Saturday, 24 May 2025
GILI MENO TO LOMBOK: A ONE-DAY PEARL INDUSTRY TOUR
FISHING INDUSTRY: UK ELITE BETRAYS THE PEOPLE IN EU TRADE DEAL
That's a powerful and quite sad report! I would file it under the heading *managed decline*....We do the declining, they do the managing - which is essentially a combination of neglect and control and betrayal, to the point where the people in their resignation get landed with a government that does not follow or represent the interests of the British people as a whole. We are no longer outraged by decline and neglect, we adjust to it, we get used to it, we accept it, we expect it.
So let's break down exactly what is happening. We can see the neglect, read 'betrayal', of the fishing industry as an example of the UK losing sovereignty over its affairs.
Who is doing the betraying? It is the urban elite pursing their own interests, which are more often than not globalist, at the expense of national and local communities, devesting real local assets to reinvest in financials and global outsourcing.
The result is that ordinary people come to expect no better than neglect from their governors.... it feels almost feudal.
Perhaps this makes tactical sense in some way at the level of the ruling elite, but it is missing a longer term strategic opportunity for Britain. Instead of MBGA, we have neglect of our local communities, of the diversity of our economic interests, and most importantly neglect of our culture, in this case of Britain as a maritime nation.
1. Fishing as an example of loss of Sovereignty
It isn’t just economic, it’s symbolic too.
Control over our own waters.... (and beaches of course, ha ha)
Local industry is important, isn't this obvious? Or does the urban elite not care about further marginalising already marginalised communities? This sounds a little like the shutdown of the mining industry in the 1980s, or deindustrialisation more generally - selling real assets and reinvesting financial products and services.
Maritime independence is not just economic, it's part of our culture. We don't want that changed. We are a maritime nation.
Post-Brexit, many expected the UK to reclaim and rebuild its fishing fleet, but the reality has been neglect. With this deal we have lost the opportunity to enhance a part of our economy and our culture.
2. Metrocentrism and the Policy Class
"Metro centric" is a pretty damning term. It means policy is written by and for the urban elite, while regional voices like Grimsby, Hull or Fleetwood are excluded or simply forgotten.
The Whitehall bubble buys sardines from Lisbon, while British boats rot in harbour.
3. The Silent Acquiescence of the Voter
“The ordinary voters acquiesce” ... sad and tragic. society has become so fragmented that one community cares a little for another. Have we lost a sense of national identity?
Is there any anger, any fight, left in us? Or is it just complacency and resignation? We take to the streets, we are kettled and imprisoned. Where is the popular uprising? For that matter, where is the local reinvention? For all the independent press we listen to, where are the alternative political groups - what is the fishing lobby doing? Is Farage our only hope? Where are the bottom up alternative visions?
4. Strategic Industry, Wasted Opportunity
Fishing it is a national asset and could be a strategic national industry if properly mapped into a national strategy. Perhaps no longer economically very significant, but these arenot just strategic assets, rhey are our border communities.
The govt should be thinking about job creation and revitalisation in coastal communities.... Not just fishing, but hospitality and tourism, and I'm sure there are many other industries peculiar to the coast.
Fishing also falls under the remit of domestic food security. There's work in processing, canning, and export value-add supply chains.... It's a huge industry in southeast asia, for example, and it could be in uk waters, if they were kept for uk-registered fishing vessels, contributing to our own food security and the balance of payments surplus.
What does our government do? They put it on the table as a bargaining chip in EU trade negotiations.
5. Conclusion: A Betrayal of Place
Anyone who looks at this more closely would feel a genuine sense of betrayal.
An island nation that has abandoned the sea is a nation that has lost a policy battle, or never had one; but more importantly, it's a nation that has lost an entire layer of its cultural and economic identity, given away in exchange for elite interests in major industries. This is an abandonment and neglect of a community, one amongst many that make up the UK people.
What can we do about it? Seemingly nothing except for a few
shouty headlines in last week's papers. It is so obviously disrespectful of
democracy and the interest of the British people. We are left numbed into
inaction, despondent, resigned to the neglect and betrayal. What can we do about this?
In conclusion, the British coast is not a quaint tourist trail. It’s a national asset - and a strategic blind spot. If we can't build policy for our periphery, we will lose the centre too.
Metrocentrism is not just lazy. It’s lethal.
