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Thursday, 18 December 2025

GOLD APPROACHES NEW HIGHS

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18 December 2025

Gold Approaches Record as Traders Watch US Data and Venezuela


1. FACTS

What has just happened

Gold has risen again and is trading close to record levels, near 4,350 dollars an ounce. This follows a modest pullback in the previous session that ended a five day winning streak.

The all time high stands just above 4,381 dollars an ounce, set in October. Gold is now up more than 60 percent this year and is on track for its strongest annual performance since 1979.

Silver has climbed to a fresh peak above 66 dollars an ounce. Platinum has surged to its highest level since 2008.

Investors are focused on imminent US inflation data and upcoming public remarks by senior Federal Reserve officials. The Federal Reserve has delivered three consecutive rate cuts, which support assets that do not pay interest. Markets currently assign less than a 25 percent probability to another cut in January.

Gold has also been supported by geopolitical escalation in Venezuela. President Donald Trump ordered a blockade of sanctioned oil tankers and is pressuring Nicolas Maduro amid a military build up and the threat of land strikes.

Platinum strength has been linked to a European Union proposal to ease emissions rules for new cars, extending the expected life of combustion engines. Platinum and palladium are used in catalytic converters.

Source: Bloomberg Markets
https://www.bloomberg.com/markets/commodities

2. FORCES

The pressures pushing prices higher

2.1 Inflation And Monetary Policy

Inflation data shapes expectations for future interest rates. Lower expected rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold and silver.

Even before the data is released, the tone of Federal Reserve speakers can move markets.

2.2 Capital Rotation Away From Bonds And Fiat

Investors are continuing to reduce exposure to government debt and major currencies. Central bank buying of gold adds a steady source of demand that is less sensitive to daily market noise.

2.3 Geopolitical Risk Premium

Escalation around Venezuela raises the probability of energy disruption and wider regional instability. Such events increase demand for assets viewed as monetary insurance.

2.4 Growth And Equity Valuation Risk

A slowing global economy supports defensive positioning. Elevated equity valuations encourage portfolio diversification into non correlated assets.

2.5 European Auto Policy Shifts

Easing emissions rules would extend the use of combustion engines. That increases expected demand for platinum group metals used in exhaust treatment systems.

3. FRICTIONS

What can slow or interrupt the trend

3.1 Overextension Risk

Gold has risen very rapidly this year. Fast moves increase the risk of consolidation as investors take profits.

3.2 Uncertainty About Further Rate Cuts

Despite recent easing, markets are not convinced that further cuts are imminent. This limits near term upside unless inflation data surprises.

3.3 Geopolitics Is Unstable By Nature

Military and sanctions risks can escalate or fade suddenly. Markets can overshoot on headlines, then correct.

3.4 Policy Dependence In Platinum

Auto regulation remains political. Policy can change again, making platinum more volatile than purely monetary metals.

4. FUTURES

Plausible paths from here

4.1 Base Case

A period of consolidation is likely after such a strong year. A steadier upward trend can follow if rate expectations remain supportive and risk premiums persist.

Forecasts cited by market analysts cluster around 4,500 dollars an ounce in 2026.

4.2 Bull Case

If inflation remains persistent while growth slows, gold can benefit from both fear and easing expectations. BNP Paribas has suggested a credible pathway toward 5,000 dollars sometime next year if multiple supportive forces align.

4.3 Bear Case

A renewed rise in real yields or a stronger dollar would pressure precious metals. A strong equity rally combined with higher yields could reduce hedging demand.

4.4 Silver And Platinum

Silver behaves as a hybrid asset, part monetary metal and part industrial metal. It tends to outperform gold when liquidity improves and growth fears ease.

Platinum remains highly sensitive to regulatory signals and industrial demand expectations.

5. CAUSE AND EFFECT LINKAGES

Why gold and silver prices move

Gold and silver prices are shaped by two broad categories of drivers. Protection related factors and performance related factors. The balance between them changes across cycles.

5.1 Protection Related Factors

These relate to capital preservation.

• Inflation risk eroding the real value of cash and bonds
• Currency debasement fears driven by deficits and monetary expansion
• Geopolitical conflict and sanctions risk
• Sovereign debt sustainability concerns
• Declining trust in institutional competence

Gold is the clearest expression of protection demand.

5.2 Performance Related Factors

These relate to opportunity cost and relative returns.

• Real interest rates and expectations of rate cuts
• Strength or weakness of the US dollar
• Relative performance versus equities and bonds
• Momentum and positioning flows
• Industrial demand, which matters more for silver

Silver often outperforms gold when growth expectations stabilise.

6. OTHER NEWS FACTORS THAT MAY HAVE BEEN MISSED

Context beyond the last one or two days

Several slower moving but news relevant factors continue to shape precious metal prices.

• Ongoing central bank gold purchases by emerging market states
• Continued efforts to reduce reliance on the US dollar in trade settlement
• Weak demand for long dated sovereign bonds
• Rising fiscal stress in advanced economies
• Strong inflows into physically backed precious metal ETFs
• Supply constraints in silver mining due to declining grades and underinvestment

These factors form the background conditions that make short term news repeatedly reinforce the same direction.

7. GLOSSARY OF KEY TERMS

Precious metals
Gold, silver, platinum and palladium are metallic chemical elements valued for their resistance to corrosion, electrical behaviour, catalytic properties, and their long role in monetary history.

Periodic table of elements
The periodic table arranges elements by atomic number and electron configuration. Precious metals appear where they do because of their atomic structure. Scarcity is an economic concept linked to supply and demand, not a principle of chemical classification.

Bullion
Physical precious metal held as bars or coins.

Monetary easing
Central bank action that lowers interest rates or increases liquidity.

Safe haven
An asset perceived to retain value during periods of stress.

Real yields
Interest rates adjusted for inflation expectations.

Parabolic surge
A very rapid price rise that often leads to consolidation.

If you want next, I can:

• Cut this to a shorter opinionated blog version
• Add charts and captions to match your visual style
• Link this explicitly to your empire currency thesis

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Wednesday, 17 December 2025

CHIANG MAI WILDLIFE

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Chiang Mai And Native Wildlife - What Is Real, What Is Ethical

17 December 2025

Chiang Mai offers some of Thailand’s most authentic wildlife experiences, provided expectations are realistic and choices are ethical. This is not safari territory. Wildlife encounters centre on rescued elephants, forest ecosystems, and birdlife rather than large predators. The experience rewards patience, ethics, and an interest in landscape rather than spectacle.

Doi Suthep Pui National Park

1. Overview

Chiang Mai is one of the better places in Thailand to see native wildlife, provided expectations are realistic and choices are made carefully. It is not a safari destination, but it does offer genuine forest biodiversity and some of Southeast Asia’s strongest ethical animal encounters.

2. Wild Animals In Natural Settings

National parks and forest areas around Chiang Mai host genuinely wild animals, although sightings are never guaranteed.

What visitors may see includes macaques and leaf monkeys, barking deer, civets, porcupines, monitor lizards, snakes, and an exceptional diversity of birds, butterflies, and insects.

Best places include Doi Inthanon National Park, Doi Suthep-Pui National Park, and forest areas around Mae Taeng.

Reality check. Thailand is not a big-mammal safari destination. Elephants and tigers are extremely rare in the wild near Chiang Mai. Birdlife is the real highlight.

3. Ethical Elephant Encounters

Ethical elephant sanctuaries are Chiang Mai’s strongest wildlife experience if chosen responsibly.

