4. GOLD, THE DOLLAR, THESE FOREVER WARS AND GOLD'S FLASH CRASH

23 October 2025

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GOLD, THE DOLLAR, AND THESE FOREVER WARS

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1. The Dollar Trap

It might seem utterly foolish for Russian companies such as oil giants Rosneft and Lukoil to leave assets in US dollar accounts, given the near-certainty of eventual confiscation.
But what choice did they have? The dollar remains the central clearing currency for global trade, especially in oil, shipping, insurance, and large-scale long-dated commodity contracts. To pull out would assure legal actions, fines...

Even when nations want to diversify, the reality is that the dollar’s network effect is overwhelming. It underpins the international payments system (SWIFT), and most trade finance is still denominated in USD. Cutting oneself off from the dollar is near impossible. 

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2. Gold's Flash Crash

Gold fell sharply last Thursday and again on Tuesday (today is Thursday 23 Oct 2025).
Analysts cited “easing trade tensions” between the US and as the US moved to compromise over the export of refined rare Earths from China) and speculation that the Federal Reserve might have to delay further rate cuts - both factors said to have strengthened the dollar, its relative strength.

But when we look at the data, the DXY (Dixie, the Dollar Index) barely moved - roughly from 98.8 to 99.0. This is hardly a “strong dollar rally.”
It raises a fair question: are markets being "over-interpreted" to fit policy-friendly narratives? Ie, are we getting propaganda even in our macroeconomic data? Is the significance of these forever wars being obscured?

The timing of these moves over the last week suggests something else.
Gold’s decline coincided with rumours of progress towards peace in Ukraine: fewer geopolitical shocks tend to depress safe-haven assets.
Then, when Washington sanctioned Rosneft and Lukoil, gold rebounded.
That makes sense: sanctions restrict oil supply, drive up prices, slow global trade, and threaten growth, which create exactly the conditions under which investors hedge with gold.

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3. Central Banks Keep Buying

Step back and look at the long-term trend.
Central banks, especially in Asia, the Middle East, and emerging markets, have been accumulating gold steadily for two decades.
They buy as part of a de-dollarisation strategy, exchanging printed local currency for physical metal that can’t be frozen or sanctioned. And now selling out of U.S treasuries or at least not investing in in order to obtain dollars and with these by gold.

According to the World Gold Council (2024), central banks added over 1,000 tonnes to their reserves in just two years — the largest accumulation since records began.
China, India, Turkey, and Poland have been the leading buyers. Remember that since 1971 the US dollar as not been backed by anything other than a promise from the US treasury. 

The logic is simple: monetisation of debt by printing expands the money supply while the supply of physical assets remains constant, causing inflation ie reducing the purchasing power of a fiat currency.

• Inflation erodes fiat money.
• Gold protects purchasing power.
• Plus, in an era of dollar weaponisation, gold is one of the few assets that is truly sovereign.

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4. The Investment Gap

Ray Dalio (Bridgewater Associates) and strategists at J.P. Morgan recommend holding 15–25 % of total assets in gold as “wealth insurance.”
Yet institutional portfolios such as pension funds today hold less than 1 % of their assets in gold. Retail investors hold even less.

If institutions were to rebalance towards that 15 % level, it would represent a massive structural demand shock ...a tide of capital that could propel gold prices way beyond their current levels.

Gold is not only a store of value but also a reserve asset for trade ie a settlement medium between central banks.
In other words, it operates as a form of real money, even in a fiat world. "Gold is money, all the rest is credit", said J P Morgan himself back in 1912!

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5. The Real Risks

For private investors, the question is not whether gold’s price will fluctuate - it surely will. It’s about sovereign risk (the risk of a state breaking its promise to repay by defaulting on its debt, freezing assets, imposing capital controls, or otherwise preventing investors from getting their money back):

• Will governments impose capital gains or sales taxes on gold transactions?
• Could they impose capital controls on moving bullion across borders?
• Could “anti-hoarding” or “windfall” taxes appear under the pretext of financial stability?

The danger isn’t in gold’s volatility — it’s in the system’s desperation for revenue.
When the debt burden grows too large to service, governments look for assets to confiscate or revalue.

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6. The Takeaway

Gold remains the last refuge for those seeking no counterparty risk (the risk a bank, broker, or borrower will fail to meet their obligation) ie seeking a physical asset whose supply is limited and whose value cannot be "conjured" by printing presses.
Gold is in effect an anchor of trust in a world of promises.

As debt-to-GDP ratios soar, and money supply expands at “eye-watering” speed, currently:

U.S. GDP: ≈ $30 trillion

U.S. National Debt: ≈ $38 trillion

Debt-to-GDP ratio: ≈ 124 %.

The logic of holding gold grows clearer - there's no way that dirt is ever going to be repaid in full unless inflation can burn it away ie inflation about interest rates over many years indeed decades... but who would continue to invest in U.S treasuries?) or the system will fracture under its own weight. A structure - political, economic, or social - becomes so large, complex, and unsustainable that it collapses from internal pressure, not from outside attack, ie costs, contradictions or inefficiencies grow faster than the system's ability to manage them - debt, inequality, bureaucracy, or corruption grow faster than productivity and trust, so the system eventually implodes from within.

It breaks down naturally, like an overloaded bridge snapping.

Fiscal Dominance and Overstretch

The state’s debt burden grows faster than the tax base.

