Monday, 31 July 2023

NEW EUROPEANS - SWOT, GOALS, STRATEGY, POLICIES

31 July 2023

PROBLEMS / REQUIREMENTS - FOCUS ON DEINDUSTRIALISATION

De-industrialization is the loss of manufacturing jobs - Trump's rust belt from 80s/90s, Obama's Detroit after the 2008, now Germany's turn from sanctions cutting off cheap Russian energy and raw materials.

Not just sanctions, rising interest rates must also be a factor as Germany is an export-led economy and now its products are more expensive than the competition. Though demand for the Euro from EU trade partners makes the Euro cheaper than would be the Deutschmark. 

To sum up, troubles in manufacturing arise from rising costs: energy and raw materials import prices, interest rates and thirdly not forgetting the Green Deal - however you see the benefits, you have to agree Go Green is way costly.

ECONOMIC - KPIs

It's about the manufacture of finished goods: aviation, cars & parts; chemicals; electrical; machine tools. 

It's measured in GDP and employment. 

It's targets are relative - Germany's and the EU's loss is presumably America's and China's gain as the jobs must go somewhere, even in a recession?

ROOT CAUSES

It is looking like a near permanent loss and that's disastrous for Germany and so for the EU.

The EU is responsible for applying these sanctions, the ECB for monetary policy, and the EU again for the Energy Transition and for Industrial Policy.

Europe is allied to the US, but also aligned to. It has no goals of its own, little real independence. That's what being vassalised means and that's why the UK left - nobody wants to be a dogsbody.

WHAT TO DO?

To return to dynamic growth, the EU could set a goal of having the largest GDP of the three trading blocks by 2043. 

Just planning out the strategic consequences for political independence and for industrial policy would dynamise and invigorate Europe's economies. 

Free Movement of Labour should be delegated to a member-level decision and the UK could be invited to rejoin.

Change on this scale would require replacing the political elite with a younger class of aspiring - can this be done within the confines of late-stage "Liberal democracy"?

Sunday, 30 July 2023

AND IF AMERICA LOSES AGAINST RUSSIA?

30 July 2023

Some risks to pursuing war.

*Losing* is one risk most here this afternoon haven't thought about.

If America loses in Ukraine it's a foregone conclusion that it will lose in Taiwan. Losing against China means it has lost its global supremacy. Many would suggest cancelling the offensive and starting negotiations before it's too late. Means this month or next, if we are lucky.

America losing in Ukraine could be like Britain losing in Suez. At the time, other countries were buying gilts because gilts were the safest of homes for your money. There were four US dollars to the pound before Suez, today it's nearer one. In America's case, how would America continue to meet the interest payments on its gov bonds and avoid a run on the dollar and the RMB going convertible?

*Nuclear war* is another risk noone takes seriously.

It is plain that the West is upping the ante in Ukraine with delivery of ever more sophisticated weapons and technology, because America must not lose. What is to stop an eventual nuclear World War?

*Collapse in civil society* another risk.

We have all this propaganda aimed at getting the consent of our own people, to avoid a collapse in morale and gov.t authority. How to spin a settlement as a victory, pull ourselves together and avoid massive civil strife at home?

Friday, 28 July 2023

TRUMP HEADING TO PRISON FOR THE REST OF HIS NATURAL

28 July 2023

So the charges are piling up and Donald Trump is heading to prison for the rest of his life. I wonder why that could be.

You have to realise that this is supported by almost all members of Congress, both Senate and the House of Representatives and on both sides of the chambers.

What have they got in common? It looks like they all support these mad foreign wars, for reasons we can guess. Whereas before we had been thinking that America was run by the "military-industrial-congressional elite", now we can see that it's true, at least in the case of foreign policy.

And Trump has said - did say, way back in 2016 - that he will put a stop to these wars.

In fact, America today looks much like the Roman Empire of yesteryear. Or Britain under Elizabeth I and later, the one before this American Order. They are a military with a taxpayer funded government attached, who forage the world in search of new countries to plunder.

That is the nature of empires, but civilisations come and go, soon it will be our turn.

AND EUROPE WILL RISE AGAIN

Thursday, 27 July 2023

THE FUTURE OF NATO

27 July 2023

Beyond NATO membership lie the fodder and the enemy.

Europe's turn comes next - it has already started paying the price economically, with the sanctions.
Do you think Western Europe will get involved militarily? Never mind the nuclear, it doesn't have the resources to tackle a resurgent Russia, certainly not now; maybe NATO's eastern fringe would like to have a go?