Ethical means no riding, no chains, no performances, and elephants allowed to roam, feed, and bathe naturally.

Well-regarded sanctuaries include Elephant Nature Park and Kindred Spirit Elephant Sanctuary. Some programmes at Elephant Jungle Sanctuary may be ethical, but it depends on the specific programme so it should be checked carefully.

Why this matters. Elephants are native to Thailand, and most resident animals were previously abused in logging or tourism. This is conservation-through-care, not entertainment.

4. Rescue And Conservation Centres

There are also controlled environments focused on education rather than wilderness experience.

Examples include Chiang Mai Zoo (mixed reputation), insect museums and butterfly farms, and reptile rescue centres.

These are good for short visits, educational context, and families. The limitation is that animals are not living natural lives, so these places are best treated as supplements rather than highlights.

5. Experiences To Avoid

Avoid tiger temples, selfie zoos, drugged animal photo opportunities, crocodile or snake shows, and any venue advertising guaranteed tiger interaction.

If an animal is calm enough for close selfies, it is almost always sedated, restrained, or abused.

6. Best Overall Wildlife Experience

If choosing only two experiences, the best combination is an ethical elephant sanctuary (half or full day) plus a national park hike with a local guide.

This combination gives real animals, ethical interaction, and strong landscape, nature, and cultural context.

7. Bottom Line

Chiang Mai offers authentic animal experiences, but not spectacle. The rewards go to visitors who accept fewer animals, more patience, and better ethics.

------------------------------------------------------------

References

References and further reading (science, conservation, photos):

• Ethical elephant conservation

Elephant Nature Park (rescue and rehabilitation model):

https://www.elephantnaturepark.org

Research on captive elephant welfare in Thailand:

https://www.worldanimalprotection.org/latest/news/elephants-tourism-thailand

• Doi Inthanon National Park – biodiversity

Official park information:

https://www.dnp.go.th/parkdetail.aspx?id=24

Bird diversity research (Inthanon as a hotspot):

https://www.birdlife.org/projects/doi-inthanon

Photo reference (habitats, waterfalls, wildlife):

https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/Category:Doi_Inthanon_National_Park

• Doi Suthep–Pui National Park

Official overview:

https://www.dnp.go.th/parkdetail.aspx?id=21

Flora and fauna background:

https://www.thainationalparks.com/doi-suthep-pui-national-park

Photo reference:

https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/Category:Doi_Suthep-Pui_National_Park

• Thai wildlife reality check

Overview of Thailand’s mammal populations and habitat loss:

https://www.iucn.org/regions/asia/countries/thailand

Birdlife and insects as primary visible wildlife:

https://www.audubon.org/news/why-thailand-is-paradise-birders

This should give you both the scientific grounding and visual material to explore further before planning.

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WHY ARE OUR LEADERS SEEM SO IDIOTIC

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17 December 2025

1. POWER IS ABOUT PRESERVING THE SYSTEM

Yes. Power is about keeping the system alive — the system, the process — never mind the disastrous outcomes it can produce.

Disastrous, because we repeatedly choose incompetents to lead us. We choose comfort, what is familiar, rather than those with technical merit — the experts.

This is something independent thinkers find hard to understand.

2. WHY DO WE CHOOSE THE WRONG LEADERS

Why do we choose idiots over rational, thinking people to lead us?

The answer lies in what Aristotle called the body politic. He used the body as a metaphor for society. Every part has a function: the brain thinks; the arms and legs act; the organs sustain life.

But most important of all is the heart. The heart sustains the rhythm of the whole. It keeps everything together. That, Aristotle argued, is the role of the politician.

3. COMFORT, FEAR AND IDENTITY

Most people feel afraid if change comes too fast, if understanding is too radical, or if vision stretches too far ahead.

They want someone who reflects their values, their feelings, their identity back to them. This is how leaders build trust and loyalty.

Leaders themselves are driven by power, wealth, control, and the desire to please — and to manipulate emotion through propaganda.

There is little room at the top for brilliance. It is too frightening. People prefer familiarity, comfort, and leaders with big hearts.

Even highly intelligent leaders must dumb down their messages into the comfort zone of their followers to retain trust and influence.

4. WHERE THE BRILLIANT MINDS GO

The bigger brains go elsewhere.

Into research and technology, building the things we will need.
Into the arts — the authentic ones — helping us make sense of experience and pushing beyond it.

But these people threaten power. Artists present radical, uncomfortable visions. Innovators move too fast. Thinkers challenge the rules we live by.

You are not going to follow them.

5. PROPAGANDA AND THE HERD

Safety before truth. Appearance over substance. Feeling before reasoning.

Propaganda is a special form of Aristotle’s rhetoric:

Ethos — the speaker’s credibility and authority.
Pathos — appealing to emotion: fear, anger, belonging.
Logos — logic and data, often selectively applied.

If we are tribal or herd animals, belonging becomes the first rule of survival. Anyone threatening unity with unfamiliar ideas is cast out.

The group votes for safety and stability at the expense of excellence or long-term survival. That, Aristotle argued, is democracy.

6. IDIOTS AS EMOTIONAL MANAGERS

But perhaps today’s idiots in power are not accidents.

Perhaps they are there precisely because they churn up emotion on behalf of their masters. They create the emotional landscape — values, fears, desires — into which approved messages are poured.

Calling this fake news or misinformation understates what is happening. This is propaganda.

We do not need this kind of leader. We need someone capable of radical rhetoric — capable of persuading us to accept transformative solutions to long-term decline.

The West is in decline. History is repeating itself — Rome, Spain, Holland, Britain. Instead we get emollient solutions that satisfy donors, distract the crowd, and soothe emotions while leading us towards collapse.

These leaders dampen reality, dampen anger, distract attention, and manufacture unity.

That is their function.

7. TRUMP AND THE QUESTION OF A SCRIPT

In Trump’s case, the challenge is real.

He is expected to sell a long-term vision — largely shaped by Steve Miran and Scott Bessent — both to the public and to entrenched neocon elites.

He must inspire and transform. So far, that remains uncertain.

Is Trump an actor on the stage?
Is he part of the Entertainment Division?

And if so — who is writing the script?


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Tuesday, 16 December 2025

N. EIGHT MORE FRUITS UNKNOWN OUTSIDE THAILAND

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16 December 2025
Fruits of SE Asia pt II

A Market Basket of Tropical Fruit – A Field Report



1. Mangosteen (Garcinia mangostana)

Definition: Mangosteen is a tropical fruit prized for its sweet, floral white segments beneath a thick purple rind.

Often called the Queen of Fruits, mangosteen is highly valued across Southeast Asia for its balance of sweetness and acidity. The rind is thick and inedible, but inside are delicate white segments with a clean, almost sherbet-like flavour.

Mangosteen is seasonal and sensitive to handling, which is why it is rarely exported at peak quality. When fresh, it is one of the most refined fruits in the tropics.

2. Custard Apple / Sugar Apple (Annona squamosa)

Definition: A soft, segmented fruit with creamy flesh and a mild vanilla sweetness.

The green, knobbly skin conceals a custard-like interior filled with black seeds. Texture matters more than flavour here – soft, rich, and spoonable when ripe.

It spoils quickly and is best eaten locally, which explains why it remains a regional fruit rather than an international export.

3. Snake Fruit / Salak (Salacca zalacca)

Definition: A scaly-skinned fruit with crisp flesh and a sweet-sour profile.

Named for its reptile-like skin, salak has a firm bite and a complex flavour combining apple, pineapple, and citrus notes. It divides naturally into lobes, each with a central pit.

