FED PLUMBING UNDERSTOOD

What if the Fed's headline interest rate decision is pure pantomime?

---

Fast Track (30 seconds)

Michael Howell argues that the Fed's headline interest rate decision is theatre. The real liquidity signal sits in the plumbing: bank reserves, the repo market, and the spread between SOFR and what the Fed pays banks on reserves. When that spread widens, cash is genuinely scarce, whatever the headline rate says. A recent six month, six hundred billion dollar injection into money markets, triggered by exactly this kind of stress, is Howell's Exhibit A - and, by his account, the real explanation for Wall Street's buoyancy.

- Reserves - cash banks hold on deposit at the Fed, beyond what they lend out elsewhere.

- EFFR (Effective Federal Funds Rate) - the actual overnight rate banks charge each other to borrow reserves.

- SOFR (Secured Overnight Financing Rate) - the overnight rate for cash borrowed against Treasury collateral in the repo market.

- ON RRP (Overnight Reverse Repo Facility) - where money market funds park surplus cash with the Fed when reserves are abundant.

- SRF (Standing Repo Facility) - where banks borrow cash from the Fed against Treasury collateral when reserves are tight.

- IORB (Interest on Reserve Balances) - the rate the Fed pays banks on reserves; the anchor both EFFR and SOFR are meant to track.

- Fed funds target range - the Fed's official upper and lower bound, distinct from EFFR, which is the rate actually traded within it.

Introduction

Every six weeks or so, financial media treats the Federal Reserve's rate announcement as the most important economic event on the calendar. Michael Howell disagrees, and not mildly. In his view, the meeting itself is close to pantomime: a ritual performance that tells investors almost nothing about the actual state of liquidity in the financial system. The real story, he argues, is happening somewhere most people never look - in the technical plumbing of the banking system, where the Fed and Treasury quietly manage the pressure in a pipe network of reserves, repo markets and collateral.

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Why It Matters

If Howell is right, investors who fixate on the Fed funds rate are watching the wrong gauge. The plumbing indicators below move first, move more honestly, and - in Howell's telling - already explain a recent multi hundred billion dollar liquidity injection that the headline rate never predicted. Understanding them is a precondition for understanding where the liquidity cycle, and by extension asset prices, go next.

---

Contents Cover the Following

1. Why Howell calls the rate decision "pantomime"
2. The plumbing gauge that matters most: the SOFR spread
3. Two safety valves: the ON RRP and the Standing Repo Facility
4. The six hundred billion dollar case study
5. Bottom line and what to watch next

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1. Why Howell Calls the Rate Decision "Pantomime"

The actual volume of lending conducted at the Fed funds rate is small. That is Howell's starting point, and it is the reason he is dismissive of the attention paid to each FOMC meeting.

"Does it really matter that interest rates go up or down? Not really - the amount of transactions in the Fed funds market is diminutive."

He goes further: Kevin Warsh has signalled that under a different Fed leadership, there could be as few as three or four FOMC meetings a year, with no formal forward guidance at all. If the ritual itself may soon be scaled back, Howell's underlying point sharpens - the market's attention has been trained on the wrong signal for years.

What matters instead, in his framing, is what the Fed and Treasury are doing beneath the surface: managing bank reserves, watching wholesale money markets, and tracking how short term borrowing rates behave relative to the Fed's own targets.

---

2. The Plumbing Gauge That Matters Most: The SOFR Spread

Two overnight rates anchor the system. The Effective Federal Funds Rate (EFFR) is what banks actually charge each other to borrow reserves overnight. The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) is the equivalent rate for cash borrowed against Treasury collateral in the repo market. Both are meant to trade close to the rate the Fed pays banks on their reserve balances (IORB), with low volatility.

When they don't - when SOFR spikes away from that anchor - something in the plumbing is under strain. That spread, not the headline target range, is Howell's preferred early warning gauge for stress in short term funding markets.

A widening SOFR spread is a sign of friction in the system long before it shows up anywhere the headline rate can capture.

---

3. Two Safety Valves: The ON RRP and the Standing Repo Facility

Two Fed facilities sit at opposite ends of the same pipe.

The overnight reverse repo facility (ON RRP) absorbs surplus cash from money market funds and other institutions. When reserves are genuinely plentiful, usage should be minimal. Rising usage signals excess cash sloshing around with nowhere better to go.

The Standing Repo Facility (SRF) does the reverse: it lends cash to banks against Treasury collateral when they are short. Occasional use is normal. Sustained, growing use signals real thirst for liquidity in the banking system - the condition Howell points to directly in the case study below.

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4. The Six Hundred Billion Dollar Case Study

Howell points to a concrete recent episode. Over five to six months, the Federal Reserve injected roughly six hundred billion dollars into US money markets. He links that injection directly to the buoyancy of Wall Street over the same period - not as a side effect, but as a central driver.

The trigger, in his account, was that repo markets were growing short of liquidity, visible in exactly the indicator described above: SOFR spiking upward relative to the Fed's target range. The Fed responded not through a rate decision, but through the plumbing - reserve management purchases conducted purely to keep the banking system's cash levels adequate, with no accompanying announcement of the kind that dominates financial headlines.

---

Bottom Line

The Fed funds rate is a headline. The plumbing - reserves, the SOFR spread, and usage of the ON RRP and Standing Repo Facility - is where the real liquidity story is written. A recent six hundred billion dollar injection, triggered by repo market stress and largely invisible in mainstream coverage, is Howell's case that the plumbing already told investors what the rate decision could not.

---

Glossary

Reserves. In the Fed's plumbing, this refers to the cash balances that commercial banks hold on deposit at the central bank, above what they lend out elsewhere. Howell treats changes in reserves as more informative than the Fed funds rate itself, since reserve levels are one of the Fed's most direct levers for adding or draining liquidity.

Repurchase agreement (repo). A short term, secured loan structured as a sale and buyback of a security, usually overnight. One party sells a Treasury bond for cash and agrees to buy it back the next day at a slightly higher price; the other holds the bond as collateral. Stress in this market, visible as a spike in the repo rate, spreads quickly into the wider financial system.

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR). The benchmark rate for borrowing cash overnight against Treasury collateral. It has become the main reference for dollar borrowing costs and is one of Howell's preferred real time gauges of funding stress.

Standing Repo Facility (SRF). Lends cash to eligible banks and primary dealers against Treasury or agency collateral, at a rate set by the FOMC. It acts as a backstop when the repo market is short of cash, and rising use of it signals tightening liquidity in the banking system.

---

References

How money flows move asset prices

Michael Howell interview material
Federal Reserve Bank of New York - SOFR data and methodology
Federal Reserve Board - Standing Repo Facility and ON RRP operational notes

Related Articles on this Site

https://www.livingintheair.org/2026/08/the-liquidity-cycle-is-peaking-and-what.html

https://www.livingintheair.org/2026/06/slowing-liquidity.html

https://www.livingintheair.org/2026/06/fed-and-treasjury-buying-short-abd-long.html

https://www.livingintheair.org/2026/04/fx-swap-lines-used-to-support-us-fiscal.html

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ENERGY, EMPIRE AND THE DOLLAR

29 July 2926

ENERGY, EMPIRE AND THE DOLLAR

What if the wars dominating today's headlines are not really about oil at all, but about protecting a financial system built upon it?