Interest payments consume a rising share of govt revenue.

Governments start to monetise the debt (print or issue short-term paper to fund themselves).

Investors lose confidence → rising bond yields → even higher borrowing costs → ... a vicious spiral.

In either case, those holding tangible, finite assets will sleep better!

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References:

• World Gold Council (2024) – Central Bank Gold Reserves Data
• Ray Dalio, Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order (2021)
• J.P. Morgan Private Bank, 2025 Outlook: Real Assets for a Real World
• YouTube: The Gold Story – Explaining the Numbers

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Why Central Banks Keep Buying Gold

(This graphic shows the flows, incentives, and price linkages.)

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1. WHAT IS ASEAN

1. WHAT IS ASEAN

Tag these articles: SEATMS

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20 October 2025

1. What is ASEAN

ASEAN stands for Association of Southeast Asian Nations.
It was founded in 1967 by Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore and Thailand to promote peace, stability, and prosperity in Southeast Asia.
Today it includes 10 member countries, with Timor-Leste preparing to join as the 11th.

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2. The Members

Indonesia
Malaysia
Philippines
Singapore
Thailand
Brunei
Vietnam
Laos
Myanmar
Cambodia

(Timor-Leste - observer, expected to become full member soon.)

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3. Why It Was Created

ASEAN was born in the Cold War era, when Southeast Asia was unstable and divided.
The founders wanted to prevent regional conflict, boost trade, and create a sense of unity.
It was also a way to keep outside powers - the US, China, and the Soviet Union - from dominating regional affairs.

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4. How ASEAN Works

Decisions are made by consensus, meaning every member must agree.
The ASEAN Secretariat is based in Jakarta, Indonesia.
Annual Summits bring together leaders and partners such as China, Japan, the United States, and the European Union.
It operates through three main pillars: Economic, Political-Security, and Socio-Cultural.

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5. Main Achievements

ASEAN Free Trade Area (AFTA) reduced tariffs and boosted regional trade.
The ASEAN Community (2015) encouraged closer economic and political integration.
The ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF) provides a platform for security dialogue.
Visa-free travel agreements among several members have encouraged tourism and mobility.

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6. Ongoing Challenges

Economic gaps remain wide between richer states (Singapore, Malaysia) and poorer ones (Laos, Myanmar).
Human rights and democracy issues persist, especially in Myanmar.
The consensus model slows decision-making in times of crisis.
The region faces pressure from both China and the United States, each seeking influence.

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7. Summary

ASEAN is Southeast Asia’s family of nations – a community built on peace, cooperation, and regional identity.
It has prevented wars and encouraged trade, but its slow, cautious style limits its global impact.

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Glossary

Consensus – all members must agree before taking action.
Integration – combining economies or policies to work as one.
Regional forum – a meeting space for countries to discuss shared issues.
Bloc – a group of countries acting together politically or economically.

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TO MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN

18 Ocrober 2025

"What's happening" looks the same for all end-stage empires.

You can tell when an empire is in decline - it forgets, or loses confidence in, its own culture and values.

It forgets what once made it great and instead pursues expansion, hegemony, and imposing its forgotten values on others rather than living them itself.

It’s a shame.

“Make America Great Again” should mean America remembering and living again its values. It's values that are the bedrock of a culture.

When we think of America as she used to be, before the endless wars, the Dulles brothers, the labyrinthine neocon deep state, we think of what The Judge captured in that gaudy opening countdown of his:

freedom to make one’s own future, free from too much state interference. Compare that with China’s idea of community and conformity.

We think of “all men are created equal". How does that square with the Epstein list or tax avoidance for corporates and billionaires?

We think of the frontier spirit: tough people relying on themselves, driving westward in search of better lives for their families. But what does that mean today, to those living in caravan parks or numbed out on fentanyl?

People once ran to America. Now, they run away from it. What’s needed is a spiritual cleansing, a return to the faith that freedom, equality and self-reliance, not domination, are what make a nation great.

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3. PORTFOLIO STRATEGY THREE GOLD ETFs FOR THE DOLLAR ENDGAME

Portfolio Strategy: Three Gold ETFs for the Dollar Endgame

1. Two-Phase Dollar Cycle

2. Relative Performance (Phase 1) - clean line chart comparing SGLN, AUCP, GDXJ under a “Dollar Crunch” (DXY↑, liquidity↓).

3. Gold Sensitivities (Phase 2) - bar chart showing approximate leverage to gold (SGLN 1×, AUCP 1.5×, GDXJ 2.5–3×).

4. ATR-Based Trailing Stop - simple visual of price vs trailing stop band.

5. Portfolio Allocation - pie or stacked bar showing 40 / 40 / 20 split and respective roles.

Framework and Rationale

This section examines how a gold-weighted portfolio might behave across two distinct phases of the dollar cycle.

Phase 1 represents a dollar liquidity squeeze; Phase 2 represents a loss of confidence in fiat money.

The focus is on three London-listed ETFs: SGLN (iShares Physical Gold), AUCP (L&G Gold Mining), and GDXJ (VanEck Junior Gold Miners UCITS).

Each vehicle captures a different layer of exposure — physical metal, senior producers, and high-beta junior miners.

