Saturday, 24 May 2025

FISHING INDUSTRY: UK ELITE BETRAYS THE PEOPLE IN EU TRADE DEAL

UK Fishing Industey and The New EU Deal

24 May 2025

A reader writes, "Perhaps we have the government we deserve. Take fishing. The government cares nothing about it. Grimsby? Places like that. Who cares. I think the British consumer doesn't care either where our fish comes from. Fishing is an opportunity to grow a British industry, have a strategic plan, local jobs, processing and canning factories, exports, etc. All of that. The government is metrocentric. None of that would occur to them. They buy Portuguese sardines in a fancy tin. And the ordinary voters acquiesce. No wonder we are in such a mess. An island nation with hardly any fishing industry!"

That's a powerful and quite sad report! I would file it under the heading *managed decline*....We do the declining, they do the managing - which is essentially a combination of neglect and control and betrayal, to the point where the people in their resignation get landed with a government that does not follow or represent the interests of the British people as a whole. We are no longer outraged by decline and neglect, we adjust to it, we get used to it, we accept it, we expect it.

So let's break down exactly what is happening. We can see the neglect, read 'betrayal', of the fishing industry as an example of the UK losing sovereignty over its affairs. 

Who is doing the betraying? It is the urban elite pursing their own interests, which are more often than not globalist, at the expense of national and local communities, devesting real local assets to reinvest in financials and global outsourcing. 

The result is that ordinary people come to expect no better than neglect from their governors.... it feels almost feudal.

Perhaps this makes tactical sense in some way at the level of the ruling elite, but it is missing a longer term strategic opportunity for Britain. Instead of MBGA, we have neglect of our local communities, of the diversity of our economic interests, and most importantly neglect of our culture, in this case of Britain as a maritime nation.

1. Fishing as an example of loss of Sovereignty 

It isn’t just economic, it’s symbolic too. 

Control over our own waters.... (and beaches of course, ha ha)

Local industry is important, isn't this obvious? Or does the urban elite not care about further marginalising already marginalised communities? This sounds a little like the shutdown of the mining industry in the 1980s, or deindustrialisation more generally - selling real assets and reinvesting financial products and services.

Maritime independence is not just economic, it's part of our culture. We don't want that changed. We are a maritime nation.

Post-Brexit, many expected the UK to reclaim and rebuild its fishing fleet, but the reality has been neglect. With this deal we have lost the opportunity to enhance a part of our economy and our culture. 

2. Metrocentrism and the Policy Class 

"Metro centric" is a pretty damning term. It means policy is written by and for the urban elite, while regional voices like Grimsby, Hull or Fleetwood are excluded or simply forgotten.

The Whitehall bubble buys sardines from Lisbon, while British boats rot in harbour.

3. The Silent Acquiescence of the Voter

“The ordinary voters acquiesce” ... sad and tragic. society has become so fragmented that one community cares a little for another. Have we lost a sense of national identity?

Is there any anger, any fight, left in us? Or is it just complacency and resignation? We take to the streets, we are kettled and imprisoned. Where is the popular uprising? For that matter, where is the local reinvention? For all the independent press we listen to, where are the alternative political groups - what is the fishing lobby doing? Is Farage our only hope? Where are the bottom up alternative visions?

4. Strategic Industry, Wasted Opportunity 

Fishing it is a national asset and could be a strategic national industry if properly mapped into a national strategy. Perhaps no longer economically very significant, but these arenot just strategic assets, rhey are our border communities. 

The govt should be thinking about job creation and revitalisation in coastal communities.... Not just fishing, but hospitality and tourism, and I'm sure there are many other industries peculiar to the coast. 

Fishing also falls under the remit of domestic food security. There's work in processing, canning, and export value-add supply chains.... It's a huge industry in southeast asia, for example, and it could be in uk waters, if they were kept for uk-registered fishing vessels, contributing to our own food security and the balance of payments surplus.

What does our government do? They put it on the table as a bargaining chip in EU trade negotiations.

5. Conclusion: A Betrayal of Place

Anyone who looks at this more closely would feel a genuine sense of betrayal.

An island nation that has abandoned the sea is a nation that has lost a policy battle, or never had one; but more importantly, it's a nation that has lost an entire layer of its cultural and economic identity, given away in exchange for elite interests in major industries. This is an abandonment and neglect of a community, one amongst many that make up the UK people.

What can we do about it? Seemingly nothing except for a few shouty headlines in last week's papers. It is so obviously disrespectful of democracy and the interest of the British people. We are left numbed into inaction, despondent, resigned to the neglect and betrayal. What can we do about this?

In conclusion, the British coast is not a quaint tourist trail. It’s a national asset - and a strategic blind spot. If we can't build policy for our periphery, we will lose the centre too.

Metrocentrism is not just lazy. It’s lethal.

Friday, 23 May 2025

HOW THE ESTABLISHMENT RETAINS CONTROL OVER THE MAINSTREAM MEDIA

23 May 2025

1. What Is the DSMA Security Committee?

The DSMA (Defence and Security Media Advisory) Committee is a quiet yet powerful institution within the British establishment. Its primary role is to regulate what information relating to national security is released through the media. Though little discussed in public, its existence sits at the heart of Britain’s unique system of soft censorship, a voluntary pact between the state and the press.

2. A Voluntary but Potent System

The Committee’s workings are based on cooperation rather than law. It does not enforce rules by court order or statute. Instead, it relies on mutual understanding and respect between media editors and state officials. This understanding is formalised through DSMA Notices - formerly known as D-Notices. These are official communications sent to news editors requesting that certain information not be published, especially if it relates to military operations, intelligence activities, or the security services.

3. Who Sits on the Committee?

The DSMA Committee is chaired by a senior civil servant from the Ministry of Defence and includes representatives from MI5, MI6, GCHQ, the Cabinet Office, and the editors of major British newspapers and broadcasters. Its meetings are confidential. It reports to the Cabinet Secretary and operates from within the heart of Whitehall. Despite its discreet profile, its influence is substantial.

4. The Power of the DSMA Notice

DSMA Notices are not legally binding - but they are almost always respected. Editors will rarely defy them. Over the years, these notices have been used to restrict reporting on everything from the activities of special forces in the Middle East to intelligence operations in Russia and cyber campaigns against Iran. The system depends on trust: editors are shown classified material on the understanding that they will not publish it.

5. Critics and Defenders

Critics argue the system amounts to a form of self-censorship, with national security used as a convenient pretext to withhold politically embarrassing information. Others point out that, in an age of social media and decentralised information, the DSMA system is quaint and outdated. Defenders, however, maintain that it is a civilised arrangement - one that balances press freedom with the need to protect lives and operations.

This is not the only way controlling the MSM output of course.

6. Recent Controversies and Questions

The DSMA Committee came under quiet scrutiny in late 2023 when rumours emerged about its involvement in suppressing details of British military support to Israel in Gaza and Lebanon. While mainstream media said little, alternative channels claimed a DSMA Notice had been issued. Yet, curiously, in other sensitive cases - such as recent criminal allegations involving high-profile figures - the same machinery appears silent. Why some stories are silenced while others leak freely remains a matter of speculation.