American put their own boots on the ground? Certainly not! Sure about the nuclear? Not sure.

Someone asked "One more non-negotiable demand for the ceasefire talks -- the Black Sea is to become a Nato lake". I'm sure that is a NATO objective, but would Russia show up to any such talks, or maybe this doesn't matter.

Here is a metaphor for this war. When a tier1 customer orders supplies of a complicated sub-assembly from a first line supplier, it first of all clarifies the requirements and checks the capabilities and capacities of its supplier, before placing the order. 

It doesn't stop there, during execution of the order, the customer purchasing department will make regular audit inspections of the supplier's production facilities.

All this to ensure the timeliness quality and cost of deliveries.

What planning did the Pentagon undertake in its preparations of this offensive with Ukraine's political and military leadership? Can it really only be now that the Pentagon and the National Scurity Council realise that this offensive is being defeated?

To all the evidence, America's planning was woefully insufficient, while Ukraine's execution is a costly failure.

The western powers need to renew our leadership and review the whole way of working, from the goals downwards.

Of course Russia is not without its problems. Take the Prigo affair. Prigo was deeply angered at his Military Headquarters for not supplying him with the munitions he needed to defend his men.

But then you have to understand that the Ministry wanted to keep the Bahkmout "meat grinder" trap open. 

The proof of this is that though Prigo took the town, he had received no instructions to build a defensive post capture line. Indeed if you look at a map, Bahkmout lies east of the defences that the high command had been building since October.

So this dispute was caused by a conflict of objectives and a refusal to accept the strategy of the Ministry. This is what insubordination means. The result is Prigo is in exile (so it is claimed), Ukraine is having another go at Arkiomsk the former Bahkmout and Russia is having to transfer troops from Malinka to defend its latest capture.




Monday, 24 July 2023

THE EFFECT OF TROLLS ON THE OUTCOME OF THE WAR IN UKRAINE

24 July 2023

Just a reflection on the Western Government trolls. 

Propaganda means the things which are to be propagated. It is about information and misinformation, concerning your strengths and weaknesses, what you present and what you hold back.

When you are the defender, you present yourself as strong, fearsome. When you are the attacker, you present yourself as weak, the more easily to slip under the radar, attack and kill.
Now, propaganda is not sloshing about negative or meaningless comments. Propaganda has a purpose: it serves the aims of the war.

What are those aims? For Ukraine, it is about land and borders, also ethnicities. For Russia, it is as stated at the start to “demilitarize” and “de-Nazify” the country.

My point is as always a simple and obvious one. When the trolls talk of Putin's wish to be a dictator, or to conquer new lands, or to re-form the Russian Empire or Soviet Union; when the trolls tell us that Russia is out of weapons, out of men, out of morale; what is the effect of their words?

Who is their audience? Surely not the Curious truth Seeker as their comments are hardly worth reading therefore Their audience must be themselves and those already suffering from russophobia.

All I want to say that it is very strange that in this war Russia does not generate any propaganda, as far as I can see There are open conferences and meetings with journalists that are recorded and no doubt questions are pre-prepared, but other than that Taas is not read by anyone and just generates basic facts.

And why might this be, why is Russia a black hole emitting no "information" to the West? Probably because the trolls here are doing the Russians' work for them. They are painting the Russians as essentially weak, ill-equipped, unprofessional and lacking fibre and morale. And Ukrainians read this and believe this.

That is exactly what the Russians want.

Not only that, but by their inane comments, the trolls present a picture of western publics as foolish and culpable. Imagine the shock and public reaction when confronted with reality. How many politicians and journalists will lose their jobs?

THE TROLLS ARE BATTING FOR THE OTHER SIDE








THE INDONESIAN SPICE ISLANDS

24 July 2023

"This Kashmiri dish is a very famous traditional dish. My friend's kashmiri wife cooked this for us in the 70s and the taste still lingers. We are going to cook this dish this week and thought of sharing it with you all. If u dont have  garam masala use your own garam masala. Zafrani garam masala is not available in Doha but i am getting it fm Kochi this week. But always manage with substitutes."

I do have garam masala. Perhaps not Zafrani, but Bali. 

The best spices come from The Spice Islands,. These are the dozens of tiny rain-soaked forests, luxuriant, verdoyant, volcanic islands on the equator pretty much, that make up the Indonesian archipelago of the Moluccas, aka the Maluku Islands if you prefer. 