(Insert – “Two-Phase Dollar Cycle: Dollar Crunch → Dollar Break”)

Phase 1 – Dollar Strength and Liquidity Tightening

In this phase, real yields rise and the dollar index (DXY) strengthens.

Liquidity leaves emerging markets and speculative equities, creating risk aversion.

The key mechanism is forced de-leveraging: investors sell what they can, not necessarily what they should, in order to pay their debts.

SGLN tends to remain resilient.  Gold is sold for cash but simultaneously benefits from safe-haven flows and, in sterling terms, from a weaker pound.  The ETF’s low tracking error and physical backing make it an effective capital-preservation tool.

AUCP declines moderately.  Large producers suffer from falling sentiment and, to a lesser degree, lower short-term bullion prices, but their positive cash flow and dividend yield absorb part of the shock.

GDXJ reacts sharply.  Juniors are sensitive to financing conditions; they often fall two or three times more than gold itself.  A 15–25 per cent correction is typical during risk-off episodes.

Relative performance of SGLN, AUCP and GDXJ during dollar-strength periods

Practical note: investors should treat such drawdowns as accumulation opportunities rather than reasons to exit.

Position sizes can be scaled gradually when RSI falls below 40 and volume contracts, indicating capitulation rather than fundamental weakness.

Phase 2 – Dollar Weakness and Monetary Repricing

This phase begins when markets conclude that the Federal Reserve has lost control of real yields.

Fiscal deficits widen, policy credibility erodes, and inflation expectations re-anchor higher.

The narrative shifts from “tight money” to “unpayable debt.”

SGLN becomes the portfolio’s anchor.  As central-bank demand rises, the ETF’s price tends to advance broadly in line with bullion.  Gains of 50–100 per cent are historically consistent with similar monetary resets.

AUCP benefits from margin expansion: producers’ revenues follow bullion while their costs (energy, labour, reagents) adjust more slowly.  Leverage to the gold price is roughly 1.5×, with dividends maintaining investor confidence.

GDXJ becomes the high-beta sleeve.  Smaller miners experience operational leverage; historical analogues suggest potential 3–5× moves once gold establishes a new base above previous highs.

(Insert – “Estimated sensitivities of SGLN, AUCP and GDXJ to bullion price changes”)

Trade Management and Exit Discipline

The challenge in this environment is not identifying the trend but managing exposure as volatility expands.

ATR (Average True Range) provides a practical way to frame trailing exits without being prematurely stopped out.

1. During consolidation: use the 14-day ATR to estimate expected daily range.  For example, if ATR = 2.5 USD, a normal fluctuation is ±2.5 USD around recent closes.

2. During the breakout: allow a wider tolerance — roughly one ATR below the weekly closing high.  This converts ATR from a defensive stop into a trailing exit that locks in profits while respecting trend volatility.

3. When volatility contracts after a spike: reduce position size or rebalance into SGLN to maintain portfolio stability.

(Insert placeholder: small technical diagram – “ATR-based trailing stop illustrated on GDXJ weekly chart”)

Position Weighting

A practical distribution reflecting both protection and asymmetry could be:

ETF Exposure Type Typical Beta to Gold Suggested Weight Role

SGLN Physical bullion 1.0 40 % Core hedge and liquidity reserve

AUCP Senior producers 1.5 40 % Income and steady participation

GDXJ Junior miners 2.5–3.0 20 % High-beta growth sleeve

(Insert placeholder: infographic – “Sample portfolio allocation across gold tiers”)

Assumptions

Liquidity cycles drive performance differences more than simple bullion moves.

ATR and moving averages are practical, objective tools for risk control.

The long-term value of miners derives from cash flow sensitivity to gold, not short-term sentiment.

Diversifying across the gold-exposure ladder (metal → majors → juniors) allows participation through both deflationary and inflationary phases of the dollar cycle.

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1. GOLD, EQUITIES AND THE ENDGAME OF A TRASHED CURRENCY

13 October 2025

Gold, Equities and the Endgame of a Trashed Currency

When money weakens, asset prices soar - at first at least. But the illusion of wealth soon gives way to the reality of devaluation. This is the story of how currencies collapse, why gold endures, and how you, dear readers as investors, might navigate the transition.

Money Printing

It is well explained here, offset 15'

1. The Dollar’s Fragile Supremacy

When a currency weakens, the first thing investors notice is that everything priced in it seems to rise. “Appears to”. Gold, oil, and shares all appear to surge in value. But this is largely an illusion. Their nominal price climbs because the measuring stick - the currency itself - is shrinking. You have to understand that the money in your pocket doesn’t go as far as it used to because there is more of it in circulation - more money chasing the same supply of goods => inflation. Real assets and notably gold are unchanged in value (in usefulness), it’s just that to buy them you need more and more of a collapsing currency. 

So the early phase of a currency decline is seductive. It feels like a boom. Asset prices climb, optimism abounds, and governments convince themselves the problem is under control. In reality, it’s the first act of a slow-moving tragedy.

2. The Flight to Hard Assets

As faith in money falters, investors turn instinctively towards what is real and finite. Gold and silver rise first. Commodities follow. Real estate attracts capital too, because it is tangible and usable. These are the classic havens in times of monetary excess. Property owners can be well pleased. During the last great inflationary decade, from 1971 to 1980, gold outperformed equities by a factor of 10 - ten! This is the essence of the flight to hard assets: the search for value that cannot be printed.

