UKRAINE, THE EU AND THE BROKEN STAIRCASE TO EU MEMBERSHIP.

28 June 2025

Ukraine, the EU, and the Broken Staircase to Europe

1. The Promise That Sparked a Revolution

The 2014 Maidan uprising, known as "EuroMaidan," was driven by a single powerful belief: that Ukraine was on a path toward integration into the European Union. The EU Association Agreement, though technically limited to trade and legal convergence, was interpreted by many Ukrainians as a concrete first step toward eventual EU membership. When then-President Viktor Yanukovych suspended its ratification under pressure, mass protests erupted. The square Maidan filled, the flags waved, and eventually, the government fell. But the European dream remains unfulfilled.

2. A Long-Held Aspiration

While NATO membership was deeply divisive in Ukraine before 2014, EU membership was not. Polls showed consistent majority support for joining the EU. This aspiration was not merely bureaucratic, it was existential. Ukrainians wanted to live in a rule-based society, to travel freely, and to be anchored in a European future. EuroMaidan was as much a cry for dignity and direction as it was about paperwork and trade.

3. Russia's Objection: A Rational Trade Concern

Western narratives often paint Russia’s opposition to Ukraine’s EU Association Agreement as political meddling. But there is a crucial economic dimension that is often ignored.

At the time, Ukraine already had a free trade agreement with Russia under the CIS (Commonwealth of Independent States) framework. If Ukraine also entered into a deep trade agreement with the EU, then European goods could enter Ukraine tariff-free, and from there, be re-exported into Russia—bypassing Russian import restrictions and duties.

In short: Russia risked losing control over its external trade policy, as Ukraine would become a conduit for EU goods. The arrangement would undermine Russian domestic producers while allowing European exporters backdoor access to the Russian market.

Ironically, when the EU and UK negotiated the Northern Ireland Protocol after Brexit, the EU used the exact same argument to protect its single market: that British goods could enter the EU via Northern Ireland unless strict customs controls were implemented. In this light, Russia’s objections to the EU-Ukraine deal appear not only understandable but identical to EU logic - the logic remains the same, but the EU flipped for political reasons.

4. The Conflict Begins

When Yanukovych tried to renegotiate the deal - proposing trilateral talks involving Russia - the EU refused. The EU deemed the Association Agreement non-negotiable and would not change "a single punctuation mark". That refusal - and the pressure it created - triggered the sequence of events that led to regime change (a coup supported by the CIA, according to many independent analysts), Crimea’s annexation, and eventually the war.

Many Ukrainians believed EU membership was within reach. The movement even took the name “EuroMaidan.” Websites, protest art, and banners bore the EU flag. And so when the war began, the hardship was endured under the belief that it was part of the price to “return to Europe.”

5. A Shattering Disillusionment

Now, as Brussels signals cold feet and the possibility of EU entry fades, the emotional toll may be immense. A broken promise on EU membership would not just be a diplomatic setback—it would be a psychological catastrophe for a population that endured immense suffering under the assumption that their sacrifices had meaning.

Yet current opinion polling though sparse and difficult to trust under martial law, suggests that many Ukrainians are exhausted. 72% reportedly support a ceasefire or freezing of the conflict, and only 16% favour continuing the war indefinitely. Enthusiasm for reclaiming all lost territory has waned.

Still, bitterness could erupt if EU membership is formally ruled out. It would signal that the entire Maidan movement - the hundreds of thousands of deaths, the war and devastation of Ukraine's built environment, the economic devastation - was in vain, all in vain. As one commentator noted, Ukrainians followed a staircase labelled "Europe"—and now find it leading nowhere.

6. Conclusion: The Illusion That Fueled the Fire

EU membership was never a guarantee. But it was treated as a moral contract, a shared dream between Ukraine and the EU. If that promise is broken, it may not spark another revolution, but it will deepen the sense of betrayal, trauma, and fatigue, already spreading through a shattered nation.