WE ARE DOOMED (WW3)

5 June 2025

The CIA organise the bombing of a strategically, important russian airports. They are focused on breaking up Russia and collateral consequences are out of their scope....that's what POTUS does - but if he won't attend the daily briefings, what is he to know about what's going on? However you look at this, Donald Trump is responsible (and responsible for escalation) and where is Tulsi Gabbard - she is Director of National Intelligence (DNI)? Her responsibilities:

- Oversight of Intelligence Agencies: Gabbard oversees all 18 U.S. intelligence agencies, including the CIA, NSA, and FBI, coordinating their activities to ensure national security

- Principal Intelligence Advisor: She serves as the primary intelligence advisor to the President, the National Security Council, and the Homeland Security Council, providing assessments on global threats and intelligence matters 

- Reforming Intelligence Practices: Gabbard has emphasised the need to depoliticise the intelligence community, aiming to restore public trust and ensure that intelligence operations are conducted without bias...ha ha!

- But the DNI is part of the executive branch, so this is internal oversight, not fully independent.

The whole thing is out of control, and this is what is so frightening. The UN can do its worst, but will just get swatted away. 

There will be a reality check at some point (defeat for the Western powers seems the likely eventual outcome, but why did it do they so confidently persist?). 

It is likely that there will be a military alliance with China, things could reach the top rung if not, 

but it would be so much better if the people could step in first.

For a taste of what's to come, see the Rand Corporation's strategic thinking from 2019, RR_3063, available on the internet. Noone's going to read 200 pages. But there is a chapter specifically on a dozen or so measures to what they call "extend" Russia.

Here is what the people rely on for insuring peace and safety in foreign policy:

1. Congressional Oversight

a. Senate Select Committee on Intelligence (SSCI)

b. House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence (HPSCI)

These bipartisan bodies are legally empowered to review budgets, operations, and abuses.

They receive classified briefings, hold hearings, and issue reports.

However, they often face delays or restrictions on access and may lack technical expertise.

2. The Executive Branch Inspectors General

Each agency has an Inspector General (IG) – a watchdog office that can audit and investigate misconduct.

The Intelligence Community Inspector General (ICIG) handles issues across agencies.

IGs are supposed to be independent, but they report to agency heads, and have been fired or sidelined in controversial cases.

3. The President and National Security Council (NSC)

The President sets intelligence priorities and can restrain or unleash the agencies.

The NSC (chaired by the President) integrates intelligence into policy decisions.

In practice, the President may use or abuse this power to shield allies or target opponents.

4. The Courts: Limited Role

The Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Court (FISC) approves surveillance requests on U.S. citizens.

It operates in secret, and critics argue it is too compliant (approving over 99% of government requests).

The Supreme Court and federal judiciary can step in when intelligence operations violate laws, but this is rare and reactive.

5. The Press and Whistleblowers

Investigative journalism (e.g. Snowden leaks, CIA torture) plays a crucial external accountability role.

Whistleblowers within the agencies can report abuse, but face legal and professional risks, especially under the Espionage Act.

6. Civil Society and Academia

NGOs (e.g. ACLU, EFF) and university research analyse surveillance trends and push for reform.

They can lobby Congress, sue the government, and raise public awareness, but have no formal authority.

*Conclusion*

The U.S. intelligence community is checked by a patchwork of oversight mechanisms, none of which is fully independent or consistently effective. Power is concentrated in the executive, and accountability often depends on internal discipline, whistleblowers, and public pressure. As DNI, Tulsi Gabbard sits atop this system, but she’s also part of it.

I'm not sure what ended the Vietnam war. I think it was just defeat, although there were lots of public protests. I don't think these had any effect.

We are doomed.

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HOW THE PEOPLE WILL END THIS WAR

4 June 2025

1. The Approaching Tipping Point in the Ukraine War

A long war eventually burns out its own logic. Whether it's donors withholding funds, voters swinging toward peace candidates, a final catastrophic defeat on the battlefield, or a bankrupt Treasury unable to finance further arms production - there are many pathways that could lead this war to a conclusion.

But how will we know when the tipping point has truly been reached?

2. Signs of the Dialectic Shifting

First, cracks will begin to appear in the mainstream media narrative. Once loyal stenographers to the official war line, journalists will start revealing the bleak reality of the front lines. Articles will mention stalled offensives, morale problems, or whispers of fatigue.

Next, a few brave public figures - politicians, cultural icons, perhaps a military voice - will speak out. Not in favour of defeat, but in defence of truth, morality, and common sense.

The language will subtly change. No longer just “Russian aggression,” but phrases like “security concerns,” “strategic balance,” or even “pathways to dialogue” will enter the mainstream.

Then will come the economic reckoning. Editorials will question the ballooning cost of war - paid by taxpayers enduring service cuts at home. What started as noble resistance may begin to look like unsustainable waste.

Public mood will shift. Social media will amplify the outrage. Protesters will reappear - on high streets, on university campuses, on the steps of parliament.

3. Sensible Adjustments, Not Apologies

When this happens, there will be no formal apology. Instead, we’ll hear of “sensible adjustments to policy,” “reassessments,” or “fresh thinking on strategic objectives.” The dialectic - thesis, antithesis, synthesis - will do its quiet work. What was unthinkable will become inevitable.

And what then of those who staked so much on pride, certainty, and a single narrative? How will they cope when history begins to speak in a different voice?