Currency Erosion

3. Equities in Nominal Boom, Real Decline

Equities can appear to thrive in an inflationary world, but the reality is less kind. Companies raise prices to match inflation, but input costs rise even faster. Energy, labour, and debt all become more expensive. But watch out - profits shrink in real terms.The result is an inflationary bull market - one that looks spectacular on paper but quietly erodes purchasing power. The chart goes up, yet the investor “mysteriously” grows poorer.

4. Gold Miners and the Leverage Trap

Gold miners offer extreme leverage to gold’s price movements. When gold rises faster than mining costs, profits soar. But when inflation spreads into fuel, wages, and equipment, the advantage vanishes. Late-stage inflation often squeezes miners hardest - especially the smaller juniors. A big part of costs is energy so if oil dips then junior miners rise .This is why ETFs like VanEck Junior Gold Miners (GDXJ) swing so wildly: they are turbocharged plays on both gold and confidence.

Loss of Control - Dollar Devalues

5. The Loss of Control

Eventually, inflation becomes chaos. Bonds collapse as yields rise uncontrollably. Governments respond with price controls or capital restrictions. Markets lose faith in policy itself.This is the next phase - the loss of control - when gold ceases to be an investment and reverts to what it always was: money. Equities, once buoyed by cheap printed liquidity, deflate both nominally and in real terms. The public, sensing betrayal, retreats from all paper promises.

6. The Dollar’s Paradox

The dollar remains a special case. It is both the world’s problem and its refuge. When crises erupt, capital still runs to it - the “scramble for dollars". Yet this safety is temporary. If confidence in US fiscal discipline breaks, there will be no replacement large enough to absorb the shock.

The Great Reset

The next rotation will be into gold, commodities, and perhaps a few disciplined currencies such as the Swiss franc or Singapore dollar. Analysts are already calling this “the post-dollar rotation”.

7. Recap: The Phases of a Currency’s Decline

(1) First comes monetary expansion, when printing presses hum and markets cheer.

(2) Next, currency erosion, when inflation bites and investors seek shelter.

(3) Then, loss of control, when policy fails and faith collapses.

(4) Finally, the reset, when a new measure of value emerges.

Gold survives every reset because it is not anyone’s liability. Fiat currencies depend on promises ... and promises are the first casualty of panic.

8. Gold and Equities in the Endgame

In the early stages of devaluation, both gold and equities rise together. Later, gold continues upward while equities stagnate. Finally, as trust in paper disintegrates, gold becomes the numeraire ie the yardstick by which all else is measured. This is why serious investors still see gold as the foundation of wealth, a yard stick and they store of wealth, not a mere trade.

9. The Modern Parallel

Today’s conditions are eerily familiar: soaring deficits, massive liquidity, and record asset prices. Real yields wobble. The Fed’s balance sheet is swollen. Debt-to-GDP ratios have entered uncharted territory.It is the same old pattern, only on a global scale. The illusion of wealth persists, but the repricing of reality is already underway.

10. What could derail the trend?

Gold - at October 2025 - looks technically overbought in the short term but remains in a structural uptrend. The last great bull run in the 1970s only ended when two conditions appeared together: belief that the Fed had conquered inflation and real GDP growth running twice its long-term average. Neither condition applies today. If anything, industrial commodities like copper and oil hint at weakness, while the Fed’s recent rate cuts show tolerance for higher inflation. Trade frictions between the US and China reinforce a stagflationary backdrop – historically positive for gold.

11. The 1970s Playbook

Is history a guide? Some people think so.

From 1973 to 1983, gold rose fivefold while the S&P 500 gained just 50%. Four stagflationary episodes saw inflation peaking in 1970, 1974, 1980 and 1982. Gold typically rallied into recessions, dipped 19% after the first rate hike, then recovered within months. Bull runs broke only when GDP soared above 4-5% in post-recession booms – conditions absent today.

When to step in and out of gold?

12. Valuation Upside

1. Buy the dips - use technical measures RSI, ADX, Volume, moving averages, momentum

2. Watch miners' margins - use fundamentals spot - AISC

3. Get out when (more likely "if") gold's refuge value falls - use macro indicators: inflation mastered, growth returns, fiscal crisis over. 

Miners' operating leverage

Gold-mining equities have operating leverage to the gold price. You can see that if you compare the share price of the ETF SGLN with the miners GDXJ and AUCP.  Gold has risen ~30% in the last three months, these senior and junior miners ~60%.

When gold rises faster than miners' input costs, margins explode. Even using a conservative $3,900/oz gold price (spot < futures), gold-mining equities appear undervalued (sic) by around 60%. Shares today imply a $3,000 gold price - this is about 25% below spot - and developers could gain materially more as projects de-risk (ie  gap between costs and price of gold widens further). 

Under one blue-sky scenario of $17,000 gold within five years, valuations of miners could rise over 600%, with multiples expanding as the bull market strengthens.

Example:

All-in sustaining cost (AISC): $1,300–1,600 per oz

Cash cost: $1,000–1,200 per oz

Break-even: $1,400–1,500 per oz

When gold trades above $2,400 per oz, margins can double or triple, explaining the strong performance of ETFs such as GDXJ.