Its durability makes it a popular snack fruit and one of the easier tropical fruits to transport.

4. Santol (Sandoricum koetjape)

Definition: A thick-skinned fruit with cottony flesh surrounding large seeds.

Santol is common in mainland Southeast Asia and is often eaten with salt, sugar, or chilli. The flesh clings tightly to the seeds and is more about texture than sweetness.

It is also used cooked, particularly in curries, where its mild sourness adds balance.

5. Sapodilla (Manilkara zapota)

Definition: A brown, potato-like fruit with caramel and malt flavours.

Sapodilla has a grainy texture and a flavour reminiscent of brown sugar or toffee. When ripe, it is soft and sweet, though slightly drying on the palate.

Historically, the tree’s latex was used to make chewing gum, which helps explain the flavour association.

6. Rose Apple / Chomphu (Syzygium samarangense)

Definition: A crisp, watery fruit with a mild floral aroma.

These bell-shaped fruits are refreshing rather than sweet. Their texture is closer to a light apple or pear, making them ideal for hot climates.

They are often eaten chilled or with chilli salt, prioritising hydration over intensity.

7. Lime (Citrus aurantiifolia)

Definition: A small, sharp citrus fruit essential to Southeast Asian cooking.

Lime is used more as an ingredient than a snack fruit, providing acidity rather than sweetness. It appears constantly in salads, soups, sauces, and drinks.

Its presence in the basket signals cooking intent rather than casual eating.

8. Jackfruit (Artocarpus heterophyllus) – Prepared

Definition: The world’s largest tree-grown fruit, sold here pre-cut for convenience.

Jackfruit is difficult to prepare whole due to its size, sticky latex, and strong aroma. The bright yellow pods have a distinctive flavour somewhere between mango and banana.

When ripe it is sweet; when unripe it is commonly used as a meat substitute in savoury dishes.

9. Rose Apple – Wrapped (Market Grade)

Definition: Rose apples protected with foam netting to prevent bruising.

The netting indicates fragility and higher market value. These fruits are selected for appearance and texture rather than strong flavour.

Packaging reflects how presentation plays an increasing role in modern Asian fruit markets.

Closing Observation

This basket reflects tropical abundance, seasonality, and local eating habits rather than export logic. Many of these fruits prioritise freshness and texture over transportability, which explains why they remain unfamiliar outside the region.

Together, they illustrate how Southeast Asian fruit culture values variety, immediacy, and climate-appropriate refreshment rather than uniform sweetness.


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Saturday, 13 December 2025

WHAT WE KNOW ABOUT PROPAGANDA

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12 December 2025

How your attitudes are shaped, without your realising it.

PROPAGANDA: HOW MODERN SOCIETIES ARE SHAPED WITHOUT REALISING IT

Taken together, the ten articles summarised here explore propaganda not as crude lies imposed from above, but as a subtle, pervasive system that shapes attitudes, narrows "permissible" thought, and conditions populations to accept their elite by taking down their resistance. Drawing on thinkers such as Jacques Ellul and observing contemporary media, war reporting, and political discourse, the series shows how propaganda works through repetition, emotional framing, moral binaries, and the implicit - systemic really - the implicit, system-driven alignment of governments, journalists, analysts, think tanks and cultural institutions. This doesn't require "managing" or intervention or coordination, only shared assumptions. 

It is most effective precisely because it feels normal, humanitarian, and rational - because it presents itself as common sense rather than persuasion. Propaganda in modern societies is self-organising. Whether examining war narratives, journalism’s loss of scepticism, the theatricalisation of politics, or the psychological exhaustion of Western societies, the core argument remains the same: modern propaganda does not demand belief, it demands acquiescence. It replaces debate with reflex, doubt with certainty, and citizenship with spectatorship. 

The danger is not merely that we are misinformed, but that we gradually lose the capacity - and even the desire - to think independently.

1. JACQUES ELLUL – THE FORMATION OF ATTITUDES

This post draws on Jacques Ellul’s insight that modern propaganda does not primarily aim to persuade us with arguments, but to shape our attitudes over time. Ellul explains how constant exposure to simplified narratives, repetition, and emotional framing gradually conditions individuals to accept certain positions as “normal” or “obvious", long before any explicit opinion is formed. The article argues that modern citizens mistake information overload for freedom of thought, when in reality it produces conformity and passivity.

2. PROPAGANDA, THE WAY IT WORKS, THE HARM IT DOES

This article explains propaganda as a psychological system rather than a set of lies. It shows how slogans, moral binaries, and emotional triggers short-circuit rational thought, encouraging people to react rather than reflect - this is very important to understand, and a proper understanding of propaganda requires knowing the methods and tools employed and just how calculating the campaign is and how coordination is achieved at the system level. The harm lies not only in false beliefs, but in the erosion of independent judgement, social trust, and nuance. Over time, propaganda damages democratic culture by replacing reasoning with reflex and a kind of conditioned instinct.

3. PROPAGANDA FIT FOR THE EDINBURGH FRINGE

Using satire and irony, this post compares modern war propaganda to a theatrical performance - exaggerated, repetitive, Punch and Judy almost, and designed for applause rather than truth. It argues that many media narratives are so absurdly scripted that they resemble fringe comedy, except with deadly consequences. The piece highlights how certainty, moral grandstanding, and simplification replace serious analysis, turning war into entertainment for distant audiences. "Politics is the entertainment division of the MIC."

4. JOURNALISM AS PROPAGANDA

This article argues that journalism has increasingly abandoned its role as a sceptical check on power and become a transmission belt for elite narratives. Rather than investigating, challenging, contextualising, much of the media now amplifies official positions while marginalising dissent. The post shows how framing, omission, and selective outrage can be as powerful as outright censorship in shaping public perception.

5. THE EFFECT OF TROLLS ON THE OUTCOME OF THE WAR IN UKRAINE

This post examines the real and exaggerated role of online trolls in the Ukraine conflict. It argues that while information warfare exists, blaming “trolls” often serves as a convenient excuse to dismiss legitimate scepticism and policy failure. The deeper problem, the article suggests, is not manipulation by outsiders but the fragility of public trust and the unwillingness of elites to tolerate dissent.

6. WESTERN GOVTS, ANALYSTS AND MEDIA – HOW PROPAGANDA WORKS

Here, the focus is on the alignment between governments, think tanks, analysts, and media organisations. The article explains how a narrow consensus forms, how soft power works -  career incentives, access journalism, reputational risk. Once established, this consensus polices itself, marginalising alternative views without needing explicit coordination. Propaganda emerges as a systemic outcome, not a conspiracy. Question outside the box and a journalist loses influence and access and gets relegated to podcasts, substack, the bloggosphere.

7. PROPAGANDA PODCAST

This post introduces and frames this podcast series, which is dedicated to unpacking and "de-fanging" propaganda in modern politics and war. It emphasises slow thinking, historical context, and scepticism as antidotes to emotional manipulation and the tools of the propagandaist's trade. The aim is not to replace one narrative with another, but to help listeners recognise techniques of persuasion and reclaim a minimum of intellectual autonomy.

8. THIS IS NOT OUR WAR

This article challenges the claim that the Ukraine war is a moral crusade binding all Europeans. It argues that public consent has been manufactured through fear, moral pressure, and selective information. The post questions whose interests are truly served and warns that democratic legitimacy erodes when populations are told a war is inevitable, righteous, and beyond debate.