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NEW OPPORTUNITIES FOR SOFTWARE DEVELOPERS

4 June 2025

AI Software Developer with four arms

1. The Changing Role of Software Developers

Less Coding, More Orchestration

Developers are moving from writing code line-by-line to orchestrating AI systems that write, test, and refactor code. The new skill is not typing syntax, but designing systems, crafting smart prompts, and integrating tools like Copilot or Claude Code effectively.

Shift to AI Pair-Programming

Tools like Cursor, GitHub Copilot, and Claude are now “AI teammates.” Developers must learn to collaborate with models, not compete with them. This involves prompt discipline, architectural overview, and validation of AI output — a mix of engineering and critical thinking.

From Builders to Product Thinkers

The edge lies in understanding the problem, not just the solution. Developers are expected to think like product managers, bridging user needs and technical feasibility. Code is no longer king — clarity, coordination, and creativity are.

2. Why Junior Developers Are Most at Risk

Routine Coding Is Automated

AI handles CRUD apps, simple components, and boilerplate with ease — areas where juniors typically cut their teeth.

Training Time Is a Cost

With shrinking teams, firms want contributors from day one. Few can afford long onboarding cycles for juniors anymore.

The Rise of Low-Code/No-Code

Many startups now bypass full-stack teams using tools like Bubble or Retool. This squeezes out entry-level backend or frontend roles.

3. New Opportunities for Displaced Developers

Here are six smart pivots for those under threat:

a. Prompt Engineer / AI Orchestrator

Focus on writing high-precision prompts, evaluating LLM output, and integrating RAG or LangChain pipelines. Many companies need developers who can wrangle AI tools effectively.

b. Developer-Designer Hybrid

UX/UI plus code is a potent combo. Tools like Figma-to-Code and AI design assistants still require a human with taste. Learn product thinking.

c. DevRel & Technical Writing

Explain complex tools to others. If you can teach coding, write tutorials, make docs, or host workshops, you're valuable to DevTools and SaaS companies.

d. Custom AI Solutions for SMEs

Offer AI agents, chatbots, or automation for law firms, accountants, architects, and NGOs. Use off-the-shelf APIs to deliver real value with minimal code.

e. AI Test Automation

Quality assurance is being revolutionised. Learn to use tools like Testim, Playwright with AI, or write robust GPT-driven test plans. This is a niche with rising demand.

f. Build & Monetise Side Projects

With AI co-piloting, a solo dev can now ship full-stack SaaS in days. Learn lean startup methodology and test ideas cheaply. Many developers are doing this already.

4. Strategic Advice

Stay Human-Centric

Lean into what AI can’t do well — empathy, judgment, originality. Use AI to speed up mundane tasks, but don’t become a typist for the machine.

Invest in Your Workflow Stack

Master AI tools: Claude, Copilot, Cursor, GPTs, ChromaDB, Supabase. Understand where they shine and where they break.

Think Like an Architect, Not a Bricklayer

As in construction, the value now lies in systems design, interoperability, and scalability - not just laying the digital bricks.

5. Final Thought

> The developer of the future won’t be the fastest coder - they’ll be the clearest thinker, the best collaborator, and the most creative integrator of AI tools.

If you're junior, don’t just “learn more code.” Learn how code fits into systems, businesses, and people’s lives. That's where the jobs will survive.

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AI VIBE CODING STARTUPS

4 June 2025

Vibe Coding Startups Take Off

A wave of AI startups is emerging that turn plain English into executable code. This is known as "vibe coding".

These tools lower the technical barrier for software creation and promise faster, cheaper development.

Major venture capital is flooding in, fuelling sky-high valuations. Vibe coding startups popping up everywhere, founders can now write really buggy code just about good enough to run during a pitch to get funding.

2. Key Players and Valuations

Cursor: AI code startup reportedly valued at $10 billion, with $100M in annualised revenue.

Windsurf (formerly Codeium): In acquisition talks with OpenAI at a $3 billion valuation. Windsurf is now both a code editor with AI assistance (like cursor) and an extension in Vs code.

Cognition: Another major player in the AI coding tools space.

These companies largely run on third-party models like OpenAI’s GPT or Anthropic’s Claude.

3. AI in Coding: Disruption and Opportunity

Tools like GitHub Copilot (Microsoft/OpenAI) now generate over $500M/year.

AI assistants reduce the need for large teams, especially junior developers.

Could lead to shrinking demand for traditional programming roles.

4. Strategic Dilemma: Rent vs Build

Startups must decide whether to keep renting AI models (e.g. via OpenAI API) or build their own.

Building offers better margins and control but demands huge resources.

Proprietary model development is a growing trend among well-funded players.

5. Challenges and Future Outlook

The market is increasingly competitive with both Big Tech and startups offering similar services.

Success depends on deep workflow integration, trust from developers, and technical reliability.

The current hype risks outpacing delivery ie only the most agile firms will survive.

6. Glossary of Key Terms

Vibe Coding: Using AI to write code from plain language prompts.

LLM (Large Language Model): AI model trained on vast data to understand/generate text.

Cursor: Startup building an AI software developer assistant.

Windsurf: AI code tool, rival to Copilot.

Inference: The process of an AI generating responses from its model.

Proprietary Models: In-house AI models giving more control and better cost margins.

GitHub Copilot: Microsoft’s market-leading AI assistant for coders.

Gross Margin: Profit measure after subtracting costs to deliver AI service.