Input Costs

But if AISC begin to rise faster than gold in dollar terms, margins - and share prices - could tumble:

12. Closing Reflection

Gold remains the clearest long-term hedge against monetary excess, fiscal instability and rising geopolitical threats. The short-term pullbacks are buy-the-dip opportunities within a structural uptrend supported by policy, politics and history. The Miners have operating leverage and rise faster ... although beware if miners' costs start to inflate faster than the price of gold in dollar terms.

If a currency can be trashed, it can also be rebuilt. But rebuilding requires trust and this is something that cannot be printed or borrowed. Gold, indifferent to politics and policy, endures through each cycle of human "error". That is its unquestionable and unanswerable strength.

© 2025 Living in the Air - Essay adapted from discussions on global macroeconomics and the future of money.

NEXT Three GOLD ETFs worth considering

Glossary

Nominal Price

The face value of a good or asset, expressed in current money terms and not adjusted for inflation. A rise in nominal price may simply reflect a fall in the currency’s purchasing power rather than a true increase in value.

Real Assets

Tangible things that have intrinsic worth because they are useful, such as property, commodities, and infrastructure - as opposed to financial claims or paper instruments. The value of real assets tends to hold up when currencies weaken - hence the illusion that they are going up in price... but no not at all: real assets are holding their value while the currency gets debased meaning you need more of it to buy the same quantity of real asset.

Hard Assets

A subset of real assets that are physically finite and durable: gold, silver, oil, and land. They act as stores of value during monetary instability.

Monetary Excess

A condition where the supply of money expands faster than the growth of goods and services, leading to inflation and speculation.

Bull Market

A sustained period of rising asset prices, often fuelled by optimism, liquidity, or loose monetary policy. Bull markets can exist in both nominal and inflation-adjusted terms.

Purchasing Power

The amount of goods and services that one unit of currency can buy. It declines as prices rise — hence inflation erodes purchasing power.

Price Controls

Government-imposed limits on the prices of goods or services, used to curb inflation. Historically they distort supply and lead to shortages or black markets.

Capital Restrictions

Regulations that limit the movement of money across borders - for example, taxes on foreign exchange or limits on withdrawing funds. Capital restrictions are usually introduced in times of financial crisis to protect a currency.... beware!

Policy (Fed Policy)

The set of actions taken by the US Federal Reserve to influence economic activity on employment and inflation. These are mainly through setting interest rates, controlling the money supply, and managing the size of its balance sheet. Interest rates are very important to a stable economic system, including the government's ability to pay the interest on its debt.

Nominal and Real Terms

“Nominal” refers to figures measured in current prices; “real” means adjusted for inflation. For example, wages may rise 5 % nominally but fall in real terms if inflation is higher.

Paper Promises

A figurative expression for financial assets - shares, bonds, and bank deposits - that depend on the issuer’s solvency and trustworthiness, unlike gold or land which have intrinsic value.

Fiscal Discipline

The ability of a government to control its spending and borrowing. Weak fiscal discipline - large, persistent deficits - undermines confidence in a currency.

Numeraire

An economic term meaning the standard by which value is measured. In stable times the numeraire is the national currency; in crises, gold often resumes that role.

Real Yields

The return on bonds after adjusting for inflation. When real yields fall or turn negative, non-yielding assets like gold become more attractive.

Fed’s Balance Sheet

A record of all assets and liabilities held by the Federal Reserve. It expands when the Fed buys securities or injects liquidity into the banking system - a process known as quantitative easing.

Debt-to-GDP Ratios

A measure of a country’s indebtedness, comparing total government debt to annual national output. High ratios signal that debt growth is outpacing economic growth, raising default and inflation risks.

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2. THREE GOLD ETFs WORTH CONSIDERING

13 October 2025

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1. Reflections on portfolio construction

2. Trader’s Take section in gold ETFs

See previous article.

1. Balancing Gold with the Real Economy

A sound portfolio doesn’t live on bullion alone. Gold provides the bedrock - protection against monetary folly and market tremors - but lasting wealth also needs exposure to the productive world. Alongside a core weighted towards gold and miners, investors should hold select equities in energy and industrials, the two sectors most closely tied to tangible output and inflation dynamics. This combination anchors the portfolio in real assets while still capturing the pulse of economic growth.

2. ETFs Worth Considering

SGLN – iShares Physical Gold ETC
TER 0.12 % | AUM ≈ £13 billion
SGLN is the simplest sterling-denominated route to hold physical gold. Each share is backed by allocated bullion (?) stored in London vaults, tracking the spot price almost perfectly and remaining unhedged to the US dollar. It’s a low-cost, transparent way to preserve purchasing power or hedge against monetary excess.

AUCP – Legal & General Gold Mining UCITS ETF
TER 0.65 % | AUM ≈ $400 million
AUCP tracks the FTSE Gold Mines Index, providing exposure to leading global gold-mining companies such as Newmont, Barrick and Agnico Eagle. It sits between pure bullion and high-risk junior miners, offering leverage to gold prices without extreme volatility. In strong bull phases, AUCP tends to outperform the metal; in corrections, it retreats faster. Its higher TER reflects the costs of maintaining sector purity and global weighting.

GDXJ – VanEck Junior Gold Miners UCITS ETF
TER 0.55 % | AUM ≈ $4 billion
GDXJ invests in smaller, fast-growing exploration and development miners. It brings higher potential returns - and greater volatility - than large-cap funds like AUCP. When gold rallies, juniors can surge; when sentiment turns, they can fall hard. Best suited to investors who understand the cycle and can ride the swings of this high-beta segment.