7. A Final Thought

The British way of handling state secrets relies not on compulsion, but on discretion. The DSMA Committee is both a symbol of that tradition and a reminder of its risks. In a free society, any system that restrains the flow of information must be watched carefully - even, or especially, if it operates without visible force.

STARMER, RENT BOYS, MI5 MI6 CONFECTION

23 May 2025

Where did the info these rent boys used to attack Starmer's property come from?

Surely, these arson attacks should be called terrorist attacks?

Stanislav is according to Star Now a rent boy, "male model", his own profile says so.

The incidents are widely reported, but why is there no detail? Like, who was this trio working for?

Ali is his clothing manager. (He sits in the House of Lords.) Is this why Ali's been linked to the rent boys?

DSMA Cttee is MI5 and MI6 staffed. They tell the media what they can and cannot report on, and issue D-notices. The MoM from their last meeting in November says how they successfully shut down a story which told of the British forces that are working in Gaza and Lebanon with the IDF. So they could have shut down this rent boy story, but why didn't they, or why haven't they?

Stanislav was arrested leaving the country. Where was he going?

The Czech government back in the nineteen eighties, so forty years ago, labeled him as a British asset. Is Starmer an MI5 / MI6 agent?

Having neutralised the Corbyn left of the Labour Party, having renegotiated Brexit and having obtained wide support in the Labour PLP for ongoing war in Ukraine; but having descended in the polls and lost all credibility, and now, being so tied to the Ukraine war, which surely the UK will want to get out of following the US departure; hasn't Starmer become a useless non-performing asset and is this the way "his handlers" in the security services are getting rid of him?

He is a stiff and feeling-less human being - could this be because he is in fact just a wooden puppet of the establishment, operating through the security services?

So anyway, in conclusion, it looks like he has delivered on his missions to the security services, that this has affected his popularity and credibility to the point where he can no longer govern, and so is this little carefully-managed / sanitised episode the way of giving him the heave-ho? And if so, who is next? Would it be too much of a stretch to imagine that Farage could be brought into the security services, perhaps through his admiration for Trump?

Wednesday, 21 May 2025

THE UNITED SELF

2 Aug 2022



1. Introduction

- The video "Personality, Modernity, and the Storied Self" explores the evolution of self and identity in modern times.
- Modernity, especially in the West, includes capitalism, markets, democracy, nation-states, and the dominance of science and technology.

2. Characteristics of Modern Western Peoples

- Scepticism Towards Tradition: Preference for data-driven approaches over traditional religious or authoritative beliefs.
- Coherent Self: Challenges in maintaining a consistent sense of self across different times and contexts, particularly in diverse societies.
- Emphasis on Uniqueness: Balancing the desire to be unique with the need for connection.

3. Six Characteristics of the Modern Self

- Work in Progress: The self is viewed as an ongoing project, continually improving and adapting.
- Agency: Individuals now have the responsibility to define their own identities and roles, unlike pre-modern times.
- Multi-layered and Deep: Modern individuals juggle multiple, overlapping roles, leading to a complex self-discovery process.
- Self-Development: Lifelong process involving various phases and evolving roles, requiring continual self-adaptation.
- Coherence: Maintaining a coherent narrative across different life phases to construct a unified identity.
- Connection and Pure Relationship: Striving for authentic, self-actualising relationships that fulfill personal needs and desires.

4. Conclusion

- The modern self is a project of self-discovery, adaptation, and improvement.
- It involves seeking uniqueness, connectedness, and authenticity through various life stages and relationships.

Glossary of Terms:

- Modernity: The quality or condition of being modern, characterized by changes brought about by the industrial revolution and beyond.
- Self-actualisation: The realisation or fulfillment of one's talents and potentialities, considered as a drive or need present in everyone.

References:

1. "Personality, Modernity, and the Storied Self," YouTube, August 2022.
2. "Impact of Modernity on Identity," Sociological Review.

Reading

self and identity - a biography of our self - who we are - our identity

https://youtu.be/ZD52aZ5Jh7A

"personality modernity and the storied self"

modern

modernity means modern times. Especially in the West ("The West" by this time in the 21st century includes many non Western countries like South Korea or Japan, according to the following framework...).

we have to make a difference between pre modern or pre-industrial times and times since the industrial revolution in the 18th and 19th centuries.

what makes our time "modern" is: capitalism, markets, democracy, the nation-state, the dominance of Science and Technology.

drivers

and we should look at social, political and economic changes as causing, driving, the changes to our idea of self, of who we are.

characteristics of peoples living in modern Western times

1. a scepticism towards religion and other traditional sources of authority and a preference instead for a data-driven approach based on science, reasoning, objectivity, evidence, positivism etc ... a belief that if we take an evidence-based approach this will lead to improvement in our world

2. difficulty in keeping a coherent sense of one's modern self across the past, present and future and across even yesterday compared to today or tomorrow. Sense of self -read "who we are", "identity".

also keeping up that coherence or integrity across the different roles and contexts and situations that we operate in. Transactional view of who we are - we are what we do.

it's especially challenging for people living in societies with a lot of diversity or to put it another way, a low homogeneity.

For example, societies with different ethnic and religious mixes.

3. there's also more emphasis on our uniqueness rather than on conformity with the tribe or group and this is challenging because at the same time as we seek to be different we also seek to remain connected.

Six characteristics of the modern self

1. work in progress. we are all a work in progress, we are a project we are working on, the "I" is forever improving a "Me". it can be thought of as a reflexive project reflexive because we are turned towards our self we are changing our self.

this is modern because compare with pre modern times where a person was given a role or a position or a post and told to get on with it. they were not responsible for creating a unique self or innovating and updating a persona.

2. Agency. in pre-modern times it was the king, or the church or mosque, or the tribe that assigned us a role; but today, we have to work out our own identity and roles in a more day-to-day context of family and work and friends.

3. multi-layered and deep. compare the simple role that Hindu people in Bali have and live by, compare that with the situation in which modern man or woman find themselves. A modern person has multiple roles and overlapping roles all depending on the context and the person and so on and this complexity creates a challenge to know who we are and is why many people are forever on a voyage of self-discovery and why self-help groups are so popular

so before it was the church or mosque that was a moral authority, but these days, in the absence of that moral authority, it is us, we ourselves, who decide our own beliefs and values and and finally are our own identity and it is the search for this authentic identity that drives the projects to modernise ourselves

4. self development. we saw in the points above that the self is a project, for which we are responsible, and this project of ours is a voyage of self-discovery, adaption and improvement - a work in progress. now consider this as a series of projects, over the longer life that we live.

At the start of the 20th century, the average lifespan was maybe 50 years, but by the end it had reached 75 years and splits into different phases.

We go through different phases in that time span and so we have evolving roles and contexts and thus projects with different objectives for our self, as we mature and develop.

