why is America keeping oil prices so high

Still not quite clear how they are manipulating the oil price to max their profits?

.....but trump has been meeting usa oil company execs. Something like usa shale oil is super cheap and tankers are all heading to the usa to fill up. Taking out the russian refineries closes down supply and keeps the price up. Short term max profit??

Here's your mechanism written out long-form.

Trump met the US oil execs in the Oval Office in early 2025 and the message was simple: we'll keep prices high enough for you to profit, you'll keep pumping. "Energy dominance" is the policy. Remember MAGAnomics and Bessent's three plus three plus three - 3% growth 3% inflation 3 million barrels a day more

Here's how the mechanism works:

1. The Gulf crisis (which the US started) has taken 10+ million barrels a day off the market. Price spikes. US shale producers - who need around $60-65/barrel to break even - are now selling at $105. That's a massive margin.

2. The tankers can't get OUT of the Gulf - 230+ are sitting at anchor unable to move. So the flow isn't to the US to fill up, it's more that Gulf oil is trapped and US oil fills the gap for Europe, Asia etc. Same effect, different mechanism.

3. Ukraine hitting Russian refineries simultaneously is not accidental from a US perspective - it keeps Russian supply constrained and prices elevated. Whether coordinated or just convenient, the result is the same.

4. Iran's tolls (paid in crypto/yuan to bypass sanctions) mean even the oil that does move carries a $2m per tanker surcharge - which gets passed on in the delivered price.

So yes - short term max profit is exactly right. The question is whether they can control the unwinding of all this

At $105+ Brent the inflation and recession risk starts to eat into the demand that makes the profit possible. That's the trap.

the people who benefit from high oil prices (US producers, the Treasury via petrodollar recycling, Gulf allies with high budget break-evens) have an interest in prices staying elevated - but not *so* elevated that they trigger the things that destroy the demand that makes the profit possible.

The specific risks at $105+ and rising:

1. Recession kills demand. If oil stays this high long enough, industrial output slows, consumers cut back, airlines ground planes. Goldman already raised US recession probability to 30%. A recession means demand destruction - and demand destruction means the price collapses anyway, but now with a damaged economy underneath it.

2. Inflation forces central bank action. High oil feeds inflation. Inflation forces rate hikes. Rate hikes slow growth. Rate hikes are just not possible with a 40 trillion debt. Same destination, different route.

3. Alternatives accelerate. Every month of $100+ oil is a massive subsidy to EVs, nuclear, LNG substitution, coal switching in Asia. Demand shifts that would have taken a decade get pulled forward by ?two? years. That's permanent demand loss for oil.

4. US allies start breaking. India, Japan, South Korea are being crushed by this. At some point they stop cooperating with the US-led sanctions architecture and make their own deals - which is already happening with India buying Russian and Iranian oil on side channels.

5. So all this means engineering an eventual price normalisation - probably through a deal on the Strait, an Iran settlement, or a carefully timed release of whatever is left of strategic reserves - before the high prices do enough economic damage to destroy the very demand structure the whole play depends on.

The trap is that the longer you stay high, the harder the unwinding becomes