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Trader’s Take: How to blend the three in one gold strategy

Together, these three funds offer a complete exposure to gold’s ecosystem: SGLN anchors the portfolio in physical metal, the ultimate store of value; AUCP adds torque through major miners leveraged to gold prices; and GDXJ supplies the speculative edge via junior explorers with outsized upside in a bull cycle. In a stagflationary world where real assets regain power over paper promises, a balanced mix of roughly 50% SGLN, 30% AUCP and 20% GDXJ offers both defence and opportunity - the timeless metal, the producers, and the dreamers who dig it out of the ground.

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DO WE WANT OR NEED A DIGITAL ID CARD

11 October 2025

What do they really want?? They want us to have nothing and be happy.

What do we want? Freedom, security and equality.

Technocrat or humanist - Blair v Field.

Of these, freedom for us individualists is the greatest. (In that video, the author mentions China. If it "works" for them, it could be because they put the community first, before the individual, and they seek harmony over freedom.)

Freedom means free to do, think, and live according to my own choices, with minimal interference from the state, big business, or social coercions. It's freedom from interference and it's freedom to develop my maximum according to my possibilities.

It's a qualitative thing, how you feel, but could some quantitative scale be assembled against which the unique ID number identifier proposal could be judged?

The benefits Starmer offers in that video clip are poppycock. The implementation risks are in that video. Where are the costs to us living under this freaky control regime? We in the West no longer live in true democracies, and unfortunately the "technocrats" who govern operate a global governance organisation, they view government as a tool that functions best under competent leadership, irrespective of the democratic quality of the system, except that recent leaders defer to Washington and show little sign of competence - look at this ID card idea ... will it turn out like HS2 or the poll tax or the Covid lockdowns - examples where competent leaders may still make poor decisions if they lack a robust guiding philosophy. Except rhat now we have Starmer.

Contrast this with sadly departed Frank Field, influenced by a fading Christian socialist tradition. Frank Field emphasised the dangers of rationalism (aka technical competence) in politics. He advocated for acknowledging human nature's limitations and promoting "self-interested altruism".

What's left of the benefits of being alive today? To answer this q, just assess how much control we individuals would have left over our lives across political, economic, social, digital, and psychological dimensions.

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KEY DATES RECAP OF UKRAINE PROXY WAR

6 October 2025

Russophobia is a good label, but this is a string of eurasian wars going back a long long way. 

The privatisations (Maggie in UK and in Europe there was eg Schroder) of the 1990s and 2000s freed up a lot of capital and some got invested in eastern europe and ukraine - investors want a return on that. 

Then there's been falling rate of profit for the last 40 yrs. To restore profits and productivity means reducing input costs and forever opening new markets.

I'd say this was why we have these forever wars - they are forever revenue streams for the MIC 

Plus, dual use technology (military / commercial - amazon aws, tesla starlink...) created The Magnificent Seven (now plus Palantir)....that's digital capitalism.

It's especially bad for Europe with the failure of sanctions and blowback.

This mismanagement created by our elites led by "the donor class" would be extremely bad for their futures.

The result: in Ukraine, an unwinnable war that the West cannot afford to end for economic reasons - trapped between hubris and collapse. Call it what you like - Russian expansionism or Western post-colonial liberal imperialism.

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KEY DATES IN EURASIAN HISTORY AND GEOPOLITICS

• 434 – 453 Attila the Hun – Huns raid Europe; Rome weakened.
• 882 – 1240 Kievan Rus’ – Prince Oleg unites Slavic tribes under Viking rule.
• 988 Conversion to Christianity – aligns Kievan Rus’ with Byzantium.
• 1054 The Great Schism – split between Catholic Rome and Orthodox Constantinople.
• 1206 – 1227 Genghis Khan – creates the Mongol Empire, opens Silk Road.
• 1240 Mongol invasion – Kievan Rus’ collapses; birth of Russia, Ukraine, Belarus.
• 1853 – 1856 First Crimean War – Britain defends route to India.
• 1904 & 1920 Halford Mackinder – formulates Heartland Theory of geopolitics.
• 1917 Communist Revolution – birth of the Soviet Union.
• 1945 – 1989/91 WWII and Cold War – Soviet control of Central Europe.
• 1994 Clinton – NATO expansion announced (Brussels & Prague).
• 2004 Orange Revolution – Yanukovych ousted; pro-West turn.
• 2007 Putin’s Munich Speech – warns NATO expansion a “serious provocation.”
• 2008 Bucharest Summit – Ukraine & Georgia promised NATO membership.
• 2014 Maidan Revolution – Yanukovych deposed; Crimea annexed; Donbas war.
• 2014 & 2015 Minsk Agreements – ceasefires fail to hold.
• 2022 – present Russia’s “Special Military Operation” in Ukraine.

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KEY ECONOMIC REASONS FOR CONTINUING EURASIAN WAR - WHY THE WEST CANNOT PULL OUT

• The West is trapped by its own money, politics, and pride. 

• 1990s - 2000s - Western banks and governments pour capital from privatisations into Eastern Europe, expecting profits from cheap labour and resources - especially Ukraine’s wealth.