5. Coherence. we go from childhood to adolescence to young adulthood to middle age to old age or maybe more phases than that ("the seven ages of man") and we have different roles and contexts to adapt to that we also look for a coherence across all those phases so that we have a story to tell, a narrative, which stitches everything together and brings us one coherent picture of who we are.

this coherent narrative is our auto-biography and it's really important, this sense of coherence across the different phases of our life, because it's how we construct our idea of who we are, in other words our identity, our sense of self

6 connection and the "pure relationship". the 6th and final characteristic of modern selves is that two separate selves can connect to each other to form what we all look for, which is a pure or perfect relationship, in terms of connectedness, love and intimacy.

Modern love is not something dictated to us by our parents or arranged by the group or determined by the church or mosque, it is something we choose for ourselves in order to fulfil our deepest needs and desires, needs and desires that we have defined and which are part of our uniqueness.

the two persons, each true and authentic to themself, have a relationship which is honest and open and flexible and negotiable between the two of them. The focus is on both parties achieving what you might call self-actualisation or self-transcendence. Of course, anyone who's been in a modern romantic relationship knows that this is a pure fiction! ... but nonetheless it is an ideal and a vision that we can aim for.

Summary. we saw in the points above that the self is a project about constructing our sense of identity, who we are. We are responsible for this project. It is a voyage of self-discovery, adaption and improvement - a work in progress seeking uniqueness, connectedness and authenticity. It is a series of projects, over the longer life that we live. Like ying and yang, we seek union with another like-minded soul.



STARMER IS MANAGING BETWEEN SUPERIOR EXTERNAL FORCES, HE IS NOT GOVERNING

21 May 2025

How a cautious centrist UK PM governs without vision, puppet to Washington, the markets, and yesterday’s alliances

Regretfully, I see our Prime Minister as a little Sir Echo to Washington. No matter the spin, we know the central aim of US foreign policy remains the maintenance of American hegemony, primarily over its own allies, and then by any means necessary to contain everyone else. 

A lot of strategic positions in US foreign policy circles are filled by Russian and Eastern European émigrés, fleeing pogroms and holocaust, many of them with strong Israeli ties, even passport holders, and that translates into prioritising Greater Israel over the West or MAGA interests. That’s the power-Politics side of it.

On the Economic front, Starmer fits neatly into the comfort zone of the bond vigilantes - those large institutional investors like hedge funds, pension funds, insurers, sovereign wealth funds, who will dump government bonds and shift capital across borders the moment they sense fiscal or monetary policy is becoming "irresponsible". 

What does “irresponsible” mean in their terms? Anything that threatens the real returns on the bonds they've bought: inflation, currency debasement, or failure to present a credible fiscal anchor.

When they sell, bond yields rise. Interest payments go up. Governments then have to borrow - more likely at the short end, as our govts seem to have lost control over the longer end - just to pay the interest on the debt - monetising debt, in effect. Vigilantes demand repayment without inflation or currency collapse. If you don’t give them austerity, they’ll give you capital flight. And Starmer, to be fair, admits as much, he says he's in their hands.

Is this a "radical conspiracy" theory? Hardly. Just look at what they do. Take Starmer’s choices. He’s clearly not operating according to principle or national interest - it’s managerial centrism: gently floating wherever the “centre ground” drifts. And that centre ground is now set by the likes of Macron, Merz, Zelensky... with all of them marching to the beat of Washington’s neocon drum.

The mainstream media sells optics, not substance. Their job is to present Starmer as safe and sensible, as someone to reassure the markets and foreign allies. But behind that gloss, the thinking public sees no vision, no princiole, just opportunism and vagueness.... we feel deserted, betrayed, no one in positions of responsibility is watching out for us.

What’s more, Britain seems like a spent force, we’re not shaping the world around us, ok, not even looking after our own people and interests. We’re just navigating between superior powers, reacting instead of leading, bureaucratically managing the process. It's rather pathetic isn't it.

Why isn’t the UK, for example, as europe's leading military power after ukraine, spearheading a European defence framework? Why aren’t we pulling the EU into our orbit, or at least reshaping it post-Brexit? There’s real diplomatic space here and Starmer just folds, because it’s easier, he can enjoy untroubled relations with his homologues even if he is extremely unpopular with his electorate.

So yes, I think there’s a huge and growing gap between the state-aligned "narrative" and what any informed public can see for themselves. With each contradiction and each compromised position and those bureaucratic actions completely lacking in mandate.

If you want to judge him fairly, look at his moves on Russia, Palestine, China, and now Kashmir. There’s no principle here. No strategic British interest being served. Just alignment for the sake of convenience....and career ... At great sadness and cost to the poor peoples concerned.

And the irony is that while Starmer clings to the old Atlantic consensus, Trump may now be taking serious time to understand Putin’s side of the conflict, which means the next US turn could leave Starmer, and much of Europe, isolated and exposed. In the unlikely event that America pulls out of NATO, Europe would be left without military protection, without cheap resources and without a markets for its goods and services. How come the EU doesn't see this?

Thursday, 15 May 2025

COMPARING TREATMENT OF CASH ON TRADING PLATFORM V. ETF PLATFORM

15 May 2025

I can see why you're interested in CSH2.L. It's because it's an ETF, and so is available on your ETF platform, for your spare cash.

Trading-cash is very slightly better - it pays 4.6% AER at the moment, compared with from what I can work out CSH2 YTD 1.6% > 4.36% AER.

The T cash is instantly liquid - instant buy or sell, 24/7. Plus, there's no spread and no risk and no volatility and no fee ... it is 100% certain, if you like.

But CSH2 is almost the same - it pays a squinch less, there'll be tiny volatility and bid/offer spread, there is that 0.07% fee, you can only buy sell during trading hours... I mean when the exchange is open.

A squinchissimal advantage of CSH2 is that if the interest rates drop, it's likely to lag slightly aswhere T-cash's interest rate changes immediately.

In sum, there's pretty much no difference between them, but for you, it's important because your  ETF platform doesn't offer interest on cash, so it's CSH2 or nothin.

[End]

Wednesday, 14 May 2025

NO-RULES S E ASIA

Indonesian culture as seen through the eyes of a young German tourist


1. Introduction

Many foreigners are attracted to Indonesia, not only because of its beautiful natural geography, but also because of its friendly, happy, relaxed and open people. But where does such an attitude to life actually come from?

A French thinker named Emmanuel Todd has an interesting theory: the way the family is organised in a region could explain why the culture, religion, and even politics in that region developed as they did. He called Indonesia and Southeast Asia a region with a family system “without fixed rules” – flexible, tolerant, and difficult to dictate to by harsh ideologies or rigid rules.

This post attempts to explain Todd’s thinking and show how his views can help us understand the distinctive characteristics of Indonesian society, including a personal religious way, a relaxed lifestyle, and compromising politics.


 


2. Video Reference: “Why Indonesian Girls”

The video linked to above was made by a German tourist visiting Yogyakarta, where he records a walk down the main street on a busy day. This is a young man and the viewers' attention is drawn to his views on Indonesian girls, of course, but what’s interesting is how this also fits with Emmanuel Todd’s ideas on Southeast Asian people and culture more broadly.

So what does Todd say that might explain the particular perceptions of this tourist - perceptions that, like it or not, are a key driver of tourism to Southeast Asia?