7. Source

Reuters, 3 June 2025: AI ‘vibe coding’ startups burst onto scene with sky-high valuations

Reporter: Anna Tong

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RAY DALIO'S NEW BOOK, HOW COUNTRIES GO BROKE

4 June 2025

Ray Dalio’s How Countries Go Broke: The Big Cycle is a stark warning from one of the world’s leading investors. Drawing on centuries of economic history, Dalio shows how nations rise through productivity and fall through debt, denial, and decay. His message is clear: when governments prioritise short-term politics over long-term stability, economic collapse is not a question of if—but when.

How Countries Go Broke: The Big Cycle

1. The Big Debt Cycle Explained

• Early Stage:
• Mid Stage:
• Late Stage:
• Crisis Stage:

2. Indicators of Economic Vulnerability

• High Debt-to-Income Ratios:
• Rising Interest Payments:
• Dependence on Foreign Investors:
• Currency Depreciation:

3. The Role of Central Banks

4. Historical Context and Case Studies

5. Recommendations for Policymakers

• Fiscal Discipline:
• Productive Investment:
• Transparent Communication:
• Diversification:

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1. HOW COUNTRIES GO BROKE — RAY DALIO’S BIG CYCLE EXPLAINED

Ray Dalio’s latest book, How Countries Go Broke: The Big Cycle, offers a clear and sobering explanation of how great nations rise and fall - not through sudden external shocks, but through predictable internal cycles of debt, excess, and mismanagement. This is not a book of abstract theory - it’s meant for understanding the slow and often self-inflicted collapse of economies, including our own.

2. THE BIG DEBT CYCLE — A PATTERN REPEATED THROUGH HISTORY

Dalio’s central claim is simple: countries go broke in cycles, and these cycles are surprisingly consistent across empires,  centuries and continents. The process begins with healthy borrowing and ends with currency collapse, political instability, and often regime change as a new Order is born.

The Big Cycle has four broad stages:

Early Stage: Borrowing is modest and productive. The economy grows. Confidence builds.

Mid Stage: Debt grows faster than income. Asset prices boom. Politicians avoid austerity.

Late Stage: The country becomes addicted to borrowing. Interest payments soar. Growth slows. Central banks print money to fill the gap.

Crisis Stage: Inflation rises. The currency devalues. Foreign investors flee. Social unrest grows. The debt can no longer be serviced.

At this point, the country is bankrupt—even if it doesn’t admit it.

3. THE ROLE OF CENTRAL BANKS AND POLITICAL SHORT-TERMISM

According to Dalio, the modern central bank doesn’t prevent crises, it delays them. By lowering interest rates and buying government bonds (QE quantitative easing), central banks enable politicians to continue borrowing and spending. But this only shifts the pain and the burden to the future, often worsening the eventual reckoning.

And the political class? Dalio is blunt. They are trapped in the incentives of the election cycle. He could talk more about the lobbies.. Raising taxes or cutting spending is unpopular. So instead, they rely on cheap money and denial ... until the bond market revolts.

4. CASE STUDIES — THIS ISN’T THEORY, IT’S HISTORY

Dalio draws on dozens of real-world examples to show that the Big Cycle plays out again and again:

The Great Depression (1930s USA): Massive debt from the 1920s, deflation, social unrest, and global protectionism.

The 1970s Inflation Crisis: Loose monetary policy, oil shocks, rising interest rates.

The 2008 Financial Crisis: Excessive private debt, cheap credit, systemic fragility.

Modern Emerging Markets: Argentina, Turkey, Sri Lanka—nations that fell into currency collapse and default after foreign capital dried up.

Dalio warns that the U.S. is now in the late stage of its Big Cycle.

5. WHAT SHOULD GOVERNMENTS DO?

Dalio isn’t fatalistic—he offers solutions. But they require political will and economic discipline:

Keep debt below 3% of GDP.

Use borrowing for productive investment, not short-term consumption.

Encourage long-term planning over election-cycle thinking.

Prepare early, because when the crisis arrives, it’s too late.

6. BROADER IMPLICATIONS — THIS IS ABOUT POWER, NOT JUST MONEY

While Dalio is an economist, his conclusions have geopolitical weight. As a country’s finances deteriorate, its power declines. Economic fragility invites external threats. Military ambition becomes increasingly unaffordable. Civil unrest becomes uncontainable. In Dalio’s model, debt is not just a balance sheet item, it is the litmus test of national viability.

As the U.S. faces growing deficits, political paralysis, and monetary overreach, Dalio’s warning is not at all theoretical or abstract, it is immediate and practical.

7. GLOSSARY

Big Debt Cycle: Dalio’s term for the multi-decade pattern of borrowing, overextension, crisis, and reset.

Quantitative Easing: Central bank policy of buying government bonds to lower interest rates and inject liquidity.

Currency Devaluation: When a currency loses value relative to others, often leading to inflation.

Fiscal Discipline: Government policy of managing spending and borrowing within sustainable limits.

Sovereign Default: When a country is unable to repay its national debt.

8. REFERENCES

Dalio, Ray. How Countries Go Broke: The Big Cycle. Bridgewater Associates, 2024.

Dalio, Ray. Principles for Navigating Big Debt Crises. Bridgewater Publishing, 2018.

Reinhart, Carmen & Rogoff, Kenneth. This Time is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly. Princeton University Press, 2009.

BIS Annual Report (2023): www.bis.org

IMF Fiscal Monitor (2024): www.imf.org

Final thought: Countries don’t go broke suddenly. They do so gradually, then all at once. Ray Dalio’s book tells policymakers, investors and rhe public what is really going on and how to correct the system.

