Institutions stop functioning, governments lose authority and break their own as well as international rules
Currencies lose value, savings evaporate, at first there is a rush for the dollar and then it is abandoned, hard assets and necessities keep pace with inflation, trade freezes up
Elites turn on each other, Pinky and Perky become Punch and Judy, from consensus to chaos, while the public can only think "survival"
Infrastructure decays, borders blur, society fragments, the military fractures.
What we have is a dominant centre (the U.S./ West, maritime) that builds globalisation, then overspends and overextends, and now faces rival powers (China, continental) and structural fatigue.
The next crisis won’t be just economic this time... it will reflect a systemic shift to a multi-nodal global order, a moment where the US empire no longer holds the levers of power it once did.... and has shown no signs of being able to adapt to this kind of Order (they won't listen, they send in the military; where common sense suggests they should negotiate a losing hand).
The signs are with us. The collapse isn’t far, it’s set up already.... we have a sequence but no clear timeline. For sure, it won’t all fail at once, it'll unravel piece by piece, until a normal, stable and surprise-free life becomes a distant memory.... then there will be a recalibration and New Order of some sort.
Here is a five-stage sequence of collapse, with brief examples illustrating each step.
1. Fiscal Overstretch - Living Beyond Means
- Empires spend more than they earn — on welfare, wars, and vanity projects.
- Example: Late-stage Rome debased its coinage to fund armies; the U.S. will incur a $2 trillion deficit this year.
2. Market Rebellion - The Bond Revolt
- Investors lose confidence and demand higher interest to lend. Debt servicing balloons; new borrowing pays off old debt ("debt monetisation" aka a Ponzi scheme).
- Example: The U.K.’s 2022 gilt crisis forced the Bank of England to step in; Italy in 2011 nearly went insolvent on rising yields.
3. Currency Erosion - Printing and Panic
- Central banks print to cover deficits. Inflation eats savings, capital flees, gold and hard assets soar.
- Example: Weimar Germany 1923; more mildly, the post-Covid surge of U.S. money supply that fuelled asset inflation.
4. Social Fracture - The Revolt of the Debtors
- Prices rise, wages stagnate in real terms, services collapse. Trust in elites erodes; protests and populists fill the streets.
- Example: France’s gilets jaunes; U.S. polarisation and street unrest; collapsing faith in parliaments (in democracy) across Europe.
5. Institutional Breakdown - From Gridlock to Chaos
- Governments turn inward, bureaucracy freezes, corruption explodes, freedoms are restricted and the military or regions assert autonomy.
- Example: Late-Soviet paralysis in the 1980s; Washington gridlock and politicised justice today; failing states in West Asia from Lebanon to Libya; France's five Prime Ministers (5, sic) since 2022.
Summary
Collapse starts slowly in the bond markets, moves through money, and ends in public rebellion. Collapse is when people stop believing the system can fix itself.
That’s how empires die, that's how this Empire will die: first financially, then socially, then spiritually.
0 comments:
Post a Comment
Keep it clean, keep it lean