Today, you can buy these spices in Dewata and Bintang supermarkets and the very best brand is Nox.


Until the 1700s, all the world's cloves, nutmeg, and mace (which is the powdered skin of the meg nut) came from here, though noone knew this as the Arab traders had kept this secret since the 4th century.

Then came Vasco da Gama on his famous voyage in 1497, round the Cape to India. The Portuguese proceeded to figure out where these Arab spices were coming from.

It is said that local people planted a clove tree each time a child was born, thus through the generations, through practise and custom, man (which includes women) and his destiny were wedded to the forest.

But the Dutch, who eventually took over the Moluccas in the seventeenth century, in order to limit supply and raise wholesale prices, tore down the forests except on Amboina and a few other islands, making cloves worth more than their weight in gold! ... But also making mad the native Polynesians. 

Slowly slowly, the spice was cultivated in other parts of the world - Brazil, the West Indies, Zanzibar ... and today you can buy cloves for your Sunday pork roast with crackling, and your apple pie & custard, in Sainsburys and Tesco.

The British when they colonised converted the people to Christianity, taught them English, introduced them to the latest hot playwright, left behind the rule of law and strict accounting principles. The Dutch by contrast left the people as ignorant as they were when they found them. You have only to compare Singapore or Malaysia with Indonesia....but the latter are fast catching up!

More than that, the Portuguese took great risks in order to discover the Spice Islands and along the way going round the Cape they got lost and found the new world, full of red Indians - Christopher Columbus sailed West across the Atlantic, in fourteen hundred and ninety-two Columbus sailed the ocean blue; and Magellan did the world's first luxury cruise round the entire globe, returning East across the Pacific.

THINGS ARE GETTING HOTTER

24 July 2023

"I am in Doha and getting roasted everyday. Temp was 46C yesterday with govt warning that it could go up to 55C and requesting citizens to avoid exposure to sun between 10 am and 3 pm, avoid keeping gas cylinders outside, avoid gas filling during day time, avoid filling gas full tank etc. First time I see these warnings.

Back home in Kochi it is raining non stop with temp in the 20s."

Yes, climate change is another catastrophe catching up on our past bad behaviour faster than was predicted. We pushed nature into a corner, it came roaring back once with covid, now we really reap the whirlwind with climate change. The world burns while the boys fiddle with their toys in Ukraine. 

How mad is that?

Bali we experienced a week of torrential rain, the water from heaven was falling in chords and sheets. Was it a de-regulated monsoon? Nobody knows, our clocks are still spinning in the hurricane.

Sunday, 23 July 2023

EX COLONIALIST, STILL SUPREMACIST

23 July 2023

I'd suggest we stop mixing up 

  The West with mixed up as The World.

Many Westerners are what's called Western-centric, navel gazers, if you will allow me to draw your attention to something the ego easily misses.

More and more - and thanks to the effects generated by The West on the long-suffering

  Global South 

(what after decolonisation in the 60s may be 70s was called 

  The Third World

), we live increasingly in a 

   The West v. The Rest 

world, it's called 

   Multi-polar 

and America doesn't like it, not one little bit.

Many complain, wrongly, about our colonial past, but we wouldn't want them to complain about our 

   Supremacist 

Present.

====

My own feeling having followed this situation in Ukraine for a long time now is that the West needs to be more honest: hnest with itself; honest with Ukraine too. It needs intellectual honesty and curiosity to discover the truth.

For example - and this is perhaps the worst - we have pushed Ukraine into a war which has destroyed its land and its people on the pretext that they would win, yet we have not provided sufficient or appropriate weapons or training, and they have lost two armies so far.

And the ultimate sadness of this is that it is not at all evident that the people of Ukraine wanted this war in the first place. Remember that they voted for zelinsky because he presented himself as a man of peace

WHO SAYS PUTIN IS A DICTATOR?

23 July 2023

https://youtu.be/u0A2WxgcsFM

DIFFERENCES BETWEEN WESTERN AND CHINESE CULTURES

23 July 2023

What are the major differences between Chinese and Western cultures?

Having lived in Thailand for about 10 years now and in Europe for longer and the Middle East too, I think I’m well qualified to compare Chinese and Western cultures.

The biggest difference I discovered between the two, at a fundamental level, is their priorities. Chinese culture tends to prioritise the result or the end, whereas Western society prioritises the process or the means.

