PARTYGATE

25 May 2022

All the crocodile tears, ok never mind. Big question is:

"What did they know that we didn't?"

No-one risks throwing away their life for a glass of wine. Conclusion: there was no risk, not to these people. And they knew it.

For me, there are two possible explanations, one is political and the other psychological.

The, the govt, could not lock down particular sections of the population and let other groups, the majority, carry on with their life, without obviously risking huge civil strife and dislocation .

How could they lockdown the elderly, the weak and probably the poor and let the majority carry on and party through covid?

A quite different explanation from a human nature point of view and a quite sinister appreciation of Human Nature: this is what happens when a government wins absolute Power - they just abuse it. They abuse and take away our freedom, because they can - that's what almost all politicians are interested in : the power to control the lives of others ... sick, isn't it.

A taste of 1984, a taste of things to come, if you give them the chance to take away your freedom, you can be sure they will.

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AMERICA STARTED THIS WAR

 25 May 2022

DIPLOMACY OR MILITARY

                Macron has kept open an intelligence line and works, in Europen style, on the diplomacy Macron is quite right to want to avoid humiliation - he knows his history, his country suffered most after Germany was humiliated at Versailles.

But a different advice comes from arch realist Kissinger. Concede the land taken and call it quits. And this, most observers think, is what will happen.

Let's hope it comes to pass because otherwise of all the American blenders since the Cold War this will surely be the greatest.

I don't know if you can say that this has been the most stupid of America's Wars, but there is no question that the solution, when it comes, had been available before the War started.  

AMERICA'S MOTIVATION

  Although Putin invaded Ukraine, the Americans started this war for the same reason as they started all their other wars, going back to the time of the Dulles brothers and the Monroe doctrine.

Looking out from America, the President, whoever he may be, sees Asia on the one hand across the Pacific and Europe on the other across the Atlantic . What America will not tolerate is a regional hegemon emerging in Asia or Europe. It does not want Germany or Russia or China, forming an alliance with one or more countries in the Americas, and threatening its world domination.

The aim of this war has been cited many times, and by Biden and Pelosi, and it is quite simply to weaken Russia.

How they do it can be found in the report from RAND : RR3063.pdf. It details 15 dark op.s, amongst other things.

This is very dark, deep realpolitik. But the explanation America gives the public is the liberal rhetoric - call it propaganda - that we read every day in our newspapers and watch on breakfast TV.         

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"THIS UNPROVOKED INVASION..."

21 May 2022

Anyone who still thinks that Russia's invasion of Ukraine was "unprovoked" could take a look at the advice the American government commissioned from RAND and has been following for the last 3 years. 

Then, look back to Maidan 2014/5, a purely internal event? Or orchestrated by the CIA? Which led to Russia's officially annexing Crimea.

The RAND report examines a range of "nonviolent" measures - such as arming Ukraine - the United States could take to stress (it says "extend") Russia's military, its economy and the regime's political standing at home and abroad.

The "measures" (dark ops projects) would not have defense or deterrence as their prime purpose, although they might contribute to both. 

Rather, they would provoke Russia into competing in  areas where the United States has a competitive advantage, causing Russia to overextend itself militarily or economically or causing the regime to lose domestic and/or international prestige and  influence.

RAND presented their report in 2019. They developed 15 ops-proposals in all - here are six to destabilise Russia in the geopolitical domain:

Measure 1: Provide Lethal Aid to Ukraine

Measure 2: Increase Support to the Syrian Rebels

Measure 3: Promote Regime Change in Belarus

Measure 4: Exploit Tensions in the South Caucasus

Measure 5: Reduce Russian Influence in Central Asia

Measure 6: Challenge Russian Presence in Moldova.

Summary

https://www.rand.org/news/press/2019/04/24.html

The report

https://www.coursehero.com/file/145273602/RAND-RR3063pdf/

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EUROPEAN TREATY ORGANISATION

12 May 2022

 

Europe really needs to take care of itself. This is a long-term goal that became a possibility, more a dream really, after Brexit. The lead could be taken by Britain or France, largely with German funding.

The main opponent of such a move would of course be America. And it is a long-term goal because manufacturing the support of the numerous European elites, within or without the EU, is no mean challenge. Then there is the technological challenge of catching up with American weaponry which again would not be easy given the smaller volume runs.

