Saturday, 20 December 2025

THE NEW PIVOT OF HISTORY

20 December 2025

1. What People Mean By Russophobia

Russophobia means fear of Russia that is bigger than the evidence.

People often talk about Russia as if it is always trying to conquer Europe. When you look at history carefully, this fear does not fit the facts very well. Russia has certainly been powerful, but power is not the same thing as wanting to rule everyone else. This gap between fear and evidence is the starting point for understanding russophobia.


2. What Britain Was Really Afraid Of

Enabling power means helping someone else become dangerous.

Britain was not mainly afraid that Russia would conquer Europe by itself. The real fear was that Russia might help another country do it. Russia had land, people, and resources. Countries like France and later Germany had organisation, technology, and strong armies, but lacked space and raw materials. The worry was that Russia could provide the weight that allowed a continental power to dominate Europe.


3. Russia And The Centre Of The Map

Pivot of history means the place whose geopolitical position affects everything around it.

This is why Halford Mackinder placed Russia at the centre of his thinking. In his time, Russia sat at the middle of Europe and Asia. Whoever controlled or aligned with this space could change the balance between land power and sea power. Today the centre has moved east, but the idea still helps explain how power shifts.


4. Russia’s Long Memory Of Invasions

Invasion memory means remembering repeated attacks over centuries.

Russia’s history is full of invasions. Mongols came from the east. Poles and Lithuanians came from the west. Sweden invaded twice. Napoleon Bonaparte invaded in 1812 while trying to dominate Europe. Germany invaded twice in the twentieth century. In many cases, it was easy to enter Russia, but extremely hard to stay. Each time, the human cost was huge, especially for Russians.


5. What Russia Did After Winning

Intent means what a country chooses to do when it has power.

After defeating Napoleon, Russia did not try to rule France or Western Europe. Russian armies went home. There was no attempt to build a European empire. Russia seemed satisfied with safety and recognition, not domination. This behaviour matters because it shows limits to Russian ambition.


6. Why Britain’s Fears Kept Growing

Capability fear means worrying about what another country might be planning to do to you.

Over time, Britain worried about many possibilities. Russia might support Germany. Russia might industrialise and become powerful on its own. Russia might spread communism. Russia might block the route to India. Russian railways might strengthen its position as a land power and weaken Britain’s sea power. These were fears about what Russia could become, not what it was actually doing.


7. Expansion And Buffer Zones

Buffer state means land used to create distance from enemies.

Russia did expand into nearby regions such as Poland, the Baltics, the Caucasus, Central Asia, and the ‘stans. These areas touched Russia directly. They created space between Russia and potential invaders. This is different from overseas empires built by Britain or France. The Soviet Union expanded its system, but it did not build a classic colonial empire aimed at Western Europe.


8. Two Insecure Powers

Security dilemma means one side’s defence looks like attack to another.

Britain and Russia were both insecure. Britain feared losing control of the seas and trade. Russia feared being invaded again. When Britain treated Russia as an aggressor, Russia felt threatened and acted defensively. Each side’s actions made the other more nervous. This led to escalation rather than stability.


9. The Modern Result

Unintended consequence means results no one planned.

Trying to isolate Russia has pushed it closer to China. Power has shifted eastwards. Europe has become weaker. The main rival of the United States has become stronger. The old centre of the world has moved from Europe towards Asia.


10. What This Says About Mackinder

Geopolitical legacy means old ideas still shaping new decisions.

Mackinder explained Britain’s fears very well for his time. The problem is not that he was wrong, but that his ideas were treated as permanent rules. When old theories are applied without updating them, they can create the very dangers they were meant to prevent. The mistake is in carrying on with the same old thinking rather than updating and adapting to new experience and revised understanding.


11. Final Thoughts

Escalation means conflicts grow once they begin. Escalation dominance is about one side that can go further leaving the other behind.

History shows that wars tend to grow until someone clearly loses. Empires that lose major wars never recover their old position. This is simply what the historical record shows.

Question for you: has WW3 already begun?




12. Glossary Of Key Terms

Russophobia
Fear of Russia that is stronger than reason or evidence.

Pivot of History
A central place that others move around and whose position affects the distribution of global power.

Buffer State
Land used to create distance from enemies.

Defensive Expansion
Growing borders mainly to improve security.


13. References

Mackinder, H. J., “The Geographical Pivot of History” (1904)
https://www.jstor.org/stable/1775498

Lieven, D., Russia Against Napoleon
https://www.penguin.co.uk

Kaplan, R. D., The Revenge of Geography
https://www.foreignpolicy.com

Jiang Xueqin: Chain Reaction Toward World War III Has Begun

https://youtu.be/P5gG9xXBQZE?si=uZDDAmskGqlINXnM



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