3. Emmanuel Todd’s Theory and the Logic Behind a “No Rules” Southeast Asia

Todd sets out to explain why different societies develop different political and ideological systems. Why some become authoritarian regimes, some lean toward socialism or communism, while others develop highly individualist cultures. Some are collectivist. Some become bottom-up liberal democracies. Others remain deeply hierarchical and respectful of authority.

He begins with the family. The core insight is this: the values and social norms you absorb in your family life – your attitude to authority, hierarchy, gender, individual freedom, equality – go on to shape the wider values of your society. The ways families raise children, resolve disputes, manage inheritance, select marriage partners, and organise power gradually become internalised and unquestioned. They spread across villages and generations. This forms the deep logic of how societies come to think as one about power, freedom, responsibility, and the good life. It becomes their culture.

What begins in the family ends up embedded in the laws, institutions, and ideologies of society. These inherited values shape what is considered acceptable behaviour, and what is not.

If you're with me so far, you’ll see we're tracing how a society is organised - not by the ideas of great men, but by tracking the origin of its values, from the family unit up to the wider institutions. From family decisions such as who inherits, who commands, whether men and women are equal, who decides who marries whom and when – to the laws, norms, and governing spirit of a people.

Over time, patterns of authority and inheritance, drawn from experience, get codified into law, cultural identity, and political ideology. Geography, history and religion all play a part, but for Todd, the family is the silent engine room of political culture.


4. The “No Rules” Family and the Case of Southeast Asia

Among the six major family types that Todd identifies, one stands out as specific to Southeast Asia. He calls it the “no rules” family system. You find it in Thailand, Vietnam, Cambodia, and parts of Indonesia and Burma.

So what does “no rules” mean? It refers to a family system without fixed rules for inheritance – neither strictly equal nor strictly hierarchical. There are no rigid authority structures within the household. There’s no clear preference for primogeniture (eldest child inherits everything) or equal division. Patriarchy is weak. Matriarchy is weak. Kinship ties are loose. Even the boundaries of family – who counts as family, who one can marry – are more fluid than in other parts of the world.

Authority is flexible. Inheritance is negotiated, often according to need. Extended family may matter, but it isn’t formalised into binding obligations. If a newly married man joins the household of his wife, that can the signal war. But when the woman joins the man's household, that brings peace. Most importantly, these societies display high levels of tolerance and adaptability. They absorb external influences - from Dutch or French colonialism, globalisation, or religious pluralism - without resentment or seeing them as threats. They forgive excesses.

This explains why political systems in Southeast Asia tend to avoid rigid ideologies. Instead of socialism or authoritarianism, you often find personalist rule (a cult of personality), clientelism (politics built on let's say reciprocal ties and favours), or soft hierarchies (governance through discussion and consensus, "majlis").

Indonesia, for example, firmly rejected communism in the 1960s. Its political culture simply does not support strong collective ideologies. Vietnam's best friend is now America and Indonesians genuinely hold no grudge against Holland.

Religions in the region reinforce this flexibility. Theravāda Buddhism, for instance, emphasises individual responsibility and tolerance over legalism or strict morality. Religion, like politics, is personal, not dogmatic.


5. Where Indonesia Fits

Indonesia, to some degree, fits this “no rules” model. In Java, Bali, Sulawesi, and other regions, traditional family structures are not strongly hierarchical. Inheritance is often decided informally. Authority in the household may be shared, or even female-led. Children stay at home after marriage to extend the family - you see the three-storey Asian house everywhere. The Minangkabau of West Sumatra, another example, are matrilineal.

These open family systems naturally foster pragmatism, cultural flexibility, and tolerance. They resist – often silently or unconsciously – rigid ideologies and moral absolutes. They adapt. They absorb. They compromise. They prioritise personal relationships over legal structures. Todd’s “no rules” model fits very well.


6. But Not All of Indonesia Follows This Pattern

Indonesia is vast and diverse – a mosaic of islands, peoples, languages and customs. While some regions follow the “no rules” model, others do not.

In Aceh, the first region to be converted, and in parts of Java, patriarchal and centralised family structures are more common, especially where Islamic law is influential. In tribal or remote areas such as among the Dayak of Kalimantan or Papuan communities, kinship rules are tighter and authority is more communally enforced by elders.

These systems resemble Todd’s “community family” or even “endogamous family” models, where local tradition and lineage take precedence.

So Indonesia cannot be reduced to one single model. It is not monolithic. It is a mosaic – some parts flexible, some rigid; some hierarchical, others egalitarian.


7. Todd’s Broader Implication

Todd does not write much about Indonesia in his early work, but in later mappings he places it in the broader Southeast Asian “no rules” zone.

His core thesis is striking: Islam came to a region without a strong native family ideology. As a result, in Indonesia, Islam remained personal and spiritual. It never embedded itself in the political or legal structure aswhere in the Arab or Iranian world it emerged from the family structure.

In short, there was no rigid social structure for Islam to lock into.


8. Glossary of Key Terms

Authority: The degree of hierarchy or control exercised by elders or parents within the family.

Inheritance Rules: Whether property is passed down equally, given to the eldest, or negotiated informally.

Key Values: The cultural lessons taught in childhood – equality, obedience, independence, tolerance, respect.

Political Outcome: The kind of political system (liberal, authoritarian, clientelist, collectivist) that tends to arise from these embedded family values.


9. Background Reading

Todd, Emmanuel (1985). The Explanation of Ideology: Family Structures and Social Systems. Basil Blackwell.
Todd, Emmanuel (1990). L’Invention de l’Europe. Éditions du Seuil.
Todd, Emmanuel (2002). After the Empire: The Breakdown of the American Order. Columbia University Press.
Le Bras, Hervé & Todd, Emmanuel (2013). Le Mystère Français. Éditions du Seuil.
Barber, Benjamin R. (1996). Jihad vs. McWorld. Ballantine Books.
Mulder, Niels (2000). Inside Southeast Asia: Religion, Everyday Life, Cultural Change. Silkworm Books.
Geertz, Clifford (1960). The Religion of Java. University of Chicago Press.
Woodward, Mark R. (1989). Islam in Java: Normative Piety and Mysticism in the Sultanate of Yogyakarta. University of Arizona Press.
Wikan, Unni (1990). Managing Turbulent Hearts: A Balinese Formula for Living. University of Chicago Press.
Emmanuel Todd – Public Interviews and Lectures (YouTube, France Culture, ARTE).


Indonesian version

Here is your complete Indonesian version of the blog post in LITA+ style, cleanly structured and ready to paste into your blog:


1. Pengantar

Banyak orang asing tertarik dengan Indonesia, bukan hanya karena keindahan alamnya, tetapi juga karena masyarakatnya yang ramah, santai, dan terbuka. Tapi dari mana sebenarnya sikap hidup seperti itu berasal?

Seorang pemikir asal Prancis bernama Emmanuel Todd punya teori yang menarik: cara keluarga diorganisasikan di suatu wilayah dapat menjelaskan bagaimana budaya, agama, bahkan politik di wilayah itu berkembang. Ia menyebut Indonesia dan Asia Tenggara sebagai wilayah dengan sistem keluarga “tanpa aturan tetap” – fleksibel, toleran, dan sulit untuk didikte oleh ideologi keras atau aturan yang kaku.