Friday, 23 May 2025
HOW THE ESTABLISHMENT RETAINS CONTROL OVER THE MAINSTREAM MEDIA
STARMER, RENT BOYS, MI5 MI6 CONFECTION
Wednesday, 21 May 2025
THE UNITED SELF
STARMER IS MANAGING BETWEEN SUPERIOR EXTERNAL FORCES, HE IS NOT GOVERNING
Thursday, 15 May 2025
COMPARING TREATMENT OF CASH ON TRADING PLATFORM V. ETF PLATFORM
Wednesday, 14 May 2025
NO-RULES S E ASIA
Indonesian culture as seen through the eyes of a young German tourist
1. Introduction
Many foreigners are attracted to Indonesia, not only because of its beautiful natural geography, but also because of its friendly, happy, relaxed and open people. But where does such an attitude to life actually come from?
A French thinker named Emmanuel Todd has an interesting theory: the way the family is organised in a region could explain why the culture, religion, and even politics in that region developed as they did. He called Indonesia and Southeast Asia a region with a family system “without fixed rules” – flexible, tolerant, and difficult to dictate to by harsh ideologies or rigid rules.
This post attempts to explain Todd’s thinking and show how his views can help us understand the distinctive characteristics of Indonesian society, including a personal religious way, a relaxed lifestyle, and compromising politics.
2. Video Reference: “Why Indonesian Girls”
The video linked to above was made by a German tourist visiting Yogyakarta, where he records a walk down the main street on a busy day. This is a young man and the viewers' attention is drawn to his views on Indonesian girls, of course, but what’s interesting is how this also fits with Emmanuel Todd’s ideas on Southeast Asian people and culture more broadly.
So what does Todd say that might explain the particular perceptions of this tourist - perceptions that, like it or not, are a key driver of tourism to Southeast Asia?
3. Emmanuel Todd’s Theory and the Logic Behind a “No Rules” Southeast Asia
Todd sets out to explain why different societies develop different political and ideological systems. Why some become authoritarian regimes, some lean toward socialism or communism, while others develop highly individualist cultures. Some are collectivist. Some become bottom-up liberal democracies. Others remain deeply hierarchical and respectful of authority.
He begins with the family. The core insight is this: the values and social norms you absorb in your family life – your attitude to authority, hierarchy, gender, individual freedom, equality – go on to shape the wider values of your society. The ways families raise children, resolve disputes, manage inheritance, select marriage partners, and organise power gradually become internalised and unquestioned. They spread across villages and generations. This forms the deep logic of how societies come to think as one about power, freedom, responsibility, and the good life. It becomes their culture.
What begins in the family ends up embedded in the laws, institutions, and ideologies of society. These inherited values shape what is considered acceptable behaviour, and what is not.
If you're with me so far, you’ll see we're tracing how a society is organised - not by the ideas of great men, but by tracking the origin of its values, from the family unit up to the wider institutions. From family decisions such as who inherits, who commands, whether men and women are equal, who decides who marries whom and when – to the laws, norms, and governing spirit of a people.
Over time, patterns of authority and inheritance, drawn from experience, get codified into law, cultural identity, and political ideology. Geography, history and religion all play a part, but for Todd, the family is the silent engine room of political culture.
4. The “No Rules” Family and the Case of Southeast Asia
Among the six major family types that Todd identifies, one stands out as specific to Southeast Asia. He calls it the “no rules” family system. You find it in Thailand, Vietnam, Cambodia, and parts of Indonesia and Burma.
So what does “no rules” mean? It refers to a family system without fixed rules for inheritance – neither strictly equal nor strictly hierarchical. There are no rigid authority structures within the household. There’s no clear preference for primogeniture (eldest child inherits everything) or equal division. Patriarchy is weak. Matriarchy is weak. Kinship ties are loose. Even the boundaries of family – who counts as family, who one can marry – are more fluid than in other parts of the world.
Authority is flexible. Inheritance is negotiated, often according to need. Extended family may matter, but it isn’t formalised into binding obligations. If a newly married man joins the household of his wife, that can the signal war. But when the woman joins the man's household, that brings peace. Most importantly, these societies display high levels of tolerance and adaptability. They absorb external influences - from Dutch or French colonialism, globalisation, or religious pluralism - without resentment or seeing them as threats. They forgive excesses.
This explains why political systems in Southeast Asia tend to avoid rigid ideologies. Instead of socialism or authoritarianism, you often find personalist rule (a cult of personality), clientelism (politics built on let's say reciprocal ties and favours), or soft hierarchies (governance through discussion and consensus, "majlis").
Indonesia, for example, firmly rejected communism in the 1960s. Its political culture simply does not support strong collective ideologies. Vietnam's best friend is now America and Indonesians genuinely hold no grudge against Holland.
Religions in the region reinforce this flexibility. Theravāda Buddhism, for instance, emphasises individual responsibility and tolerance over legalism or strict morality. Religion, like politics, is personal, not dogmatic.