• 1980s on -  productivity and "profit rate" falling for rhe last 40 years at home, creating economic necessity to reduce input costs, improve efficiencies, open new markets

• 1955 on Forever wars fought not to win, but to sustain the system behind it.

     - 1950 - 53 - Proof of Concept - Korea

     - 1955 - 75 - Pilot: Vietnam

     -  9/11 - Bin Laden accuses U.S. of: occupying the Arabian Peninsula ; supporting crusader entity Israel’s oppression of Palestinians ; killing Muslims through sanctions and bombings

     - 2001 on  - Rollout - Globalisation of the concept : US declares global, borderless War on Terror. Rollout to Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, Libya, Yemen, Iran, Venezuela? Continuous or "forever wars".

     - 2022 - The wars feed a system of digital capitalism, where defence and tech giants develop latest techno profit from dual-use innovations — drones, satellites, AI, and surveillance....meg7.

• 1990s - 2008, 2009 - 2021 The conflict in Ukraine itself has become a revenue stream for the donor class, not a strategic mission in the interests of the American people.

• 2023 - Sanctions backfired, weakening European economies and further driving up debt, energy costs, and public discontent.

• Now - Ending the war would mean admitting policy failure, exposing elite mismanagement and corruption, destruction of careers, legal pursuit and prison

• The result: an unwinnable war that the West cannot afford to end - trapped between hubris and collapse. Russian expansionism or Western post-colonial liberal imperialism?

I would say you can put it down to fear of the Russian bear or you can go on to highlight American global agapani or you can go further and identify the economic reasons behind this war and why the West cannot pull out.

[End]

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FULL ENGLISH BREAKFAST

3 October 2025

A greasy-spoon-breakfast

This is the Sharia-compliant English Full Halal Breakfast, so please note the plate behind is the original native version. Also noticed: no women - this would be because they are at home taking care of the bairns. And no rice, no veggies.

For the class-conscious of yesteryear (you don't see many greasy spoons these days - we're all middle class now) the trouble was the cafe's in the wrong place - it's in middle class London and you need to go to a lower class neighbourhood to get rhe real full flavour of a Full English Breakfast.

Next time, we will adventure into a more working-class area. Then I can take the photos, including of yesterday's tomato ketchup drying on the table ... that kind of thing. THE REAL DEAL.

An Full English Breakfast can only be equalled by a Full Scottish Breakfast. Unfortunately, I didn't find haggis slice or tattie scone on the menu, and sadly no pickled beetroot on the table. For drinks, there was A. G. Barr's famous Irn Bru, it's true, but I wanted unsugared - you have to say it twice - "no sugar please" strong builder’s tea.

I forgot the sides of square sausage - Lorne it's called. 

Yes, this is cholesterol-heavy comfort foods, soaked up with tea, and cholesterol is back on healthy menus.

Eat in luxury

[End]

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UKRAINE - WHY THE WEST CANNOT WALK AWAY

30 September 2025

- Why The West Cannot Stop Fighting the War in Ukraine 

- Why the West has No Reverse Gear 

- Why the only option is to Double Down On Failure.

Here are six fundamental reasons.

1. Liquidity Pipeline – European privatisations and savings poured into U.S. equity markets from the privatisations of the 1990s and early 2000s. That capital, recycled through Wall Street and shadow banking, demands returns from Eastern Europe, especially Ukraine. The banks want their pound of flesh.

• 2002 Germany: Schröder’s tax reform let firms sell cross-holdings tax-free, releasing billions for investment into U.S. dollars in stocks and bonds.

• France (1990s–2000s): Privatisations of France Télécom, Air France and Renault freed more capital, that flowed to Wall Street.

• Italy (Prodi–Berlusconi era): Sales of ENI, Telecom Italia and Autostrade drove Italian savings, this time, into U.S. Treasuries.

• Post-2008 GFC: Europe’s tighter bank rules pushed investment out of this regulated sector and into U.S. hedge funds and private equity - the “shadow-banking” boom, as it's called.

Reason 1 : - Finance demands a return on investment

2. Productivity Crisis – Falling productivity these last 40 years across the West pressures profits. Access to cheap resources, labour, and new markets is vital. Russia blocks this. War becomes a way to prise open frontiers of profit.

Lower productivity → thinner margins → pressure to cut costs and find new revenue streams. That pressure expresses itself in four ways:

• Reducing input costs (energy, minerals, resources)

• Reducing labour costs (off-shoring, precarious work, gig economy, WFH, wage stagnation)

• Rationalising production (Six Sigma, automation, AI)

• Opening new sales markets.

Reason 2 : - Restore profitability to stave off a crisis of capitalism

3. Digital Capitalism – Tech and defence firms thrive on dual-use (military / civilian) innovations: AI, satellites, surveillance. For them, a “forever war” means a forever revenue stream, regardless of who's winning on the ground. This is a big source of revenues for the donor class.

Examples:

• Amazon AWS & Microsoft Azure host Pentagon and CIA data.

• Google builds AI for drone targeting.

• Palantir sells battlefield analytics to Ukraine.

• SpaceX Starlink provides frontline ISR communications under Pentagon funding

• Buying up influencers and their social media platforms - eg twitter, tiktok - and correcting the algorithms to support the sponsor class and obtain future leaders' alignment.

Exposing oligarchs

The £1m donation

This “digital war machine” thrives on ongoing conflict, it doesn’t really need victory, indeed victory may end its revenue streams. For venture capitalists and contractors, a forever war is a forever market. Whether Ukraine wins or loses matters less than the continuation of DoD contracts, subsidies, and data monopolies.

