GREATER DISASTER THAN VIETNAM, IRAQ AND AFGHANISTAN

29 August 2022

The "unprovoked invasion" is being revealed as one scenario anticipated by western planners of this conflict, when Kiev stepped up its bombing of its Donbas back in 2021 and then intensified further in January and early February 22, 

With Russian acquiesence to Ukraine's joining NATO, or an outright proxy war with Russia as the two possible results; defeat for Putin and his replacement by a western sympathiser was expected in either case. 

(who would also incidentally - this is my guessing so probably seems madly misjudged - give access to China from the North, completing China's encirclement ... this bit is my guessing, but it makes sense if you see China as the major threat to American hegemony).

But things didn't turn out that way, alas. The utter disaster for the West is lapping, the tsunami is on its way, we are heading into a multi-polar world, perhaps a world in two camps, the global North, the global South. 

For example, the West is choosing recession over inflation - this choice is the result of years of outspending your income and topping up from the printing presses, but this war has brought the forces of decline to a head.

The political leaderships cling to their original assumptions. While the technical advisors - military leaders, economists and central bank officials, and also I'd guess foreign office officials responsible planning the war but also for soft power - these domain advisors have the data picture and the assessments that flow logically and objectively from this data, but the politicians do not update their assessments and plans : the Western leaders still want to weaken Russia and presumably still believe they can overturn the Putin govt. What is blocking the thinking of our leaderships?

UK's Conservative party has a great opportunity to choose a peace negotiator, but instead is choosing another war monger! 

The court of public opinion suffering from the sanctions will sooner or later see through the stupidity and injustice of their Western governments and in a democracy should unblock the leadership and rod through the new realities.

It does look like a far far greater humiliation for the West is on the way than were even the humiliations of Vietnam, Iraq and Afghanistan.

If you're looking for peace, justice and stability, and longer term prosperity, then surely you would update your vision and aims and methods, from the data your technical advisors are presenting to you, and choose compromise and co-operation as more economical, more efficient and more effective in advancing "the public interest"?

Imho, it is the role of Europe through the international institutions to explain this to America. If America wants to keep its position in the world, it needs to change its mentality.

Too commonsensical? Too much to expect? Then America, strategic danger to the planet,  press on with the war, to your ultimate destruction.

The worry is that America will take the planet with it.

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CONTINUOUS IMPROVEMENT OR RADICAL DISRUPTION?

Actually I am someone who by temperament favours continuous improvement where you make the best better and transfer best practises to poorer performing processes.

Step change or disruption is often portrayed as a choice between the staying on the burning platform or  jumping into the freezing seas.

But one reader had an interesting reply to this criticism of breaking with the past.

"Growth needs change...even broken ..

From seed to tiny plant need to be broken.

A chicken emerge when the egg broken.

Lava from mountain after eruption need to make the land fertile."

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CONDEMNED TO YEARS OF MISERY AND SQUALOR

28 August 2022

It's a bit weird that even after six months of fighting in Ukraine, people seem largely ignorant of the real causes and real consequences of this war. They made up their minds on the 24th of February on the basis of almost no understanding and they haven't moved on in the light of new and relevant evidence. Each side battles on for total victory, indifferent to the appalling casualties and costs.

Applying logic to this crisis doesn't seem to work!

But why so irrational? 

Too proud to admit a mistake? Stuck in the rut of their ideology? Plain, lazy stupidity? Politics before reason?

Mearsheimer would probably tell you that it's about the balance of power and the resolve of your adversary. To end this war requires one side to show devastating, overwhelming force; and the other side to be completely dispirited. And I'd imagine that Russia, in the light of its experience since 1991, would never trust America and its allies in Europe to actually implement any peace settlement. And whatever happens Ukraine will continue fighting asymmetrically and sabotage any peace, once it officially loses the war.

It's just America bringing misery to the world and as usual. There'll be years of misery for us on both sides; and for future generations years of squalor paying off the stupid debt.

If Europe had pushed out America and taken responsibility for its future, as De Gaulle wanted, it would be top of the world now.