If we don't understand the pattern, we will inevitably repeat it.

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TWO CENTURIES OF WAR WEST V. RUSSIA

2 June 2025

1. A Long War Against Russia

Russia’s intervention in Ukraine on 24 February 2022 is widely portrayed in Western media as a unilateral act of aggression. But in Moscow - and across much of the Global South - it is viewed as the latest chapter in a two-century-long Western campaign to check, contain, fragment and pillage Russia. This is not a conspiracy theory, it is a matter of documented geopolitical fact.

2. Western Campaigns Against Russia Since 1812

Western states have repeatedly organised themselves into coalitions to confront Russia militarily, often with the stated aim of “balance of power” or “humanitarian intervention”, but consistently resulting in the weakening of Russia’s influence or territory.

2.1 Napoleon’s Invasion (1812)

France, supported by numerous European nations, launched the largest land invasion in history to crush Russian resistance to continental hegemony. The disastrous failure of this expedition did not however mean the end of Western suspicion of Russian power.

Napoleon had just triumphed over Austria and Prussia and established client states across Europe. He imagined himself the architect of a united continent under French influence. Russia stood as the final major power not fully under his control or aligned with his interests.

Napoleon invaded Russia in 1812 primarily because Tsar Alexander I had broken with the Continental System, Napoleon’s economic blockade against Britain. This system, established in 1806, aimed to cripple Britain’s economy by forbidding European trade with it. Russia initially complied but found it disastrous for its own economy, which depended heavily on British trade, especially exports of grain and imports of manufactured goods. By 1810, Russia resumed trading with Britain.

2.2 Crimean War (1853–56)

Britain, France and the Ottoman Empire sought to halt Russia’s advance towards the Mediterranean.

The Crimean War was triggered largely by fears in Britain and France that Russia’s growing influence over the declining Ottoman Empire would give it control over the Black Sea and eventually allow it to dominate access to the Mediterranean via the Bosporus and Dardanelles straits. 

The war introduced modern media warfare and an early coalition logic that Russia must be contained.

2.3 Allied Intervention in the Russian Civil War (1918–22)

British, American, French and Japanese troops landed on Russian soil under the pretext of stabilising post-revolution chaos. In practice, they attempted to shape the post-Tsarist future...and failed.

2.4 Operation Barbarossa (1941–45)

Although this was Nazi Germany’s war, Hitler’s invasion force was composed of troops from many European countries. Russians remember this as the last total war, an existential invasion that was met with the need for a quite staggering sacrifice on their part.

2.5 Cold War and NATO (1947–91)

The containment of the USSR became official Western policy, reinforced by nuclear arms races, proxy wars, and the construction of NATO. From a Russian viewpoint, this was four decades of encirclement, threats and impoverishment.

3. Post-Soviet Wars and the Yugoslavia Precedent

After the USSR collapsed, Russia was promised “not one inch eastward” in NATO expansion. That promise was broken. But before the waves of NATO enlargement reached Russia’s doorstep, the alliance tested its post-Cold War power in Yugoslavia.

3.1 The NATO Bombing of Serbia (1999)

Russia’s historic Slavic and Orthodox ally, Serbia, was bombed by NATO without UN approval. The attack, justified as humanitarian intervention over Kosovo, was a wake-up call for Moscow: if Belgrade can be bombed, so can we. Putin later described it as “a turning point".

3.2 Yugoslavia as Strategic Laboratory

The dismemberment of Yugoslavia, through sanctions, colour revolutions, partition, and airstrikes, was viewed by many Russian analysts as a prototype for later strategies used in Georgia (2008), Ukraine (2014), and beyond. Serbia was the first post-Cold War casualty of unipolar enforcement.

4. 2022: A War With History

The war in Ukraine is not just about NATO or territory. It is not a proxy war. For Russia, it is the culmination of a long pattern of Western encirclement, where every advance of NATO, every "proxy" war, and every economic sanction, echoes all the previous campaigns. The siege of Leningrad. The carpet bombing of Belgrade. The Maidan coup. From Moscow’s viewpoint, these are not separate episodes, they are one war. It is seen as a direct war: Ukraine is doing the fighting on behalf of the Western coalition. 

The war in the theatre of Ukraine can be traced from 22 February 2014 with the Maidan coup in Kiev, back to the Bucharest summit of 2008's decision to include Ukraine in NATO, and further back still to Clinton's fateful decision in 1994 to expand NATO eastward.

It’s about geopolitics. The idea of a Eurasian bloc - Germany, Russia, China - terrifies Anglo-American strategists going back to Halford Mackinder (1904). Preventing such a bloc is a doctrinal imperative of Western grand strategy.

5. Conclusion: Nothing New, Just the Endgame

Seen through Russian eyes, the "unprovoked invasion" of 24 February 2022 is not a beginning. It is the continuation of over two centuries of conflict - sometimes overt, sometimes covert - between Western coalitions and Russian statehood. NATO is not so much a defensive alliance, as the military arm of a geopolitical project - currently, we have "project Ukraine". And so for Russia, this war is simply the latest - and perhaps final - confrontation in that long and bitter story, that it is expected will end in a disastrous and strategic and possibly final defeat for the West.

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BREAKFAST IDENTITIES

2 June 2025

BREAKFAST IDENTITIES

1. Introduction: Breakfast as Cultural Expression

Breakfast is more than a functional start to the day; it is a social and cultural event. The way societies structure, value, and consume breakfast reflects broader ideas of time discipline, social structure, national identity, and globalisation. This paper examines four culturally significant breakfast traditions - English, Scottish, Continental, and Indonesian - to explore how the morning meal functions as a ritualised practice revealing values, identities, and lived rhythms.