Tulisan ini mencoba menjelaskan pemikiran Todd dan menunjukkan bagaimana pandangannya dapat membantu kita memahami ciri khas masyarakat Indonesia: cara beragama yang personal, gaya hidup yang rileks, dan budaya politik yang kompromistis.


2. Video Rujukan: “Mengapa Gadis Indonesia?”

Ini adalah video buatan seorang turis Jerman yang berkunjung ke Yogyakarta, merekam dirinya berjalan di jalan utama yang ramai. Fokusnya, tentu saja, pada pandangannya tentang gadis-gadis Indonesia. Namun menariknya, pandangan ini sesuai dengan gagasan Emmanuel Todd tentang masyarakat dan budaya Asia Tenggara secara keseluruhan.

Jadi, apa yang dikatakan Todd yang mungkin bisa menjelaskan persepsi si turis ini – persepsi yang, suka atau tidak, menjadi salah satu pendorong pariwisata ke Asia Tenggara?


3. Teori Emmanuel Todd dan Logika di Balik Asia Tenggara “Tanpa Aturan”

Todd ingin menjelaskan mengapa berbagai masyarakat di dunia berkembang menjadi sistem politik dan ideologi yang berbeda. Mengapa ada yang menjadi otoriter, ada yang cenderung ke sosialisme atau komunisme, sementara yang lain menjadi sangat individualis atau sangat kolektivis. Ada yang menjadi demokrasi liberal dari bawah ke atas, ada pula yang sangat hierarkis.

Ia memulai dari keluarga. Inti pemikirannya adalah: nilai dan norma sosial yang diserap seseorang di dalam keluarga – sikap terhadap otoritas, hierarki, kebebasan individu, dan kesetaraan – menjadi nilai-nilai yang akan membentuk masyarakat secara luas.

Cara keluarga membesarkan anak, menyelesaikan konflik, mengatur warisan, memilih pasangan, dan menyusun kekuasaan, semuanya secara perlahan menjadi kebiasaan yang diterima tanpa pertanyaan. Nilai-nilai ini menyebar ke desa-desa dan lintas generasi, membentuk logika dasar masyarakat tentang kekuasaan, kebebasan, tanggung jawab, dan arti hidup yang baik. Nilai-nilai inilah yang akhirnya membentuk budaya mereka.

Apa yang bermula dalam keluarga akan tertanam dalam hukum, institusi, dan ideologi masyarakat. Nilai-nilai itu menentukan perilaku seperti apa yang dianggap dapat diterima dan mana yang tidak.

Jika Anda mengikuti sejauh ini, kita sedang melacak bagaimana masyarakat terbentuk – dengan menelusuri asal-usul nilai-nilai dari unit keluarga menuju sistem sosial yang lebih luas. Dari pertanyaan seperti siapa yang mewarisi, siapa yang memimpin, apakah laki-laki dan perempuan setara, siapa yang memutuskan pernikahan dan kapan anak harus meninggalkan rumah – menuju hukum, norma sosial, dan semangat pemerintahan sebuah masyarakat.

Pola otoritas dan aturan warisan pada akhirnya membentuk pemahaman tentang kekuasaan, hak, dan kewajiban. Dalam jangka panjang, semua itu akan tercermin dalam ideologi, identitas budaya, dan sistem hukum. Geografi, sejarah, dan agama tentu turut berperan – tetapi bagi Todd, keluarga adalah mesin tersembunyi dari budaya politik.


4. Keluarga “Tanpa Aturan” dan Kasus Asia Tenggara

Dari enam tipe keluarga utama yang diidentifikasi oleh Emmanuel Todd, satu tipe yang unik berasal dari Asia Tenggara. Ia menyebutnya sistem keluarga “tanpa aturan tetap”. Model ini ditemukan di Thailand, Vietnam, Kamboja, serta sebagian wilayah Indonesia dan Myanmar.

Apa arti dari “tanpa aturan”? Ini berarti sistem keluarga yang tidak memiliki aturan pasti tentang warisan – tidak sepenuhnya setara, tapi juga tidak hierarkis. Tidak ada struktur otoritas yang kaku dalam rumah tangga. Tidak ada preferensi pasti apakah anak sulung mewarisi segalanya ataukah warisan dibagi rata. Patriarki lemah. Matriarki lemah. Ikatan kekerabatan longgar. Bahkan pertanyaan seperti “siapa yang dianggap keluarga” atau “siapa yang boleh dinikahi” jauh lebih fleksibel dibandingkan dengan budaya lain.

Otoritas dalam keluarga bersifat fleksibel. Warisan dinegosiasikan berdasarkan kebutuhan. Keluarga besar tetap penting, tetapi tidak terikat pada aturan baku. Yang paling penting: masyarakat-masyarakat ini menunjukkan tingkat toleransi dan kemampuan beradaptasi yang sangat tinggi.

Mereka menyerap pengaruh luar – kolonialisme Belanda, globalisasi, pluralisme agama – tanpa menganggapnya sebagai ancaman.

Fleksibilitas ini menjelaskan mengapa politik Asia Tenggara cenderung tidak menyukai ideologi kaku. Bukan sosialisme atau otoritarianisme yang muncul, melainkan sistem personalistik (berbasis tokoh), klientelisme (hubungan timbal balik dengan kekuasaan luar), atau hierarki lunak (konsensus dan musyawarah).

Indonesia, misalnya, menolak komunisme secara tegas pada 1960-an. Budaya politik Indonesia tidak cocok dengan ideologi kolektif yang kuat.

Agama pun mengikuti pola ini. Buddhisme Theravāda, misalnya, menekankan tanggung jawab individu dan toleransi daripada legalisme atau aturan moral yang kaku. Agama, seperti halnya politik, bersifat pribadi – bukan dogmatis.


5. Di Mana Posisi Indonesia?

Sebagian besar wilayah Indonesia sesuai dengan pola “tanpa aturan tetap” ini. Di Jawa, Bali, Sulawesi, dan wilayah lainnya, struktur keluarga tradisional tidak bersifat sangat hierarkis. Warisan biasanya diputuskan secara informal. Otoritas dalam rumah bisa dibagi, atau bahkan dipimpin oleh perempuan. Contoh yang paling terkenal adalah masyarakat Minangkabau di Sumatera Barat yang menganut sistem matrilineal.

Sistem keluarga yang terbuka ini menghasilkan pragmatisme, keterbukaan budaya, dan toleransi terhadap perbedaan. Masyarakat seperti ini – secara diam-diam atau tidak sadar – menolak dogma. Mereka beradaptasi. Mereka menyerap. Mereka berkompromi. Mereka memprioritaskan hubungan personal daripada struktur formal. Todd menyebut ini sebagai model keluarga “tanpa aturan tetap”.