Why the Financial System May Be Unable to Accept Defeat

Contents cover the following:

• Why energy has remained the organising principle of great-power strategy for more than a century

• Why control over oil finance may matter more than control over oil itself

• How the Western banking system became structurally dependent upon the petrodollar

• Why banking leverage could make negotiated peace financially dangerous

• How distorted commodity markets may be signalling deeper systemic stress

• Why inflation may become the preferred solution to an overleveraged financial system

• The strengths and weaknesses of this interpretation.

────────────────────────────

1. INTRODUCTION

Most discussions of international conflict revolve around ideology, democracy, human rights or territorial disputes. Those explanations undoubtedly play a role.

This article examines a different framework.

It proposes that energy has been the constant objective of imperial strategy for over a century, while the US dollar has become the financial mechanism through which control of energy translates into global financial power.

If this interpretation is correct, today's conflicts are not simply about territory or governments. They concern the preservation of a financial architecture whose stability depends upon continued confidence in dollar-denominated energy finance.

Whether every part of this argument proves correct is open to debate. Nevertheless, it offers a coherent explanation for several otherwise puzzling developments.

────────────────────────────

2. ENERGY HAS ALWAYS BEEN THE STRATEGIC PRIZE

The transition of the British Empire from coal to oil during the early twentieth century fundamentally altered global geopolitics.

Oil possessed extraordinary advantages.

Modern hydrocarbons perform more than fifty times the work obtainable from equivalent human labour. Industrial output, transport, agriculture and military capability all became directly dependent upon abundant energy supplies.

Consequently, economic growth has closely tracked energy consumption throughout modern history.

From this perspective, securing reliable control over hydrocarbon-producing regions became an enduring objective of great-power strategy.

The Middle East became strategically indispensable.

Later, attention increasingly focused upon other major reserves, including Venezuela and Canada's Alberta oil sands.

Supporters of this theory argue that these interests are best understood through energy security rather than the official language of democracy promotion, nuclear proliferation or humanitarian intervention.

Particular emphasis is placed upon heavy crude oil.

Unlike the lighter grades produced through hydraulic fracturing in the United States, heavy crude remains particularly valuable for aviation fuels, shipping and heavy industrial applications.

Its strategic importance therefore extends well beyond simple production volumes.

Glossary

Imperial energy logic – the argument that control over hydrocarbon-producing regions has shaped great-power strategy for over a century.

Heavy crude (sour crude) – dense, high-sulphur oil particularly suited to aviation fuel, shipping and heavy industry.. Dense, high-sulphur oil ("sour" refers to its sulphur content; low-sulphur oil is "sweet"). Refineries are designed for specific crude grades, and many US Gulf Coast refineries are optimised for heavy crude. America's shale oil is mainly light, sweet crude and cannot fully replace it, making Venezuelan heavy oil strategically important.

────────────────────────────

3. THE DOLLAR MAY BE THE REAL PRIZE

This interpretation argues that oil itself is not the ultimate objective. After all, countries without empires successfully purchase oil on international markets every day.

The real prize, according to this analysis, is control over financing. When Western banks finance energy projects for multinational companies such as Chevron or Shell, those loans become valuable assets on bank balance sheets.

The resulting oil is then typically sold in US dollars.

Loan repayments therefore flow back into Western financial institutions.

Under this model, wealth generated in Nigeria, Kazakhstan or elsewhere ultimately services debts owed to banks in London, New York or Paris.

Supporters describe this not as traditional colonialism but as financial colonialism.

Rather than directly owning foreign resources, financial institutions capture part of the value created through the financing mechanism itself. Countries attempting to finance their own energy development outside this system may therefore be perceived as threatening its foundations.

Glossary

Petrodollar recycling – the return of dollar-denominated oil revenues into Western financial institutions through lending and investment.

Financial colonialism – influence exercised through financial structures rather than direct political rule.

────────────────────────────

4. WHEN THE BANKING SYSTEM CANNOT AFFORD TO LOSE

A central constat is that decades of energy lending have created enormous banking exposure. Commercial banks typically operate with relatively thin capital cushions. High leverage means relatively modest losses can eliminate shareholder equity.

If conflicts interrupt energy production, export revenues decline. When borrowers cannot service loans, those loans become non-performing assets.

Supporters of this thesis argue that prolonged disruption across parts of the Middle East therefore threatens far more than oil supplies. It threatens the balance sheets of major Western financial institutions.

They further argue that the simultaneous commitment of vast sums to artificial intelligence infrastructure represents another layer of concentrated financial risk, increasing overall systemic vulnerability.

Glossary

Leverage ratio – the relationship between a bank's total assets and its capital.

Non-performing loan – a loan on which scheduled repayments have effectively ceased.

────────────────────────────

5. UKRAINE - A FINANCIAL PERSPECTIVE

The same framework is applied to Ukraine.

Western governments, investment funds and financial institutions hold substantial quantities of Ukrainian sovereign debt. Some investors reportedly purchased these bonds at distressed prices, anticipating eventual repayment under favourable political outcomes.

According to this interpretation, recognising military defeat would transform impaired assets into realised losses. That prospect creates powerful incentives to continue financial and political support.

Supporters argue that this helps explain why negotiated settlements remain politically difficult despite mounting costs.

Critics would counter that governments continue supporting Ukraine primarily because of security concerns, alliance commitments and deterrence against future aggression.

Which thesis is the more credible?

Glossary

Repo market – the market where financial institutions obtain short-term funding using securities as collateral.

Temporary impairment – an accounting treatment allowing losses to remain unrealised while recovery is still considered possible.

────────────────────────────

6. WHEN MARKETS STOP REFLECTING EVENTS

Perhaps the most controversial evidence concerns commodity markets.

In 2019, attacks upon Saudi Arabia's Abqaiq processing facility triggered one of history's largest single-day increases in oil prices.

Supporters of this theory argue that subsequent attacks producing comparable or greater disruption generated surprisingly muted or even negative price movements. They interpret this divergence as evidence of intervention, aggressive short selling or official efforts to maintain market confidence.

Alternative explanations also exist. Modern oil markets possess greater spare capacity, more sophisticated hedging instruments and different expectations than existed several years earlier.

Nevertheless, repeated discrepancies between geopolitical risk and commodity pricing inevitably raise questions regarding price discovery.

Glossary

Price discovery – the process through which markets establish prices by matching buyers and sellers.

Naked short selling – selling securities without first borrowing them or confirming delivery.

────────────────────────────

7. THE ENDGAME: INFLATION RATHER THAN COLLAPSE

The final stage of this argument concerns crisis management.

During the financial crisis of 2008, governments openly recapitalised banks. Today, central banks possess far greater capacity to create liquidity electronically.

Supporters argue this makes outright banking collapse less likely. Instead, losses may be absorbed gradually through monetary expansion.

History offers several examples where excessive money creation preserved financial institutions but significantly reduced purchasing power. Weimar Germany, Zimbabwe and Argentina are frequently cited, although each emerged under very different political and economic circumstances.

Under this scenario, inflation becomes a hidden method of distributing banking losses across society ie savers, rather than concentrating them within financial institutions.