China is Outcome-Driven 

To put it very bluntly, China cares more about money than the West. The ideal outcome that every Chinese person strives for is to have more money. Yes, money is very very central in Chinese culture, which does not have another state religion, because it guarantees security for the family. They have no welfare state to fall back on, or it is rudimentary. Basically, the family takes care of you. And the memories of earlier difficult times are still fresh in the minds of the older generations and transmitted to the young.

This is why it is extremely important in Chinese culture to own your own house, car and iPhone. It shows people that you have wealth, you've arrived, you made it. How you obtain that wealth is not so important or up for discussion, as long as you reach that status or checkmark. Life is brutal and unforgiving. It is a culture where power and money are respected, gets you respect, money and power make influence and are more important than anything else. Not officially violence or military. This is a hard point for softer more genteel minds to understand at a deep level.

The Chinese are also more productive and industrious at the business level. There is less red tape and regulations to deal with, so they get through a lot of work, they produce a lot. Competition is really fierce because everyone is hustling to out-grow and out-compete and out-produce you. The Chinese are incredibly pragmatic and solution-oriented people.

As Chinese culture focuses on results, people tend to be more materially successful in life, though it can seem a purposeless or soulless unadorned existence to a Westerner. They are good at admin, at “obtaining” things like permits, quotas, at meeting deadlines or executing requirements.

The West is System-Driven

While China is an outcome-driven culture, the West is system-driven. The outcome is important, but what’s more important in Western culture is the process and the art, the path you follow and the signs you leave, to reach that outcome.

That is why in the West it’s generally taboo to ask someone how much they earn. What counts is what you do for a living, more than what you earn, at least in polite company.

In business, the Chinese focus on the three Es - economically cutting costs, increasing efficiencies and improving effectiveness. Westerners too of course, we taught them  especially Europeans, will care more about how that product is made and provide valuable experiences with that product.

To illustrate this let’s look at watches. The Quartz watch was perfected by the Japanese, an eastern culture similar to the Chinese. It was revolutionary because it was more precise than mechanical watches. A perfect example of focusing on the outcome. The desired outcome of the watch is to tell the time as accurately as possible at the lowest cost. Japan delivers. However, can a Casio G-Shock watch evoke the same kind of experience and emotion as a Rolex or a Vacheron Constantin can? Probably not. Even though they are less accurate, there’s something special about these mechanical watches in how they are made and the history that a Casio can never compete with.

In western culture feelings or experiences are important while they are suppressed in eastern cultures. Westerners will say things like “how are you feeling today?” “how do you feel about bla bla bla?” etc. This is rare in China. The west has a more literary and artistic output from the west.

Living in Asia I noticed how westerners are just wired differently from East Asians. They will have tons of small talk even at work, talking about the news or some difficulties they encountered on their way to work that day, trivial affairs that are never really the topic of conversation among the Chinese. For the Chinese, they made it to work on time, there’s nothing more to say on the matter.

Since western culture focuses on the how, it is an extremely legalistic or litigious society. In the west, a company must abide by certain regulations or codes. For example, they have to follow specific animal protection laws when making leather products. So generally it’s more costly to get things done in the west. That’s why so many businesses have moved their productions to China where the regulations are lax.

Westerners also tend to be more inquisitive. Science has traditionally been a forte of western culture. And science is really about taking things apart and learning how they work, learning the processes and the mechanics. While westerners are very good at discovering new ideas, the theoretical department, the Chinese are experts at commercializing those ideas and implementing them in a practical setting.

To sum up the global economy today: The west supplies the designs, China implements those designs. Be it iPhones or Shanghai skyscrapers.



Collectivism vs Individualism



The second biggest difference between China and the west is that the former is a collectivist or conformist or traditionalist society, while the latter is an individualistic society.

Confuscionism

China as a whole is much more unified and centralised than the west. The Chinese practice conformity to a truly remarkable extent, largely due to its Confucius past which exemplifies "filial piety" - the arrangement that children obey their parents while parents take care of their children, wives take care of their husbands, and subjects are reverential towards their leaders. We have respect and obedience feeding up and benign care and responsibility feeding down and taking care of our happiness and prosperity. 

To sum up, China practises government for the people and we government of and by the people. In a collective state it is the state that comes first and then the family and the individual whereas we think the opposite way so there is no tradition of democracy as we know it in China.