5. Where Indonesia Fits
Indonesia, to some degree, fits this “no rules” model. In Java, Bali, Sulawesi, and other regions, traditional family structures are not strongly hierarchical. Inheritance is often decided informally. Authority in the household may be shared, or even female-led. Children stay at home after marriage to extend the family - you see the three-storey Asian house everywhere. The Minangkabau of West Sumatra, another example, are matrilineal.
These open family systems naturally foster pragmatism, cultural flexibility, and tolerance. They resist – often silently or unconsciously – rigid ideologies and moral absolutes. They adapt. They absorb. They compromise. They prioritise personal relationships over legal structures. Todd’s “no rules” model fits very well.
6. But Not All of Indonesia Follows This Pattern
Indonesia is vast and diverse – a mosaic of islands, peoples, languages and customs. While some regions follow the “no rules” model, others do not.
In Aceh, the first region to be converted, and in parts of Java, patriarchal and centralised family structures are more common, especially where Islamic law is influential. In tribal or remote areas such as among the Dayak of Kalimantan or Papuan communities, kinship rules are tighter and authority is more communally enforced by elders.
These systems resemble Todd’s “community family” or even “endogamous family” models, where local tradition and lineage take precedence.
So Indonesia cannot be reduced to one single model. It is not monolithic. It is a mosaic – some parts flexible, some rigid; some hierarchical, others egalitarian.
7. Todd’s Broader Implication
Todd does not write much about Indonesia in his early work, but in later mappings he places it in the broader Southeast Asian “no rules” zone.
His core thesis is striking: Islam came to a region without a strong native family ideology. As a result, in Indonesia, Islam remained personal and spiritual. It never embedded itself in the political or legal structure aswhere in the Arab or Iranian world it emerged from the family structure.
In short, there was no rigid social structure for Islam to lock into.

8. Glossary of Key Terms
Authority: The degree of hierarchy or control exercised by elders or parents within the family.
Inheritance Rules: Whether property is passed down equally, given to the eldest, or negotiated informally.
Key Values: The cultural lessons taught in childhood – equality, obedience, independence, tolerance, respect.
Political Outcome: The kind of political system (liberal, authoritarian, clientelist, collectivist) that tends to arise from these embedded family values.
9. Background Reading
Todd, Emmanuel (1985). The Explanation of Ideology: Family Structures and Social Systems. Basil Blackwell.
Todd, Emmanuel (1990). L’Invention de l’Europe. Éditions du Seuil.
Todd, Emmanuel (2002). After the Empire: The Breakdown of the American Order. Columbia University Press.
Le Bras, Hervé & Todd, Emmanuel (2013). Le Mystère Français. Éditions du Seuil.
Barber, Benjamin R. (1996). Jihad vs. McWorld. Ballantine Books.
Mulder, Niels (2000). Inside Southeast Asia: Religion, Everyday Life, Cultural Change. Silkworm Books.
Geertz, Clifford (1960). The Religion of Java. University of Chicago Press.
Woodward, Mark R. (1989). Islam in Java: Normative Piety and Mysticism in the Sultanate of Yogyakarta. University of Arizona Press.
Wikan, Unni (1990). Managing Turbulent Hearts: A Balinese Formula for Living. University of Chicago Press.
Emmanuel Todd – Public Interviews and Lectures (YouTube, France Culture, ARTE).
Indonesian version
Here is your complete Indonesian version of the blog post in LITA+ style, cleanly structured and ready to paste into your blog:
1. Pengantar
Banyak orang asing tertarik dengan Indonesia, bukan hanya karena keindahan alamnya, tetapi juga karena masyarakatnya yang ramah, santai, dan terbuka. Tapi dari mana sebenarnya sikap hidup seperti itu berasal?
Seorang pemikir asal Prancis bernama Emmanuel Todd punya teori yang menarik: cara keluarga diorganisasikan di suatu wilayah dapat menjelaskan bagaimana budaya, agama, bahkan politik di wilayah itu berkembang. Ia menyebut Indonesia dan Asia Tenggara sebagai wilayah dengan sistem keluarga “tanpa aturan tetap” – fleksibel, toleran, dan sulit untuk didikte oleh ideologi keras atau aturan yang kaku.
Tulisan ini mencoba menjelaskan pemikiran Todd dan menunjukkan bagaimana pandangannya dapat membantu kita memahami ciri khas masyarakat Indonesia: cara beragama yang personal, gaya hidup yang rileks, dan budaya politik yang kompromistis.
