TRUMP BOMBS TOP THREE IRANIAN NUCLEAR FACILITIES
1. Has Trump Been Played by Israel? Or Is This High-Stakes Theatre?
The United States has now joined Israel in bombing Iranian nuclear sites, a step no previous U.S. president has taken. The question many are asking is: why? Has Trump allowed himself to be manipulated by Tel Aviv? Or is this calculated theatrics to appease allies and protect political capital?
Even from a MAGA vantage point, it’s hard to square recent events with constitutional or international legality, economic rationality, or geopolitical strategy. Can a U.S. president lawfully launch strikes without Congressional approval? Technically yes, under the War Powers Resolution, but only under certain conditions. Many would argue Trump is bypassing constitutional checks, behaving more like a monarch than an elected president.
2. The Oil Barrel Is the Canary in the Coal Mine
A good place to begin understanding this situation is with the price of oil. As of this writing, Brent crude is hovering around $70. But following Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz in response to the U.S.-Israeli strikes, analysts expect prices to surge - potentially reaching $90 to $120 per barrel.
Why does this matter? Because energy is the lifeblood of industrial economies. A jump in oil prices raises production costs, triggers supply chain distortions, and fuels consumer inflation. That in turn leads to wage demands and tighter corporate margins. The classic recipe for a stagflationary spiral.
3. Recession Risk: The Clock is Ticking
A recession is defined as two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth. Higher oil prices alone are enough to threaten this. Consumers cut back. Businesses pull back. And once demand slumps, investment dries up.
Normally, central banks respond by easing policy - cutting interest rates to stimulate borrowing and production. But that’s not so easy this time. The U.S. is approaching the final stages of an 80-year debt supercycle. Government debt now stands at 122% of GDP, and the fiscal deficit is running at 6–7% of GDP. To bridge that gap, Washington must borrow by issuing more Treasury bonds, or print.
4. The End of the Treasury Game?
Traditionally, countries like China have recycled their trade surpluses into U.S. assets: Treasuries, equities, and even real estate. This "vendor financing" model let's call it, kept U.S. interest rates low and asset markets booming.
But if the U.S. economy heads into recession and inflation rises, foreign buyers may accelerate dumping Treasuries, lowering demand for us Treasuries.. Lower demand means lower prices, which means higher yields, and thus a rising cost of debt for Washington.
Meanwhile, credit spreads (the difference between safe government borrowing and risky private-sector lending) are widening. This puts additional pressure on business margins and private investment.
5. The Fiscal Cliff: 20% to Debt, 100% to Welfare...and then some
Right now, 20% of federal tax receipts go to servicing debt, and mandatory welfare programmes consume 100% of all revenue. That leaves nothing for discretionary spending - defence, infrastructure, R&D - unless the government borrows even more.
And now there’s another war. Wars are expensive. Fuel prices surge. Global shipping is threatened. All this as the Fed faces an impossible choice.
6. The Fed’s Impossible Dilemma
The Federal Reserve is cornered:
Raise rates to attract bond investors? That would cool inflation but crash the economy.
Cut rates to avoid recession? That would spur inflation and collapse the dollar.
This war, if prolonged, could break the global economy’s back. The Strait of Hormuz is the choke point for 30% of global seaborne oil (mostly going to Europe incidentally, while America is self-sufficient in energy). A prolonged closure would ignite energy shocks not seen since the 1970s.
7. Is This War Real, or Just Political Theatre?
There’s another possibility: that the U.S. strike was more symbolic than strategic. Trump may have sought to placate Israel and burnish his own image as a defender of Western civilisation, while calculating that Iran’s response would be limited. There are various reports going around that through the usual Swiss back channels, Trump’s administration essentially informed Iran of the strikes, implying that as long as Iran does not respond it will be a ‘one-off’ attack
Early reports show that no radiation has been detected at the bombed nuclear sites. That suggests either the strikes were limited in scope, or perhaps the nuclear material was moved out, possibly to Russia or China. So no-war Trump could be appeasing the neocons in his camp.
If that’s so, there could be.a negotiated de-escalation, Iran reopening the Strait of Hormuz and no further strikes. The world can breathe again until next time....
8. Final Thoughts: The Edge of the Abyss
This crisis may yet pass. But if it doesn’t, if oil remains above $100, if Iran persists or retaliates unpredictably, if America is unwilling or unable to unblock the strait of Hormuz, if the Fed is forced into monetary acrobatics, if the conflict escalates... then we’re staring at a very dangerous convergence: war, recession, fiscal breakdown, currency instability, maybe worse....end of the nuclear proliferation treaty and of credibility the International Atomic Energy Authority, IAEA.... Perhaps iran will finally think about turning to developing a nuclear deterrent.
Trump may claim this is about making America great again. But when markets crash, inflation bites, and allies distance themselves, what exactly is being made great?
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