6. Tapi Tidak Semua Wilayah Indonesia Sama

Indonesia adalah negara yang sangat beragam – sekumpulan pulau, bahasa, dan budaya yang membentuk satu kesatuan. Sementara banyak wilayah sesuai dengan pola fleksibel tadi, ada juga yang berbeda.

Di Aceh dan sebagian Jawa, terdapat struktur keluarga yang lebih patriarkal dan terpusat – terutama di daerah yang terpengaruh oleh hukum Islam. Di wilayah-wilayah terpencil seperti Dayak di Kalimantan atau komunitas Papua di bagian timur, terdapat aturan kekerabatan yang lebih ketat dan otoritas komunitas yang dijalankan oleh tetua adat.

Struktur seperti ini lebih mirip dengan model “keluarga komunitas” atau bahkan “keluarga endogami” menurut Todd – di mana tradisi lokal dan garis keturunan lebih ditekankan.

Jadi, Indonesia tidak bisa dipahami hanya dengan satu model keluarga saja. Ia bukan sesuatu yang seragam, melainkan mosaik – sebagian fleksibel, sebagian kaku; sebagian hierarkis, sebagian egaliter.


7. Implikasi yang Lebih Luas Menurut Todd

Todd tidak banyak menulis tentang Indonesia dalam karya awalnya. Namun dalam pemetaan dan analisisnya yang lebih baru, ia memasukkan Indonesia ke dalam zona “tanpa aturan tetap” di Asia Tenggara.

Gagasan utamanya cukup mengejutkan: Islam datang ke wilayah yang tidak memiliki ideologi keluarga yang kuat. Hasilnya, Islam di Indonesia tetap bersifat pribadi dan spiritual – ia tidak membentuk sistem politik atau hukum seperti yang terjadi di dunia Arab atau Iran.

Singkatnya, tidak ada struktur sosial yang kaku di Indonesia yang dapat dikunci oleh Islam.


8. Glosarium Istilah Kunci

Otoritas: Tingkat hierarki atau kontrol yang dijalankan oleh orang tua atau tetua dalam keluarga.
Aturan Warisan: Apakah harta diwariskan secara merata, ke anak sulung, atau berdasarkan negosiasi.
Nilai-Nilai Kunci: Pelajaran masa kecil yang membentuk budaya – kesetaraan, ketaatan, kebebasan, toleransi, penghormatan.
Dampak Politik: Jenis sistem politik (liberal, otoriter, klientelis, kolektivis) yang cenderung muncul dari nilai-nilai yang tertanam dalam keluarga.


9. Bacaan Latar Belakang

Todd, Emmanuel (1985). The Explanation of Ideology: Family Structures and Social Systems. Basil Blackwell.
Todd, Emmanuel (1990). L’Invention de l’Europe. Éditions du Seuil.
Todd, Emmanuel (2002). After the Empire: The Breakdown of the American Order. Columbia University Press.
Le Bras, Hervé & Todd, Emmanuel (2013). Le Mystère Français. Éditions du Seuil.
Barber, Benjamin R. (1996). Jihad vs. McWorld. Ballantine Books.
Mulder, Niels (2000). Inside Southeast Asia: Religion, Everyday Life, Cultural Change. Silkworm Books.
Geertz, Clifford (1960). The Religion of Java. University of Chicago Press.
Woodward, Mark R. (1989). Islam in Java: Normative Piety and Mysticism in the Sultanate of Yogyakarta. University of Arizona Press.
Wikan, Unni (1990). Managing Turbulent Hearts: A Balinese Formula for Living. University of Chicago Press.
Emmanuel Todd – Wawancara dan Kuliah Umum Publik (YouTube, France Culture, ARTE).


[End]


THIS IS NOT OUR WAR

Is This Really *Our* War? The View from Below

As the Ukraine war grinds on, it’s increasingly clear that Europe’s political class committed to a long conflict with Russia. From Berlin to Brussels and London, our leaders speak with one voice: this is about security, sovereignty, values, and defending the European Order.

But what if you step outside the corridors of power? What if you ask the builders, bakers, teachers, engineers, retirees - the real citizens of Europe? Here’s how the story sounds when the official line meets street-level common sense - "the popular vote" says what?.


1. “This is about defending sovereignty and borders”

The official line: Russia violated Ukraine’s territorial integrity. We must stand against aggression. If we don’t draw the line in Ukraine, no one is safe, they'll get us.

The popular vote: “Russia had been warning for decades that Ukraine was the gateway through which previous invasions had passed and that NATO expansion threatened its security, its existence even. Where was official concern for sovereignty in Iraq? Libya? Kosovo? ... so why in Ukraine? If borders are sacred, why did NATO break up Yugoslavia? The West has selectively respected sovereignty for decades. Russia had no choice but to follow-through on Ukrainian neutrality. "


2. “We are defending European values – democracy, freedom, rule of law”

The official line: Ukraine is fighting for the values we hold dear. Europe must stand united against authoritarianism.

The popular vote: “Ukraine is hardly a democracy. The regime in Kiev bans political parties, censors the media, even shuts down the church, and promotes fascist militias like Azov? So this isn’t about values, it’s about power.”


3. “We must reduce our dependence on Russian energy”

The official line: Dependence on Russia makes Europe vulnerable. We must diversify, even if it costs more.

The popular vote: “Diversify yes, but why replace all cheap Russian gas with overpriced American LNG? Who actually benefits from this ‘independence’? Not the people, we’re paying higher energy bills, watching industries shut down, losing employment and trade, paying out in spiralling inflation.”


4. “Europe must strengthen its defence posture”

The official line: This is a wake-up call. We must spend more on defence and take responsibility for our security.

The popular vote: “You mean we should buy more American weapons - that's not taking responsibility, it's growing dependence! This isn’t about autonomy, it’s about tieing us to Washington. And when did the public get a say?”


5. “Public support is strong. This is a war for all Europeans”

The official line: Opinion polls show support for Ukraine. Citizens understand what’s at stake.

The popular vote: “Support is manufactured, the result of propaganda, misleading the public. The media is one-sided, debate is shut down, dissent and Putin are demonised. If anyone questions the war, they are labelled a Putin apologist. This is not consent, it is coercion.”


Conclusion

From the public’s point of view, the war in Ukraine looks less like a principled stand for values and more like a reckless elite obsession, driven by a groundless fear of Russia, subservience to America, and a refusal to pursue Europe’s national interests in peace and prosperity.

“This isn’t our war,” many would say. “It’s theirs [the elite's]. And we’re paying the price.”

WHAT IS ASSET REVESTING

Asset Revesting: A Smarter Way to Surf the Markets?

1. Introduction – Beyond Buy-and-Hold

  • Most people still follow the model: buy, hold, pray.

  • Chris Vermeulen’s "Asset Revesting" offers a different methodology – one where your capital moves with the momentum of the markets, not against it.

  • It's a dynamic, trend-following strategy rooted in technical analysis and market discipline.

This post explores what Asset Revesting is, how it works, what technical terms underpin it, and – crucially – where its limits lie.

2. What Is Asset Revesting?

  • The core idea: Revest - re-invest - capital into assets with upward momentum.