But Europe has easily the potential to be the number one world top dog and I'm sure this is always what is in the back of Johnson's mind, even if onstage he behaves as America's chief pom-pom girl. Furthermore, this advisor's original advice (writing as "Dig Two Graves", since this was the risk if the EU failed to make substantive concessions) after the Brexit win was to include Russia in such an alliance on the basis of its commodities and agriculture, and that one should “keep your friends close, and your enemies closer".

This makes eminent sense today though it is alas rather too late - with America in charge, we've reached a pretty awful state all round.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/05/11/british-soldiers-could-defend-sweden-finland-russian-invasion/

1644

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UK TAKE THE LEAD IN EUROPEAN DEFENSE

11 May 2022

                 CSA recommended in the aftermath of Brexit that Europe take care if itself and that this would fall to France or Britain to organise and lead, largely paid for by Germany.

The lead time may be long - political consensus takes time to build, European technology lags behind in most areas, the production volumes are not there at present - but the need is urgent as we cannot have American interference in our affairs and the disasters that always follow, we must take charge of our destiny.

Recall the reason for America's ingerence : they seek to preserve their world dominion and see Europe, particulary an alliance between Germany and Russia, as the most likely threat. They are right.             

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THE AMERICANS

10 May 2022

A fascinating exploration of the lives of Foster and Alan Dulles:

So much is so very very wrong. The Americas, Trudeau and Biden, are so way way out on a limb, far from reason and common sense.

I cannot understand this.

Don't think it is new. There is a fascinating account of the Dulles brothers instigation of six covert op.s to assasinate, overthrow, change, regimes - Iran, Guatemala, Vietnam, Indonesia, Congo, Cuba.

https://youtu.be/1PtWz4_v0j8

is.gd/jcLXAk

It's by Stephen Kinder: The Brothers

is.gd/tAN84Q

The senseless irrationality of it! With no evidence for their accusations.

That was in the 50s, but is so relevent today.

It leaves you speechless.

And the widespread popular support for this is a collective madness. Our propaganda machines are so powerful. The whole population is ready to be cannon fodder for American exceptionalism.

Europeans seem to be thoughtful and considerate, but weak and easily bullied by our mad backward former colony.

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IMMORTAL

      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vVezbVxp2Pw 

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WHAT IS ELON MUSK DOING?

 9 May 2022

                Capitalism requires freedom and private ownership. The idea is to create enterprises that buy and sell goods and services purely for profit. The limited company allowed shareholders to provide start-up capial and be included on the Board as owners.

However, what's happened is that for various reasons, the group of shareholders running the company was broadened to include all stakeholders.

These new stakeholders brought new values and additional goals to the direction of the company and thus instead of capitalism we got a left-wing corporatism. Personally, I can see this heading to a WEF world.

Musk and his band are a reform movement whose mission is to purify and restore the founding values and create a New Capitalism.             

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MAKE MONEY THROUGH ARMS SALES

8 May 2022

https://youtu.be/SAGjpzAtZUU

That is very well put together and explained. 

She says how much, who's getting it, what you get, and why war is good for business.

She quotes from Eisenhower in his farewell address to the American people on 17 Jan 1961:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eisenhower%27s_farewell_address

Eisenhower gives alternative govt uses for that money. Keeping up in the arms race is what broke the Soviet Union.

It's outside her frame in this 8 minute video to say what proportion of US debt is attributable to govt purchases, nor that US tax payers will have to repay this debt and so in the final analysis forego domestic programs - schools, hospitals, infrastructure - which could make America great again.

She does wonder if manufacturing at this scale is necessary.

She doesn't mention the inflation that QE is causing, nor the tax hikes, interest rate rises, QT, all needed to stave off collapse of the US economy. 

We are reminded in whose interests is this war - and it's not the people. And the massive death and destruction.

We don't want peace through victory, we want peace without victory.

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DARK CLOUDS

7 May 2022

Plague, war, famine, global warming, migrations, rioting.

The indicators are all on red, with major economic consequences that states cannot foresee - cause-effect chains, feedback loops, multipliers -  and may not have the resources to buffer. Eg the energy bills you mention; or who'd have thought gas and fertiliser were so tightly bound? or the 700 container ships waiting outside Shanghai port for covid clearance.

In addition, we are nearing the end of a long debt-cycle and central banks are raising rates and tightening money supply, with recession and maybe depression beckoning, clubmed economies could really suffer, the Euro is threatened, the EU even.