9. IS AMERICA’S MADNESS REVERSIBLE?

This piece reflects on the United States’ political and psychological trajectory, describing a society locked in permanent crisis mode. It argues that constant outrage, polarisation, and moral absolutism are symptoms of deeper institutional and cultural breakdown. The article asks whether restraint, pluralism, and self-doubt — once American strengths — can be recovered, or whether the system now feeds on permanent instability.

10. THE WEST HAS BEEN DEFEATED IN UKRAINE, BUT IS IN DENIAL OF THE…

This post argues that the West has already lost strategically in Ukraine, but cannot admit it without confronting deeper failures of leadership, planning, and honesty. Rather than reassessing, elites double down on narrative control to delay political consequences. The article frames denial as a final stage of propaganda - not to mobilise victory, but to postpone accountability.

1. JACQUES ELLUL – THE FORMATION OF ATTITUDES

https://www.livingintheair.org/2024/09/jacques-ellul-the-formation-of-attitudes.html


2. PROPAGANDA: THE WAY IT WORKS, THE HARM IT DOES
https://www.livingintheair.org/2022/06/propaganda-the-way-it-works-the-harm-it-does-us.html


3. PROPAGANDA FIT FOR THE EDINBURGH FRINGE
https://www.livingintheair.org/2024/09/propaganda-fit-for-the-edinburgh-fringe.html


4. JOURNALISM AS PROPAGANDA
https://www.livingintheair.org/2022/07/journalism-as-propaganda.html


5. THE EFFECT OF TROLLS ON THE OUTCOME OF THE WAR IN UKRAINE
https://www.livingintheair.org/2023/07/the-effect-of-trolls-on-the-outcome-of-the-war-in-ukraine.html


6. WESTERN GOVTS, ANALYSTS AND MEDIA – HOW PROPAGANDA WORKS
https://www.livingintheair.org/2022/08/western-govts-analysts-and-media-how-propaganda-works.html


7. PROPAGANDA PODCAST
https://www.livingintheair.org/2024/12/propaganda-podcast.html


8. THIS IS NOT OUR WAR
https://www.livingintheair.org/2025/05/this-is-not-our-war.html


9. IS AMERICA’S MADNESS REVERSIBLE?
https://www.livingintheair.org/2024/01/is-americas-madness-reversible.html


10. THE WEST HAS BEEN DEFEATED IN UKRAINE, BUT IS IN DENIAL OF THE…
https://www.livingintheair.org/2025/03/the-west-has-been-defeated-in-ukraine-but-is-in-denial.html

IN SUMMARY...

Propaganda today isn’t about telling crude lies. It works by shaping attitudes through repetition, emotion, and “common sense” narratives, aligning media, experts, and elite. 

Its real effect isn’t to make us believe everything, but to narrow what can be questioned... in effect, propaganda replaces real debate with an instinctive purely emotional reflex and turns us into spectators.... it's not enough to think that we are above such manipulation, we aren't, we need to be aware, all we have in self-defense is knowledge of the methods and techniques used and the end purposes and outcomes sought by the manipulators.

Take care!
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Monday, 8 December 2025

GOLD AS A SAFE STORE OUTSIDE A FAILING SYSTEM

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8 December 2025

People buy gold when they don't understand or feel safe with banks or the financial system, especially when they sense that they sense that paper promises may not be honoured.

But not all forms of gold offer the same protection. Some survive crisis. Others depend on the system that you are hedging against.

Get your wealth out of the system before it's too late

1. INTRODUCTION

Gold is the oldest form of financial protection. But not all forms of gold are equally safe. Some survive crisis. Others collapse with the system that issues them.

Here is a clear ranking of the ten main ways to hold gold, from safest to most speculative, based on counterparty risk, liquidity and systemic vulnerability.

Is gold safe? Governments could introduce:

• sales taxes

• capital-gains taxes

• windfall taxes

• transaction reporting

• VAT changes.

• punitive taxes

• reporting requirements

• banning cash purchases

• forced sales only through regulated dealers

• exchange controls

Examples:

• USA 1933 – Executive Order 6102 forced citizens to sell gold to the government.

• Australia 1959 – Gold seizure powers existed but were never used.

• UK 1966 – Restrictions on private ownership of gold coins (lifted later).

Even with taxes or restrictions, gold protects you from:

• inflation

• currency devaluation

• banking failures

• capital controls

• bail-ins

• negative interest rates

• political financial repression

If the government takes 5–10% in tax when you sell, that is still far better than losing 50–90% of purchasing power through currency decline.

Anyway here is the list of securities in risk order:

2. PHYSICAL GOLD IN YOUR POSSESSION

This is the safest form of ownership. No counterparty risk. No broker, no bank, no custodian. It cannot be frozen or seized by a failing financial system.

Physical gold is the foundation of crisis protection.

3. ALLOCATED GOLD IN A TRUSTED NON BANK VAULT

Allocated storage means specific bars held in your name. They are segregated and legally yours. Jurisdictions such as Switzerland and Singapore are preferred.

Almost as safe as holding it yourself, with the benefit of institutional-grade security.

4. UNALLOCATED GOLD ACCOUNTS

Unallocated accounts give you a claim on gold, but not specific bars. In normal markets this is convenient. In stressed markets it becomes risky.

If the issuer fails, you join the queue as a creditor.

5. GOLD ETFS SUCH AS GLD IAU OR PHYS

ETFs track the gold price effectively and are very liquid. They function well when markets are calm.

But they remain inside the financial system. They depend on exchanges, custodians and regulators. They offer price exposure, not systemic protection.

6. SENIOR GOLD MINERS

Large mining companies typically rise faster than the gold price because their margins widen.

They are still businesses with political, operational and regulatory risks. They perform well in stable markets and poorly in systemic crises.

7. GOLD MINER ETFS SUCH AS GDX

These vehicles diversify across many miners. Upside is strong in a bull market.

However they depend entirely on equity market liquidity. In a crisis they can fall sharply despite a rising gold price.

8. JUNIOR GOLD MINERS

Juniors offer large speculative upside in good times. They are highly leveraged to sentiment and financing conditions.

In a liquidity freeze they often collapse. They are not a hedge against systemic risk.

9. JUNIOR MINER ETFS SUCH AS GDXJ

These ETFs spread junior-level risk but retain junior-level volatility. They are the first to be hit in any market shock.

Best suited only for speculation, not protection.

10. FUTURES OPTIONS AND LEVERAGED GOLD PRODUCTS

These include futures, options, CFDs and leveraged ETFs. They are trading tools, not stores of value.

Margin calls, forced liquidations and exchange disruptions make them extremely unsafe in a crisis.

11. GOLD HELD THROUGH WEAK BANKS OR RISKY BROKERS

This is the least safe method. Subject to bail ins, freezes and counterparty failure. It provides the appearance of safety but no real security.

12. CONCLUSION

Gold protects against the failure of paper promises. But the protection depends entirely on how you hold it. Physical possession is the anchor. Allocated vault storage follows closely. Everything else depends on the stability of a financial system that may not endure.

In an age of rising debt, monetary instability and geopolitical fracture, choosing the right form of gold matters more than ever.


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Friday, 5 December 2025

WILL IT BE WAR OR PEACE

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5 December 2025


Rome, Spain, the Dutch and Britain fought to the end for their currency and their supremacy. Talks in Moscow hint at something different: cooperation instead of confrontation. If true, Ukraine may be the last war of the old Order, not the first war of the new.

WHY IS UKRAINE STILL FIGHTING - HASN'T IT LOST THE WAR

Why is Ukraine fighting to the last Ukrainian?
This post explores whether the answer lies not in nationalism alone, but in power: specifically the power that flows from the dollar as reserve currency and the hegemonic status this confers on America.