2. Video Rujukan: “Mengapa Gadis Indonesia?”
Ini adalah video buatan seorang turis Jerman yang berkunjung ke Yogyakarta, merekam dirinya berjalan di jalan utama yang ramai. Fokusnya, tentu saja, pada pandangannya tentang gadis-gadis Indonesia. Namun menariknya, pandangan ini sesuai dengan gagasan Emmanuel Todd tentang masyarakat dan budaya Asia Tenggara secara keseluruhan.
Jadi, apa yang dikatakan Todd yang mungkin bisa menjelaskan persepsi si turis ini – persepsi yang, suka atau tidak, menjadi salah satu pendorong pariwisata ke Asia Tenggara?
3. Teori Emmanuel Todd dan Logika di Balik Asia Tenggara “Tanpa Aturan”
Todd ingin menjelaskan mengapa berbagai masyarakat di dunia berkembang menjadi sistem politik dan ideologi yang berbeda. Mengapa ada yang menjadi otoriter, ada yang cenderung ke sosialisme atau komunisme, sementara yang lain menjadi sangat individualis atau sangat kolektivis. Ada yang menjadi demokrasi liberal dari bawah ke atas, ada pula yang sangat hierarkis.
Ia memulai dari keluarga. Inti pemikirannya adalah: nilai dan norma sosial yang diserap seseorang di dalam keluarga – sikap terhadap otoritas, hierarki, kebebasan individu, dan kesetaraan – menjadi nilai-nilai yang akan membentuk masyarakat secara luas.
Cara keluarga membesarkan anak, menyelesaikan konflik, mengatur warisan, memilih pasangan, dan menyusun kekuasaan, semuanya secara perlahan menjadi kebiasaan yang diterima tanpa pertanyaan. Nilai-nilai ini menyebar ke desa-desa dan lintas generasi, membentuk logika dasar masyarakat tentang kekuasaan, kebebasan, tanggung jawab, dan arti hidup yang baik. Nilai-nilai inilah yang akhirnya membentuk budaya mereka.
Apa yang bermula dalam keluarga akan tertanam dalam hukum, institusi, dan ideologi masyarakat. Nilai-nilai itu menentukan perilaku seperti apa yang dianggap dapat diterima dan mana yang tidak.
Jika Anda mengikuti sejauh ini, kita sedang melacak bagaimana masyarakat terbentuk – dengan menelusuri asal-usul nilai-nilai dari unit keluarga menuju sistem sosial yang lebih luas. Dari pertanyaan seperti siapa yang mewarisi, siapa yang memimpin, apakah laki-laki dan perempuan setara, siapa yang memutuskan pernikahan dan kapan anak harus meninggalkan rumah – menuju hukum, norma sosial, dan semangat pemerintahan sebuah masyarakat.
Pola otoritas dan aturan warisan pada akhirnya membentuk pemahaman tentang kekuasaan, hak, dan kewajiban. Dalam jangka panjang, semua itu akan tercermin dalam ideologi, identitas budaya, dan sistem hukum. Geografi, sejarah, dan agama tentu turut berperan – tetapi bagi Todd, keluarga adalah mesin tersembunyi dari budaya politik.
4. Keluarga “Tanpa Aturan” dan Kasus Asia Tenggara
Dari enam tipe keluarga utama yang diidentifikasi oleh Emmanuel Todd, satu tipe yang unik berasal dari Asia Tenggara. Ia menyebutnya sistem keluarga “tanpa aturan tetap”. Model ini ditemukan di Thailand, Vietnam, Kamboja, serta sebagian wilayah Indonesia dan Myanmar.
Apa arti dari “tanpa aturan”? Ini berarti sistem keluarga yang tidak memiliki aturan pasti tentang warisan – tidak sepenuhnya setara, tapi juga tidak hierarkis. Tidak ada struktur otoritas yang kaku dalam rumah tangga. Tidak ada preferensi pasti apakah anak sulung mewarisi segalanya ataukah warisan dibagi rata. Patriarki lemah. Matriarki lemah. Ikatan kekerabatan longgar. Bahkan pertanyaan seperti “siapa yang dianggap keluarga” atau “siapa yang boleh dinikahi” jauh lebih fleksibel dibandingkan dengan budaya lain.
Otoritas dalam keluarga bersifat fleksibel. Warisan dinegosiasikan berdasarkan kebutuhan. Keluarga besar tetap penting, tetapi tidak terikat pada aturan baku. Yang paling penting: masyarakat-masyarakat ini menunjukkan tingkat toleransi dan kemampuan beradaptasi yang sangat tinggi.
Mereka menyerap pengaruh luar – kolonialisme Belanda, globalisasi, pluralisme agama – tanpa menganggapnya sebagai ancaman.