For investors, demand and revenues will surely be hit by inflation costs will be hit when it comes to rolling over debt at the new higher interest rates then you get into a downgraded spiral and there's no money for investment but it is precisely higher productivity that lowers prices and raises wages.

Globally, the three blocks are going down three different plugholes, with Europe probably tumbling down the deepest.

And not much of this seems to have been predictable or is much controllable. Turkey inflation is 70%, Egypt eats the most bread in the world and all the wheat comes from Russia and Ukraine. The least well-off are the most numerous,  though excessive diversification and wokism aggravates everyone, pushing govt.s to erect barriers of all kinds.

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RUSSIA'S MANIFEST DESTINY

This one had me puzzled for a while. We know that America is "the indispensable country" - God has a special providence for fools, drunkards, and the United States of America~Otto von Bismarc.

Russia’s Manifest Destiny

We can pit Patriach Krill head of the Russian Orthodox church in Moscoe, against the Pope in Rome:

Krill

"Russia has never attacked anyone — it’s amazing that such a great and powerful country has only ever defended its borders” 

"May God grant that our country remains like this till the end of the century: strong, powerful, and loved by God. . . May the Lord protect our Russian land from internecine strife and invasion by foreigners, and strengthen the Orthodox faith, the only spiritual force that can truly hold our people together.”

Pope

The Pope deplored the “macabre regression of humanity” taking place in Ukraine, and demanded an end to “continued military and verbal escalation” and the “perverse spiral of weapons”.

Manifest destiny

What is this, Russia's "manifest destiny"?

Sea power and land powers, from Athens v Sparta to Russia v America, are fated to clash. The global seat of land power — inner Eurasia aka "the Homeland", the territory of the Russian Empire — is forever  in global competition with the sea power, the United States, reprrsented in Europe by the UK, the "rimpower".

Alexander Dugin is or was a right wing intellectual and bohemian, who emerged from the time of Perestroika in the the 80s as Russia’s chief nationalist.

Russia's MVV (after Dugin, as adopted from Mackinder):

MISSION An irresistible destiny to accomplish this essential duty to expand out of the (indefensible) Eurasian plain, over the nine gateways (Baltic, Polish gap, Suwalki gap, Carpathian mountaims, Bassarabian ....), over and into Central European plain and on to the warm waters and defeat the sea people (originally UK, but now updated to the Atlantic power: the States.

VISION To redeem and remake the West in the image of Russian Orthodoxyianism...I might be wrong on this one. This is about what system of governance you want: authoritarian or democratic.

VALUES The special virtues of the Russian people (not vodkism, please) and their institutions (somewhat personalised by dear Putin, but then there was Stalin as the gold standard in dictatorship).

This follows a routine SWOT analysis based in the reality that 

GEOGRAPHY IS FATE

There are many determinants of foreign policy. Geography is the most deterministic of constraints.

The Rus were dealt a really poor hand. They are like The Hordes, a people of the plains, the Eurasian landmass is their land. The plain continues to the West onto the plain of central Europe, with - as I see it so maybe I've misunderstood - defensive natural barriers for Russia, but these are just beyond Russia's grasp.  Russia has 2,000 kilometers of long and vulnerable borderland rhat it must defend to stop any invasion from a well-funded and technologically sophisticated Western European sea-power.

What are these natural defences? The Carpathian mountains - but alas, they're in Romania! Access to the Black Sea - it's in Ukraine! (or was). The Suwalki Gap which also gives access to the Baltic Sea - it's the other side of the Balkans (but Russia has Kaliningrad at the other end of the Gap - see a map)!

And so on - there are nine such gateways that enemies use to invade (identified in a Zeihan Youtube pres.), and Russia must have them under lock and key, to feel secure. They'd need to plug the Transnistra gap in tiny Moldova. It's been invaded by the Swedes through the three Baltic countries so there are three NATO countries Putin would also need to invade (was he really planning this? Surely not.), the French through Belarus, twice by the Germans through the Polish gap, the Bessarabian gap in Romania favoured by the Turks. Azerbaijan, Armenia and Georgia complete the nontep.

Geography means Russia's manifest destiny is to expand westwards into central Europe, a messianic duty or survival necessity as you wish, and capture the nine gateways. 

So it's not about personal ambition or nationalism or imperialism or historic revenge, it is a purely rational strategy to ensure national survival, it is about Russia's understandable insecurity.

                

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