To have your own currency as global reserve is "the exorbitant privilege", as Valéry Giscard d’Estaing called it back in 1965:

• the world needs your dollars

    > you get lower interest rates

• you can run permanent deficits

    > import more than you export

    > consume more than you produce

    > fund it all simply by issuing IOUs (Treasuries)

• you get geopolitical leverage

    > freeze / confiscate reserves of others

    > cut countries off from finance

    > weaponise clearing systems

• Global profits / savings flow into your assets:

    > spiking demand for your treasuries, bonds, equities and real estate, pusing up asset values

   > keeping U.S. financial markets deeper, more liquid, more stable  

   > ie American assets structurally bid higher

Reality is, the US taxes the world. It swaps paper, digital entries, IOUs - promises that cost it nothing and that it will never repay - for real goods and services. But it is a poisoned chalice and one that America will one day fight and die for, unless, unless it can negotiate a way out

1. STATEMENTS FROM GERMAN LEADERS

Annalena Baerbock, the previous German Foreign Minister, said, “I will put Ukraine first no matter what my German voters think or how hard their life gets”.

The new German Foreign Minister, Johann Wadephul, said, “Next week Russia either bows… or we enter the war directly. And if it turns into a world war then let it be for Ukraine”.

No surprises, nothing new, expect WW3, and remember what the Americans did to the Japanese in the last one.

2. THE IMPERIAL PATTERN

Every empire has fought to preserve its currency as reserve for trade and save, and to defend its hegemony.

Rome, Spain, the Dutch, Britain.
All died fighting.

But there is still time, still hope.

3. A POSSIBLE BREAK IN THE CYCLE

Despite this historical pattern, something different appears to be happening.

There were five-hour meetings between Trump’s envoy Steve Wytkoff and Vladimir Putin himself; held in parallel with Russia's and China’s foreign ministers, Sergey Lavrov and Wang Yi, as far as I can understand at the same time in Moscow.

This suggests that the three major powers are talking about cooperation rather than confrontation, and incidentally sidelining European governments who maintain their hysteria and self-inflicted decline.

4. A SHIFT IN POWER

Can we say that power is moving, but not along the lines of the old imperial playbook?

There are many posts here on this script describing the phases in the life of any Empire. Perhaps this time will be different and the optimist will be right for a change.

5. A COORDINATED SETTLEMENT


If Washington, Moscow and Beijing are ready to discuss a coordinated security treaty (think Helsinki 1975 that Glenn Diesen who often discusses this) and on economic issues (think Keynes’ bancor), then the old EndOfEmpire phase may be re-written.

Instead of a catastrophic currency-defence war, we could see a negotiated transition to a new global Order.

Europe risks being sidelined by its own dysfunction unless there are honest re-elections this year.

6. A RARE POSSIBILITY

History does not often give empires a peaceful exit.

Western propaganda says Britain handed over peacefully to America, but that is almost completely untrue.

How the US bankrupted Britain

Still, could this moment contain the ever-so-faint possibility of exactly that?

7. WHY UKRAINE FIGHTS TO THE LAST

As to why the Ukrainians will hang on to the end in the face of doom, gloom and total destruction, I am not sure the answers given in the alternative media are enough.

I think the fundamental issue is power, and the power that flows from the dollar as reserve currency, and the hegemonic status this confers on America. And the Western elite triad has through blackmail and bribery - call it soft power if you prefer - bought in the authorities everywhere it sets foot.


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Thursday, 4 December 2025

THEY'RE SNUFFING OUT FREEDOM TO CONTROL REVOLT

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4 December 2025

1. INTRODUCTION

• Surveillance is always presented as harmless: “only criminals object”.
• But that mindset already flips the relationship between citizen and state.
• When people must explain why they don’t want to be monitored, freedom has started to erode.

•  The onus is on the individual to justify what they are doing in a surveillance state but remember we are born free and the state should not interfere with our natural freedoms... only fascist states do this.

2. THE EROSION OF FREEDOM

• Most people do not notice how far things have move
• In the UK, layer after layer of monitoring has become normal, both by the state and by corporations and banks etc
• It feels heavy, restrictive, time consuming and increasingly intrusive ... and once these systems exist, they rarely disappear
• By contrast, life elsewhere outside States run by neurotic governments and paranoid people can still feel open, relaxed, friendly and genuinely free.

3. WHY GOVERNMENTS TURN TO SURVEILLANCE

• Authorities fear public objection and revolt when their policies stop serving ordinary people.
• This is the irony: a Labour government elected by working voters now builds tools to watch and limit those very voters.
• When trust weakens, governments do not retreat, they up the anti the escalate the tighten further the controls.

4. REAL-TIME FACIAL RECOGNITION — THE NEW POWER

• Live face-matching allows instant intervention whenever someone behaves in a way the authorities disapprove of.
• Behaviour doesn't have to be illegal, simply behaviour judged undesirable buy someone with power over you power to limit your choices, your decisions, your freedom.... to satisfy their own ends, not yours
• This gives the state the ability to police your:

– attitude
– expression
– movemen

– dissent

Such power has no place in a free society.

5. THE PSYCHOLOGICAL DAMAGE

• The real harm happens inside people’s heads.
• When you know you are being watched, you censor yourself.
• People become:
– anxious
– cautious
– predictable
• Creativity collapses because people avoid risk.
• Innovation weakens because imagination needs freedom, surveillance is a turn off a no-no.

6. THE END STATE

• A watched population becomes manageable but dull and lifeless.... robotic in the sense of programmed
• People move and speak like they are walking on eggshells.
• The result is a nation of cardboard cut-outs ... obedient, frightened, and easily directed.
• This is not safety. It is control dressed up as protection. What has the state really got to fear from its people other than dissent, revolt, replacement.

7. CONCLUSION

The authorities can see the economy, society and politics - "events" - spiraling out of their control and the surveillance state will, they think, extend the duration of their power over the citizenry. In this way they can continue ruling in their own interests and avoid proceedings against them for corrupt behaviour.

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Wednesday, 3 December 2025

LEARN THAI - THE FIRST THREE MONTHS

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3 December 2025

Prepared with AI assistance 

1. OVERALL STRATEGY

  • You are building a combined system:

    • App learning for vocabulary, tones and repetition.
    • Real-life immersion in Chiang Mai.
    • A structured course at We Learn Thai (Pantip Plaza).
    • A one-year Education Visa (ED visa) to legalise the whole thing.

  • This mix is sustainable.

    • Apps build foundations.
    • Teachers correct pronunciation and structure.
    • Immersion turns theory into habit.
    • The ED visa gives legality and routine.

  • ED visa = non-immigrant study visa that allows you to stay in Thailand for up to twelve months while enrolled at an approved school.

2. APP LEARNING – DAILY ROUTINE

  • Core apps:

    • Ling – structured Thai course with tones, writing and dialogues.
    • Mondly – simple conversational practice and phrases.
    • Anki or other flashcards – efficient memorising of vocabulary - no, steep setup and learning the software...other flashcards

  • Suggested three-day cycle (10–20 minutes per day):

    • Day 1 – Ling lesson plus pronunciation practice.
    • Day 2 – Mondly dialogues and tone repetition.
    • Day 3 – Anki review plus handwriting practice.
    • Then repeat the cycle.

  • Tone practice is essential.

    • Even small tone errors change meaning.
    • Short, frequent sessions beat long, occasional ones.