For savvy investors, this interpretation often leads to increased allocations towards physical precious metals, diversified real assets, liquidity held outside highly leveraged institutions and reduced dependence upon debt.

Glossary

Quantitative easing – central bank creation of money to purchase financial assets or provide liquidity.

Monetary debasement – reduction in a currency's purchasing power through expansion of the money supply.

────────────────────────────

8. WHY THIS THEORY DESERVES SERIOUS CONSIDERATION

The argument presented here should not be accepted uncritically.

Several claims remain difficult to verify independently, while some depend upon assumptions regarding the motivations of governments, central banks and financial institutions.

Yet the framework possesses internal consistency. It links energy, finance, banking leverage, geopolitics and monetary policy into a single explanatory model. We have seen this understanding elsewhere: liquidity from the banking system is dirrected into finanacially attractive assets, that then hit economics and eventually geopolitics supports this flow.

Individual equity values reflect their performance and prospects as corporate entities. But the market as a whole takes its value from the availability of credit for investment. In 2013, the S&P was 1,500 and the amount of credit leverage was $2 trillion. In March this year, credit leverage was $9.4 trillion, and the S&P was 6850. Both credit and the index have increased slightly more than 4.5 times.

 (Michael Howell)

Whether entirely correct or only partially so, it raises important questions.

If the true strategic asset is not oil itself but the dollar-denominated central banking system that finances global energy production, then today's conflicts are about securing battlefields to preserve the bond market's financial balance sheets.

────────────────────────────

9. THE BOTTOM LINE

The central proposition is straightforward. Energy remains the foundation of industrial civilisation.

The US dollar remains the principal financial infrastructure through which much of that energy is financed.

If Western banks have become heavily leveraged upon that system, then military defeat carries consequences extending far beyond geopolitics and hegemonic survival, defeat threatens the integrity of the financial architecture itself.

Whether one agrees with every conclusion or not, this is how to view the wars of the twenty-first century. It suggests that the real battlefield may not be oilfields, pipelines or front lines... It is the balance sheets of the global financial system.

────────────────────────────

References

• Daniel Yergin, The Prize: The Epic Quest for Oil, Money and Power. 

• Daniel Yergin, The New Map. 

• Michael Hudson, Super Imperialism. 

• David Graeber, Debt: The First 5,000 Years. 

• Bank for International Settlements (BIS), annual banking statistics. 

• International Energy Agency (IEA), World Energy Outlook. 

• US Energy Information Administration (EIA), international petroleum data. 

• International Monetary Fund (IMF), Global Financial Stability Reports.

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● Living in the Air · Propaganda & Governance

Who Should Decide What Citizens Are Allowed to See

Beneath France's new push against “disinformation” sits an older and harder question: who gets to decide what a citizen may see, read, and share?

21 July 2026  ·  Translated & adapted for English readers

“La France va tout bloquer” — France is about to lock it all down. That's the blunt version circulating online. The measured version is subtler, and more unsettling.

This piece covers

— France's new proposals for regulating online information	— Who really controls platform algorithms
— Disinformation vs. misinformation vs. malinformation	— The case being made for tighter regulation
— What's at stake for free expression	— The risk to democratic pluralism

01  A new phase in information control

France appears to be moving toward a significant expansion of its power to intervene in how information circulates on social media.

The sharper reading

France wants full control over every social media platform operating within its borders.

The stated goal is to protect upcoming elections from manipulation, coordinated influence campaigns, and foreign interference — a concern shared by many democracies grappling with the power of major platforms. It is not uniquely French.

But some observers argue the tools being proposed reach far beyond simply combating false information.

The sharper reading

This is the end of democracy in France.

The real debate, then, isn't only about disinformation. It's about the line between protecting democratic debate and controlling it.

Disinformation
The deliberate spreading of false or misleading information.

Pluralism
The coexistence of differing viewpoints within democratic debate.

02  The birth of information “grey zones”

One significant shift is the widening of categories that could become subject to regulation. This would no longer be limited to punishing outright falsehoods — it could extend to content judged capable of creating a “distorted perception of reality,” even when built on accurate facts.

The sharper reading

They want the power to punish people who aren't lying.

This distinction — between disinformation, misinformation, and malinformation — is probably the most contentious part of the proposals. Critics worry it would gradually turn fact-checking into interpretation-checking.

The sharper reading

They'll be prosecuting thoughtcrime.

The legal problem becomes genuinely difficult here: when a fact is accurate but framed provocatively or critically, at what point does it stop being an opinion and start being treated as a threat to public debate? That is precisely the line now generating so much anxiety.

Malinformation
Using accurate information in a context judged likely to cause harm.

Misinformation
Spreading inaccurate information without deliberate intent to deceive.

03  Who controls the algorithm?

Parliamentary hearings appear to have exposed a gap between how platforms actually work and what some officials expect of them. Representatives from YouTube and X pointed out that their systems mainly recommend content matching each user's own viewing habits, not a single editorial line — meaning two people can see very different recommendations purely because their browsing histories differ.

Some lawmakers nonetheless believe this personalization fuels informational bubbles, and want more transparency — or more control.

The sharper reading

They want to decide which videos get promoted.

Critics respond that tighter control over recommendations could — intentionally or not — end up favouring certain narratives over others. The debate ultimately pits two philosophies against each other: should the algorithm serve individual preference, or should it be made to serve a state-defined “public interest”?

Algorithm
The set of computational rules that determines what content is shown to a user.

Informational bubble
An environment in which a user mostly sees content that matches their existing preferences.

04  “Trusted” media

Another idea on the table: officially flagging certain sources as especially reliable. Supporters say this would help citizens separate real journalism from online rumour.

The sharper reading

They'll pick the “trusted” outlets and quietly bury the rest.

Opponents fear such a system would create an official hierarchy of information. The obvious question follows: who decides the criteria for that label? Even framed with protective intent, several analysts note the mechanism could favour certain actors at the expense of others — narrowing, over time, the diversity of opinion actually available to the public.

05  ARCOM and the power to punish

The proposals also envision expanded powers for France's media regulator, ARCOM. Supporters argue current tools are too slow to keep up with fast-moving manipulation campaigns.

The sharper reading

Give ARCOM sweeping new power to punish people even when they haven't lied.

Critics see this differently: an expansion of sanctioning power that could set a significant precedent, opening the door to much broader intervention in online content generally. The balance being sought is genuinely delicate — how do you protect public discourse from manipulation without eroding the freedom to speak?

06  The case for, the case against

Both sides of this argument have real substance behind them.

The case for reform Democracies now face sophisticated manipulation campaigns that exploit social media to shape public opinion at scale. Leaving platforms to self-regulate, on this view, hands over an essential piece of democratic infrastructure to private companies with no accountability to voters.

The case against The state should never hold the power to arbitrate which opinions are acceptable to hold. Once the tools of control exist, nothing guarantees a future, less scrupulous government won't inherit and use them. Emergency powers granted for one purpose have a long history of outliving their original justification.

07  A question bigger than France

This debate isn't purely a French problem. The UK, the EU, the US, Australia, and numerous other democracies are wrestling with the same three-way tension: free expression, resistance to digital manipulation, and s0-called "protection" of the electoral process.

