Saturday, 23 October 2021
OUR INHERITANCE
Thursday, 21 October 2021
ACCESS THAILAND
- Passport or travel document with a validity not less than 6 months
- Visa application form (filled out)
- One(1) recent 4x6cm. photograph of the applicant
- Round-trip air ticket or e-ticket (paid in full)
- Proof of financial means (20,000 baht per person/40,000 baht per family)
- Proof of Hotel or private accommodation
After receiving your Thailand tourist visa and certificate of entry from the Thai Embassy or consulate, the traveler must prepare the following documents before traveling to Thailand:
- Certificate of Entry (COE)
- Valid visa in your passport
- Declaration Form
- Medical Certificate with a laboratory result indicating that COVID -19 is not detected. The COVID test must be by the RT-PCR method, within 72 hours before departure. Some airlines do not accept home kit tests so please check specific requirements with the airlines you are traveling with.
- Printed COVID 19 travel insurance certificate and all pages of the terms and conditions on the COVID-19 coverage and medical benefits. You may be refused to board the flight if you could not show that the insurance meets this requirement.
- Copy of confirmed ASQ Hotel booking
- Copy of confirmed flight reservation
- T8 Health Form
- You must download the “Thailand Plus” Application on your mobile phone
Wednesday, 20 October 2021
HEAT PUMP
Monday, 18 October 2021
NO MORE PATIENCE FOR THE EU
18 October 2021
The EU is a dangerous and wayward power. It has no vision of its future. It has no idea of the balance of power in the world. It treats its enemies, like China and Russia as friends ; and it treats its friends, the UK and the United States, as enemies. It shows no respect to its peoples, instead it seeks to discipline them (the Greeks, the Poles, the Hungarians.) It serves only German industry and French vanity. It exists as a vortex of power, draining member states of their skilled and competent, becoming ever more self-centred in the process. It has always taken Britain for granted, and always tolerated French selfishness.
No one asked the British people if they consented to be governed by a European super-state. No one asked the Europeans either, though they don't care.
Yes, we were morally entitled to take back our sovereignty. Yes, we can make a practical success of it. Yes, we have always been and always will be sovereign : we didn't join the euro, we didn't agree to bail out the Greeks, we didn't join Schengen and we vote to leave the EU ... AND WE LEFT.
At present our greatest difficulty is the sabotage being perpetrated by remainers in influential places, who will use every rumour, every innuendo, every insinuation, to destroy confidence in their own country, and delight in every setback they can find, whether or not caused by themselves.
Friday, 15 October 2021
AN INVESTING STRATEGY (work in progress ...)
Looking at the Cyclically Adjusted Price Earnings ratio (CAPE):
Ie average on the FTSE 100 and 250
Average over last 10 years.
It is middle of the road territory on both:
FTSE100 at 7,000 is CAPE in 14 to 20 range
FTSE250 at 23,000 is CAPE in 19 to 28 range
So fair value on both - meaning you can expect the average return of 7%, divis reinvested.
Now compare with the S&P500:
It's up 1.71% today at 4,438.26.
The CAPE is over 32.
32 is off my scale
32 is way way average.
Best bet is to identify lower P/E, higher divi stocks If you can find any with a good track record. Put them on a watch list. Decide an allocation and diversification policy. Buy the undervalued and sell the overvalued, according to your position-sizing.
Take account of yield, of growth, and of valuation.
And sell out of these stocks or a covering ETF, if inflation is installing itself on a more permanent basis at 5% and above.
INDICATORS
1. FUNDAMENTAL
2. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
3. SENTIMENT
1. FUNDAMENTAL
1a. YIELD
1b. GROWTH
ROCE Finding a business that has the potential to grow substantially is not so easy, but it is possible if we look at a few key financial metrics.
Firstly, we'll want to see a proven return on capital employed (ROCE) that is increasing, and secondly, an expanding base of capital employed.
1c. VALUATION
Monday, 11 October 2021
YAYOI KUSAMA at THE TATE MODERN
Sunday, 10 October 2021
BRACE FOR INTEREST RATE RISES
Later, we are told it is a multitude of small, short-term issues, of which panic-buying fuel is but the latest, and once we're through we'll be in global-Britain times enjoying our prosperity, power and independence to the max.
But will we? As it feels as though the situation is
worsening, with bad surprises flying in every week. And for the causes,
don't look local, because these are global supply chain problems. Of
course.
working conditions, pay, red tape, laziness and over-sensitivities, many drivers quitting because of the lockdowns, not training up new HGV operators, and not women, Brexit causing many to return home, giving a shortage of 100,000 drivers. That's a lot and you do wonder what the RHA has been doing - all asleep in their cabs!
We are talking about logistics for retail food and fuel, but that's not all. What we are talking about is shipping costs, and gas price rises and a drop in sterling, we're concerned about inflation and interest rates, tax rises both 2.5% NI (yes, 2.5%) and local authority tax rises, and ultimately how all this joins up to the medium and long term as concerns the EU FTA, the break-up of the kingdom, and beyond that to recession, debt-collapse, climate change, migrations, the rise of China.