2. The English Breakfast: Institutional Ritual

The full English breakfast is a legacy of Britain’s industrial and imperial history. Comprising sausages, bacon, eggs, mushrooms, tomatoes, baked beans, toast, and occasionally black pudding, it is calorically dense and symbolically loaded. This meal functions as a ritualistic performance of British identity, evoking notions of respectability, consistency, and social order.

It is often consumed in cafés, hotels, bed-and-breakfast establishments, "greasy spoon" and remains one of the most enduring food practices in modern Britain. In a rapidly transforming society, the full English breakfast endures as a nostalgic assertion of national continuity and personal discipline.

3. The Scottish Breakfast: Landscape and Identity

Scotland's breakfast builds on the English tradition but introduces elements unique to its geography and cultural heritage. The presence of Lorne sausage, tattie scones, black pudding, and haggis ties the meal to the rugged Highlands, where sustenance is linked with survival.

Here, breakfast communicates resilience and authenticity. The ruggedness of the Scottish landscape is encoded in the calorific content and earthy flavours of the meal. It is a culinary reflection of stoicism and a quietly poetic connection to land and labour.

4. The Continental Breakfast: Minimalism and Mobility

By contrast, the Continental breakfast - common in France, Italy, and Spain - is light, rapid, and elegant. It typically includes bread or pastry, butter, jam, and coffee or tea. In hotel and café contexts, this breakfast is a gesture rather than a meal, a social placeholder rather than a nutritional event.

The Continental breakfast reflects a cultural priority on aesthetics, leisure, and rhythm over substance. It implies a mobile, urban life where breakfast is a prelude to productivity rather than a pause in it.

5. The Indonesian Breakfast: Informality and Abundance

In Indonesia, breakfast is practical, warm, and often indistinct from other meals. Dishes such as nasi goreng (fried rice), bubur ayam (chicken porridge), or lontong sayur (rice cakes in coconut curry) are not confined to a breakfast category. Food is often consumed in communal outdoor settings, prepared by street vendors, and flavoured with mild spice.

This breakfast practice prioritises adaptability and shared space over ceremony. It reveals a social orientation toward community, informality, and pragmatism — a form of nourishment that bridges time and place.

6. Glossary and Etymological Notes

Breakfast: From Old English "brecan" (to break) + "fæstan" (to fast), referring to the breaking of the overnight fast.

Tattie scone: A potato-based griddle cake from Scotland.

Lorne sausage: A square sausage made from minced meat and spices, typical in Scottish breakfasts.

Nasi goreng: Indonesian fried rice, often flavoured with sweet soy sauce and topped with egg.

Lontong sayur: Rice cakes served with a spiced coconut vegetable stew.

Continental: Used in contrast with British customs, typically referring to light European breakfasts of French or Italian origin.

Breakfast is deeply embedded in religious and cultural schedules. While European models tend toward formalisation, equatorial and tropical regions maintain flexible, often savoury and portable practices. Fasting traditions, such as Ramadan, Lent, or Buddhist morning abstinence, further shape the experience.

7. Recipes

English Breakfast: Fry sausages, bacon, and eggs. Grill tomatoes and mushrooms. Heat baked beans. Serve with toast and tea.

Scottish Breakfast: Fry Lorne sausage and black pudding. Prepare tattie scones with mashed potato, flour, and butter. Add poached egg and toast.

Continental Breakfast: Warm croissants or bread. Serve with butter, jam, and coffee. Juice optional.

Indonesian Breakfast: Stir-fry cooked rice with garlic, chilli, sweet soy sauce, and egg. Garnish with fried shallots and cucumber. Serve with sweet tea.

8. Typologies of the Breakfast Eater

English: The Loyal Traditionalist — values ritual, order, and cultural heritage.

Scottish: The Rugged Stoic — grounded, self-reliant, closely tied to land and tradition.

Continental: The Elegant Minimalist — prioritises form, discretion, and cultural rhythm.

Indonesian: The Joyful Pragmatist — flexible, sociable, and integrated into communal life.

9. Conclusion: Breakfast as Self-Disclosure

Breakfast reveals more than nutritional preference. It encapsulates rhythms of identity, mobility, and meaning. Whether minimalist or abundant, ceremonial or improvised, breakfast symbolises how we orient ourselves in the world. It asks - and answers - the question: who are you when you wake?

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PEARL CULTURES

30 May 2025

Comparing Japan's entrance ceremonies and equivalent Indonesian practices, especially around pearls, formality, and school traditions.

1. ENTRANCE CEREMONIES IN JAPAN – FORMALITY & PEARLS

Known as nyūgakushiki (入学式)

Held in April for new students entering school, high school, or university

Ceremony includes speeches, national anthem, formal clothing

For mothers and women attending:

Pearl jewellery is common and symbolic: modest, elegant, appropriate

Wearing pearls at such events is an unspoken cultural norm, not a fashion statement

Pearls are also worn at:

Weddings

Graduations

Funerals (subdued)

2. SCHOOL ENTRY IN INDONESIA – INFORMAL & COMMUNITY-BASED

Indonesia has no direct equivalent to Japan’s “entrance ceremony”. Here's how school beginnings differ:

First day of school (usually in July) is low-key

Students may join MOS (Masa Orientasi Siswa) or MPLS (Masa Pengenalan Lingkungan Sekolah)

Orientation week

Students wear uniforms, but parents rarely attend

There is no national culture of dressing up or ceremonial attendance by family

Wearing pearls?