Fleksibilitas ini menjelaskan mengapa politik Asia Tenggara cenderung tidak menyukai ideologi kaku. Bukan sosialisme atau otoritarianisme yang muncul, melainkan sistem personalistik (berbasis tokoh), klientelisme (hubungan timbal balik dengan kekuasaan luar), atau hierarki lunak (konsensus dan musyawarah).
Indonesia, misalnya, menolak komunisme secara tegas pada 1960-an. Budaya politik Indonesia tidak cocok dengan ideologi kolektif yang kuat.
Agama pun mengikuti pola ini. Buddhisme Theravāda, misalnya, menekankan tanggung jawab individu dan toleransi daripada legalisme atau aturan moral yang kaku. Agama, seperti halnya politik, bersifat pribadi – bukan dogmatis.
5. Di Mana Posisi Indonesia?
Sebagian besar wilayah Indonesia sesuai dengan pola “tanpa aturan tetap” ini. Di Jawa, Bali, Sulawesi, dan wilayah lainnya, struktur keluarga tradisional tidak bersifat sangat hierarkis. Warisan biasanya diputuskan secara informal. Otoritas dalam rumah bisa dibagi, atau bahkan dipimpin oleh perempuan. Contoh yang paling terkenal adalah masyarakat Minangkabau di Sumatera Barat yang menganut sistem matrilineal.
Sistem keluarga yang terbuka ini menghasilkan pragmatisme, keterbukaan budaya, dan toleransi terhadap perbedaan. Masyarakat seperti ini – secara diam-diam atau tidak sadar – menolak dogma. Mereka beradaptasi. Mereka menyerap. Mereka berkompromi. Mereka memprioritaskan hubungan personal daripada struktur formal. Todd menyebut ini sebagai model keluarga “tanpa aturan tetap”.
6. Tapi Tidak Semua Wilayah Indonesia Sama
Indonesia adalah negara yang sangat beragam – sekumpulan pulau, bahasa, dan budaya yang membentuk satu kesatuan. Sementara banyak wilayah sesuai dengan pola fleksibel tadi, ada juga yang berbeda.
Di Aceh dan sebagian Jawa, terdapat struktur keluarga yang lebih patriarkal dan terpusat – terutama di daerah yang terpengaruh oleh hukum Islam. Di wilayah-wilayah terpencil seperti Dayak di Kalimantan atau komunitas Papua di bagian timur, terdapat aturan kekerabatan yang lebih ketat dan otoritas komunitas yang dijalankan oleh tetua adat.
Struktur seperti ini lebih mirip dengan model “keluarga komunitas” atau bahkan “keluarga endogami” menurut Todd – di mana tradisi lokal dan garis keturunan lebih ditekankan.
Jadi, Indonesia tidak bisa dipahami hanya dengan satu model keluarga saja. Ia bukan sesuatu yang seragam, melainkan mosaik – sebagian fleksibel, sebagian kaku; sebagian hierarkis, sebagian egaliter.
7. Implikasi yang Lebih Luas Menurut Todd
Todd tidak banyak menulis tentang Indonesia dalam karya awalnya. Namun dalam pemetaan dan analisisnya yang lebih baru, ia memasukkan Indonesia ke dalam zona “tanpa aturan tetap” di Asia Tenggara.
Gagasan utamanya cukup mengejutkan: Islam datang ke wilayah yang tidak memiliki ideologi keluarga yang kuat. Hasilnya, Islam di Indonesia tetap bersifat pribadi dan spiritual – ia tidak membentuk sistem politik atau hukum seperti yang terjadi di dunia Arab atau Iran.
Singkatnya, tidak ada struktur sosial yang kaku di Indonesia yang dapat dikunci oleh Islam.
8. Glosarium Istilah Kunci
Otoritas: Tingkat hierarki atau kontrol yang dijalankan oleh orang tua atau tetua dalam keluarga.
Aturan Warisan: Apakah harta diwariskan secara merata, ke anak sulung, atau berdasarkan negosiasi.
Nilai-Nilai Kunci: Pelajaran masa kecil yang membentuk budaya – kesetaraan, ketaatan, kebebasan, toleransi, penghormatan.
Dampak Politik: Jenis sistem politik (liberal, otoriter, klientelis, kolektivis) yang cenderung muncul dari nilai-nilai yang tertanam dalam keluarga.
9. Bacaan Latar Belakang
Todd, Emmanuel (1985). The Explanation of Ideology: Family Structures and Social Systems. Basil Blackwell.
Todd, Emmanuel (1990). L’Invention de l’Europe. Éditions du Seuil.