Conformity

You could be thousands of miles away in a different city in China and still expect to find the same kind of architecture, shops, signage, amenities, etc. There’s both the upside and downside to this. It can be a tad boring to see the same stuff everywhere you go, but it affords a certain level of convenience. This is why I think there is a stronger sense of national identity in China.

Individualism

The West is more individualistic and this is reflected in the political landscape. Europe is a fragmented continent. It is divided into many small countries which are in turn divided into many small regions and towns. And each of these regions and towns has its distinct culture, architecture, customs, and sometimes even languages.

For example, Scotland has its own separate unique identity that is different from England or Europe. And Scotland is a country of only about 5 million people. Many medium-sized cities in China have more people than the entire population of Scotland. The same goes for regions like Wales, Northern Ireland, Cornwall, Andalucia, Catalunya, Bavaria, Veneto, Flanders, etc.

CCP

Is it chopsticks that makes China so very different from the West? I don't think so. We in the West often ask how the people who live in China could put up with a dictatorship and do nothing about it - in my mind, that really is the most important question.

We in the Liberal West think that we are born with natural rights which mean that we can do pretty much as we like provided that we don't step on the rights of other people and if we do and the dispute can't be sorted out then that is why there is a government. 

So we are independent and we are individuals and we only accept to compromise on our rights in order that the government can protect us all. No one is above the rule of law and this includes the rulers and no group has absolute power - power is split between the assembly, composed of Representatives of the people who make the law, the executive who govern and implement change desired by the people, and the judiciary who deal with infringements. The role of the government extends to protecting human rights, assuring freedom of speech and respecting private property.

Compare this with China which had been continuously ruled by and for the Han people since, some say, 2000 BC and it was only in 1911 that the Qing dynasty fell apart and that was because the people realised that they were unable to protect the country from foreigners. 

So for thousands of years the Chinese people had lived under imperial rule and were also dominated by this traditionalist Confucian thinking. Both are hierarchical, top-down ways of thinking and organising.

Humiliation

The Chinese have a deep in their collective psych the notion that Western colonialism and imperialism subjected them to a hundred years of humiliation this started with the opium wars and the Treaty of Nanking in the middle of the 19th century, and ran through to the collapse of the Qing dynasty, after which an attempt was made at creating a republic in 1912 and a constitutional monarchy in 1916. Both failed.

But what China and Chinese people do have is a very nationalist view of China's place in the world and to some extent a resentment at the humiliation they were put through by the West.

CCP

By the time the second world war came, China had no proper system of government to protect itself. But there were two weak parties rivaling each other to take charge the GND and the CCP the Kaoming Tung and the Chinese Communist Party.

 It was almost an accident of history that the CCP came to power in 1949. The CCP was a Marxist-Leninist party and based its philosophy and its organization on Russia's communist set up the CCP believes that the CCP mission is to create a classless egalitarian society, to abolish private property.

In 1949 Mao Tse-tung defeated Chiang Kai Chek and China fell into the hands of the communist party after which foreigners were forced to leave.

https://youtu.be/6StPC4atEVg?si=uTtqRc66HovsfdtV

Thanks for reading






THIS UTTERLY FOOLISH ADVENTURE IN FOREIGN POLICY

23 July 2023

I am waiting for the book to come out, not on the military or political history of the war, but on the role played by our media in keeping us in the dark for so long, the propaganda war of Western gov.ts against their own peoples, the Why? and the How?. Could Noam Chomsky write a farewell jubilatory apocryphal "Manufacture of Consent 2.0"?

You can only fool people for so long. Now, newspapers in the West are starting to publish perspectives on defeat, though it has to be said I am waiting for the blame-articles to start rolling off the presses of this august broadsheet. "Oh, it was the minefields what done for us" will not be enough - why ever did things come to this pretty pass in the first place?

This war looks like it is closing the parenthesis on Western supremacy, Why in the world did we so mismanage and squander our numerous advantages as to get into this mess?

We suffer here and now from the disastrous consequences of these steps to advance Nato and contain Russia, will we seek war with China in the same way? What world are we bequething to our children?

Why has Europe allowed itself to become a mere vassal of America and its violent, uncompromising and opaque foreign policy establishment?

Where was The Voice of the People? What can we do to repair our societies from growing internal conflicts and still remain free?

Good luck everybody sorting out your lives after this utterly foolish adventure in foreign policy.