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THE DECLINE OF THE WEST

26 August 2022

Mearsheimer with his story took us up to when the Russian Bear wrecks its neighbour because it doesn't like being poked in the eye

Example from six years ago

https://youtu.be/JrMiSQAGOS4

From a couple of months back

https://youtu.be/qciVozNtCDM

... but after that? This is what comes next:

The failure of negotiations, the moral defeat of the West, the end of the monopolar world, the re-integration of half of Ukraine into Russia and the half with the industry and resources, the rebuilding of a New Russia, the success of the Russian economy and increase in its GDP, the decline of the West.

The greatest disaster of all American adventures, wreaked on all of us, and that we talked about from day 1.

Which is my worry - bit dramatic maybe - that America would prefer to go down with the planet than to cede its monopoly of power.

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WESTERN GOVTS, ANALYSTS AND MEDIA - HOW PROPAGANDA WORKS

26 August 2022

Simple-minded banalities and prejudice. This is the diet fed to the public through official channels.

In the UK, the ministry of defence MoD publishes daily bulletins on its site, and these talking points are picked up by the mainstream media, which then goes into a little more detail, and this is fed to the British public, which is why so many people who have a diet of only mainstream media have such a restricted and false view of the causes and consequences of this conflict. That is how consent for this war is manufactured.

Today we are being told that while the cost of living in the UK has gone up as a result of this war, the British are paying in money for what the Ukrainians are paying with their blood. The French public, perhaps more honestly, are being told that this is the high tide of Western economic power and the end of the "period of abundance" and "the time for sacrifices" (not however that Western elites will have to shed blood fighting or much face inflation) ie the end of the consumption economy, petrol, electricity, the end of production.

Take a typical example of MSM propaganda.

Mykhailo Podolyak, adviser to the head of the Office of the President of Ukraine, tells Bild in this article what he couldn't argue out with the Russians in negotiations, because Zilensky refuses to negotiate. How far can such simple-minded inanities recounted by him in this article, advance the cause of peace?

What's this about many people not willing to risk returning to Ukraine in the event of a "shaky peace"? They flood back as soon as the new administration is established. It is a fact. Not being too cynical, but probably first of all to check their belongings.

And Zelensky's adviser says investments would also not come to the country. But once Russia has got back "New Russia", it will build-back-better, just like Potemkin did, probably using Donbas' rich skills and resources.

Potemkine is described as "an able administrator, licentious, extravagant, loyal, generous, and magnanimous and the subject of many anecdotes".

As to the Turkish empire and "Khanet de Crimée", in 1776 Potemkin sketched out a plan for the conquest of Crimea and Crimea was peacefully annexed in 1783. 

He was also busy with his Greek project to restore the Byzantine Empire. At least, the Greeks were the first to colonise that area, Troy was on the Bosphorus, and when he built New Russia in the 1780s, many of the cities were given Greek names.

That article again? Hard to believe, yes ... our politicians get dumber and dumber and everything turns around their egos and fortunes. 

But the right thing to do on any dossier in their in-tray is first of all to get a full geo and history briefing from the civil service. Then a good politician would determine where lies the national interest, set goals and strategies at Cabinet, and hand back to the civil service for financing, programming and execution.

But not only is the country trapped by the incompetence, partisanship and greed of its leadership;

 also the govt is not sovereign, independent and free but in hock to American power and technology;

 also we-the-people let them get away with it, they take our freedom, privacy and humanity and trade us Deliveroo and Uber instead. 

No pride.

The worst thing that has come out of this war was when Germany decided to spend its hundred billion on American arms. We should be building an independent Eurasian platform. Europe could so easily beat the States and China hands down, and America knows this.

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INDIA IS IN A GOOD PLACE

India is in a good place! This guy below,  has no need to lecture us on what our past glories meant for the other side of the transaction. On the contrary, we left India with superior governance.

America invited India into its World Order, but India held back. Even though America offeted start-up capital, its home market and guaranteed the supply routes.

But while holding back means India chose to be a laggard, it also means any collapse of the American Order wont worry India - cf China.

India's present woes are its choice, but India is well placed for the future. It is one of only a dozen countries with good demographics (under 40s). It is also geographically ok as it is able to command access to Middle East oil.