We can imagine low interest rates and high inflation, followed by high interest rates and recession. If high-wage, capital is going to replace labour and put those low-wage often immigrant, workers on the dole, at taxpayer expense.
It's a lot for Boris to think about (we are getting into a cult figure status).
Can we see what's happening through this glare of more and more short-term problems? Saunders is interesting
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2021/10/09/brace-interest-rate-rises-warns-bank-england-rate-setter/?li_source=LI&li_medium=liftigniter-rhr.
Oil prices have reached a three year
high, $80 a barrel, and climbing thanks to output disruptions and this
high demand. Traditional oil companies are selling out and investing in
green, adding to supply problems and green is much more expensive.
Germany is now back to relying on coal and on Putin!
Then there's the construction sector where more than one in three businesses can't get the materials, goods and services they need within the UK. How will a young person rehab the flat they've just bought? What effect on the target of 300,000 housing starts?
The gas surge closed two of
the UK’s big industrial fertiliser plants in a completely unexpected and
inflationary surprise, showing graphically how everything is connected
to everything and everywhere there are knife-edges,resulting in more
govt takeover in the "market" economy and state aid and yet more
borrowing.
Food prices and staples. Commodities. Is this the start of a new supercycle?
So now we have inflation at 4 per cent for the short-term, plus a possible base rate rise early next year, possibly even this year 2021. America same same. Plus if we enter the land of 5% inflation there will be the threat to stock markets, not just imminent tapering.
Still, no significant upturn in unemployment nor substantial corporate distress. Only inflation, supply difficulties that threaten the economic recovery (which is already faltering).
And what about the jobs of those coming off furlough? Will they want to back to work? Will employers have work for them? Given the worsening outlook.
Only
worries and questions. No real answers. Yet everyone is talking of
recession. And the Prince of Norway offers the UK help with food and
fuel. That's quite humiliating.
Sort out the short term, the central bank needs to say no interest rate rises medium term, but the long term is surely out of the hands of management or politicians.
PRODUCTIVITY IN THE UK ECONOMY
At last week’s Conservative conference, the Prime Minister championed a high-wage, low-immigration economy driven by high productivity, accusing firms of being drunk on cheap labour from abroad. But unless productivity is also there, it will simply lead to higher inflation and require a more stringent response from the BoE.
For all the PM’s urging, growth in productivity, which allows the economy to get more bang for its buck, has been anaemic for a decade or more. The best way, really the only way, to achieve a sustained rise in real wages is through higher productivity growth. But are there any signs of that? So far, no.
In any case, what are the answers to how to raise productivity among the likes of HGV drivers, or baristas in coffee shops? It’s very hard in advance to anticipate the details of how productivity growth can pick up, but we know the general conditions which help :Friday, 8 October 2021
"SPILLOVER" - EUROPEAN INTEGRATION AT WORK
It has well overstepped the mark with its claim to sovereignty over nation states. If it could restrain itself to a trade body such as the IEEE that would be fine.
Instead, this creeping federalism, where it bribes trade bodies into accepting its constitution by offering subsidies, offering control through the ECJ, and in return it stuffs their boards with its representatives and imposes its political goals on their charters.
There are 40 such agencies.
For example, take the case of transport, a cornerstone of European integration. There are three agencies covering transport, of which EASA is one. It was formed from the national aviation authorities. The nationals agreed because air transport concerns Europe as a whole, they were given powers of legal enforcement through the ECJ, and a hefty subsidy.But also the
EASA now controls them because it sits on the boards of the nationals to
ensure they are fulfilling obligations for the free movement of
individuals, services and goods... not a national objective.
That's how integration works. National govts are sapped of their powers and cannot achieve their priorities for their own peoples.
That's broadly why the UK left.
Thursday, 7 October 2021
PAULA REGO at THE TATE BRITAIN
7 October 2021
*Paula Rego at Tate Britain
I have a ticket to see paintings by a Portuguese artist, Paula Rego, at Tate Britain on Friday.
*About
She explores adults’ cruelty and children’s wildness and in her paintings, her stories tell of dangerous adventures.
She tries to overturn a world that she believes is shaped by men, for men. In fact, it seems to me that some of her works were for women to see, not men!Rego is a clever and deep woman and this expo will be difficult for me to comprehend ... which is why I'm going!!
*Jungian
Rego explains: ‘it was very important to go to the origin, the imaginative origin that provides the images of what we have inside us, without us knowing what it is’.
*Surrealist
*Your biography
*https://btleditorial.com/2016/12/05/common-archetypal-character/
Archetypal event
birth, death, leaving home, initiation, marriage (the union of opposites)....
Archetypal characters
the mother, father, child, god, wise old man/woman, trickster, comedian, fool, shaman, leader, scholar ...
Archetypal motifs
the apocalypse, the deluge, the creation...
Characterisation
thoughts, actions, physical description, reactions, and dialogue