  • It's neither traditional trading nor passive investing – it’s a hybrid of tactical capital preservation and opportunistic rotation.

  • Vermeulen's philosophy is: stay out of downtrends or use invesrse ETFs, move into uptrends, and be in cash when nothing looks good.

3. Vermeulen’s Rules in Practice

  • Use moving averages and momentum signals to identify entries and exits.

  • Exit when momentum fades – no need for ego, don't listen to media narratives.

  • If nothing meets criteria, sit in cash and wait.

Examples:

  • Rotate out of tech into gold miners if momentum shifts.

  • Move into defensive ETFs like XLP or XLU during corrections.

4. Glossary – Terms You Need to Know

  • Moving Average (MA) – Average price over X days, showing trend.

  • RSI (Relative Strength Index) – Signals if an asset is overbought (>70) or oversold (<30).

  • Overbought/Oversold – Suggests price may reverse.

  • FOMO (Fear of Missing Out) – Emotional mistake of entering late.

  • Support/Resistance – Horizontal zones where price tends to bounce or stall.

  • Volume Analysis – High volume confirms strong moves.

  • Stop-Loss Orders – Predetermined exits to protect capital.

  • Position Sizing – How much capital to risk on a trade.

  • Stage Analysis – Recognises the four market phases: Accumulation, Advance, Distribution, Decline.

5. What Makes Asset Revesting Different?

  • Avoids the dead money trap of holding losers, hoping they'll revive.

  • Emphasises trend-following with strict exit criteria.

  • Encourages unemotional, rule-based decisions.

  • Views cash as a valid position – a radical but important shift.

6. A Word of Caution – Vermeulen’s Own Critique

  • Vermeulen acknowledges the paradox which is that most clients don’t follow through.

  • Why?

    • Lack of discipline.

    • Emotional trading.

    • Misunderstanding technical signals.

“The system works... but only if you do.” - Vermeulen

This isn’t plug-and-play. It demands commitment, learning, and honest self-assessment reviews.

7. Where Asset Revesting Shines

  • Works well in trending environments.

  • Protects capital in downturns.

  • Ideal for active investors who want more control than general passive ETFs but less stress than day trading.

8. Where It Struggles

  • Choppy, sideways markets generate false signals.

  • Requires time and consistency to learn the indicators.

  • Can underperform in explosive rallies if signals lag.

9. Should You Use It?

You might consider it if:

  • You’re frustrated by buy-and-hold.

  • You want structure and do not want pure speculation.

  • You can follow rules and manage your emotions.

You probably shouldn’t if:

  • You want set-and-forget investing.

  • You’re uncomfortable with technical charts.

  • You expect instant gains.

10. Final Thoughts – A System for the Serious

Asset Revesting offers a disciplined, rule-based way to manage risk and stay in tune with the market.

It’s not easy.
It’s not foolproof.
But it’s one of the few strategies that tries to make rational use of price action without the delusion of prediction.

If you’re willing to learn the ropes, the rewards – especially protection in drawdowns – may be worth it.

11. Where to Learn More

Also Recommended:

  • Brent Johnson – Dollar Milkshake Theory

  • Lyn Alden – Macro research

  • Russell Napier – Financial repression & capital controls

  • Luke Gromen – forestfortrees.substack.com

  • Zoltan Pozsar – De-dollarisation frameworks

  • Joseph Wang – Treasury & Fed liquidity dynamics

Monday, 12 May 2025

CARE CRISIS AFTER IMMIGRANT CARE WORKER BAN

12 May 2025

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/social-care-visa-immigration-government-b2749180.html

Bold talk on immigration, but behind the numbers lies a quiet cruelty: the government has chosen to cut the care workforce — the least likely to protest, and the most vital to our dignity.


1. Overview of the Policy Change

The UK government, under Sir Keir Starmer, has introduced major immigration reforms targeting the care sector. At the heart of these changes is the decision to close off the Health and Care Worker visa route to new overseas applicants. This visa had previously allowed care providers to recruit non-UK staff to help fill critical gaps in the workforce. The new policy forms part of Labour's broader ambition to reduce legal migration figures and push employers to hire and train British workers instead. But critics argue this comes at a cost the care system cannot afford.


2. Impact on the Social Care Sector

Social care in the UK is already fragile, marked by chronic understaffing, rising costs, and a long-standing recruitment crisis. In 2023–24 alone, around 105,000 international workers were hired to support adult care — a vital contribution that helped reduce vacancy rates slightly. Removing access to the overseas visa route now risks reversing this progress. The government’s own estimates suggest there will be at least 7,000 fewer care workers. Meanwhile, the broader sector faces over 131,000 vacancies, with projections indicating the need for an additional 540,000 staff by 2040. Providers warn that the gap will be unfillable without continued access to international labour.


3. Reactions from Sector Leaders

Care leaders have sounded the alarm. Dr Jane Townson, head of the Homecare Association, called the policy "a brutal reality", warning that more homecare providers will close. She argues that the government’s failure to consult frontline professionals, coupled with rising employer costs and underfunding, will leave elderly and disabled people without safe and dignified care. Nadra Ahmed of the National Care Association compared the situation to the post-Brexit collapse of care resilience. She even questioned whether the government was deliberately running the sector into the ground in order to pave the way for nationalisation - an unusual criticism aimed at a Labour government.


4. Broader Criticism of Government Strategy

Critics describe the government’s approach as “whack-a-mole” - constantly reacting to crises without long-term strategy. Lucinda Allen of the Health Foundation said the policy demonstrates the government’s “limited understanding” of the care system’s structure, financing, and needs. With no new funding or incentives to recruit domestic workers, and with rising wage and insurance obligations for employers, care companies are left exposed. Unison's general secretary, Christina McAnea, noted that both the NHS and social care would have collapsed years ago without foreign staff, and warned the new policy dangerously ignores this reality.


5. Government’s Justification

Ministers defend the move by pointing to national migration figures and the need to train a domestic workforce. Home Secretary Yvette Cooper said employers should not depend on low-paid migration but instead improve pay and training for local workers. The government expects the changes to cut net migration by 50,000 per year. However, no replacement plan has been offered to address the immediate gap in care provision, nor any funding pledge to support workforce development - raising fears of a looming collapse in services already stretched to the brink.


6. Glossary of Terms

Health and Care Worker Visa: A visa introduced in 2021 allowing non-UK citizens to work in health and social care roles.

Net Migration: The difference between people entering and leaving a country within a given time period.

Whack-a-mole approach: A term for tackling individual problems as they arise without addressing root causes or creating long-term solutions.

Nationalisation: Bringing a sector or industry under state ownership or control, often following the collapse or failure of private provision.


7. Conclusion

The Labour government’s decision to close off the care visa route may achieve a reduction in migration figures, but at what cost? The policy risks accelerating the breakdown of a care system already on its knees. Without urgent investment, planning, or a viable domestic recruitment strategy, providers warn that the elderly and vulnerable will be the ones who suffer. Many now fear this is not just a policy misstep, but a fundamental failure to recognise the scale of the crisis. Social care, once again, appears to be treated as a political afterthought — until it’s your own family who needs it.

