Here's the mechanism as I understand it.
Trump met the US oil execs in the Oval Office in early 2025 and the message was simple: we'll keep prices high enough for you to profit, you'll keep pumping. "Energy dominance" is the policy. ( it was part of Bessent's original meganomics - three plus three plus three 3% inflation 3% growth 3 million barrels a day more).
Here's how the playbook is supposed to work as far as I can make out:
1. The Gulf crisis (which the US started) has taken 10+ million barrels a day off the market. Price spikes. US shale producers - who need around $60-65/barrel to break even - are now selling at $105. That's a massive margin.
2. The tankers can't get OUT of the Gulf - 230+ are sitting at anchor unable to move. So the flow isn't to the US to fill up, it's more that Gulf oil is trapped and US oil fills the gap for Europe, Asia etc. Same effect, different mechanism.
3. Ukraine hitting Russian refineries simultaneously is not accidental from a US perspective - it keeps Russian supply constrained and prices elevated. Whether coordinated or just convenient, the result is the same.
4. Iran's tolls (paid in crypto/yuan to bypass sanctions) mean even the oil that does move carries a $2m per tanker surcharge - which gets passed on in the delivered price.
So yes - short term max profit is exactly right. The question is whether they can control the landing. At $105+ Brent the inflation and recession risk starts to eat into the demand that makes the profit possible. That's the trap.
