand years, we have been one of the powers that have written the history of the world. We will be worthy of our ancestors. We will not allow ourselves to be dominated, vassalized, conquered, colonized. We will not let ourselves be replaced

6. Assonance

"S" and "P"

7. Dramatic music background

Rather ironic this as the music is not from French culture, it is the adagio of the 7th Symphony of the German composer Ludwig van Beethoven, also used in The speech of a king, a British made film.

is.gd/mMZ3Wz

8. Black n white photos

He contrasts a past glorious France, using black and white images of black and white of Jean Gabin, Alain Delon, Brigitte Bardot, Johnny Halliday, Charles Aznavour, Georges Brassens, Barbara; with scenes of violence and social unrest from today.

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THE UNITED SELF

2 Aug 2022

If you want to know what we humans are really like - well I expect you know already - just look at some of those wildlife films on lions and hyenas.

They have no compassion or remorse, they take what they think they can get away with, the fight is over territory, food and mates, the dominant emotions are fear and greed.

And they have instinct, which is the accumulation and lessons learnt from the experience of survival over hundreds of thousands of years.

Here's how we adapted...

1. Introduction

- The video "Personality, Modernity, and the Storied Self" explores the evolution of self and identity in modern times.

- R.D. Laing's book written in 1960, The Divided Self, explores connection and alienation and, as I see it, how to write a good autobiography.

- Modern, especially in the West, includes capitalism, markets, democracy, nation-states, and the dominance of science and technology.

2. Characteristics of Modern Western Peoples

- Scepticism Towards Tradition: Preference for data-driven approaches over traditional religious or authoritative beliefs.

- Coherent Self: Challenges in maintaining a consistent sense of self across different times and contexts, particularly in diverse societies.

- Emphasis on Uniqueness: Balancing the desire to be unique with the need for connection.

3. Six Characteristics of the Modern Self

- Work in Progress: The self is viewed as an ongoing project, continually improving and adapting.

- Agency: Individuals now have the responsibility to define their own identities and roles, unlike pre-modern times.

- Multi-layered and Deep: Modern individuals juggle multiple, overlapping roles, leading to a complex self-discovery process.

- Self-Development: Lifelong process involving various phases and evolving roles, requiring continual self-adaptation.

- Coherence: Maintaining a coherent narrative across different life phases to construct a unified identity.

- Connection and Pure Relationship: Striving for authentic, self-actualising relationships that fulfill personal needs and desires.

4. Conclusion

- The modern self is a project of self-discovery, adaptation, and improvement.

- It involves seeking uniqueness, connectedness, and authenticity through various life stages and relationships.

Glossary of Terms:

- Modernity: The quality or condition of being modern, characterised by changes brought about by the industrial revolution and beyond - capitalism, markets, democracy, the nation-state, the dominance of Science and Technology - economics drives social, psychological and political changes (though currently we are in an inverted change curve where politics drives economics - a very strange time to be in where the elite is attempting to control populism at home and is trying to assert "world hegemony" abroad).

- Self-actualisation: To use Maslow's term, the final realisation or fulfillment of one's true talents and potentialities, a drive or need that emerges in everyone as more basic needs are fullfilled.

References:

1. "Personality, Modernity, and the Storied Self," YouTube, August 2022.

2. "Impact of Modernity on Identity," Sociological Review.

My notes

self and identity - a biography of our self - who we are - our identity

"personality, modernity and the storied self"

modern

modernity means modern times. Especially in the West ("The West" by this time in the 21st century includes many non Western countries like South Korea or Japan, according to the following framework...).

we have to make a difference between pre modern or pre-industrial times and times since the industrial revolution in the 18th and 19th centuries.

what makes our time "modern" is: capitalism, markets, democracy, the nation-state, the dominance of Science and Technology.

We must thank the Liberal Thinkers, classical and modern, for our ideas on Liberalism and propelling individualism. I'm going to summarise them here and write another piece at some point:

John Locke (1632-1704) on natural rights: life, liberty, and property. 

Adam Smith (1723-1790) on free markets and the invisible hand. 

Jean-Jacques Rousseau (1712-1778) on popular sovereignty and the social contract. 

John Stuart Mill (1806-1873) utilitarianism and individual liberty. 

Alexis de Tocqueville (1805-1859) for civil society and political liberty. 

Isaiah Berlin (1909-1997) negative and positive liberty, pluralism and individual choice.  

Friedrich Hayek (1899-1992) free-market capitalism v. Socialism, warned against totalitarianism. 

John Rawls (1921-2002) justice as fairness.

These liberal values condition our self-development projects.

drivers

and we should look at social, political and economic changes as causing, driving, the changes to our idea of self, of who we are.

characteristics of peoples living in modern Western times

1. a scepticism towards religion and other traditional sources of authority and a preference instead for a data-driven approach based on science, reasoning, objectivity, evidence, positivism etc ... a belief that if we take an evidence-based approach this will lead to improvement in our world

2. difficulty in keeping a coherent sense of one's modern self across the past, present and future and across even yesterday compared to today or tomorrow. Sense of self -read "who we are", "identity".

also keeping up that coherence or integrity across the different roles and contexts and situations that we operate in. Transactional view of who we are - we are what we do.

it's especially challenging for people living in societies with a lot of diversity or to put it another way, a low homogeneity.

