26 June 2026
EPISODE ZERO • CHAPTER ONE
The Foundations of Geopolitics - Sarah Paine
LECTURE TWO
Thinkers Who Changed How Strategists View The World
Why do some nations become global powers while others remain trapped by geography? Is power determined by armies, navies, trade, or simply where a country happens to sit on the map?
Thinkers who changed how geopolitical strategists changed the world - intro
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Why It Matters
Understanding today's rivalry between China, Russia and the United States begins long before the twentieth century. Four influential strategists—Sun Tzu, Alfred Thayer Mahan, Halford Mackinder and Nicholas Spykman—developed ideas that still shape military planning and foreign policy today. Although writing in different centuries, each attempted to answer the same enduring question:
"What determines the rise, security and survival of great powers?"
Their answers continue to influence debates over Ukraine, Taiwan, NATO, maritime security and the future balance of power.
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Overview
Before analysing today's rivalry between China, Russia and the United States, it is worth meeting the strategic thinkers whose ideas continue to influence policymakers. Although separated by centuries, Sun Tzu, Alfred Thayer Mahan, Halford Mackinder and Nicholas Spykman all sought to answer the same question:
What determines the rise and survival of great powers?
Contents cover the following:
• Why geography remains one of the most enduring influences on international politics.
• Why Sun Tzu's ideas reflected the realities of continental warfare.
• How Mahan transformed strategic thinking by placing sea power and commerce at its centre.
• Why Mackinder believed control of Eurasia's Heartland could determine global dominance.
• How Spykman challenged Mackinder by arguing that the Rimland mattered more than the interior.
• Why Sarah Paine combines these theories into a single framework for understanding modern geopolitics.
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1. The Search for Enduring Principles
Military technology changes constantly. Empires rise and fall. Political ideologies come and go. Yet one factor changes very little. Geography.
Mountain ranges, navigable rivers, deserts, fertile plains and oceans continue to influence the choices available to every nation. Sarah Paine points out that the most successful strategists recognised this long before the modern age.
Rather than treating history as a sequence of isolated wars, they searched for recurring patterns that explain why some states prosper while others decline.
- Sun Tzu
- Mahan, Alfred Thayer
- Mackinder, Halford J
- Spykman, Nicholas
Their ideas still shape strategic thinking today.
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Glossary
Strategy – The long-term plan for achieving political objectives by coordinating military, diplomatic, economic and other national resources.
Geography – The physical features of the Earth that influence human settlement, trade, defence and political power.
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2. Sun Tzu: The Continental World
Writing around the fifth century BC during China's turbulent Warring States period, Sun Tzu produced one of history's most influential works on strategy: The Art of War.
His world was entirely continental. Power depended upon armies. Threats came from neighbouring kingdoms. Territory and frontiers determined security.
Sea power hardly featured because maritime commerce played little role in China's political system at that time. Sun Tzu therefore concentrated on intelligence, deception, logistics, alliances and defeating opponents as efficiently as possible.
His famous principle that "the supreme art of war is to subdue the enemy without fighting" reflects the reality that prolonged continental warfare imposed enormous costs upon rulers.
The Industrial Revolution fundamentally altered the relationship between geography and power. Steamships, global trade and industrial production shifted attention from land frontiers towards the oceans
Sarah Paine argues that Sun Tzu's strategic assumptions reflected the geography of ancient China rather than universal military principles.
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Glossary
Continental strategy – A security approach centred upon defending or expanding territory through land power.
Logistics – The movement and supply of military forces.
Deception – Deliberately misleading an opponent to gain strategic advantage. Eg "When you are near, make the enemy believe you are far away; when you are far away, make him believe you are near."
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3. Alfred Thayer Mahan: The Sea Changes Everything
By the late nineteenth century, American naval officer Alfred Thayer Mahan observed that Britain's global influence rested less upon territorial conquest than upon commerce.
Published in 1890, The Influence of Sea Power upon History argued that wealth generated through maritime trade could finance powerful navies, global influence and long-term national prosperity.
According to Alfred Thayer Mahan, successful maritime powers required several conditions.
- An accessible coastline
- Secure access to the oceans
- Strong commercial ports
- Reliable political institutions
- A thriving merchant fleet
- A navy capable of protecting trade.
His ideas profoundly influenced naval planning in Britain, Germany, Japan and the United States.
Many historians regard Mahan as the intellectual architect of modern naval strategy.
Yet sea power did not eliminate geography. Instead, it encouraged scholars to ask whether control of the Eurasian landmass might ultimately outweigh maritime dominance.
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Glossary
Merchant fleet – Commercial ships that transport goods between countries.
Sea power – The ability to project national influence through maritime commerce and naval strength.
Maritime commerce – International trade conducted by sea.
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4. Halford Mackinder: The Heartland
In 1904, British geographer Sir Halford Mackinder proposed one of geopolitics' most famous theories.
He argued that the vast interior of Eurasia formed the world's strategic "Heartland".
According to Halford Mackinder, successful continental powers required several conditions.
• A large, defensible landmass.
• Secure interior lines of communication.
• Extensive natural resources.
• A substantial population and industrial base.
• Efficient railways and internal transport.
