Sunday, 26 September 2021

WOULD THE PEOPLE OF NORTHERN IRELAND VOTE TO STAY IN THE UNION?

Cape 25 Sep 2021
Of the 18 MPs elected in 2019 in Northern Ireland to the UK Parliament, 9 nine are Irish Nationalists, 8 eight are Unionist and 1 one is unaligned.

7 Seven of the Nationalists won't take up their seats at Westminster as they don't acknowledge the legitimacy of British rule.

All 5 five of the border constituencies returned Irish Nationalist MPs. 3 Three of the 4 four Belfast constituencies elected Irish Nationalists.

But is the union is on the way out?

Those 9 nine nationalist MPs got 37.7% of the vote and the 8 eight unionists 42.3%. With the unaligned with 16.8%, reckon 65% of their supporters would vote to stay in the U.K. and even 9% of Sinn Fein Fein voters and 35% of SDLP voters would vote to remain in the U.K. i.e. there has been no change in the percentage of NI voters who would opt for a united Ireland in the past 40 years. 

Seems it's not going to happen anytime soon.


Friday, 24 September 2021

THAILAND : IDEAL ENTRY REQUIREMENTS

1. Lateral flow is sufficient for fully vaccinated visitors. Why? Testing is not really needed once the population is vaccinated, but until then a pre-flight LFT is sufficient.

2. No quarantine for fully vaccinated. Why? Because any positives are eliminated at pre-flight test.

3. No covid insurance. Why? They are never hospitalised for covid (if comorbidities, it can be a different story).

4. Many changes can be made to simplify the permission to stay.

5. A credible plan to restore and enhance the tourist sector, "build back better" applies to infrastructure and staff.

Monday, 20 September 2021

STOCK MARKETS MELTING?

Yes, there's 

1. this Chinese property collapse 300billion$ 
- lots of Chinese bought off-plan and will be really angry, 
-then there's the supply chain all those companies working for Evergrande who could go bust,
-then there's all the debt and interest that banks might not get back so they won't have money to lend (this is called a "credit crunch") and so many companies will not be able to borrow, no start up, no grow.
Will the Chinese govt step in? They've said no in general, but ...who knows? 
-Pull any investments in China.

2. an energy crisis - the UK govt may help peoole pay a hugely inflated gas bill

3.  Fed tapering of the 160b they buy in the bond markets every month

4. A rate Fed interest rate hike next year and 

5. inflationary pressures are they temporary or are they building?

But we are so very conditioned to "buy on the dips" that maybe this will be jyst another opportunity....

Sunday, 19 September 2021

AUKUS. THIS IS THE DEAL AND THE FRENCH ARE TOAST

Of course the French reaction can be the result of jealousy: fear of loss. Except here, the loss has materialised. 

In fact, we see the authentic hurt pride of the French: they thought they had something to be proud of, but their subs were rejected. And we see the hubristic hurt pride of Macron: his sense of his self-importance is punctured.

Reality is, the Astralians asked for nuclear subs from the UK and US because the French subs were not up to the mark: the requirement is for a force to counter the rise of China. The French could not be let in on the change of plan and only learnt what was going on when they read the newspapers. This is normal as they could not be trusted with this information any earlier.

The French hurt is understandable. As is the UK's relishing this plate of cold revenge for French continual nuisance tactics over Brexit.

We can expect retaliation and some sulking too from the French. Also attemps to console her from the Americans. Macron has met his Waterloo.

The real importance should not be lost in this moment of high drama. This is the moment the fight-back against the Rise of China truly began. We do not imagine it will concern only submarines! It is a new military alliance with a common enemy: China. Further members may be added: Japan, India, Malaysia, Taiwan...

Nato will need reform. The inclusion of Russia could be contemplated on strategic grounds, given its growing closeness to China.

This alliance could also mature into a new free trade area, and one the EU could in time apply to join, offering hope for the survival of their own free trade area, the Single Market and Customs Union.