Unlikely.

Pearls are worn in Indonesia for:

Weddings

Graduations (sometimes)

Cultural dress (kebaya) events – mostly among Javanese, Minang, or Bugis women

In general, pearl jewellery is associated with wealth, status, or coastal regions (e.g. Lombok), not school rituals

3. CULTURAL CONTRAST – JAPAN vs INDONESIA

Category: Japan (Nyūgakushiki) - Indonesia (School Start)

Formality: Very formal - Casual to moderate

Parental attendance: Expected - Rare

Clothing: Suits, subdued tones - School uniform only

Jewellery: Pearls common for women - No jewellery expected or required

Symbolism of pearls: Respect, elegance, modesty - Luxury, wealth, tradition (rarely school-related)

4. GLOSSARY

Nyūgakushiki (入学式) – Japanese entrance ceremony

MPLS / MOS – Indonesian school orientation programme

Kebaya – Traditional Indonesian women's dress

Pearls in Indonesia – Associated with eastern Indonesia (Lombok, Sumbawa, Ambon), luxury, and export

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TRUMP'S PLAN AND HIS ENEMIES INCL EUROPE

30 May 2025

What will happen next?

Trump's MAGA goal is to definancialise the economy and end the wars. I'm not sure he'd be ready to accept the losses of dollar reserve status and hegemony, ie a multipolar world with three spheres of influence and more cooperative Modus Operandi ( in particular, the other sides in trade deals expected to cooperate by giving concessions in return for security protection). 

His plan for China is to win round Russia.

But no matter, he's taking a battering from his enemies, hence he is forced into flip-flopping, he's not making any headway with implementation and he has lost credibility and authority.

His enemies are from the status quo of course. They want to force back a unipolar world, lost around 2017 with the serious rise of China. The status quo economy flourishes on war, but relies on constant expansion of the money supply, raising inflation and interest rates, making it unsustainable. The status quo is also hegemony, and foreign profits reinvested in the assets inflating the wealth of the elite.

The elite - the governors - are a shadowy group - banks, insurers, hedge funds - and behind them an AIPAC-type lobby controlling Congress, elected assemblies, and directing liquidity flows.

https://www.youtube.com/live/aCpXRsssHZ0?si=Cfw9z5Xk503W_SIm

Where is Europe? Trump sees a BoP deficit of $300b and wants it back. Europe fears Trump's plans means it loses cheap protection and their economy will be ruined to restore American manufacturing.

Their plan is to provoke Russia, keep the war going and America in Europe, oust Trump. Germany is the current standard-bearer - no limits means Taurus strikes on Moscow.

This could all end badly -  badly for America at least and quite possibly for mankind on this planet!

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1. Core Thesis: Economic Shock as Strategy

Trump and senior officials describe their agenda as “economic shock therapy”, likening it to a necessary, painful reset to break dependency on low-wage imports and excessive government spending.

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2. Tariffs and Protectionism

Tariffs on imports—especially from China—are central. The administration accepts that this will raise costs for consumers, but believes it will rejuvenate U.S. industry in the medium term.

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3. Detox from Deficit and Bureaucracy

Treasury Secretary Bessent said: “We’ve become addicted to this government spending… There’s going to be a detox period.” The goal is to reduce deficits while cutting government involvements and reorienting the economy toward productive sectors.

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4. Tax Cuts and Social Program Cuts

The Big Beautiful Bill enacted sweeping tax cuts and spending reductions in welfare and healthcare, shifting funds toward defence and border security. This mix of fiscal retrenchment and tax relief is intended to support industrial renewal, but places short-term strain on lower-income households.

---

5. Accepting Short-Term Pain for Long-Term Gain

Officials acknowledge the prospect of inflation, recession, and market disruption. Farmers and exporters may face difficulties. Consumers will feel inflation from tariffs. Stock markets might drop.

---

6. Broader Strategy: Unorthodox Trumponomics

This policy represents a paradigm shift from traditional Republican economics—industrial subsidies, capital controls, and strategic trade security carve-outs.

---

7. Risk and Reward

Potential rewards include a revival of manufacturing, reduced trade deficits, and fresh fiscal health. But risks include global retaliation, weakened recovery, an inflation-wage spiral, and the erosion of trust in conservative economic orthodoxy.

---

8. Political Gamble

The administration is counting on Republican voters' optimism, even amid cost pressures. Red-state voters are more tolerant of inflation if it brings industrial revival. But real-world pain (higher food costs, job losses in trade-dependent industries) could erode support.

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Glossary

Economic shock therapy means deliberate, large-scale disruption to reset economic structures. A tariff is a tax on imports, used here to incentivise domestic manufacturing. Deficit detox refers to the intentional reduction of government spending and borrowing. Trumponomics is Trump-era economic policy focused on protectionism and security-linked trade.

---

Conclusion

Trump’s team is embarking on bold economic experimentation—accepting short-term hardship to pursue long-term structural change. Whether the reset achieves its industrial aims or provokes deeper instability depends on global pushback, domestic reaction, and whether the predicted benefits outweigh the immediate sacrifices.