• Armed forces capable of controlling the Heartland and resisting maritime encirclement.
Protected by mountains, deserts and immense distances, the heartland region was difficult for maritime powers to penetrate. And then, railways began transforming transport across Eurasia, strengthened this advantage by allowing continental powers to move armies internally without relying upon vulnerable sea routes.
Mackinder feared that if one great power united the Heartland (we think of Germany for technology and production, Russia for resources), it could eventually dominate Eurasia and potentially challenge the maritime world.
Although later criticised and modified, Heartland Theory became enormously influential during both World Wars and the Cold War.
Spykman - next - admired Mackinder's geographical insight but believed he had identified the wrong strategic prize.
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Glossary
Heartland – Mackinder's term for the central landmass of Eurasia, regarded as the strategic core of continental power.
Interior lines – Internal transport routes allowing armies to move efficiently within their own territory.
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5. Nicholas Spykman: The Importance of the Rimland
Dutch-born American scholar Nicholas Spykman accepted much of Mackinder's analysis but reached a different conclusion. Writing during the Second World War, he argued that control of Eurasia's coastal regions mattered more than control of its interior.
Spykman never produced a neat checklist like Mahan, but his writings imply one. According to Nicholas Spykman, successful Rimland powers required several conditions.
• Control of the coastal rim surrounding Eurasia.
• Strong alliances with neighbouring maritime and continental states.
• Secure access to both land and sea communications.
• Industrial and economic strength concentrated in the coastal belt.
• Armed forces capable of preventing any single power from dominating Eurasia.
• The ability to maintain a favourable balance of power rather than seeking absolute dominance.
Unlike Mackinder, Spykman argued that controlling the Heartland alone was insufficient. The decisive strategic prize was the Rimland ie the densely populated coastal belt containing most of the world's population, industry, ports and trade routes. Whoever prevented any one power from dominating the Rimland would shape the global balance of power.
Many historians regard Spykman as one of the principal intellectual architects of the American strategy of containment during the Cold War and of the broader policy of preventing the emergence of a regional hegemon in Eurasia.
And so we have a pleasing progression through our four thinkers:
• Sun Tzu – Win through superior strategy, deception and understanding the enemy.
• Mahan – Command the seas to protect commerce and project power.
• Mackinder – Control the Heartland to dominate the World-Island.
• Spykman – Control the Rimland to prevent any rival from dominating Eurasia.
He called these coastal zones the Rimland. These included Western Europe, the Middle East, South Asia and East Asia. The Rimland contains most of the world's population, industry, ports and economic activity.
For Spykman, preventing any hostile power from dominating these regions became the central objective of American grand strategy.
Many historians see clear echoes of Spykman's thinking in NATO, America's alliance network in East Asia and its continuing emphasis on freedom of navigation.
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Glossary
Rimland – The densely populated coastal belt surrounding Eurasia.
Freedom of navigation – The principle that ships may move lawfully through international waters without interference.
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6. Four Thinkers, One Conversation
A useful way to understand these four thinkers is to see them as successive contributors - as above - to a single strategic conversation spanning more than two millennia. Each asked the same fundamental question: How can a state survive, prosper and remain secure in a dangerous world?
Their answers reflected the changing realities of their own eras.
- Sun Tzu land warfare examined survival through the effective use of land armies
- Mahan sea power argued that naval power and maritime commerce were the foundations of national greatness;
- Mackinder continental geography contended that control of Eurasia's continental Heartland conferred strategic advantage; and
- Spykman coastal margins responded that it was the surrounding Rimland - the populous coastal belt - that ultimately determined global power.
Together, their ideas form one of the intellectual foundations of modern geopolitics and grand strategy.
Sarah Paine argues that these thinkers should not be viewed as rivals competing to produce a single 'correct' geopolitical theory. Rather, each describes one dimension of strategy.
- Sun Tzu explains how states compete on land
- Mahan explains how maritime commerce generates wealth and naval power
- Mackinder explains the strategic significance of Eurasia's interior
- Spykman explains why the coastal margins of Eurasia remain the principal arena of global competition.
Together they provide a four-perspective framework that modern strategists draw upon, depending upon the circumstances.
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Conclusion
No single geopolitical theory explains every historical event. Technology, economics, culture and political leadership all matter. Geography does not dictate history, but it sets the stage upon which history unfolds.
Nevertheless, the work of Sun Tzu, Mahan, Mackinder and Spykman continues to provide an essential intellectual foundation for understanding great-power competition.
The next chapter will turn from theory to history. It examines how the United States itself evolved from a continental republic focused on territorial expansion into the world's leading maritime power.
Glossary
Grand strategy – The coordinated use of military, diplomatic, economic and informational power to achieve a state's long-term political objectives.
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The next chapter examines how the United States evolved from a continental republic into the world's pre-eminent maritime power, demonstrating how these theories played out in practice.
References
Sun Tzu. The Art of War (c. 5th century BC).
Mahan, Alfred Thayer. The Influence of Sea Power upon History (1890).
Mackinder, Halford J. The Geographical Pivot of History (1904).
Spykman, Nicholas. The Geography of the Peace (1944).
Paine, Sarah C. M. The Strategy of Strategy: Rethinking War and Peace.