Plus if the US is withdrawing into isolation, there'll be no world hegemon, and India is likely to be the Regional Hegemon once China dies off.

And finally, what is this about "condescending"? Does he mean White Supremacy again (yawn). White Superiority is a better word and he feels condescended towards, that would be his justified inferiority complex!

https://youtu.be/Sj_ficQFz1o

Ah, are we talking about white supremacy here? White superiority (better word) is why Indians with their (justified) inferiority complex complained we are "condescending".

And anyway, who is lecturing who here?

Let's take a closer look ... India was the jewel in the empire: we took a lot, yes, we left them a lot as well - a whole new way to govern, not just the railways. Singapore isn't complaining, so why are the Indians?.

After independence, they never really joined the new American Order. It was better than the British in the sense that it provided not only capital to develop their resources further - incl human capital - but also markets for their goods if they wanted; and - and here's the difference - security on the global routes. As well as a universal and convenient currency for transactions and in which to store their savings.

But they hung back from joining (cf China after 1979) and now they blame us for their backwardness! You can see this if you compare the value of imports n exports with GDP - it is 20th in the G20.

He makes some very valid points though. America's disproportionate use of energy. The West outsourcing production and complaining the third world causes global pollution.

But as to forgetting the future and clueing into present needs. India has a great future.. .

If you believe the American Order is falling apart, then India not having joined in the first place means it's ok. Compare with China - if America withdraws, China is in deep trouble.

Demographics is in India's favour. The under-40s in a country are cheap semi-educated, they man the factories and army and fields; and they consume for cars, new families and houses. 

Cf countries who fought in WW2. The soldiers came home, the economy took off, the Great & Silent Generations created the fat and numerous Boomer generation, who created Millenials, a thin generation in number terms. The boomers were the middle class market for China. There are not enough millenials to consume all that can be produced. Nor enough to pick the fields or take care the elderly. 

At age 40+ however, they start saving and tucking away in ever-more-exotic destinations...like third-world govt debt and stock markets and even the Nifty Fifty. Then at age 65, they pull it all back, put it into safe (dollar) home-based assets eg me in value / divi shares for the future; and now we run down our savings on holidays, gadgets, netflix, house renovations and women ha ha.  

India, though, has a fat demographic of young people, it is one of only at most a dozen such countries. So it can produce and being more on its own, it can consume what it produces. Compare this with Europe, Russia and China - all aging fast, especially China.

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THE DIVIDED SELF - THE EXAMPLE OF UKRAINE

The divided self

One good place to start to get an idea of the underlying differences between the people of West and East Ukraine, and this war, could  found in their different ideas of who they are, how they see themselves, and how these differences might be reconciled if that is possible.

To understand this approach, first, try reading my earlier post The United Self.

Roman or Orthodox

Look at who's fighting whom in Ukraine, and if you take out the idea that this is a proxy war between America and Russia, which of course it is, then you are left with looking at a people - the Slavs - who live mainly in eastern and south-eastern Europe and speak variants of the same Indo-European language. 

This group splits into Western and Eastern Slavs, on religious lines, being Roman or Orthodox Christian. 

Then there is the influence of empires : Western Slavs link to the Polish-Lithuainian empire, Germanic peoples this time (Poles, some Ukrainians, Czechs, Slovaks, Serbs), and Eastern (Russians, some Ukrainians, and Belarusians).

And consider the historical animosity between Western Slavs and Russia, dating from WW2 and the Great Patriotic War, where Russia survived and overcame German aggression.

A complication was introduced when Byzantium was taken by the ottomans and is the capital Istanbul of Turkey today Crimea was once part of the Ottoman Empire that was taken back and repopulated by the Russians. (Kruschev gave Crimea to Ukraine in 1953 to try and balance out Russian populations in Russia's favour, but this was a mistake corrected in 2014.)

So after this short recap and with Maiden in 2005 and and the the

Swiss type cantons

Just what this means can get very complicated but I think the idea is that each administrative unit and there would be too in Ukraine I guess each administrative unit starts off as sovereign and then agrees to hand over certain powers to a federal assembly. 