---

Here’s a summarised analysis of the FT article “We have to rebuild our country: Donald Trump and his team pursue economic shock therapy”, conveying the main insights:

1. Core Thesis: Economic Shock as Strategy

Trump and senior officials describe their agenda as “economic shock therapy”, likening it to a necessary, painful reset to break dependency on low-wage imports and excessive government spending.  

2. Tariffs and Protectionism

Tariffs on imports, especially from China, are central. The administration accepts that this will raise costs for consumers, but believes it will rejuvenate U.S. industry in the medium term.

3. Detox from Deficit and Bureaucracy

Treasury Secretary Bessent said:

> “We’ve become addicted to this government spending… There’s going to be a detox period.”  

The goal is to reduce deficits while cutting government involvements and reorienting the economy toward productive sectors.

4. Tax Cuts and Social Program Cuts

The Big Beautiful Bill enacted sweeping tax cuts and spending reductions in welfare and healthcare, shifting funds toward defence and border security.

This mix of fiscal retrenchment and tax relief is intended to support industrial renewal—but places short-term strain on lower-income households.

5. Accepting Short-Term Pain for Long-Term Gain

Officials acknowledge the prospect of inflation, recession, and market disruption:

Farmers and exporters may face difficulties.

Consumers will feel inflation from tariffs.

Stock markets might drop.  

6. Broader Strategy: Unorthodox Trumponomics

This policy represents a paradigm shift from traditional Republican economics - which are about industrial subsidies, capital controls, and strategic trade security carve-outs.  

7. Risk & Reward

Rewards: Potential revival of manufacturing, reduced trade deficits, renewed fiscal health.

Risks: Global retaliation, weakened recovery, inflation wage spiral, and potential erosion of trust in conservative economic orthodoxy.  

8. Political Gamble

The administration is counting on Republican voters' optimism, even amid cost pressures:

Red-state voters are more tolerant of inflation if it brings industrial revival.

But real-world pain (higher food costs, job losses in trade-dependent industries) could erode support.  

Glossary

Economic shock therapy: Deliberate, large-scale disruption to reset economic structures.

Tariff: A tax on imports, used here to incentivise domestic manufacturing.

Deficit detox: Intentional reduction of government spending and borrowing.

Trumponomics: Trump-era economic policy focused on protectionism and security-linked trade.

Conclusion

Trump’s team is embarking on bold economic experimentation, all the while accepting short-term hardship to pursue long-term structural change. Whether the reset achieves its industrial aims or provokes deeper instability depends on global pushback, domestic reaction, and whether the predicted benefits outweigh the immediate sacrifices.

We have to rebuild our country’: Donald Trump and his team pursue economic shock therapy 

3References

https://youtu.be/IptKs2RqbaY?si=3gOZyNDaLMoBBcu9

https://www.livingintheair.org/2025/05/uk-elite-betrays-people-in-eu-trade-deal.html

Is Trump Missing the Boat?

https://youtu.be/4bn943sPgI0?si=gAsXsLK8IJsDZcTt

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IS TRUMP MISSING THE BOAT

29 May 2025

Is Trump Missing the Boat?

1. European Strategy: War as a Hedge Against Trump

Former diplomat Alastair Crooke argues that European elites are not just waging war on Russia, they're trying to derail Donald Trump's economic programme.

European leaders fear Trump's economic programme could devastate Europe's competitiveness, markets and innovation initiatives.

By intensifying the war in Ukraine, they aim to trap the U.S. in a confrontation with Russia, weakening Trump's effort to pivot to Asia.

Crooke sees this as a desperate attempt by Anglo-Zionist elites to keep Trump boxed in. 

2. The Russian Mood: No Turning Back

In St. Petersburg, long known as Russia's liberal face to the West, Crooke found a population unified in anger.

Russians across the board, including former Westernisers, now support the war as existential.

Years of anti-Russian rhetoric, cultural demonisation, and economic sanctions have hardened attitudes.

Russians now believe that unless they fight this war to a final and conclusive end by resolving the root causes of the conflict, another Western attack is, using another proxie, inevitable. 

3. Putin's Calculations and Trump’s Weakness

Putin plays at negotiation, says Crooke, to satify world / American public opinion and reassure allies like China and Iran.

Trump, once seen as a wildcard with potential for a reset, has turned out a disappointment.

Russians view his transactional style as crass and disrespectful: offering ceasefires in exchange for territory isn't peace, it's horse-trading.

Worse, Trump's inconsistency shows weakness. Russians now believe he lacks the command to follow through on his own words. 

4. Intelligence Realities: The CIA's War

Crooke reminds us the CIA is running the war. Biden signed an "executive order" giving the agency authority to direct strikes inside Russia.

Trump could rescind this, but hasn't. That makes him complicit, or at least politically impotent.

Even Republican senators like Marco Rubio are deflecting blame, pretending sanctions are out of Trump’s hands.

The Kremlin reads this as theatre. They no longer believe Washington is serious about peace. 

5. Endgame: Destabilise Trump, Box in Russia

Crooke concludes: Europe can't start a full-scale war, but it can escalate tensions.

The goal? Push Trump to act against Russia, undermine him, and preserve the post-1990s order.

Meanwhile, Russia and Iran now share rhe same point of view: Trump is unreliable, and the U.S. is in strategic disarray, unable to execute.

If America wants peace, it must rediscover consistency and credible leadership. Right now, says Crooke, it's lost both.