  • Spaced repetition = a method that shows you words just before you would forget them, to fix them in long-term memory.

3. IMMERSIVE LEARNING – REAL LIFE IN CHIANG MAI

  • Use Thai deliberately in daily life:

    • Order food and coffee in Thai.
    • Greet security, neighbours and vendors in Thai.
    • Ask simple questions in shops.
      • Example: “มีแบบอื่นไหมครับ” – do you have another style?
    • Watch short Thai clips on YouTube or TikTok.
    • Read menus and street signs out loud.

  • Practical tips:

    • Speak slowly and clearly.
    • Exaggerate rising and falling tones at first.
    • Accept that mistakes are normal; locals usually appreciate the effort.

  • Immersion = learning through repeated real-world contact, not only from textbooks or apps.

4. MONTHLY CSV VOCABULARY PACKS (APRIL–JUNE 2026)

  • You now have three CSV files, one per month:

    • April – essential daily Thai.
    • May – reading, structure and everyday problem-solving.
    • June – conversation, social life and rentals.

  • Each CSV includes:

    • Month and category.
    • Thai script.
    • Transliteration.
    • English meaning.
    • A Google Translate audio link for pronunciation.

  • How to use them:

    • Import into Excel or Google Sheets.
    • Sort or filter by month or category.
    • Click the audio link to hear the word in Thai.
    • Optionally import into Anki later, if you decide to use it again.

  • These CSV packs match the three-month plan below.

    • April file aligns with Month 1 foundations.
    • May file aligns with Month 2 structure and reading.
    • June file aligns with Month 3 conversation and rentals vocabulary.

  • CSV = comma-separated values; a simple text format that works with almost all spreadsheet and flashcard tools.

5. WE LEARN THAI – PANTIP PLAZA (STRUCTURED COURSE)

  • Established Thai language school in Chiang Mai.

  • Known for:

    • Thai courses for foreigners.
    • ED visa sponsorship.

  • What you can expect:

    • Group or private lessons.
    • Around 8–10 hours of class per week.
    • Strong focus on practical conversation, tones and sentence patterns.
    • Homework and vocabulary lists that you can sync with your CSV decks.
    • Teachers correcting pronunciation, rhythm and common mistakes.

  • Balanced view:

    • The school provides structure and accountability.
    • Real progress still depends on what you do between classes.

6. ONE-YEAR EDUCATION VISA (ED VISA)

  • We Learn Thai can sponsor your Non-Immigrant ED visa.

  • Simplified process:

    1. Register with the school.
    2. Provide passport, photos and any required forms.
    3. The school prepares documents for immigration or consulate.
    4. You apply for the ED visa:
      • Either convert within Thailand, or
      • Apply at a Thai consulate abroad.
    5. You receive an initial 90-day permission to stay.
    6. You extend every 90 days at Chiang Mai Immigration (Promenada).
    7. You keep attending classes throughout the year.

  • Requirements:

    • Regular attendance; schools must report absences.
    • Valid passport and up-to-date 90-day reporting.

  • Visa extension = renewal of permission to stay, usually every 90 days, up to the full one-year study period.

7. THREE-MONTH PROGRAMME (APRIL–JUNE 2026) – OVERVIEW

  • Purpose over 90 days:

    • Build a functional, conversational base in Thai.
    • Combine apps, immersion, We Learn Thai classes and your CSV vocab packs.

  • By end of June 2026 you aim to:

    • Manage everyday interactions confidently.
    • Understand tone rules and read basic signs.
    • Use 300–400 words actively, not just recognise them.
    • Be ready for intermediate study from July onwards.

  • Functional Thai = a level where shopping, transport and small talk become easier, smoother and less tiring.

8. MONTH 1 – APRIL: FOUNDATIONS

8.1 Vocabulary targets (linked to April CSV)

  • Greetings, politeness and pronouns.
  • Numbers, prices and time expressions.
  • Food, transport and basic directions.
  • Core verbs: want, go, come, buy, like, can.

8.2 Tone mastery

  • Work on high, mid and low tones.
  • Practise rising and falling tones daily.
  • Use Ling plus teacher drills for at least five minutes each day.

8.3 Grammar patterns

  • Subject plus verb plus object.
  • “Want to + verb” structures.
  • Questions using ไหม (mai) for yes/no.
  • Basic classifiers: glasses, bottles, people, animals.

8.4 Immersion tasks

  • Order coffee or food in Thai every day.

  • Greet neighbours and security in Thai.

  • Read ten signs per day around your condo.

  • Ask prices and simple questions in markets.

  • Balanced view:

    • In April, confidence and habit matter more than perfect accuracy.

9. MONTH 2 – MAY: STRUCTURE AND READING

9.1 Vocabulary targets (linked to May CSV)

  • Health, appointments and banking language.

  • Directions and more complex instructions.

  • Weather, household items and locations.

  • New verbs: bring, take, need, must.

  • Vocabulary block = a cluster of related words learnt together for faster recall.

9.2 Reading introduction

  • Thai consonants, grouped by mid, high and low classes.
  • Core vowels and tone marks.
  • Tone rules as they appear in written Thai.
  • Reading simple menus and signs (ตลาด, ร้านกาแฟ, เปิด, ปิด, etc.).

9.3 Grammar patterns

  • “Have / not have”.
  • “Before / after / while”.
  • Comparisons: more, less, same.
  • Polite softeners: หน่อย, ด้วย, หน่อยนะ.

9.4 Immersion tasks

  • Ask open questions (why, how, which).

  • Try one short Thai-only conversation per day.

  • Watch 5–10 minutes of Thai news or social media daily.

  • Use Thai in Grab rides and in Rimping or local markets.

  • Balanced view:

    • Reading feels hard at the beginning.
    • Knowing even ten to twenty letters massively boosts listening and guessing what’s going on.

10. MONTH 3 – JUNE: CONVERSATION AND CONFIDENCE

10.1 Vocabulary targets (linked to June CSV)

  • Work, travel plans and hobbies.
  • Feelings and opinions.
  • Everyday problems: water, electricity, internet, repairs.

10.2 Conversation skills

  • Build longer sentences from known pieces.
  • Summarise your day in Thai.
  • Talk about plans using “will”, “want” and “going to”.
  • Express likes, dislikes and preferences.

10.3 Reading skills

  • Short menus.
  • Condominium notices.
  • Street signs and business names.
  • Simple messages in chat apps.

10.4 Immersion tasks

  • Have a weekly Thai-only block of two to four hours.

  • Write three or four simple Thai messages to friends or vendors.

  • Visit at least two places where almost no English is spoken.

  • Balanced view:

    • By June you are not “fluent”.
    • But you can hold real conversations that actually work in daily life.

11. WEEKLY CLASS PLAN – WE LEARN THAI

  • Each week you aim for:

    • Two to three classes (group or private).
    • Regular tone drilling.
    • Conversation practice on real themes: rentals, cafés, markets, travel.
    • Vocabulary reinforcement, aligned with that month’s CSV file.
    • Reading support as you start Thai script.

  • Teacher focus:

    • Correct tones and mouth shape.
    • Build consistency and confidence.
    • Choose vocabulary that fits your real lifestyle.
    • Track attendance for ED visa compliance.

12. DAILY APP ROUTINE – SUPPORTING THE PLAN

  • Ling (10–15 minutes per day):

    • Structured lessons.
    • Tone audio and dialogues.

  • Anki or other flashcards (5–10 minutes per day):

    • Use the April, May and June CSV lists.
    • Review 20–40 cards per day.
    • Focus on Thai script plus sound, not only transliteration.