For example, societies with different ethnic and religious mixes.

3. there's also more emphasis on our uniqueness rather than on conformity with the tribe, group or herd, and this is challenging because at the same time as we seek to be different we also seek to remain connected.

Six characteristics of the modern self

1. work in progress. we are all a work in progress, we are a project we are working on, the "I" is forever improving a "Me". it can be thought of as a reflexive project reflexive because we are turned towards our self, we are changing our self.

this is modern because compare with pre modern times where a person was given a role or a position or a post and told to get on with it. they were not responsible for creating a unique self or innovating and updating a persona, there was little need, for most people at least, to think about the future or themselves

2. Agency. in pre-modern times it was the king, or the church or mosque or synagogue, or "the tribe", that assigned us a role; but today, we have to work out our own identity and roles in a more day-to-day context of family and work and friends - social media is just an endless series of launch pads, picket fences and ditches, to build and project an identity to friends and fellow professionals

3. multi-layered and deep. compare the simple role that Hindu people in Bali have and live by, compare that with the situation in which modern man or woman find themselves. A modern person has multiple roles and overlapping roles all depending on the group context and the person and so on and this complexity creates a challenge to even know who we are and is why many people are forever on a voyage of self-discovery and why self-help groups are so popular

so before it was the church or mosque that was a moral authority, before it was shame but nowadays it is guilt, in the absence of that moral authority, it is us, we ourselves, who decide our own beliefs and values and who judge our actions, finally who create and project our own identity and it is the search for this authentic identity that drives the projects to modernise ourselves

4. self development. we saw in the points above that the self is a project, for which we are responsible, and this project of ours is a voyage of self-discovery, adaption and improvement - a work in progress. now consider how this is a series of projects, across rhe phases of the longer life that we live - think especially about what this could mean now that we enjoy an extra 50% life expectancy in the form of a phase called retirement or the Third Age.

At the start of the 20th century, the average lifespan was maybe 50 years, but by the end it had reached 75 years and splits into different phases.

We go through different "economic" phases in that time span, we have evolving roles and contexts and thus projects with different objectives for our self, as we mature and develop.

5. Coherence. we go from childhood to adolescence to young adulthood to middle age to older age or maybe more phases than that (cf "the seven ages of man") and we have different roles and contexts to adapt to -  we look for a coherence across all those phases so that we have a story to tell, a narrative, which stitches everything together and brings us one coherent picture of who we are, what we are about that we can then tell others ("project"), taking care to cover the ego.

this coherent narrative is our auto-biography and it's really important, this sense of coherence across the different phases of our life, because it's how we construct our idea of who we are, in other words our identity, our sense of self... we are not, after all this, split personality schizophrenics!

6 connection and the "pure relationship". the 6th and final characteristic of modern selves is that two separate selves can connect to each other to form what we all look for, which is a pure or perfect relationship, in terms of connectedness, love and intimacy, the ying and the yang. The metaphor "two balls of clay brought together into one" encapsulates the essence of relationships, focus is on unity, transformation, and the blending of strengths. Understanding this metaphor can offer valuable insights into the dynamics of forming and sustaining meaningful relationships.

Modern love is not something dictated to us by our parents or arranged by the group or determined by the church or mosque, it is something we choose for ourselves in order to fulfil our deepest needs and desires that we have defined and which are part of our uniqueness.

the two persons, each true and authentic to themself, have a relationship which is honest and open and flexible and negotiable between the two of them. The focus is on both parties achieving what you might call self-actualisation or self-transcendence ( care not to confuse with wokeness). Of course, anyone who's been in a modern romantic relationship knows that this is a pure fiction! ... but nonetheless it is an ideal and a vision that an enlightened modern person can aim for.

Summary. we saw in the points above that the self is a project about constructing our sense of identity, who we are. We are responsible for this project. It is a voyage of self-discovery, adaption, improvement and projection - a work in progress seeking uniqueness, connectedness and authenticity. It is a series of projects, over the longer life that we live. Like ying and yang, we seek union with another complementary soul.

Footnote

"The Divided Self" by R.D. Laing, a Scottish psychiatrist. 

Laing argues that a lot of mental unhappiness (especially schizophrenia - his area of expertise) arises from a division between an individual's "false self" (the outward persona) and their "true self" (the inner, authentic identity).

The result is feelings of alienation and disconnection from oneself and others.

The way to deal with this is to try to understand "the personal experience and subjective reality of individuals". This takes some listening and empathy - he thinks psychiatrists are cold and dehumanising.

He sees everything as starting and finishing in the head, but it might be more realistic to see the effect of the outside world - social, political, economic and so on, on our inner world ...

...Whatever, his idea is to pull the different parts together into a coherent story that we ourself write, a kind of ideological view of our self, that joins up the parts and can be understood by us and by others. It's about connection v. alienation.

V1.3

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