Background reference

https://youtu.be/4bn943sPgI0?si=gAsXsLK8IJsDZcTt

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CAMPARI OR PASTIS

29 May 2025

CAMPARI

What is Campari? Interesting question - and not so simple! Campari is more than a drink; it’s a cultural signal. The typical Campari drinker varies slightly by country and generation, but let’s build a reliable profile based on consumer studies, brand strategy, and lifestyle signals.

1. Age and Demographic

Primarily aged 30–55

Urban, educated, and relatively affluent

Balanced gender appeal, though it skews slightly male in traditional markets and female in newer cocktail scenes

2. Geographic Focus

Strongest in Italy, France, Germany, and Switzerland

Gaining ground in UK, USA, and Asia as cocktail culture spreads

3. Lifestyle and Personality Traits

Culturally curious, likely to travel, read, and appreciate design or the arts

Prefers classic but stylish experiences — jazz over EDM, gallery openings over sports bars

Enjoys bitterness, suggesting a refined palate (as bitterness is usually acquired, not innate)

4. Taste Preferences

Enjoys aperitifs and cocktail rituals, often with food

Gravitate towards complex, aromatic drinks rather than sweet, fruity ones

May also drink vermouth, dry sherry or negroni

5. Brand Associations

Campari positions itself with a blend of:

Heritage and sophistication (through its Italian origins)

Art and design (vintage posters, partnerships with cinema and fashion)

Rebellion and edge (through its bitter taste and bold red colour)

This makes it a drink for someone who feels cosmopolitan, independent, contrarian, and not too worried about following mainstream taste.

6. Archetypal Drinkers

The Italian gentleman or lady sipping a Negroni in Milan at aperitivo hour

The Brooklyn creative, ordering a Boulevardier at a speakeasy

The London foodie, making a Campari and soda before dinner

Conclusion

The typical Campari drinker is urban, tasteful, worldly, defiant without being extremist.

They like their flavours like their fashion: bold, slightly bitter, deeply stylish.

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1. The psychological profile of Campari and Pastis drinkers

2. A comparative table of identity

3. The manufacturing process for each drink

1. Introduction: Bitterness and the Soul of a Drinker

Some drinks are not just tastes — they are identities.

In the world of aperitifs, few beverages divide and delight like Campari and Pastis.

Both are steeped in tradition, driven by ritual, and rooted in a cultural landscape. Yet, one evokes the elegance of Milanese terraces; the other, the slow, hot late afternoons on the beaches of the côte d'azur.

To understand the true difference, we need to look beyond flavour and into lifestyle, psychology, and process.

2. Campari vs Pastis: The Persona Behind the Glass

Campari drinkers and Pastis drinkers might both enjoy bitterness — but what they seek from it differs. Here’s a psychological snapshot of the typical drinker:

Campari Drinker

Urban, cultured, often in their 30s–50s

Enjoys art, design, cinema, and conversation

Leans into bold flavours and strong impressions

Sociable, stylish, contrarian

Aperitif time is sacred: a signal of taste, not just habit

Pastis Drinker

Slower-paced, nostalgic, rooted in landscape

Enjoys philosophy, routine, conversation and competition

Sips, never gulps — and always with water

Prefers authenticity to novelty

Evokes the countryside, the sea, the past

One is a gesture outward, the other a gesture inward.

Yet both hold space for memory, reflection, and flavour that pushes back rather than flatters.

3. The Identity Table: Aperitif Archetypes

Trait Campari Pastis

Origin Italy (Milan, 1860s) France (Marseille, 1930s)

Mood Stylish, modern, urban Rustic, nostalgic, meditative

Flavour Bitter, orange, herbal Aniseed, herbal, refreshing

Setting Rooftop bar or aperitivo terrace Village square or seaside petanque

Persona Cultured contrarian, design-forward Bohemian philosopher, regional soul

To like both, as I do, is to enjoy contradiction: bitter angles and soft shadows, espresso and thyme, Milan and Marseille.

4. What’s in the Bottle: How They're Made

These aren't simple drinks — their production reflects the depth of their different identities. Here’s how each is manufactured:

4.1 Campari – Red Bitterness Refined

Made by infusing alcohol with a secret recipe of barks, roots, citrus peel, herbs.

Sweetened and filtered after extraction.

Once coloured with cochineal, now mostly artificial dye.

Bottled between 20.5–28.5% ABV, depending on the market.

Bold, herbal, dry and bittersweet — it's the drink of urban design and ritual contrast.

4.2 Pastis – Provençal Anise in a Glass and Jug

Created by flavouring alcohol with anise, star anniset, liquorice, fennel, and regional herbs.

Oils are distilled or macerated, then diluted with water and sugar.

Bottled at around 45% ABV — strong, but diluted before drinking.

It clouds when water is added, releasing aromatic oils — a symbol of slowness and change.

5. Summary Table: Craft and Character

Drink Base Spirit Flavours & Botanicals ABV Vibe

Campari Neutral alcohol Citrus peel, herbs, roots (secret blend) 20–28% Bitter elegance, Milanese aperitivo

Pastis Neutral alcohol Anise, liquorice, Provençal herbs ~45% Rustic, reflective, Mediterranean soul

6. Conclusion: A Matter of Palate and Personality

To drink Campari is to say yes to edge, bitterness, style — to take pleasure in resistance.

To drink Pastis is to say yes to memory, ritual, and the taste of timelessness.

To drink both? That’s not contradiction, it’s character.

Whether you stand under the neon of a Milanese bar, or sit beneath the shadow of a Provençal plane tree, you’ll know which drink is yours.

Or if you’re like me, maybe on different days, they are both yours, two mistresses.

[END]

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