  • Mondly (optional):

    • Use for quick practice when out and about.

  • Balanced view:

    • Apps do the repetition work.
    • Teachers and real people correct technique and usage.

13. ADMIN PREP FOR ED VISA (MAY–JUNE)

  • Documents you will typically need:

    • Passport copy.
    • Passport photos.
    • Completed school and visa forms.
    • Acceptance letter from We Learn Thai.
    • Proof of course fee payment.

  • Process:

    1. Register at We Learn Thai in May.
    2. Let the school prepare visa documents.
    3. Apply for ED visa in-country or at a consulate.
    4. Receive an initial 90-day stay.
    5. Extend every 90 days at Chiang Mai Immigration for up to a year.

  • Schools usually advise starting paperwork four to six weeks before your desired visa start date.

14. SUMMARY AND NEXT STEPS

  • Use April, May and June CSV vocab files as the backbone of your study.
  • Run the daily app routine for short, consistent practice.
  • Use classes at We Learn Thai to correct your speech and keep you accountable.
  • Immerse yourself in Thai each day through food, markets, chats and signs.
  • Line up your ED visa application so that your study rhythm and your legal status support each other.
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Monday, 1 December 2025

NOTHING CAN BE DONE ABOUT IMMIGRATION AND HERE'S WHY

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NOTHING CAN BE DONE ABOUT IMMIGRATION AND HERE'S WHY
When states can no longer manage migration, equality, or the expectations of their own citizens.

In this article, we shall look at point 4 on  migration.

Uncontrolled immigration is not the cause of imperial decline but the symptom of a deeper sovereign exhaustion – when a state can no longer sustain its own population, enforce its own rules or align its elites with the national interest, the borders fail and the empire begins to unravel.
 
1. INTRODUCTION
 
When empires reach their late stage, the metropole still shines with wealth, but only because it has drained the periphery. And so people will move towards the light... just as that light is  beginning to fade. 
 
But uncontrolled immigration is not an isolated policy failure. It is a classic sign of late-stage empire: a state that can no longer police its frontiers, define its identity or align its elites with its population. From Rome to the Ottomans, from Britain to the US and EU today, border failure emerges precisely when institutions weaken and social cohesion fractures. It marks the passage from decline to breakdown, the final indicator that an empire has lost control of itself. 


This post is one of a series in EndOfEmpire Collapse - contrarian, evidence-based, sceptical of official narratives.

Key terms:
metropole = the imperial centre.
periphery = the regions supplying labour, resources, or taxes.
demographic fracture = a breakdown in population balance, identity and cohesion.

2. THE CORE ARGUMENT

Uncontrolled immigration is not a policy mistake. It is a universal symptom of late-stage empire decline, a sign that the centre has lost control of its borders, its identity, and the trust of its own citizens.

Across Rome, Byzantium, Habsburg Spain, the Ottomans, Britain and today’s West, border failure appears exactly when institutions are exhausted and social cohesion cracks.
It marks the passage from decline to breakdown.

3. DEMOGRAPHIC FRACTURE: THE FINAL INTERNAL UNRAVELLING

3.1 Population Out of Balance

  • Ageing societies.

  • Falling birth rates.

  • Labour shortages.

  • Rising dependency ratios.
    These create pressure for low-cost migrant labour before the state is ready to absorb it.

3.2 Social Dislocation

  • Too few workers supporting too many dependants.

  • Inequality deepens.

  • Elites retreat into wealth bubbles and delusional imaginings
    King-Canutian thinking without the humility. 

  • Ordinary citizens feel abandoned or deceived.

3.3 Institutional Retrenchment
When the state loses border control, it turns inward:

  • policing speech,

  • controlling narratives,

  • projecting ideology instead of capacity.

This is not a snap collapse, it is the slow unravelling of any shared purpose.


4. THE EMPIRE CYCLE

Every empire since the Romans and probably before have followed the same macro-sequence:

dominance → overextension → deficit spending → currency debasement → inflation → loss of confidence → collapse

No empire escapes the brutal maths:

  • You cannot spend more than you earn.

  • You cannot print prosperity.

  • You cannot debase your currency without debasing your power.

Immigration breakdown is one dimension of this same decline process, alongside debt overload, money-printing, and the flight to hard assets.

"Debase" is to dilute or lower the quality of the currency by cutting the gold or silver content with base metals.

5. WHY LATE-STAGE EMPIRES EXPERIENCE UNCONTROLLED IMMIGRATION

5.1 The Gravitational Pull of the Metropole
Even in decline, the imperial centre remains richer, safer and more functional than its surrounding regions.
People from the periphery - impoverished by war, extraction, and collapsing trade - move towards the metropole’s remaining prosperity.

5.2 Extraction and Return Migration
Empires strip the periphery of value: minerals, labour, energy, crops, taxes, artworks, profits.
Over time this hollows out vassal economies, causing outward flows of people seeking opportunity, welfare or protection (from warlords, authority has already collapsed) at the centre.

The metropole drains the periphery economically, then goes on to absorb its people demographically.

5.3 The Labour Needs of a Declining Core
Decline creates:

  • shortages of domestic workers at affordable wages,

  • stagnant productivity as debt, interest and financials overtake production,

  • rising fiscal costs.
    Cheap migrant labour becomes a political necessity to sustain consumption and inflate GDP figures (even as GDP per capita stagnates).

5.4 Diverging Interests

  • Elites benefit: cheaper labour, ideological signalling, political blocs.

  • Ordinary citizens bear the costs: lower wages (inflation & purchasing power), weaker services, cultural disruption and conflicts.

When the centre can no longer align its elites with its population, when it doesn't know who it is or who it represents, border control collapses by default... there is nothing you can do about this and there is no reason to "get emotional" about it, it is just a fact of life.

5.5 Nothing Stops Immigration Except Imperial Collapse
This is the harsh historical reality:
Immigration stops only when the metropole itself becomes poor, unstable or unattractive enough for migrants to leave. Migrants were never much interested in the metropole, the indigenous core people (eg The Etruscians of Rome) has probably already fled, the migrants just move on and won't be missed.

6. THE HISTORICAL PATTERN

6.1 Rome (3rd–5th centuries)
Migrating populations crossed the Rhine and Danube as Rome lost cohesion.

6.2 Byzantium (11th–15th centuries)
Turkish tribal migration into Anatolia overwhelmed weakened institutions.

6.3 Habsburg Spain (17th century)
Demographic decline + foreign labour reshaped social structure.

6.4 Ottoman Empire (19th century)
Continuous Balkan/Caucasus inflows during administrative exhaustion.

6.5 British Empire (1945–1970)
Post-war economic decline, Suez + rapid immigration → deep political fracture.

6.6 United States & Western Europe (2000s–present)
Sub-Saharan > Mediterranean > European (Italy, Greece...) flows, US southern border crisis, and EU overload - all these challenges, coming at a time of institutional paralysis (eg Chancellor Mertz of Germany complaining that Hungary's Orban has "no EU mandate to talk to Putin".

The rule:
When an empire loses control at the centre, it loses control at the edges.

7. STRUCTURAL REASONS (WHY IT ALWAYS HAPPENS)

7.1 Administrative Exhaustion
Border systems fail when institutions lose discipline and capacity.

7.2 Economic Distortion
Elites need cheap labour; declining productivity and labour-force encourage open-door incentives.

7.3 Moral Disarmament
Declining societies lose confidence in their identity and are unable to define membership (who belongs and who doesn't).

