1. Hearing The Drums
We can hear the drums, but we have not yet found the language to admit what we sense: that WW3 has started.
2. How Modern Wars Are Fought
We know that wars these days are fought through small, continuous, irreversible, escalatory steps, as the gloves slowly come off. It is only at the end that you get negotiation, and even then it is about the logistics of withdrawal rather than initial circumstances and intentions, or strategic “root causes”. I guess Europe is hoping that this will be the same with Russia in Ukraine, but it is very confusing to understand why they should think that, as the Europeans have no will to fight, no money, no military... no means; their only hope is American support but America is withdrawing, America cannot help as it is over extended and under focused and anyway has lost much manufacturing to globalisation.
3. The Elite Bet
Europe’s elite is betting on a Russian defeat, economic collapse or withdrawal. They have to, because the costs of their own defeat and withdrawal are greater than the costs of staying, as it is only the Russian threat that is keeping them together. The propaganda therefore needs to be maintained, so that the peoples of Europe see Putin as the cause of their increasing miserisation.
4. Censorship As A Sign Of Fear
We know that our leaders are genuinely worried, from when they cancel people like Jacques Baud, or try to steal the sovereign assets of another country and finally fail even when the money is in their hands, or are busy preparing a 20th package of sanctions that risk backfiring on us again while strengthening Russia. From our vantage point, our leaders' perception of danger seems an overreaction, incomprehensible even, because we cannot see any real threat emanating from Russia. Indeed, it is almost laughable, what are they so afraid of? Russia has spent four years in the Donbas. It seems so pathetic and yet so serious. We blink and ask again, "Why?". In effect, this lack of proportion creates more confusion in the public mind.
5. Legitimate Fears And Illogical Fears
Having said that, we can understand, though not necessarily agree with, the fears of small border states such as Finland, the Baltic countries, and others - the historic record is scary. But the fears of France, Germany, and Britain? That seems completely out of place. This is the confusing thing: why would these big, rich countries want to confront Russia at all? Where is the need coming from? How could Russia take them over anyway? Why would Russia even want to do this when it is largely self-sufficient and occupies a sixth of the surface of our planet as it is?
6. Geography And History
We know that geography is the fixed element of geopolitics, so we look to history to understand the politics of what is happening today. What was the Crimean War really about? Why did Britain and France support a declining Ottoman Empire? Perhaps what we are seeing today is a continuation of old rivalries, but surely the elite can see that the context is now very different. Reality is, it is a multi-polar world. When power is shared, it means negotiation. You cannot simply dictate terms and send in the carrier fleet. Multi-polar has also meant the pivot of history has shifted to the Pacific rim of China.
7. Realpolitik And Mistrust
Is this realpolitik? Politics driven by economics, finance, wealth and money, power and interest, rather than the proclaimed ethics and values we hear about in the press? If so, that is yet another source of confusion and mistrust in the public mind.
8. Spectators In A Growing Tempest
We are spectators in all this, but when we look to the elite we wonder whether they themselves are in control at all, or whether they are merely victims of history and the machinations of their own self interests. Why are they disrespecting their own values and denigrating their own institutions and internationally-agreed rules? So who really is in control? Does our elite in Europe have any agency over events? This is a legitimate question and a deep source of confusion, because it feels as though no one is in charge anymore and we are all being swept along in a mindless, growing tempest towards war. We sense that this is leading somewhere serious, but we do not know why or where. What we do know, from the language and the tempo, is that war is becoming normalised, maybe it's already started. And that is how confusion turns into anxiety.
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