I dont know how a Federation differs from a Confederation; how the Russian side might fit as a modern-day Soviet; I guess there'd be two Constitutions and two assemblies.

Could Minsk be revived as a starting point? After all, it's non-implementation was the immediate cause of the war -  

(As I understand it - and I'm probably a victim of my ignorance - most of us have forgotten, if ever we knew, that Zilenski promised peace justice and anti-corruption but then fell into the hands of the Kiev right wing ("Nazis"), who take their attitude from the time of the Polish-Lithuanian empire and the German war with Russia.

Anyway, a starting point is to list powers that a central authority could be accountable for.

Powers handed over could be: external relations (foreign affairs) &  defence, currency, telecomms, citizenship, civil and criminal law, economic policy, customs duties.

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THE FUTURES OF UKRAINE

25 August 2022

MORE AMERICAN AID

Somewhere - I cannot find the reference - there is a breakdown of the latest 3 billion USD America has promised in arms shipments to Ukraine and three points emerge on analysis: 

1 is that it is just lightweight stuff whereas what Ukraine could really use is aircraft HiMAAS etcetera 

2 the supplies will only last for a short time: 

so for example the 240,000 rounds of ammunition considering that Russia is firing off 60,000 a day and Ukraine about 5,000, so 240,000 would just last a few days

3 delivery is expected over a number of months and years, by which time of course Ukraine will likely have lost the war

PREPARED

More generally, Russia has prepared for this war and has been preparing for years, building up stocks, whereas America hasn't and so simply doesn't have the equipment and supplies that would be necessary to sustain in the long haul of trench warfare.

WAY OUT

Surely the best way out of this situation for America would be for the Republican party to start putting some distance between a new foreign policy and the old foreign policy of the Democrats and then hope for a change at the midterms.

But because the mainstream media has so stuffed its heads and our heads with this propaganda that Ukraine is winning, they cannot at the same time discuss the consequences for America should it lose. And so the worry as I see it is that America will react very badly when its losing becomes plainer and plainet, and may escalate to nuclear rather than accept a further defeat after Afghanistan.

Is there any discussion anywhere of how America might react, once losing becomes plain?

NOT PREPARED

The downside of the American policy elite never listening is that they were never prepared... it seems that they have been prepared for counterinsurgency work, but not for large-scale combat operations LSCO as they are called 

And while Germany is spending 100 billion EUR getting ready for future eventualities, we don't hear any news from America of what it is doing to forestall future LSCO - how, practically, for example, would America cope with a Taiwan invasion?

20 KMS FROM NIKOLAEV

https://youtu.be/WQCGlLmIxsw

Mercouris, Russians 20 km from Nikolaev, offset ~56'

Good summary and forecast.

NEW NEW RUSSIA

The local militias in Donbas are supported (directed) by Russia. In Zaparizhia and Kherson seems it is a Russian effort, no militia.

  I'd imagine that once the Donbas, and the Zaparizhia and Kherson regions, Mykolaiv and Odessa, are overrrun, referenda organised, russified into Russia, then it will all be rebuilt and modernised as needed using local labour and resources, so the future of a modern New Russia looks quite promising.

If America is dragging out this inevitable conclusion, it can only be because they're hoping for some black swan element that would reverse Russian gain, hoping to get past 2024 without loss of face... otherwise if they were rational they would be sitting at the negotiating table.

ZILENSKY'S FUTURE

Zilenski will be sacked at some point by his military, surely, as it's the only way to withdraw. Generals carry out orders, but they are responsible for the lives of their men and women.

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WHO IS ALEXANDER DUGIN?

23 August 2022

Alexander Dugin has been portrayed in the West as the frontman for Russia's deep  (military) state.

Dugin took his cue from a famous Glaswegian, Halford Mackinder.

Mackinder put geography in the driving seat of history, not economics. He created the school of Geopolitics.

He split the world into Europe/Asia/Africa, and America. With inner Asia (the tundran  plains of Russia rolling over the Carpathians into central Europe) as the heartland.

He split the peoples into land powers and sea powers, forever at war. Russia does not invade, it is invaded, being mother earth, by the Atlantic alliance, the sea power, the sky, of GB and now USA. War is our eternal fate!