7.4 Elite-Mass Divergence
Winners: the elite and corporate sectors.
Losers: native workers, public services, social cohesion.

7.5 Global Turbulence
Wars, climate stress, and collapsing regions send waves of migration towards wealthy, declining empires.

8. CONSEQUENCES FOR WELFARE, WAGES, INFLATION AND GROWTH

8.1 Welfare Strain

  • UK: 8 million “economically inactive” adults (16–64).

  • One-third entirely off-grid altogether.

  • Two-thirds on benefits.

  • Health-related claimants up from 2.5m (2019) to 3.5m (2024).

  • Fiscal cost: £35 - 40bn per year, rising 10% annually (DWP 2024).

8.2 Wage Pressures
A reduced domestic workforce pushes wages up, but not productivity, thus fuelling inflation and a wage-spiral.

8.3 Service Overload
Healthcare, housing and education systems absorb the pressures of population growth without there being any or little matching infrastructure expansion.

8.4 Drag on Growth
Debt and printing expands to fill the holes in the unproductive side of the economy. Labour shortages + welfare and interest costs + low investment and productivity, act as a brake on expansion.

This is the three-sided trap of late empires:
high welfare, low capacity, rising immigration.

9. SUMMARY

Uncontrolled immigration is not the cause of imperial decline - it is the symptom of a deeper sovereign malaise: demographic aging, social fracture, administrative exhaustion and loss of national confidence. From Rome to Britain to the contemporary West, border failure begins when the state can no longer sustain its own population, enforce its own rules or align its elites with the public ("national") interest. As the metropole hollows out economically and morally, it pulls in labour from the periphery, even as it loses cohesion at home. Nothing stops the flow except the eventual collapse of the imperial system itself.

10. REFERENCES & LINKS


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Sunday, 30 November 2025

8. EL NIDO TO CORON

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30 November 2025



EL NIDO TO CORON
 

1. Landscapes And Beaches

The stretch from El Nido to Coron is one of the world’s finest island routes.
Travellers encounter white-sand coves, towering limestone cliffs, tidal sandbars, and tranquil lagoons reached only by boat.
Some beaches offer simple snorkelling; others are perfect for swimming or sunbathing with nobody else around.

  • White-sand coves
  • Limestone karst cliffs
  • Shallow sandbars
  • Hidden lagoons
  • Coral beaches

Glossary: lagoon – enclosed saltwater pool; karst – limestone landscape shaped by erosion.

2. Snorkel And Wildlife Sites

The route crosses protected marine zones with exceptional visibility.
Schools of fish, sea turtles, and giant clams are common.
Some areas have steep reef walls; others are perfect for beginners.

  • Coral gardens
  • Sea-turtle feeding bays
  • Giant clam sanctuaries
  • Reef-drop walls
  • Shallow fish swarms

Glossary: reef wall – steep seabed drop; sanctuary – protected environmental zone.

3. Shipwrecks And Wartime History

Northern Palawan holds several Japanese supply ships sunk in 1944.
Many lie in clear, shallow water, ideal for snorkelling.
They offer a haunting glimpse into the Pacific War beneath the waves.

  • Shallow WWII wrecks
  • Deeper snorkel sites
  • Visible hulls and cargo areas

Glossary: wreck – sunken ship; freedive – deep dive without an oxygen tank.

4. Adventure Activities

Those seeking movement and adrenaline will not be disappointed.
The islands contain safe cliff-jumping spots (care tongue and willy), caves, and swim-through tunnels illuminated by blue light.
Kayaks and paddle boards provide slow, peaceful exploration.

  • Cliff-jumping
  • Caves and swim-through tunnels
  • Lagoon kayaking
  • Paddle-boarding
  • Mountain viewpoints

5. Rest And Relaxation

Most expeditions include slow days, quiet bays, and long beach lunches.
Fresh seafood, rice, and fruit are cooked on the sand.
Calm coves allow floating in warm water with nothing but limestone walls around.

  • Picnic beaches
  • Hammock islands
  • Calm bays
  • Sunset shores

6. Cultural Encounters

Island-hopping passes working coastal communities.
Travellers see fish-drying racks, outrigger boats, and villages living from the sea.
Local cooking and boat traditions give the journey its human texture.

  • Fishing communities
  • Seasonal drying stations
  • Beach BBQs
  • Outrigger boats (bangka)

Glossary: bangka – traditional Filipino outrigger boat.

7. Safety And Practical Notes

The sea is usually calm in the morning, windy in the afternoon.
Expect two or three stops per day, with a mixture of snorkelling, beaches, and island lunches.
Bring reef-safe sunscreen, a rash guard, and a dry bag.
Stay hydrated; tropical heat intensifies quickly.

8. Guest Welcome Guide – El Nido to Coron Expedition

This section provides a simple, friendly guide for guests joining the island-hopping journey from El Nido to Coron. It explains what to expect each day, how to stay safe, and how to enjoy the trip comfortably.

8.1 Daily Rhythm

  • Two to three island or lagoon stops each day.
  • Mix of beaches, snorkelling sites, coral areas, and calm lagoons.
  • Lunch cooked fresh by the crew, usually on a beach unless weather changes plans.
  • Arrive in Coron on the final afternoon, depending on sea conditions.

8.2 Safety and Comfort

  • Life jackets available for all guests.
  • Crew will advise when jackets are required, especially in deeper water or mild currents.
  • Follow briefings at each stop – the crew will explain conditions clearly.
  • Please tell the crew immediately if you feel tired, cold, seasick, or uncomfortable.

8.3 Snorkelling Guide

  • Crew checks conditions before anyone enters the water.
  • A safety kayak or tender stays nearby while you snorkel.
  • Do not touch coral or marine life.
  • Fins are offered at sites with stronger currents.
  • Stay within sight of the boat at all times.

8.4 Meals and Water

  • Breakfast served before departure.
  • Lunch prepared fresh daily; usually grilled seafood, vegetables, rice, fruit.
  • Drinking water is always available.
  • Please let the crew know any dietary requirements on the first morning.

8.5 Weather and Routing

  • Weather can change suddenly in the Palawan region.
  • The captain may adjust the route for safety or comfort.
  • Changes are normal and part of island travel.
  • Crew will always explain the plan kindly and clearly.

8.6 Environmental Care

  • No littering at sea or on beaches.
  • Use reef-safe sunscreen to protect the coral.
  • Do not stand on coral or touch the seabed in shallow areas.
  • Respect marine sanctuary rules at all times.

8.7 Practical Tips

  • Bring a dry bag for phones and valuables.
  • A long-sleeve rash guard helps against sun and jellyfish.
  • Sunglasses, hat, and light clothing for the boat.
  • Sandals for beach landings; trainers not needed.
  • Ask crew for help with photos — they are used to taking guest pictures safely.

8.8 What a Typical Day Looks Like

  1. Depart after breakfast.
  2. First snorkel or lagoon stop.
  3. Second stop and beachside lunch.
  4. Final afternoon swim or snorkel.
  5. Cruise to anchorage or overnight stop.

Each day offers new islands, new beaches, and new swimming spots.

8.9 Emergency Awareness

  • The crew is trained and experienced.
  • First-aid kit is on board.
  • Radio or phone contact with coastal authorities always maintained.
  • In an unlikely emergency, follow crew instructions calmly.

Summary Line

This is a slow, beautiful journey across the Palawan islands – a mixture of calm beaches, clear water, fresh food, and gentle adventure. Relax, enjoy the scenery, and let the crew take care of the details.

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