8. Policy review: This is a Numbers Cynically Targeting Care Workers

The decision to target care workers within this immigration crackdown appears not just careless, but calculated. Among the various migrant labour categories in the UK - from construction engineers to agricultural pickers, from software developers to domestic staff in wealthy households - the government has chosen to hit one of the least politically powerful groups: overseas care workers.

The rationale is brutally simple. Ministers need to bring down net migration figures. But they must do so in a way that avoids backlash from business leaders, the middle classes, or university sectors. Foreign cleaners in elite homes? Untouchable. Skilled tech workers or logistics drivers? Too essential. But care workers - largely invisible, working-class, often racialised - present a soft target. Their clients, elderly and disabled people, don’t typically march on Westminster.

Yet demand for care is inelastic. When providers shut, when workers are priced out or cut off, people don’t suddenly stop needing help with bathing, mobility, or dementia support. The result is simple economics: prices will rise. What we call “closures” will in practice become a dual-tier system, where the affluent continue receiving care - at a premium - and others are left to struggle, deteriorate, rely on overwhelmed family members or choose to send their elderly offshore to foreign lands with inexpensive high quality care facilities such as are found in Southeast Asia.

This policy, then, is not just short-sighted. It is structurally cruel. It chooses political optics over societal function. It speaks to an underlying cynicism in the current government: win points on migration, even if it means letting the vulnerable slip through the cracks.

The deeper fear, voiced quietly in sector circles, is whether this is part of a longer-term game: allow the private market to collapse under labour scarcity and cost pressure, then Labour intervenes - not out of compassion, but to rebuild it as a nationalised or outsourced hybrid model under stricter state control. Alternatively, the sector gets slowly financilised i.e. slowly falls into the hands of private or quoted equity for example REITS. If true, we are not witnessing a policy failure, but a slow, deliberate dismantling, absent a strategy of compassion for a growing section of the population.


References:

  • The Independent, 11 May 2025
  • Skills for Care, Workforce Reports 2024
  • The Health Foundation
  • Financial Times
  • Unison Press Briefing

[END]

WHO'S KIDDING WHO IN UKRAINE

12 May 2025

US arms stores in Europe to be tferred to Ukraine.

us-approves-german-transfer-of-125-gmlrs-rockets-and-100-patriot-missiles-to-ukraine

Kyiv Post

Both sides know that the failure of negotiations will keep the parties on the battlefields.


1. Introduction: Arms to Ukraine, Again
On 11 May 2025, the United States approved the transfer of 125 GMLRS rockets and 100 Patriot missiles to Ukraine. These weapons are being supplied from U.S. military stockpiles in Germany, not the U.S. mainland, making the logistics swift and efficient. The move fits a broader strategy: fast-tracking arms to Ukraine through already-positioned reserves in Europe, while maintaining the appearance of hands-off diplomacy.


2. Strategic Co-ordination: NATO’s Role and Washington’s Hand
Although Washington continues to style itself as a mediator, this transfer of arms reflects tightly coordinated efforts with NATO partners in Europe. The U.S. is using its forward-deployed munitions to bolster Ukraine’s capabilities while avoiding the political heat of a fresh supply chain from American soil. With European leaders now calling Russia to a cease fire from tiday Monday 12 May, the timing of this arms transfer is provocative. 


3. Russia’s Response: A Mirror Move in Istanbul, all-out war in Ukraine
Has Russia deduced that this is a ruse? In a diplomatic counterstroke mirroring Kiev's, it has invited Ukraine to resume negotiations under the Istanbul framework, proposing a monitored ceasefire to halt fighting, followed by more detailed talks on a long-term European security architecture. Will both sides, with their negotiating teams, make it to Istanbul this Thursday? Rather than de-escalation, the West's ceasefire proposal seems temporary or fraudulent, consisting of a tactical arms dump and re-org of Ukrainian positions. Russia seems to have long anticipated such a tactic as it has built two enormous new armies just outside Ukraine and is now referring to the conflict as all-out war rather than a "special military operation".


4. Gaslighting or Just Gaming?
Does the West truly believe it can gaslight Putin into thinking these weapons transfers represent anything other than preparation for a new phase of war? Equally, one has to wonder whether Putin himself believes that a return to Istanbul would yield a credible pathway to peace.  With NATO escalation on one side and Russia's military expansion on the other, neither party appears genuinely committed to the type of diplomatic breakthrough that could end the war "on just and lasting terms".


5. Enter Trump: The Waiting Game and the MAGA Doctrine
Amid the choreography, Donald Trump remains in the wings, formely campaigning on promises to end foreign wars "in a day", now focused on America’s twin deficits, tariffs and trade deals. He may have supported Ukraine's latest call for a ceasefire, or he may seem to dither, but could it be Trump the businessman watching, alert, ready to seize on passing diplomatic or military opportunities to "stop the dying" as they arise? Whether by pressure, bluff or deal-making, he wants to clear the stage and concentrate on his core project: Make America Great Again.


6. Conclusion: Tactical Peace, Strategic War
This latest transfer of arms from U.S. stores in Europe to that curs'ed country is not a sign of peace, but of pre-positioned escalation. It is tactical diplomacy at best, a sleight of hand that reinforces the battlefield while speaking the language of ceasefire. Behind every Patriot missile and rocket launcher is a wager that the war will continue until one side declares military victory over the other, or until some combination of stronger power and common sense forces a peace. Either way, we are not there yet, the cesspit in the middle of Europe that is Ukraine today, continues to bubble away and it's the same in the world's other hot spots, where we also remain on paths to World War 3.


7. Glossary of Terms

GMLRS - Guided Multiple Launch Rocket System. A long-range precision strike system used by NATO to hit strategic targets far behind enemy lines.

Patriot missilePhased Array Tracking Radar to Intercept on Target. A defensive missile system used to shoot down aircraft, drones and incoming missiles.

NATO - North Atlantic Treaty Organization. A military alliance of Western countries committed to collective defence.

Stockpile - Pre-positioned military reserves, often stored abroad for rapid deployment during conflict.

CeasefireAn agreed pause in combat operations, sometimes temporary, often used to explore negotiations.

Istanbul negotiations - Diplomatic talks hosted in Turkey in 2022, seen as a reference point for possible future peace frameworks.

Gaslighting - Manipulating someone into doubting their reality. In this context, pretending to seek peace while fuelling war.

Sunk costs - Resources already spent and unrecoverable, such as troops, funds, and political investment in a war.

MAGA - Make America Great Again. Trump’s slogan signalling nationalism, anti-globalism, and economic revivalism.

Tactical diplomacy - Short-term, opportunistic foreign policy, used to manipulate the timing and optics of conflict or negotiations.

SMO Special military operation - a precise, tactical non-aggressive mission (contrast with full-scale war) framed as a defensive and necessary intervention under international law required to protect Donbas Russians from a Nazi-style regime in Kiev.

War - a larger existential confrontation between Russia (and its allies?) and America / NATO with increased risks. This prepares  domestic and global audiences for a longer harder struggle with escalation that may require greater military, industrial, and societal mobilisation.


[END]