OUR FREEDOMS

In case we forget, our freedoms are longstanding and many, notably 
freedom from false arrest
the right to an unbiased jury trial in serious cases
freedom of speech, the press and media
freedom of religious worship or to dissent
freedom to give the government the boot every 4-5 years, Brexit as reassuring proof of that even when the establishment spent four years opposing the popular vote and the losers leave with good grace, and do not call in the military to overturn a democratically determined result.  

FRENCH SUBS, WOUNDED PRIDE

 The French reaction is one of wounded pride. 

It could be that they thought they had something of worth (the subs), but no, the subs were found to be inadequate, not up to the mark. That would be an authentic pride, wounded.

But it could a hubristic pride. This would be from narcissistic arrogance and self-importance (a known French character weakness) which often precedes disaster.

After all, it has been well known for the last six to 12 months that the order would be cancelled. The wait was while a more suitable product could be found. AUKUS was the moment.

Justified pride is from one's accomplishments. But the French reduced the spec, lengthened delivery time and almost doubled the cost. Of a product that became dated. Where they could have upgraded to nuclear and made realistic commitments.

So, was it wounded authentic pride? Or wounded hubristic pride? And how to stop the French retaliating or going into a big sulk? After all, they are an important member of the club of democracies; and we all have weaknesses and make mistakes.

19 September 2021

Australia canned the contract legally and pay a compensation.

The diesel subs are no longer fit for purpose.

More broadly, something has to be done about China and this is the start.

The French suffer from wounded pride - they thought they had a world class product, source of national pride, they don't. Their narcissistic, self-important leader takes it as a personal affront.

The French are excluded, presumably because cannot be trusted, but something will be done to dress up that wounded pride.

After all, they are a G7 democracy and  with Germany, lead the EU.

My advice would be for the French to consider their place and role on the global stage, what their best long-term loyalties demand of them, and be sure to pay their way in future, and be serious humble and respectful and not snap at the heels of the leadership for reasons related to ego.

20 Sep


Tuesday, 14 September 2021

IS IT TIME TO REFORM DEMOCRACY?

Actually, it is time to requalify voters. Democracy is broke.

Try : property owners, over 26 years of age, under 26 BMI.


14 Sep 2021 

THE ROLE OF THE FATHER (IT IS SELFLESS & GIVING)

You can say that God has given us each a role or roles, as well as special gifts, to use for the benefit of others.

Now you mentioned the Greek myths. They teach us the importance of bravery, intelligence, and tell us about right and wrong. They show that we can be rewarded or punished for our good actions or our missteps.

You also mentioned "love". The father loves his wife and his children. But love is not so much a condition (I am loved by my father, I love you), it is an action. I lavish you with love. I do things for you. Not for me, but for you and for us.

And if the father loves, he can expect to receive respect and admiration, for his actions.

That is how it works. The wheel of love goes one way from father to wife and children; and back comes respect, admiration, awe, maybe a little fear.

And remember that this is all happening now, in the real world, in real time. It is not so much a promise about à theoretical future - that a man who lavishes love on his family will be praised and respected - it is something the father must catch up with, and do right away, starting from now.

For me, things get a bit dangerous because as part of this paradigm, when the father loves his wife, she, in return, must obey him. Love demands obedience. No! It is not a hierarchy or pyramid like that!!! It is a circle. Love and respect flow both ways, these days.

14 September 2021

CHIANG MAI BACK IN WORLD'S TOP TEN HOLIDAY DESTINATIONS

https://www.tatnews.org/2021/09/worlds-best-awards-2021-names-bangkok-and-chiang-mai-among-the-globes-top-10-destinations/

Bangkok and Chiang Mai both featured in the top 10 of the World’s Best Cities category, with Chiang Mai in 9th spot with a score of 90.06 and Bangkok in 10th with a score of 89.81.

Ko Samui secured 2nd place in the Top 5 Islands in Asia category with a score of 90.34, and also came in at 7th in the Top 25 Islands in the World category.

Four Bangkok hotels made their way into the Top 100 Hotels in the World category, with Capella Bangkok situated on the east bank of the Chao Phraya River occupying 4th place on the list with a score of 99.38.

