26 June 2026
EPISODE ZERO • CHAPTER ONE
Continental and Maritime Powers
LECTURE ONE
Introducing Sarah Paine and the Geography of Power
Overview
Why do some great powers seek territory while others seek trade? Why do some build vast armies, while others rely on powerful navies and alliances? According to military historian Sarah Paine, the answers begin not with ideology but with geography. This opening chapter introduces one of the most influential modern frameworks for understanding geopolitics and explains why the distinction between continental and maritime powers remains central to today's rivalry between the United States, China and Russia.
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1. Introduction
The world is often interpreted through the lens of political ideology. Democracies confront dictatorships. Capitalism competes with socialism. Liberalism challenges authoritarianism.
Professor Sarah C. M. Paine argues that these explanations, while important, are incomplete.
A deeper force has shaped international politics for thousands of years.
That force is geography.
Mountains, rivers, coastlines, oceans, deserts and navigable waterways impose constraints that no government can simply legislate away. Geography influences how states defend themselves, generate wealth, organise their economies and interact with neighbouring powers.
This perspective belongs to the discipline known as geopolitics.
In this series we examine one of Professor Paine's central arguments: that history is best understood as an interaction between two fundamentally different strategic worlds.
One is the continental world.
The other is the maritime world.
Their different geographical circumstances produce very different methods of exercising power.
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2. Who is Sarah Paine?
Sarah C. M. Paine is Professor of History and Grand Strategy at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT).
She previously spent more than two decades teaching strategy and military history at the United States Naval War College, where she specialised in naval strategy, modern Asian history and international security.
Her research combines military history, economics, diplomacy and geography into a unified explanation of international competition.
Unlike many commentators who focus on daily political events, Paine examines the structural forces that operate over centuries rather than election cycles.
This long-term perspective makes her work particularly valuable when analysing contemporary competition between the United States, China and Russia.
Although many of her conclusions invite debate, they are firmly grounded in historical evidence and the study of strategic decision-making.
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Glossary
Geopolitics – The study of how geography influences political power, security and international relations.
Grand Strategy – The long-term coordination of all instruments of national power, including diplomacy, military capability, finance, trade, technology and alliances, in pursuit of national objectives.
Strategic culture – The historical habits and assumptions that influence how nations think about security and power.
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3. Geography Shapes Strategy
Professor Paine begins with a deceptively simple observation. Most countries throughout history have been continental powers.
Only a small number have possessed the geographical advantages needed to become true maritime powers.
This distinction matters enormously. A continental state must defend long land borders against neighbouring armies. A maritime state, protected by surrounding seas, can often rely primarily upon naval power for its security.
These contrasting circumstances shape every aspect of national policy.
• Military doctrine.
• Economic development.
• Diplomatic priorities.
• Alliance formation.
• Even political institutions & their rules.
Paine therefore argues that geography often influences strategy long before political leaders make conscious choices.
History does not become inevitable. But geography defines the menu from which governments choose.
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Glossary
Continental power – A state whose security depends primarily upon defending extensive land borders.
Maritime power – A state whose security and prosperity depend primarily upon naval power, overseas commerce and access to the sea.
Sea power – The ability of a nation to use the oceans for defence, commerce and strategic influence.
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4. Why This Distinction Matters Today
The debate between continental and maritime strategy did not end with the Second World War... It continues to shape many of today's geopolitical flashpoints.
Russia remains primarily a continental power whose security thinking is dominated by land frontiers and buffer zones.
China combines elements of both traditions. Historically it developed as a continental civilisation, yet its extraordinary economic success since the late twentieth century has depended upon maritime trade.
The United States, the United Kingdom and several other allied nations remain predominantly maritime powers whose prosperity depends upon secure global sea lanes, open markets and international alliances.
Whether one accepts Professor Paine's conclusions entirely or not, her framework provides a powerful lens through which to understand contemporary strategic competition.
Throughout this series we shall examine both the strengths and the limitations of her argument.
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Glossary
Buffer zone – A territory separating rival powers in order to reduce the likelihood of direct conflict.
Sea lane – A major maritime route used for international shipping and naval operations.
Alliance – A formal or informal partnership between states for mutual security or common strategic objectives.
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5. Looking Ahead
This chapter provides the foundation for the lectures to follow.
The next chapter will introduce the intellectual pioneers whose ideas shaped modern geopolitics.
These include:
• Sun Tzu and the strategic traditions of continental Asia.
• Alfred Thayer Mahan and the theory of sea power.
• Sir Halford Mackinder and the Heartland Theory.
• Nicholas Spykman and the Rimland Theory.
Together they developed many of the concepts that continue to influence strategic thinking in Washington, Beijing, Moscow and other capitals today.
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Conclusion
Professor Sarah Paine encourages us to view world politics through a much longer historical lens.
Her central proposition is simple but profound.
States do not merely choose strategies.
Their geography strongly influences which strategies are available.
Understanding this distinction between continental and maritime power provides one of the most useful foundations for analysing international relations in the twenty-first century.
The remaining chapters will explore this argument in greater depth and examine where it succeeds, where it is contested and how it helps explain today's increasingly competitive international order.
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References
Paine, Sarah C. M. The Strategy of Strategy: Rethinking War and Peace.
Paine, Sarah C. M. Lecture series on Geopolitics and Grand Strategy, Massachusetts Institute of Technology.
Mahan, Alfred Thayer. The Influence of Sea Power upon History (1890).
Mackinder, Halford J. The Geographical Pivot of History (1904).
Spykman, Nicholas. The Geography of the Peace (1944).