And politics is inevitably authoritarian for a land power, they stay at home; cf the gregarious trading life of a sea power, naturally Liberal.

That's Mackinder and Dugin.

Mackinder saw Russia as Britain's adversary (this was 1904...Br handed over to the States).

Mackinder's famous sentence, which has resonated down through the decades, to be picked up by Dugin on the 80s:

“Who rules East Europe commands the Heartland; 

Who rules the Heartland commands the World Island; 

Who rules the World Island commands the World.”

So anyway, "bloodthirsty" is journalese - he wanted, wants, the former 14 back in the fold, it's true.

He is big at the Russian Military Academy.

He's a nationalist.

But "Putin's brain"? Noooo.

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NOT SEEING EYE TO EYE - RUSHDIE RUSHED TO HOSPITAL

15 August 2022

What we are talking about here is the freedom of thought, speech and assembly, which is the motor of progress  let's also remember that we are talking about a death threat to a citizen of the US and UK and an attempt at his execution on American soil. Someone ironically, we are also talking about a Salmon Rushdie who is very quick to criticise white society and yet in this situation where his life is threatened ,he seeks the help and support of the very society he criticises.

Salman Rushdie observes that " a new world has been invented to allow the blind to remain blind: islamophobia (a fear of Islam). To criticise the militancy of that religion in its current manifestation is considered fanaticism: a position taken by someone who is in error and not the system of religion itself

"A new word has been coined to allow blind people to stay blind: islamophobia (a fear of Islam). To criticize the militant violence of this religion in its contemporary international incarnation, is considered as being fanaticism, an extreme position taken by a phobic and irrational person. So it is this person who is at fault and not a police system that has claimed over a billion in debt across the world."

As far as I can understand, the reason for the fatwa against him was that he said that religious texts should be open to change: in other words, that you can edit and update the Quran, for example.

Being able to edit the Quran is an example of free speech, a value we in the west hold dear. Free speech is how we make progress because there is always a dialogue, this is the importance of freedom of assembly, sometimes even an internal dialogue between two halves of our own self, and questions are raised by one half and answered by another, and this dialogue raises new questions and new answers are found... and so on. It's a kind of Hegelian dialectic.

It's in this way that we adapt to a changing world and make progress - free speech and assembly from freedom of thought, where the perimeters of our dialogue are only drawn by our vocabulary, our cultural limits ("the box"), and our childhood formatting (The "script" of our life, written for us by early childhood, as observed by Eric Berne amongst many ... if only we could edit *that* script!) We are not limted by a "thought police" or external agent.

Thought police resume the dialogue in to one side that is correct and the other side that is not and they attempt to silence or cancel the incorrect side by the use of terror.

But I cannot at all see why you would need to go in on edit and change the actual words of the prophet or for that matter the words in any of the other sacred texts. They are written in such a way that their truths are general and universal and offer guidance, or cover, any particular circumstance you find yourself in. It is quite easy to refer to the text and interpret it in the light of this situation or that, in a changing world.

In other words, these texts and any great works of literature contain absolute and universal truths that can be quoted and used to understand particular circumstances.

If you were to edit them, or edit Shakespeare for that matter, and make them time- or situation-dependent, then you would take away the universal and absolute nature of their truths - why would you want to do that?

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BOEUF BOURGUIGNON

Jacques Pepin paints

15 August 2022

There is a French quarter here, with quite a number of friendly, inexpensive restaurants. 

This last weekend, the dish of the day at one was "Daube de boeuf" - this is a beef bourguignon or Irish boiled beef and carrots, or Yorkshire stew, but there are intriguing key differences between Fr and Eng cuisine.

With the cubed beef soaked in cooking wine beforehand, salt pepper and rolled in flour before being sealed in hot oil and butter, then simmered with veg including celery (extremely hard to find here, and expensive) with a bunch of herbs - parsley, thyme, bay leaf, even rosemary, tied in a lot. 

Of course, after two or three hours of this, the veg are splattered as if hit by a HiMARS, so add more, and some shallots, and simmer for a further 20 minutes.

Serve with boiled potatoes, dob of butter and sprig of parsley on top.

Bon app' tlm

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