Everywhere, the same question resurfaces: how far can a democratic state go in policing information before it becomes a neo-totalitarian arbiter of public debate itself?

This isn't a clean choice between absolute freedom and absolute control. The real task is preserving a space where citizens can keep confronting different - even uncomfortable, to the ruling elite - ideas, while limiting or masking deliberate manipulation campaigns. That balance is hard to strike. And it is precisely in moments of political tension that free expression and pluralism are tested most severely.

Free expression
The right to communicate one's opinions within the limits set by law.

Democratic pluralism
The durable existence of a genuine diversity of thought, media, and opinion that makes real public debate possible.

Who decides — and who watches the ones who decide?

Translated and adapted from the original French — Living in the Air, 21 July 2026

livingintheair.org

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00-01-03 FROM COAST TO COAST TO COMMAND OF THE SEA

BOOK ONE - CHAPTER THREE
28 June 2026

From Continental Republic to Maritime Superpower

How the United States Changed Its Grand Strategy

Why would a country that spent a century fighting for land suddenly decide the ocean mattered more?

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From Coast to Coast to Command of the Seas

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Fast-track overview (30 second read)

The United States began as a continental power, expanding across North America through purchase, diplomacy and war. Once it reached the Pacific, land conquest stopped paying off - so it pivoted to trade, and trade needed a navy. That pivot, shaped by thinkers like Alfred Thayer Mahan, turned a continental republic into the world's dominant maritime power.

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The United States did not begin life as a maritime power. For much of the nineteenth century, it behaved like a classic continental state, expanding across North America through diplomacy, purchase and war. Only later did it adopt the maritime strategy that would make it the world's leading global power. This chapter based on lectures given by Sarah Paine traces that shift - and why it matters for understanding American strategy today.

Contents cover the following:

1. America Begins as a Continental Power
2. Expansion Across a Continent
3. The Monroe Doctrine
4. Reaching the Pacific Changes Everything
5. The Great Strategic Transformation
6. Lessons from America's Evolution

Why it matters

Understanding this shift explains why the United States still organises its power around naval dominance and open sea lanes rather than territorial control - a strategic instinct with roots stretching back over a century, and one still shaping today's great power competition.

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1. America Begins as a Continental Power

When the United States declared independence in 1776, its principal concern was not overseas trade or global influence. It was survival.

The young republic occupied a narrow strip along the Atlantic coast. To the west lay vast territories controlled by Native American nations, France and Spain. To the north stood British Canada, while the Gulf of Mexico remained under foreign control.

Like other continental powers, the United States viewed territorial expansion as the path to security and prosperity. Its strategic objective was straightforward: reach the Pacific Ocean.

Glossary

Continental power - a state whose security depends primarily upon controlling and defending land territory.

Territorial expansion - the acquisition of additional land through purchase, settlement, diplomacy or conquest.

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2. Expansion Across a Continent

Sarah Paine points out that America expanded differently from many earlier continental empires. Whenever possible, it preferred diplomacy and financial negotiation over military conquest.

- The Louisiana Purchase (1803) from France doubled the country's size.
- The Adams-Onis Treaty (1819) secured Florida from Spain.
- The Alaska Purchase (1867) transferred Russian America to the United States.

When negotiation failed, however, force followed. The Mexican-American War (1846-1848) resulted in the annexation of vast territories including present-day California, Nevada, Utah and much of Arizona and New Mexico.

Paine notes that even the United States, often viewed today as a maritime power, spent much of its early history behaving like a continental state.

Glossary

Manifest Destiny - the nineteenth-century belief that the United States was destined to expand across North America.

Checkbook diplomacy - achieving strategic objectives through financial agreements rather than military force.

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3. The Monroe Doctrine

In 1823, President James Monroe announced what became known as the Monroe Doctrine. European powers were warned against establishing new colonies or interfering in the affairs of the Western Hemisphere.

In practice, the United States lacked the military strength to enforce this declaration. The British Royal Navy largely upheld it because Britain also wished to prevent rival European empires from re-establishing colonial monopolies in the Americas.

Even so, the Monroe Doctrine illustrates continental thinking. It asserted an exclusive sphere of influence rather than promoting an open international order.

Glossary

Sphere of influence - a region in which one great power claims predominant political or strategic influence.

Open international order - a system of international relations based on agreed rules, open trade, freedom of navigation and respect for national sovereignty. Supporters argue it promotes growth and reduces conflict; critics contend it can reflect the interests of the most powerful states.

Monroe Doctrine - an American foreign policy declaration issued in 1823 opposing further European colonial expansion in the Americas.

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4. Reaching the Pacific Changes Everything

By the late nineteenth century, the United States had achieved what earlier generations sought: it stretched from the Atlantic to the Pacific, and its continental frontier was largely complete.

This transformed America's strategic position. No longer focused solely on acquiring territory, it could increasingly turn towards overseas commerce. Industrialisation generated enormous productive capacity; factories required export markets, and imports became equally important. Trade replaced land acquisition as the principal engine of national wealth.

This was precisely the environment in which Alfred Thayer Mahan's ideas gained influence. He argued that national greatness depended not upon conquering more territory but upon protecting maritime trade through naval power. His ideas profoundly influenced American policymakers.

Glossary

Industrialisation - the transition from an agricultural economy to one based upon manufacturing and industry.

Naval power - the ability to protect commerce and project national influence through maritime forces.

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5. The Great Strategic Transformation

Sarah Paine argues that this marked one of the most important shifts in American history. The United States did not abandon its continental foundations. Rather, it added a maritime dimension to its strategy.

Its geography now offered exceptional advantages: two great oceans protected its flanks, abundant natural resources supported industry, navigable rivers connected the interior, and expanding ports linked America to global markets.

Few countries possessed such a favourable combination of continental resources and maritime access. During the twentieth century these advantages enabled the United States to emerge as the world's foremost maritime power while retaining the industrial strength of a continental economy.

Glossary

Grand strategy - the long-term coordination of diplomatic, military, economic and political power to achieve national objectives.

Maritime strategy - a strategy centred upon naval strength, overseas commerce and secure sea communications.

---

6. Lessons from America's Evolution

Paine's historical survey illustrates an important principle. Geography provides opportunities, but it takes strategy for nations to exploit them.

America's rise was not inevitable. Its leaders gradually recognised that once continental expansion had been completed, future prosperity depended less upon acquiring additional land and more upon protecting international trade, maintaining secure sea lanes and building alliances.

This transformation laid the foundations for the modern international order that emerged after the Second World War. In the next chapter we examine the thinker who explained why this maritime transformation mattered so profoundly: Admiral Alfred Thayer Mahan.

---

Bottom Line

The United States began as a continental republic. During the nineteenth century it expanded across North America through diplomacy, purchase and war. Once that expansion ended, its strategic outlook changed fundamentally - from security through territory to prosperity through commerce and security through command of the seas.

What is original here is the framing: America's maritime rise is often told as destiny, but Paine's account - and this chapter's - shows it as a pivot, a strategic choice made only once continental options were exhausted. That reframing matters for how we read rising powers today, including those still in their continental phase.

Next in the series: the man whose ideas gave this pivot its intellectual foundation - Alfred Thayer Mahan.