Mandarin Oriental, Bangkok came in at 41st with a score of 97.87, tied with Katikies Mykonos in Greece’s Mykonos, The Lanesborough in London, and The Roundtree, Amagansett in New York. The Four Seasons Hotel Bangkok at Chao Phraya River earned 55th place with a score of 97.59, and The Sukhothai Bangkok was named in 73rd with a score of 97.25.

The Mandarin Oriental, Bangkok also received a Hall of Fame designation, indicating it had been voted into the Top 100 Hotels in the World list for the past 10 consecutive years.

The World’s Best Awards is based on an annual reader survey, and for the 2021 edition voting was carried out from 11 January-10 May, 2021. 

There are categories for airlines, airports, car rental, cities, cruise ships, destination spas, hotels, hotel brands, islands, tour operators and safari outfitters, and national parks in the USA.


See also:

Thailand Trusted Report EP 28: City of Clean Air

Thailand moves further up the ‘Best Countries Heritage’ top 10 rankings

THE NEED FOR FURTHER REFORM OF THE NHS

Many of us remember the restructuring that created a new body, NHS England, to run the health service, set up new regulators, to replace primary care trusts with clinical commissioning groups (CCGs) led by GPS, to organise local services, and which handed responsibility for citizens' healthy lifestyles  over to the town halls. 

Then in 2015, health visitors moved into local government as well, to complete the transfer of public health from the NHS to local authorities.

That was the change program legislated for in 2012 and implemented over four years to 2016.

 

 The vision was of a health service fit for the 21st Century. The key belief behind these root and branch changes was that greater competition in the NHS would make it more efficient and responsive. 

 But by 2019, competition as a driver of improvement was being rethought. The NHS' Long Term Plan argued that cooperation was now key. We needed a joined-up NHS.

Thus was born the integrated care systems (ICSs), created over the next two years, to 2021. An Integrated Care System. ICS is - as the name suggests - a partnership bringing together hospitals, CCGs (the GP-led clinical commissioning groups that organise local services), local authority community services, and the charities, to all work together. 

For example, after a fall, an elderly person might be hospitalised; then on leaving hospital there will be a four or six week program of home care organised by the LA social services; possibly physio; and a charity might be requested to provide some social life until the person can out and back into the community.

 This integration is necessary because an ageing population requires multiple different and coordinated services to work together, sharing staff, skills and records. Such are the complications brought on by aging compared to simple health issues faced by youth. 

 Evidently, the initial funding provided is no longer sufficient.

 The job now is to further join up and share the back office support services across regions and with office automation making managers more productive, many senior and middle positions can be "cancelled" for real.


And when we remember back to the beginning of the NHS after the last war. It was originally thought that once everyone was through the new cattle dip, once everyone's health had been fixed, there'd be little need for an NHS. It would all just be low-maintenance.

Little had we imagined how the demographics would change; nor could we conceive of the advances in medical science and possibilities for re-engineering the human body.

End

14 Sep 2021

Sunday, 12 September 2021

BORIS, THE WACAMOLE POLITICIAN

Boris is a wacamole politician. No strategy, all expediency and tactics.

"There, that'll sort you out once and for all. Now don't come back and annoy us again."

"Next please!".


The same collectivist policies are being applied across democracies worldwide. It is not just "Bunter", as people here like to call him, it's everywhere. 

The problem is somewhere halfway between democracy and Liberal internationalism, with the power hungry never letting a good crisis go to waste to grab some more, and an abscence of alternative leadership.

But voters get what they vote for - and on my reckoning so far, Boris Bunter will be back after the next election.

Maybe if the vote could be restricted to property owners aged over 25 with BMIs under 25.


 What is the attraction of collectivism to a Conservative? None, you'd think.

Yet here is the state encroaching again, as it always does after a crisis, taking away another big chunk of family and personal responsibility ; and asking people to pay in higher taxes and loss of freedom.

Maybe it's a cover to pay for Brexit?

.End

12 Sep 2021