Reason 3 : - A forever war means a forever revenue stream for Big Tech

4. Avoiding Failure in Europe – Sanctions have backfired, confiscations only further reduce credibility, leaving Europe weaker, indebted, and angry. Ending the war now would expose elite mismanagement and the continued existence of the EU; war keeps the parties united against a common enemy.

• What values or morals do our elite leaders really have? Don't they align with Washington to further their interests and power rather than represent the people who elected them?

• Just consider what has happened to the democratic process or how the people's freedoms are increasingly frustrated. 

• Continuation of the war postpones the eventual day of  reckoning for these people.... who or how can we stop this killing which profits the few at the top?

Reason 4 : - To stop now would mean bringing the culprits to Justice - how to do this?

5. The Endgame – Victory for the West against Russia would pin Russia in place geopolitically, secure Ukraine’s resources for central bank balance sheets, and free America to pivot to China. Defeat risks NATO’s collapse, euro / EU instability and implosion, and even escalation to World War Three, never mind the power, futures and wealth of existing elites.

Reason 5 : - Victory would deliver geopolitical defeat over Russia and open up access to Ukraine's resources. Defeat would be a defeat of The West, its credibility and institutions.

Here is an expanded paragraph in your style — same tone, same cadence — with sharper emphasis on soft-power perks, lifestyle privileges, and the personal incentives that bind the EU–Atlantic elite to the system:

6. Fingers in Pie - Europe’s elite defend Ukraine not out of principle or moral rectitude, but because their own privileges, perks and soft-power networks depend on keeping the system alive.

Behind all this economic and corporate interest sits the soft-power ecosystem that keeps the whole elite structure obedient and aligned. 

The top brass who run the EU and its satellite institutions enjoy a lifestyle that depends on never rocking the boat: children in international schools with fees "absorbed"; endless “conferences” in Davos, Brussels, Singapore, Dubai - week-long holidays disguised as policy forums; salaries, working week and pensions that no normal European could ever dream of; diplomatic immunities, expense allowances and tax exemptions that insulate them from the economic pain they inflict on others. 

This is the real glue of the system, the comfortable capture of a managerial class - maybe two or three million members of the elite, banking and corporate governance, government, MSM - whose personal incentives are perfectly aligned with Washington, global finance and the shadow-banking world. 

Once you see how these perks function as a form of soft coercion, you understand why none of these people will ever argue for peace, restraint, sovereignty or strategic independence. Their lives depend on the opposite.

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Some further light reading

European economic collapse and democratic despotism with Glen Diesen and Alex Krainer.

Why won't Europe exit the war? The answer is alarming

[END]

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HISTORY RHYMES - FROM ALEXANDER TO AMERICA

28 September 2025

History Rhymes - From Alexander to America

1. The Rise of Macedon

Alexander the Great took a small Balkan kingdom and turned it into the largest empire the world had yet seen.

In little more than a decade, his armies swept through Persia, Egypt, and deep into Asia.

It was dazzling... but fragile - built on one man’s genius, charisma, and willpower.

2. The Fall of Macedon

Alexander died suddenly in 323 BC.

With no strong institutions to hold his empire together, his generals (the Diadochi) carved up the empire.

What was unity became patchwork: Macedonia, Egypt, Seleucid Asia, each fighting for supremacy.

The legacy was cultural, not political: Hellenistic civilisation spread, but the empire itself shattered.

3. The Rise of America

From 1945, the United States inherited global leadership.

Its reach was unmatched: military bases worldwide, the dollar as reserve currency, technology dominance and culture as soft power.

After 1991, America enjoyed its “unipolar moment”, the sole and unrivaled superpower, right through to the serious rise of China in from about 2017.

4. The Strains of Empire

Overreach followed: endless wars in the Middle East for control of the energy supply, twin spiralling debts, a semi delusional ideology of exceptionalism and a belief that one country could police the globe.

But like Macedon, the empire stretched further than its base could sustain.

The façade of invincibility cracked.

5. The Fragmentation Today

Under Biden and Trump, America is no longer a unifying empire - unless you say that it is unifying the global South against itself. It is faltering.

Retreat from Europe, repositioning out to the second island ring in East Asia, and chaos in West Asia... all point to withdrawal.

Allies, once loyal clients, are hedging their bets: Europe submits and clings to America’s coattails, Israel defies (as usual), Asia balances between Washington and Beijing.

What remains looks like Alexander’s world after his death — a multi-polar patchwork of rival powers.

6. The Rhyme of History

One-man dependency: Alexander then, is this what Trump is trying to create now?

Overstretch: the usual disease of empire.

Fragmentation: Alexander’s generals then, America’s vassal states / the EU and Britain today.

Legacy: Western civilisation and influence may remain for 500 more years, but the empire itself is disintegrating.

Conclusion

“History doesn’t repeat, but it rhymes”. (Supposedly Mark Twain.)

Alexander’s empire rose dazzlingly fast and collapsed just as suddenly.

The American empire, handed over by Britain after the last world war, and extended in the typically excessive pride of emperors, is now showing its age in the same patterns of exhaustion and fracture.

How the wheel turns, break up from within, ordinary people finally pushing back against their elites.

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