Todd, Emmanuel (2002). After the Empire: The Breakdown of the American Order. Columbia University Press.
Le Bras, Hervé & Todd, Emmanuel (2013). Le Mystère Français. Éditions du Seuil.
Barber, Benjamin R. (1996). Jihad vs. McWorld. Ballantine Books.
Mulder, Niels (2000). Inside Southeast Asia: Religion, Everyday Life, Cultural Change. Silkworm Books.
Geertz, Clifford (1960). The Religion of Java. University of Chicago Press.
Woodward, Mark R. (1989). Islam in Java: Normative Piety and Mysticism in the Sultanate of Yogyakarta. University of Arizona Press.
Wikan, Unni (1990). Managing Turbulent Hearts: A Balinese Formula for Living. University of Chicago Press.
Emmanuel Todd – Wawancara dan Kuliah Umum Publik (YouTube, France Culture, ARTE).
[End]
THIS IS NOT OUR WAR
Is This Really *Our* War? The View from Below
As the Ukraine war grinds on, it’s increasingly clear that Europe’s political class committed to a long conflict with Russia. From Berlin to Brussels and London, our leaders speak with one voice: this is about security, sovereignty, values, and defending the European Order.
But what if you step outside the corridors of power? What if you ask the builders, bakers, teachers, engineers, retirees - the real citizens of Europe? Here’s how the story sounds when the official line meets street-level common sense - "the popular vote" says what?.
1. “This is about defending sovereignty and borders”
The official line: Russia violated Ukraine’s territorial integrity. We must stand against aggression. If we don’t draw the line in Ukraine, no one is safe, they'll get us.
The popular vote: “Russia had been warning for decades that Ukraine was the gateway through which previous invasions had passed and that NATO expansion threatened its security, its existence even. Where was official concern for sovereignty in Iraq? Libya? Kosovo? ... so why in Ukraine? If borders are sacred, why did NATO break up Yugoslavia? The West has selectively respected sovereignty for decades. Russia had no choice but to follow-through on Ukrainian neutrality. "
2. “We are defending European values – democracy, freedom, rule of law”
The official line: Ukraine is fighting for the values we hold dear. Europe must stand united against authoritarianism.
The popular vote: “Ukraine is hardly a democracy. The regime in Kiev bans political parties, censors the media, even shuts down the church, and promotes fascist militias like Azov? So this isn’t about values, it’s about power.”
3. “We must reduce our dependence on Russian energy”
The official line: Dependence on Russia makes Europe vulnerable. We must diversify, even if it costs more.
The popular vote: “Diversify yes, but why replace all cheap Russian gas with overpriced American LNG? Who actually benefits from this ‘independence’? Not the people, we’re paying higher energy bills, watching industries shut down, losing employment and trade, paying out in spiralling inflation.”
4. “Europe must strengthen its defence posture”
The official line: This is a wake-up call. We must spend more on defence and take responsibility for our security.
The popular vote: “You mean we should buy more American weapons - that's not taking responsibility, it's growing dependence! This isn’t about autonomy, it’s about tieing us to Washington. And when did the public get a say?”
5. “Public support is strong. This is a war for all Europeans”
The official line: Opinion polls show support for Ukraine. Citizens understand what’s at stake.
The popular vote: “Support is manufactured, the result of propaganda, misleading the public. The media is one-sided, debate is shut down, dissent and Putin are demonised. If anyone questions the war, they are labelled a Putin apologist. This is not consent, it is coercion.”
Conclusion
From the public’s point of view, the war in Ukraine looks less like a principled stand for values and more like a reckless elite obsession, driven by a groundless fear of Russia, subservience to America, and a refusal to pursue Europe’s national interests in peace and prosperity.
“This isn’t our war,” many would say. “It’s theirs [the elite's]. And we’re paying the price.”
WHAT IS ASSET REVESTING
Asset Revesting: A Smarter Way to Surf the Markets?
1. Introduction – Beyond Buy-and-Hold
-
Most people still follow the model: buy, hold, pray.
-
Chris Vermeulen’s "Asset Revesting" offers a different methodology – one where your capital moves with the momentum of the markets, not against it.
-
It's a dynamic, trend-following strategy rooted in technical analysis and market discipline.
This post explores what Asset Revesting is, how it works, what technical terms underpin it, and – crucially – where its limits lie.
2. What Is Asset Revesting?
-
The core idea: Revest - re-invest - capital into assets with upward momentum.
-
It's neither traditional trading nor passive investing – it’s a hybrid of tactical capital preservation and opportunistic rotation.