---

Test Me

- If America's continental frontier had not closed when it did, do you think the maritime pivot would have happened at all - or happened differently?
- Britain enforced the Monroe Doctrine for its own reasons, not America's. Where else in history has one power's strategy been upheld by another power's self-interest?
- Paine frames geography as opportunity, not destiny. What other nation today sits on geographic advantages it has not yet turned into strategy?

---

Related Articles

Parts 1 and 2 in this series are already published:

Part 1: Continental and Maritime Powers

Part 2: Thinkers Who Changed How We See Power

Parts 4, 5 and 6 are in publication.

---

Further Reading

Max Otte:

https://youtu.be/riz5hs2fkGo?is=qaPwqMYrdY54RiIC

https://youtu.be/tJWqn9I4sYU?is=0Dr04kIUNg9H-0ta

https://youtu.be/HC3RIAVQ9dY?is=WP737dyTJoZR9rpU

Sarah Paine - playlist:

https://youtube.com/playlist?list=PLd7-bHaQwnthnOed1a85mF7L-Ki3kdiqp&si=nulceh38zApV0n8v

---

References

Sarah C. M. Paine, The Strategy of Strategy: Rethinking War and Peace.

Alfred Thayer Mahan, The Influence of Sea Power upon History (1890).

James Monroe, Seventh Annual Message to Congress (Monroe Doctrine), 2 December 1823.

Walter A. McDougall, Promised Land, Crusader State (1997).

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00-01-02 THE THINKERS WHO CHANGED HOW NATIONS VIEW THE WORLD

26 June 2026

EPISODE ZERO • CHAPTER ONE

The Foundations of Geopolitics - Sarah Paine

LECTURE TWO

Thinkers Who Changed How Strategists View The World

Why do some nations become global powers while others remain trapped by geography? Is power determined by armies, navies, trade, or simply where a country happens to sit on the map?

Thinkers who changed how geopolitical strategists changed the world - intro

──────────────────────────────────

Why It Matters

Understanding today's rivalry between China, Russia and the United States begins long before the twentieth century. Four influential strategists—Sun Tzu, Alfred Thayer Mahan, Halford Mackinder and Nicholas Spykman—developed ideas that still shape military planning and foreign policy today. Although writing in different centuries, each attempted to answer the same enduring question:

"What determines the rise, security and survival of great powers?"

Their answers continue to influence debates over Ukraine, Taiwan, NATO, maritime security and the future balance of power.

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Overview

Before analysing today's rivalry between China, Russia and the United States, it is worth meeting the strategic thinkers whose ideas continue to influence policymakers. Although separated by centuries, Sun Tzu, Alfred Thayer Mahan, Halford Mackinder and Nicholas Spykman all sought to answer the same question: 

What determines the rise and survival of great powers?

Contents cover the following:

• Why geography remains one of the most enduring influences on international politics.

• Why Sun Tzu's ideas reflected the realities of continental warfare.

• How Mahan transformed strategic thinking by placing sea power and commerce at its centre.

• Why Mackinder believed control of Eurasia's Heartland could determine global dominance.

• How Spykman challenged Mackinder by arguing that the Rimland mattered more than the interior.

• Why Sarah Paine combines these theories into a single framework for understanding modern geopolitics.

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1. The Search for Enduring Principles

Military technology changes constantly. Empires rise and fall. Political ideologies come and go. Yet one factor changes very little. Geography.

Mountain ranges, navigable rivers, deserts, fertile plains and oceans continue to influence the choices available to every nation. Sarah Paine points out that the most successful strategists recognised this long before the modern age.

Rather than treating history as a sequence of isolated wars, they searched for recurring patterns that explain why some states prosper while others decline.

• Sun Tzu
• Mahan, Alfred Thayer
• Mackinder, Halford J
• Spykman, Nicholas

Their ideas still shape strategic thinking today.

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Glossary

Strategy – The long-term plan for achieving political objectives by coordinating military, diplomatic, economic and other national resources.

Geography – The physical features of the Earth that influence human settlement, trade, defence and political power.

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2. Sun Tzu: The Continental World

Writing around the fifth century BC during China's turbulent Warring States period, Sun Tzu produced one of history's most influential works on strategy: The Art of War.

His world was entirely continental. Power depended upon armies. Threats came from neighbouring kingdoms. Territory and frontiers determined security.

Sea power hardly featured because maritime commerce played little role in China's political system at that time. Sun Tzu therefore concentrated on intelligence, deception, logistics, alliances and defeating opponents as efficiently as possible.

His famous principle that "the supreme art of war is to subdue the enemy without fighting" reflects the reality that prolonged continental warfare imposed enormous costs upon rulers.

The Industrial Revolution fundamentally altered the relationship between geography and power. Steamships, global trade and industrial production shifted attention from land frontiers towards the oceans

Sarah Paine argues that Sun Tzu's strategic assumptions reflected the geography of ancient China rather than universal military principles.

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Glossary

Continental strategy – A security approach centred upon defending or expanding territory through land power.

Logistics – The movement and supply of military forces.

Deception – Deliberately misleading an opponent to gain strategic advantage. Eg "When you are near, make the enemy believe you are far away; when you are far away, make him believe you are near."

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3. Alfred Thayer Mahan: The Sea Changes Everything

By the late nineteenth century, American naval officer Alfred Thayer Mahan observed that Britain's global influence rested less upon territorial conquest than upon commerce.

Published in 1890, The Influence of Sea Power upon History argued that wealth generated through maritime trade could finance powerful navies, global influence and long-term national prosperity.

According to Alfred Thayer Mahan, successful maritime powers required several conditions.

• An accessible coastline
• Secure access to the oceans
• Strong commercial ports
• Reliable political institutions
• A thriving merchant fleet
• A navy capable of protecting trade.

His ideas profoundly influenced naval planning in Britain, Germany, Japan and the United States.

Many historians regard Mahan as the intellectual architect of modern naval strategy.

Yet sea power did not eliminate geography. Instead, it encouraged scholars to ask whether control of the Eurasian landmass might ultimately outweigh maritime dominance.

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Glossary

Merchant fleet – Commercial ships that transport goods between countries.

Sea power – The ability to project national influence through maritime commerce and naval strength.

Maritime commerce – International trade conducted by sea.

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4. Halford Mackinder: The Heartland

In 1904, British geographer Sir Halford Mackinder proposed one of geopolitics' most famous theories.

He argued that the vast interior of Eurasia formed the world's strategic "Heartland".

According to Halford Mackinder, successful continental powers required several conditions.

• A large, defensible landmass.
• Secure interior lines of communication.
• Extensive natural resources.
• A substantial population and industrial base.
• Efficient railways and internal transport.
• Armed forces capable of controlling the Heartland and resisting maritime encirclement.

Protected by mountains, deserts and immense distances, the heartland region was difficult for maritime powers to penetrate. And then, railways began transforming transport across Eurasia, strengthened this advantage by allowing continental powers to move armies internally without relying upon vulnerable sea routes.

Mackinder feared that if one great power united the Heartland (we think of Germany for technology and production, Russia for resources), it could eventually dominate Eurasia and potentially challenge the maritime world.

Although later criticised and modified, Heartland Theory became enormously influential during both World Wars and the Cold War.

