WHY IS UKRAINE STILL FIGHTING - HASN'T IT LOST THE WAR
Why is Ukraine fighting to the last Ukrainian?
This post explores whether the answer lies not in nationalism alone, but in power: specifically the power that flows from the dollar as reserve currency and the hegemonic status this confers on America.
To have your own currency as global reserve is "the exorbitant privilege", as Valéry Giscard d’Estaing called it back in 1965:
• the world needs your dollars
> you get lower interest rates
• you can run permanent deficits
> import more than you export
> consume more than you produce
> fund it all simply by issuing IOUs (Treasuries)
• you get geopolitical leverage
> freeze / confiscate reserves of others
> cut countries off from finance
> weaponise clearing systems
• Global profits / savings flow into your assets:
> spiking demand for your treasuries, bonds, equities and real estate, pusing up asset values
> keeping U.S. financial markets deeper, more liquid, more stable
> ie American assets structurally bid higher
Reality is, the US taxes the world. It swaps paper, digital entries, IOUs - promises that cost it nothing and that it will never repay - for real goods and services. But it is a poisoned chalice and one that America will one day fight and die for, unless, unless it can negotiate a way out
1. STATEMENTS FROM GERMAN LEADERS
Annalena Baerbock, the previous German Foreign Minister, said, “I will put Ukraine first no matter what my German voters think or how hard their life gets”.
The new German Foreign Minister, Johann Wadephul, said, “Next week Russia either bows… or we enter the war directly. And if it turns into a world war then let it be for Ukraine”.
No surprises, nothing new, expect WW3, and remember what the Americans did to the Japanese in the last one.
2. THE IMPERIAL PATTERN
Every empire has fought to preserve its currency as reserve for trade and save, and to defend its hegemony.
Rome, Spain, the Dutch, Britain.
All died fighting.
But there is still time, still hope.
3. A POSSIBLE BREAK IN THE CYCLE
Despite this historical pattern, something different appears to be happening.
There were five-hour meetings between Trump’s envoy Steve Wytkoff and Vladimir Putin himself; held in parallel with Russia's and China’s foreign ministers, Sergey Lavrov and Wang Yi, as far as I can understand at the same time in Moscow.
This suggests that the three major powers are talking about cooperation rather than confrontation, and incidentally sidelining European governments who maintain their hysteria and self-inflicted decline.
4. A SHIFT IN POWER
Can we say that power is moving, but not along the lines of the old imperial playbook?
There are many posts here on this script describing the phases in the life of any Empire. Perhaps this time will be different and the optimist will be right for a change.
5. A COORDINATED SETTLEMENT
If Washington, Moscow and Beijing are ready to discuss a coordinated security treaty (think Helsinki 1975 that Glenn Diesen who often discusses this) and on economic issues (think Keynes’ bancor), then the old EndOfEmpire phase may be re-written.
Instead of a catastrophic currency-defence war, we could see a negotiated transition to a new global Order.
Europe risks being sidelined by its own dysfunction unless there are honest re-elections this year.
6. A RARE POSSIBILITY
History does not often give empires a peaceful exit.
Western propaganda says Britain handed over peacefully to America, but that is almost completely untrue.
Still, could this moment contain the ever-so-faint possibility of exactly that?
7. WHY UKRAINE FIGHTS TO THE LAST
As to why the Ukrainians will hang on to the end in the face of doom, gloom and total destruction, I am not sure the answers given in the alternative media are enough.
I think the fundamental issue is power, and the power that flows from the dollar as reserve currency, and the hegemonic status this confers on America. And the Western elite triad has through blackmail and bribery - call it soft power if you prefer - bought in the authorities everywhere it sets foot.