-
Vermeulen's philosophy is: stay out of downtrends or use invesrse ETFs, move into uptrends, and be in cash when nothing looks good.
3. Vermeulen’s Rules in Practice
-
Use moving averages and momentum signals to identify entries and exits.
-
Exit when momentum fades – no need for ego, don't listen to media narratives.
-
If nothing meets criteria, sit in cash and wait.
Examples:
-
Rotate out of tech into gold miners if momentum shifts.
-
Move into defensive ETFs like XLP or XLU during corrections.
4. Glossary – Terms You Need to Know
-
Moving Average (MA) – Average price over X days, showing trend.
-
RSI (Relative Strength Index) – Signals if an asset is overbought (>70) or oversold (<30).
-
Overbought/Oversold – Suggests price may reverse.
-
FOMO (Fear of Missing Out) – Emotional mistake of entering late.
-
Support/Resistance – Horizontal zones where price tends to bounce or stall.
-
Volume Analysis – High volume confirms strong moves.
-
Stop-Loss Orders – Predetermined exits to protect capital.
-
Position Sizing – How much capital to risk on a trade.
-
Stage Analysis – Recognises the four market phases: Accumulation, Advance, Distribution, Decline.
5. What Makes Asset Revesting Different?
-
Avoids the dead money trap of holding losers, hoping they'll revive.
-
Emphasises trend-following with strict exit criteria.
-
Encourages unemotional, rule-based decisions.
-
Views cash as a valid position – a radical but important shift.
6. A Word of Caution – Vermeulen’s Own Critique
-
Vermeulen acknowledges the paradox which is that most clients don’t follow through.
-
Why?
-
Lack of discipline.
-
Emotional trading.
-
Misunderstanding technical signals.
-
“The system works... but only if you do.” - Vermeulen
This isn’t plug-and-play. It demands commitment, learning, and honest self-assessment reviews.
7. Where Asset Revesting Shines
-
Works well in trending environments.
-
Protects capital in downturns.
-
Ideal for active investors who want more control than general passive ETFs but less stress than day trading.
8. Where It Struggles
-
Choppy, sideways markets generate false signals.
-
Requires time and consistency to learn the indicators.
-
Can underperform in explosive rallies if signals lag.
9. Should You Use It?
You might consider it if:
-
You’re frustrated by buy-and-hold.
-
You want structure and do not want pure speculation.
-
You can follow rules and manage your emotions.
You probably shouldn’t if:
-
You want set-and-forget investing.
-
You’re uncomfortable with technical charts.
-
You expect instant gains.
10. Final Thoughts – A System for the Serious
Asset Revesting offers a disciplined, rule-based way to manage risk and stay in tune with the market.
It’s not easy.
It’s not foolproof.
But it’s one of the few strategies that tries to make rational use of price action without the delusion of prediction.
If you’re willing to learn the ropes, the rewards – especially protection in drawdowns – may be worth it.
11. Where to Learn More
-
Asset Revesting – 2nd Edition by Chris Vermeulen
-
Daily commentary on Chris Vermeulen’s YouTube Channel
Also Recommended:
-
Brent Johnson – Dollar Milkshake Theory
-
Lyn Alden – Macro research
-
Russell Napier – Financial repression & capital controls
-
Luke Gromen – forestfortrees.substack.com
-
Zoltan Pozsar – De-dollarisation frameworks
-
Joseph Wang – Treasury & Fed liquidity dynamics
Monday, 12 May 2025
CARE CRISIS AFTER IMMIGRANT CARE WORKER BAN
12 May 2025
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/social-care-visa-immigration-government-b2749180.html
Bold talk on immigration, but behind the numbers lies a quiet cruelty: the government has chosen to cut the care workforce — the least likely to protest, and the most vital to our dignity.
1. Overview of the Policy Change
The UK government, under Sir Keir Starmer, has introduced major immigration reforms targeting the care sector. At the heart of these changes is the decision to close off the Health and Care Worker visa route to new overseas applicants. This visa had previously allowed care providers to recruit non-UK staff to help fill critical gaps in the workforce. The new policy forms part of Labour's broader ambition to reduce legal migration figures and push employers to hire and train British workers instead. But critics argue this comes at a cost the care system cannot afford.
2. Impact on the Social Care Sector
Social care in the UK is already fragile, marked by chronic understaffing, rising costs, and a long-standing recruitment crisis. In 2023–24 alone, around 105,000 international workers were hired to support adult care — a vital contribution that helped reduce vacancy rates slightly. Removing access to the overseas visa route now risks reversing this progress. The government’s own estimates suggest there will be at least 7,000 fewer care workers. Meanwhile, the broader sector faces over 131,000 vacancies, with projections indicating the need for an additional 540,000 staff by 2040. Providers warn that the gap will be unfillable without continued access to international labour.