Spykman - next - admired Mackinder's geographical insight but believed he had identified the wrong strategic prize.

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Glossary

Heartland – Mackinder's term for the central landmass of Eurasia, regarded as the strategic core of continental power.

Interior lines – Internal transport routes allowing armies to move efficiently within their own territory.

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5. Nicholas Spykman: The Importance of the Rimland

Dutch-born American scholar Nicholas Spykman accepted much of Mackinder's analysis but reached a different conclusion. Writing during the Second World War, he argued that control of Eurasia's coastal regions mattered more than control of its interior.

Spykman never produced a neat checklist like Mahan, but his writings imply one. According to Nicholas Spykman, successful Rimland powers required several conditions.

• Control of the coastal rim surrounding Eurasia.
• Strong alliances with neighbouring maritime and continental states.
• Secure access to both land and sea communications.
• Industrial and economic strength concentrated in the coastal belt.
• Armed forces capable of preventing any single power from dominating Eurasia.
• The ability to maintain a favourable balance of power rather than seeking absolute dominance.

Unlike Mackinder, Spykman argued that controlling the Heartland alone was insufficient. The decisive strategic prize was the Rimland ie the densely populated coastal belt containing most of the world's population, industry, ports and trade routes. Whoever prevented any one power from dominating the Rimland would shape the global balance of power.

Many historians regard Spykman as one of the principal intellectual architects of the American strategy of containment during the Cold War and of the broader policy of preventing the emergence of a regional hegemon in Eurasia.

And so we have a pleasing progression through our four thinkers:

• Sun Tzu – Win through superior strategy, deception and understanding the enemy.
• Mahan – Command the seas to protect commerce and project power.
• Mackinder – Control the Heartland to dominate the World-Island.
• Spykman – Control the Rimland to prevent any rival from dominating Eurasia.

He called these coastal zones the Rimland. These included Western Europe, the Middle East, South Asia and East Asia. The Rimland contains most of the world's population, industry, ports and economic activity.

For Spykman, preventing any hostile power from dominating these regions became the central objective of American grand strategy.

Many historians see clear echoes of Spykman's thinking in NATO, America's alliance network in East Asia and its continuing emphasis on freedom of navigation.

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Glossary

Rimland – The densely populated coastal belt surrounding Eurasia.

Freedom of navigation – The principle that ships may move lawfully through international waters without interference.

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6. Four Thinkers, One Conversation

A useful way to understand these four thinkers is to see them as successive contributors - as above - to a single strategic conversation spanning more than two millennia. Each asked the same fundamental question: How can a state survive, prosper and remain secure in a dangerous world?

Their answers reflected the changing realities of their own eras. 

• Sun Tzu land warfare examined survival through the effective use of land armies
• Mahan sea power argued that naval power and maritime commerce were the foundations of national greatness; 
• Mackinder continental geography contended that control of Eurasia's continental Heartland conferred strategic advantage; and 
• Spykman coastal margins responded that it was the surrounding Rimland - the populous coastal belt - that ultimately determined global power. 

Together, their ideas form one of the intellectual foundations of modern geopolitics and grand strategy.

Sarah Paine argues that these thinkers should not be viewed as rivals competing to produce a single 'correct' geopolitical theory. Rather, each describes one dimension of strategy.

- Sun Tzu explains how states compete on land

- Mahan explains how maritime commerce generates wealth and naval power

- Mackinder explains the strategic significance of Eurasia's interior

- Spykman explains why the coastal margins of Eurasia remain the principal arena of global competition.

Together they provide a four-perspective framework that modern strategists draw upon, depending upon the circumstances.

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Conclusion

No single geopolitical theory explains every historical event. Technology, economics, culture and political leadership all matter. Geography does not dictate history, but it sets the stage upon which history unfolds.

Nevertheless, the work of Sun Tzu, Mahan, Mackinder and Spykman continues to provide an essential intellectual foundation for understanding great-power competition.

The next chapter will turn from theory to history. It examines how the United States itself evolved from a continental republic focused on territorial expansion into the world's leading maritime power.

Glossary

Grand strategy – The coordinated use of military, diplomatic, economic and informational power to achieve a state's long-term political objectives.

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The next chapter examines how the United States evolved from a continental republic into the world's pre-eminent maritime power, demonstrating how these theories played out in practice.

References

The Failure of America to Dominate the World Island

The New Pivot of History

Sun Tzu. The Art of War (c. 5th century BC).

Mahan, Alfred Thayer. The Influence of Sea Power upon History (1890).

Mackinder, Halford J. The Geographical Pivot of History (1904).

Spykman, Nicholas. The Geography of the Peace (1944).

Paine, Sarah C. M. The Strategy of Strategy: Rethinking War and Peace.

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IS PROF PAPE RIGHT - CAN IRAN BECOME THE FOURTH GLOBAL POWER

17 July 2026

Can a nation become a global power before it has first become the accepted leader of its own region?

Contents cover the following:

• Professor Robert Pape's argument that Iran could emerge as a fourth global power.

• Why regional hegemony is the essential missing step.

• The obstacles Iran would still face.

• Why long-term survival is likely to be Tehran's first priority.

• The possible roles of nuclear deterrence, Russia, China and Türkiye.

• Why the next five years are unlikely to produce an Iranian global power.

1. The Missing Step in Pape's Argument

Professor Robert Pape has suggested here that, should the United States substantially reduce or possibly abandon its military presence in the Gulf, Iran could emerge as the world's fourth global power. It is a provocative idea, but one that leaves an important question unanswered.

Before any state can become a global power, it must first become the accepted regional hegemon.

Military strength alone is not enough. History suggests that regional dominance requires neighbouring states to adjust their policies because they conclude that resistance is either impossible, prohibitively expensive or no longer in their interests. Military superiority transforms into political authority through recognition.

At present there is some though not a lot of convincing evidence that this process has begun.

Saudi Arabia, the Gulf monarchies, Jordan and Israel have certainly adjusted aspects of their policies towards Iran, but none has accepted Iran as the region's "security manager". Most continue to balance Iranian influence through diplomacy, military spending or external alliances.

Glossary 

Regional hegemon – the dominant state within a geographical region whose influence is recognised, even reluctantly, by its neighbours.

Balance (or balancing) – a strategy whereby states seek to prevent one country from becoming dominant by strengthening their own military capabilities, forming alliances, or deepening diplomatic and economic ties with other powers. The objective is not necessarily to defeat the stronger state, but to deter it and preserve a balance of power.

Example: Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states seek to balance Iranian influence by maintaining close security relationships with the United States while also expanding their own defence capabilities.

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2. Survival Comes Before Ambition

There is another assumption that deserves examination.

Much Western analysis begins by asking what Iran wants to achieve. A more realistic question may be what risks Iran might face and whether it is possible to mitigate them.

Since 1979, Iran has endured one devastating conventional war (Iraq 1980-88), decades of sanctions, repeated covert operations, the murder of its spiritual leader and his family and much of the cabinet, assassinations of senior military officers and nuclear scientists, cyber attacks, proxy conflicts across the Middle East, and direct military confrontation with Israel and the United States, the world's foremost military power. From Tehran's perspective, this history helps explain why long-term survival and deterrence are a first priority although once achieved regional political authority - not territorial expansion - would be the next priority. And given this history it is pretty certain that Iran would choose revenge at the risk of matrydom or extinction, rather than submission to America.

