We suspect Iran's intentions, but what are America's and Israel's true intentions?
America is demanding proof of the unprovable. This is not a negotiation about whether Iran may build nuclear weapons. It seems to be about Iranian future intentions, but look beyond the pretense of American suspicion and Israeli high insecurity, to find proof of America's true intentions.
1/ The Impossible Demand
So the U.S. demands that Iran permanently renounce any intention to build nuclear weapons.
Doesn’t this strike you as weird? Iran is being asked to prove its innocence indefinitely… into the eternal future.
It has been inspected by just about everyone, looking everywhere, even behind the coach. America’s own intelligence agency and the IAEA say there is nothing there.
Look at its history. It has never expressed any desire to build a bomb. Even when Saddam Hussein was hurling chemical weapons against it for six years, Iran did not retaliate in kind.
Plus, it signed the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and, for what it’s worth, there is a religious ruling, a fatwa, against nuclear weapons.
So compliance does not end suspicion.
Here's the weird part. Iran is being asked to prove that it will never have the intention of building a bomb. How can it prove that? How can anyone provide evidence in the real world for something that does not exist?
America is effectively asking for proof of what Iran will never think about doing.
It’s like the police asking you to prove that you will never think about murdering your wife.
Or you go to your mortgage broker, show your accounts, your income, your history, and the broker says:
“We will only give you a mortgage if you can prove that you will never think about defaulting on the loan… not today, not in ten years, not even in a moment of stress.”
So we end up in a position of permanent ambiguity and suspicion. The conflict can continue indefinitely or - now here’s the thing - until America finally gets control of Iran’s resources.
2/ Composition Of The Negotiating Parties
Iran sent its minister of foreign affairs and a team of skilled negotiators. They arrived with a short list of unambiguous demands and a well prepared agenda.
But hey look who we have on the American side, who accompanied J.D. Vance? His team or his minders? Why was he accompanied by a couple of Israeli agents?
So the demand that Iran prove the unprovable appears political rather than logical. And in demanding proof of the non-existence of a future intention, it reveals not just suspicion and high anxiety butt points to a pattern of American intervention in its foreign policy since the last world war.
3/ A Pattern Of American Interventionism
Across modern history, particularly since the mid-20th century, a consistent pattern emerges. A foreign leader is portrayed as a threat - brutal, unstable, or dangerous - and the situation is framed as a moral crisis requiring intervention. Action is justified in the language of values of democracy, human rights and security.
Yet, despite these stated aims, the outcomes always seem to converge: weakened states, fractured societies, prolonged instability, and far removed from the original promises of liberation or protection.
4/ The Usual Imperial Pattern of Expansion, Debt, And Collapse
This behaviour is not uniquely American but characteristic of empires across history, from the Roman Empire expansion to the British Empire expansion. Empires by definition are expansionist, they have to continuously expand to secure resources and sustain and this expansion must increasingly be financed by rising debt. Over time, currencies are debased to manage that debt, while further expansion becomes necessary to access new collateral to back the debt with the Imperial bankers and maintain the system.
Eventually, the model reaches its limits: debt burdens become unsustainable, expansion stalls, confidence in the currency weakens, and the imperial structure begins to fragment or collapse.
5/ Conclusion
So applying the pattern found in history to Iran, the current U.S. intervention in Iran looks less like an isolated response to events and more like the latest iteration of a familiar cycle.
The conflict has been framed in terms of security, nuclear risk, human rights, democracy and liberation of the people, yet the operational reality centres on strategic control of resources, particularly of energy flows and the Strait of Hormuz, through 20% of global oil supply, a third of LNG, the precursors of fertilizer... passes.
Recent military actions, including devastating strikes on infrastructure, efforts to reopen the strait, I failed attempt to seize the enriched uranium, point to the centrality of these economic and logistical factors.
So in conclusion is unfolding is not simply about Iran itself, but about maintaining a broader system under strain. A debt-heavy, resource-dependent economic order requires stability in flows and continued access to critical assets. When those flows are threatened, intervention becomes more likely, and the familiar narrative of values is deployed to secure public support for what is essentially an illegitimate project. Whether intentional or structural, the pattern holds: strategic necessity drives action, narrative legitimises it, and the long-term consequences remain uncertain but, if history is any guide, unlikely to match the stated aims, nor the expectations of the aggressors.
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