3. Reactions from Sector Leaders
Care leaders have sounded the alarm. Dr Jane Townson, head of the Homecare Association, called the policy "a brutal reality", warning that more homecare providers will close. She argues that the government’s failure to consult frontline professionals, coupled with rising employer costs and underfunding, will leave elderly and disabled people without safe and dignified care. Nadra Ahmed of the National Care Association compared the situation to the post-Brexit collapse of care resilience. She even questioned whether the government was deliberately running the sector into the ground in order to pave the way for nationalisation - an unusual criticism aimed at a Labour government.
4. Broader Criticism of Government Strategy
Critics describe the government’s approach as “whack-a-mole” - constantly reacting to crises without long-term strategy. Lucinda Allen of the Health Foundation said the policy demonstrates the government’s “limited understanding” of the care system’s structure, financing, and needs. With no new funding or incentives to recruit domestic workers, and with rising wage and insurance obligations for employers, care companies are left exposed. Unison's general secretary, Christina McAnea, noted that both the NHS and social care would have collapsed years ago without foreign staff, and warned the new policy dangerously ignores this reality.
5. Government’s Justification
Ministers defend the move by pointing to national migration figures and the need to train a domestic workforce. Home Secretary Yvette Cooper said employers should not depend on low-paid migration but instead improve pay and training for local workers. The government expects the changes to cut net migration by 50,000 per year. However, no replacement plan has been offered to address the immediate gap in care provision, nor any funding pledge to support workforce development - raising fears of a looming collapse in services already stretched to the brink.
6. Glossary of Terms
Health and Care Worker Visa: A visa introduced in 2021 allowing non-UK citizens to work in health and social care roles.
Net Migration: The difference between people entering and leaving a country within a given time period.
Whack-a-mole approach: A term for tackling individual problems as they arise without addressing root causes or creating long-term solutions.
Nationalisation: Bringing a sector or industry under state ownership or control, often following the collapse or failure of private provision.
7. Conclusion
The Labour government’s decision to close off the care visa route may achieve a reduction in migration figures, but at what cost? The policy risks accelerating the breakdown of a care system already on its knees. Without urgent investment, planning, or a viable domestic recruitment strategy, providers warn that the elderly and vulnerable will be the ones who suffer. Many now fear this is not just a policy misstep, but a fundamental failure to recognise the scale of the crisis. Social care, once again, appears to be treated as a political afterthought — until it’s your own family who needs it.
8. Policy review: This is a Numbers Cynically Targeting Care Workers
The decision to target care workers within this immigration crackdown appears not just careless, but calculated. Among the various migrant labour categories in the UK - from construction engineers to agricultural pickers, from software developers to domestic staff in wealthy households - the government has chosen to hit one of the least politically powerful groups: overseas care workers.
The rationale is brutally simple. Ministers need to bring down net migration figures. But they must do so in a way that avoids backlash from business leaders, the middle classes, or university sectors. Foreign cleaners in elite homes? Untouchable. Skilled tech workers or logistics drivers? Too essential. But care workers - largely invisible, working-class, often racialised - present a soft target. Their clients, elderly and disabled people, don’t typically march on Westminster.
Yet demand for care is inelastic. When providers shut, when workers are priced out or cut off, people don’t suddenly stop needing help with bathing, mobility, or dementia support. The result is simple economics: prices will rise. What we call “closures” will in practice become a dual-tier system, where the affluent continue receiving care - at a premium - and others are left to struggle, deteriorate, rely on overwhelmed family members or choose to send their elderly offshore to foreign lands with inexpensive high quality care facilities such as are found in Southeast Asia.
This policy, then, is not just short-sighted. It is structurally cruel. It chooses political optics over societal function. It speaks to an underlying cynicism in the current government: win points on migration, even if it means letting the vulnerable slip through the cracks.
The deeper fear, voiced quietly in sector circles, is whether this is part of a longer-term game: allow the private market to collapse under labour scarcity and cost pressure, then Labour intervenes - not out of compassion, but to rebuild it as a nationalised or outsourced hybrid model under stricter state control. Alternatively, the sector gets slowly financilised i.e. slowly falls into the hands of private or quoted equity for example REITS. If true, we are not witnessing a policy failure, but a slow, deliberate dismantling, absent a strategy of compassion for a growing section of the population.
References:
- The Independent, 11 May 2025
- Skills for Care, Workforce Reports 2024
- The Health Foundation
- Financial Times
- Unison Press Briefing
[END]