Whether one agrees with that perception is almost beside the point. States formulate strategy according to their founding myths and how they interpret threats, not how others interpret them.

If Iranian leaders conclude that future attacks are inevitable unless they fundamentally alter the regional balance of power, then ensuring that such attacks become prohibitively costly becomes the logical objective.

In that sense, survival is not merely remaining in office. It is creating a security environment in which regime change by external powers becomes effectively impossible.

Glossary

Deterrence – persuading an opponent not to attack because the expected costs outweigh any possible gains.

Proxy war – a conflict in which rival powers support opposing local forces rather than fighting each other directly.

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3. The Search for Long-Term Security

If survival is indeed Tehran's principal objective, several strategic consequences follow.

Iran is likely to continue investing heavily in missiles, drones, air defences and dispersed military command and infrastructure.

It may also continue strengthening strategic relationships with both Russia and China. Neither country is necessarily seeking Iranian regional dominance, but both have reasons to oppose further expansion of American influence across Eurasia.

Many analysts also believe that Iran will now now, under new leadership, be developing the capability to produce nuclear weapons quickly if it judges its security environment to demand it. Whether Tehran ultimately chooses to cross that threshold remains uncertain and contested, but the debate itself reflects the central importance of deterrence.

None of these developments automatically makes Iran a regional hegemon. They simply make it increasingly difficult to coerce.

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4. The Obstacles to Regional Hegemony

Even assuming a gradual reduction of American influence, Iran would still face formidable obstacles.

Saudi Arabia possesses enormous financial resources and continues modernising its armed forces.

Türkiye combines a large industrial economy, NATO-standard military capabilities and growing regional ambitions. In many respects, Türkiye may represent the most significant long-term competitor for influence across West Asia (and this would be why Israel now views Türkiye and more of a threat than Iran).

Israel is still a militarily powerful and technologically advanced threat to the region.

Nor is it obvious that the Gulf monarchies would simply exchange American protection for Iranian leadership. More likely, they would attempt to balance among several external powers while preserving their own autonomy.

Regional hegemony cannot simply be declared... it has to be accepted.

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5. Could America Reopen the Strait of Hormuz?

The Strait of Hormuz remains central to every discussion of Gulf security.

Iran has successfully disrupted maritime traffic, and reopening the waterway would almost certainly prove far more difficult than many public discussions imply.

It is conceivable that the United States could eventually reopen the Strait, through an extended military campaign. However, the scale, duration and costs of such an operation are highly uncertain. Military, political and logistical factors do not give confidence.

Equally important are the economic consequences of this prolonged disruption. Even a temporary interruption of Gulf energy exports places severe strain on global markets, and global reserves are expected to run out in August ie well before any military campaign could achieve its objectives.

These uncertainties help explain why deterrence and signalling remain so important in Gulf strategy.

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6. The Long Road to Becoming a Global Power

Iran's strategies to successfully secure its long-term survival and future include deterrence, preventing hostile encirclement, maintaining influence in neighbouring conflicts, reducing or expelling US and Israeli military presence.

But becoming a global power would require several further steps.

First, Iran would have to become the recognised regional hegemon.

Second, it would need to transform military influence into durable economic leadership.

Third, neighbouring states would need increasingly to consult Tehran on regional security.

Fourth, major global powers would have to treat Iran as an indispensable participant in resolving international crises.

Today, those conditions have not been fulfilled.

Iran is undoubtedly an important regional actor. It has demonstrated resilience under extraordinary pressure and has significantly expanded its military capabilities. But, given that 

- like all political leaders Trump cannot withdraw as this would be seen by his MAGA base as surrender and cost him the midterms, his credibility, and his legacy; 

- while Iran by its national character as much as by the assassinations and betrayals it has suffered at the hands of the West seeks martyrdom or extinction and probably revenge rather than submission to America; 

we are likely to see some form of intermittent or forever war though on a far greater scale leading to military exhaustion; and not a neat reopening of hormuz with the oil price falling gently back to the $70s.

So Iran will not be the one to fold, yet resilience should not be confused with hegemony, nor hegemony with global power.

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7. Conclusion

Professor Pape's scenario remains intellectually stimulating because it forces readers to think beyond the immediate conflict and ask what a post-American Gulf might look like.

However, the pathway from survival to regional hegemony, and from regional hegemony to becoming a fourth global power, wood need a bit more thinking through as to how it might come about.

Iran has no avowed ambition to build an empire, rather, it is seeking to ensure that no foreign power can again threaten its existence without facing unacceptable costs.

If that is indeed the primary objective, then military deterrence, strategic partnerships and political resilience is the path it is likely on.

Whether these developments eventually produce a new regional order remains uncertain.

Over the next five years, however, Iran appears more likely to consolidate its security than to emerge as the world's fourth global power.

References

• Robert A. Pape, Bombing to Win and subsequent lectures on coercion and American grand strategy.

• Barry Buzan and Ole Wæver, Regions and Powers.

• John J. Mearsheimer, The Tragedy of Great Power Politics.

• Stephen M. Walt, The Origins of Alliances.

Related articles:

• THE ESCALATION TRAP

• America's Enduring Goal and Grand Strategy for War

• BOMBING TO WIN: PAPE ON IRAN

• BOMBING TO WIN: PAPE ON RUSSIA

ADDENDUM -- Iran's military conflicts:

Iran–Iraq War (1980–1988)

An eight-year conventional war initiated by Iraq's invasion.

Approximately 500,000–1,000,000 total military and civilian casualties on both sides (estimates vary).

Lebanon conflict (1982–present, indirect)

Iran has supported Hezbollah against Israel through funding, training and weapons.

This has involved repeated conflicts, notably in 2006 and subsequent exchanges.

Syrian Civil War (from 2011)

Iran intervened in support of the Syrian government.

It deployed advisers, organised allied militias and provided extensive military assistance.

War against ISIS in Iraq (2014–2017)

Iran supported the Iraqi government and Shi'a militias against ISIS.

It played a significant role alongside the US-led coalition, although independently.

Yemen conflict (from around 2015, indirect)

Iran has backed the Houthis politically and militarily, while Saudi Arabia led a coalition supporting the internationally recognised government.

Direct conflict with Israel and the United States (2024–present)

Following years of covert operations and proxy warfare, the confrontation has increasingly involved direct missile and drone exchanges, Israeli strikes inside Iran, and US military involvement.

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QUI DEVRAIT DÉCIDER DE CE QUE LES CITOYENS PEUVENT VOIR

le 21 juillet 2026

La France va tout bloquer

Et si le débat sur la désinformation masquait une question plus fondamentale : qui devrait décider de ce que les citoyens peuvent voir, lire et partager ?

Image

Ce billet couvre les points suivants :

• Les nouvelles propositions françaises concernant la régulation de l'information en ligne
• La distinction entre désinformation, mésinformation et malinformation.
• Les conséquences possibles pour la liberté d'expression
• Le rôle des algorithmes des plateformes numériques
• Les arguments avancés en faveur d'une régulation renforcée
• Les risques potentiels pour le pluralisme démocratique.

[Entre crochets : formulation moins nuancée]

1. Une nouvelle étape dans la régulation de l'information

La France semble s'orienter vers un renforcement significatif de sa capacité à intervenir dans la circulation de l'information sur les réseaux sociaux. [La France veut récupérer le contrôle total de toutes les plateformes de réseau social.]

L'objectif officiellement affiché est de protéger les prochaines échéances électorales contre les manipulations, les campagnes coordonnées et les différentes formes d'ingérence pouvant influencer le débat public. Cette préoccupation n'est d'ailleurs pas propre à la France ; elle existe dans de nombreuses démocraties confrontées à la puissance des grandes plateformes numériques.

Toutefois, certains observateurs estiment que les instruments envisagés dépasseraient largement la simple lutte contre les fausses informations. [C'est la fin de la démocratie en France.]

Le cœur du débat ne porte donc pas uniquement sur la désinformation, mais sur la frontière entre la protection du débat démocratique et le contrôle de celui-ci.

Glossaire

Désinformation : diffusion volontaire d'informations fausses ou trompeuses.

Pluralisme : coexistence de points de vue différents dans un débat démocratique.

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2. La naissance des "zones grises" de l'information

Une évolution importante réside dans l'élargissement des catégories susceptibles d'être régulées.

Il ne s'agirait plus uniquement de sanctionner des informations manifestement fausses, mais également certains contenus considérés comme susceptibles d'induire une perception erronée du réel, même lorsqu'ils s'appuient sur des faits exacts. [Ils veulent pouvoir punir des gens qui ne mentent pas.]

Cette distinction entre désinformation, mésinformation et malinformation constitue probablement l'aspect le plus controversé des propositions.

Les critiques craignent qu'une telle évolution ne transforme progressivement un contrôle des faits en un contrôle des interprétations. [On va punir le délit d'opinion.]

Le problème juridique devient alors particulièrement complexe : lorsqu'un fait est exact mais présenté sous un angle polémique ou critique, à partir de quel moment devient-il une menace pour le débat public plutôt qu'une simple opinion ?

C'est précisément cette frontière qui suscite aujourd'hui de nombreuses interrogations.

Glossaire

Malinformation : utilisation d'informations exactes dans un contexte susceptible de produire un effet jugé nuisible.

Mésinformation : diffusion d'informations inexactes sans intention délibérée de tromper.

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3. Qui contrôle les algorithmes ?

Une autre question concerne le fonctionnement des algorithmes qui déterminent les contenus proposés aux utilisateurs.

Les auditions parlementaires semblent avoir révélé un décalage entre la logique technique des plateformes et les attentes de certains responsables politiques.

Les représentants de YouTube et de X ont rappelé que leurs systèmes recommandent principalement des contenus correspondant aux habitudes de consultation de chaque utilisateur plutôt qu'à une ligne éditoriale uniforme.

Autrement dit, deux internautes peuvent recevoir des recommandations très différentes simplement parce que leurs historiques de navigation diffèrent.

Certains parlementaires estiment néanmoins que cette personnalisation peut favoriser la constitution de bulles informationnelles et souhaitent davantage de transparence, voire davantage de contrôle.

Les critiques répondent qu'un contrôle accru des recommandations pourrait conduire, volontairement ou non, à privilégier certains discours plutôt que d'autres. [Ils veulent décider quelles vidéos seront mises en avant.]

Le débat oppose donc deux conceptions : faut-il laisser l'algorithme répondre aux préférences individuelles, ou faut-il lui imposer des critères d'intérêt général ?

Glossaire

Algorithme : ensemble de règles informatiques déterminant les contenus proposés.

Bulle informationnelle : environnement où un utilisateur voit principalement des informations conformes à ses préférences.

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4. Les médias "de confiance"

Parmi les pistes évoquées figure également la possibilité de mieux identifier certaines sources considérées comme particulièrement fiables.

Les défenseurs de cette approche estiment qu'elle aiderait les citoyens à distinguer plus facilement les contenus journalistiques des rumeurs circulant sur Internet.

Ses opposants craignent au contraire qu'un tel système crée une hiérarchie officielle de l'information. [Ils vont choisir les médias de confiance et invisibiliser les autres.]

Une interrogation apparaît alors : qui déciderait des critères permettant d'attribuer ce label ?

Même si les intentions sont présentées comme protectrices, plusieurs analystes soulignent qu'un tel mécanisme pourrait favoriser certains acteurs au détriment d'autres et réduire progressivement la diversité des opinions disponibles.

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5. Le rôle de l'ARCOM et les pouvoirs de sanction

Les propositions envisagent également un renforcement des moyens dont disposeraient les autorités de régulation.

Les partisans de cette évolution considèrent que les outils actuels sont insuffisants face à la rapidité de diffusion des campagnes de manipulation.

Les critiques estiment, à l'inverse, qu'une extension des pouvoirs de sanction pourrait créer un précédent important en permettant des interventions plus larges sur les contenus diffusés en ligne. [Donner beaucoup plus de pouvoir à l'ARCOM pour pouvoir punir même ceux qui ne mentent pas.]

L'équilibre recherché apparaît particulièrement délicat : comment protéger l'espace public contre les manipulations sans porter atteinte à la liberté d'expression ?

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6. Les arguments des deux camps

Les défenseurs de la réforme avancent plusieurs arguments.

Ils rappellent que les démocraties sont désormais confrontées à des campagnes de manipulation sophistiquées utilisant les réseaux sociaux pour influencer les opinions publiques.

Selon eux, laisser les plateformes s'autoréguler reviendrait à abandonner un élément essentiel du fonctionnement démocratique à des entreprises privées.

À l'inverse, les opposants considèrent que l'État ne devrait jamais disposer du pouvoir d'arbitrer les opinions recevables.

Ils soulignent qu'une fois les outils de contrôle créés, rien ne garantit qu'ils ne seront pas utilisés demain par des gouvernements moins respectueux des libertés publiques.

L'histoire montre que les pouvoirs exceptionnels accordés dans un contexte précis tendent souvent à perdurer bien au-delà de leur justification initiale.

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7. Une question qui dépasse la France

Ce débat dépasse largement les frontières françaises.

Le Royaume-Uni, l'Union européenne, les États-Unis, l'Australie et plusieurs autres démocraties cherchent eux aussi à concilier liberté d'expression, lutte contre les manipulations numériques et protection des processus électoraux.

Partout, la même interrogation demeure.

Jusqu'où un État démocratique peut-il intervenir dans la circulation de l'information sans devenir lui-même l'arbitre du débat public ?

Il ne s'agit pas d'une opposition simple entre liberté absolue et contrôle absolu.

Le véritable enjeu consiste à préserver un espace où les citoyens peuvent continuer à confronter des idées différentes, y compris dérangeantes, tout en limitant les campagnes délibérées de manipulation.

L'équilibre est particulièrement difficile à trouver.

Mais c'est précisément dans les périodes de tension politique que les principes de liberté d'expression et de pluralisme sont le plus sévèrement mis à l'épreuve.

Glossaire

Liberté d'expression : droit de communiquer ses opinions dans les limites fixées par la loi.

Pluralisme démocratique : existence durable d'une diversité de courants de pensée, de médias et d'opinions permettant un véritable débat public.

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